The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which combine results of polling conducted from October through December and breaks the results down by state, with gender and age cohort breakdowns presumably to follow shortly. The timing of Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership coup in late September means comparison of the previous result with the current provides a neat measure of his impact, which appears to have been particularly big in Victoria and Western Australia. Both states record eight-point shifts on two-party preferred, giving the Coalition respective leads of 51-49 and 54-46. There have also been shifts of four points in New South Wales and five points in Queensland, respectively producing Coalition leads of 53-47 and 52-48. Only in South Australia is Labor still credited with the lead, which is down from 54-46 to 52-48. Two-party tables here, primary votes here and leaders ratings here (with thanks to Leroy Lynch).
UPDATE (29/12): And now the second tranche of the results, featuring breakdowns by gender and age cohort. The results suggest Malcolm Turnbull has had less effect on the gender gap than you might have figured, and that the change had less impact on younger respondents.
MTBW@199
In Victoria, I think Labor does well with the Vietnamese and Cambodian communities and has had MPs from both.
The Chinese community seems to be split and we do well in parts of it but less well with the more affluent sections.
We do well with the Sri Lankan community and parts of the Indian community, but I think Meher Baba was correct when he recently opined that the Indians lean conservative.
Our local ALP membership includes people from all these communities and our State candidate at the last election was a fantastic young Chinese woman of Taiwanese background.
The message is to be inclusive, recruit in these communities and work to build influence in them.
[“Malcolm is a centrist on social issues. He’s an economic dry, however, like the rest of the modern Liberals.”]
Malcolm is a fraud who whispers sweet nothings and tries to be popular with everyone, yet has no real substance. Think Kevin Rudd.
I remember his time as Opposition Leader, he was useless, simply playing yes man to the Labor Party and letting some god awful legislation to pass(including scrapping the Pacific Solution).
The media are having a massive suckfest and circle-jerk around him though, which is the complete opposite of the absolutely disgusting way Tony was treated(and please save me the “poor Gillard was treated worse” horseshit… she didn’t have her own F%ck Julia Gillard T-Shirts worn by extreme leftists unreported?)
TBA, 202
There’s a difference between crude language and sexist language. If people just said “fuck you Gillard” this wouldn’t be much of a problem. However people said things like her father died of shame etc. Simple swearing on t-shirts isn’t worse than that.
bemused @201
Well done!
ICYMI
[28 DEC 2015 – 2:22PM
Ear, throat surgeries to be taken off Medicare Benefits Schedule]
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/12/28/ear-throat-surgeries-be-taken-medicare-benefits-scheme
guytaur
So what do those who have these issues do now – rob a bank?
MTBW@203
I don’t deserve credit for it, but I do enthusiastically support it.
MTBW
Its more of the same from the LNP. Destroy medicare. Different leader same goal as we knew. Now the general public is going to realise.
guytaur
I have ‘enjoyed’ a barrage of diagnostic tests over the past year and found them rather irritating (and mostly unproductive), but now I’m thankful that they were done while still on Medicare.
For the extremely dense please note this fact.
Labor is NOT changing leaders. To do so either a resignation or a rule change will happen.
Shorten is not the quitting type so we will have plenty of warning before any leadership changes in Labor.
Get over it already. Labor is going to the election with Mr Shorten love or hate the fact.
lizzie
Yes bad enough that you have to go through these things without it costing you all that you have to pay for it.
I believe by the way this latest attack on Medicare will get reversed as well. Again there are those with cancer who will be affected.
@anchinya: Sick people are not agile people #auspol #Medicare
@latikambourke: Editorial in The Age calls on PM Turnbull to grant an amnesty to detailed asylum seekers: https://t.co/vSiwGOLjyK https://t.co/rSw13iScan
I can’t understand it. Stores and small businesses are on the bones of their arse because of penalty rates yet they open on all these public holidays and are packed out with customers. It must have caused them to make big losses.
Oh wait a minute . . .
[Zanukah
Zanukah – @Zanukah
While No One Pays Attention, Turnbull And Ley Are Gutting Public Health – New Matilda http://ln.is/newmatilda.com/2015/QRzpz …]
It took Malcolm Fraser 5 years to abolish Medibank. The Co-payment in the 2014 Budget was intended as a first step in the dismantling of Medicare. Fortunately, Tony Abbott was unable to make any progress, but winding back Medicare and allowing private rent-seekers to cherry-pick profitable patients and processes remains high on the Liberals’ and their paymasters’ wish list.
bemused @ 201,
‘ I think Meher Baba was correct when he recently opined that the Indians lean conservative.’
Not in NSW they don’t. Maybe because NSW is actually a more progressive and cosmopolitan State than Victoria? 😉
Nevertheless, I know for a fact that NSW Labor is very inclusive of the Indian community, Sikhs and Hindus, and we have already elected our first Indian Australian MP, Michelle Rowland. Our outreach is broad and deep and ongoing. I will admit though that some Sikhs can be quite conservative and I have noticed some at NSW Liberal conferences. However we also have the more progressive ones at the Labor conference.
As far as the Chinese Community goes we are about 50/50 with the Liberals and the Liberals have been making a concerted effort to penetrate into the Vietnamese community. At the end of the day I think that whether they are businessmen and women plays a large part also in deciding which party to support.
lizzie,
I hope you came out the other side of the tests with a clean bill of health. Thankfully not a bill to keep your health clean.
C@tmomma@217
What you say about Indians could apply here too and I suspect the sample I have seen is biased toward the more affluent end of the spectrum.
I didn’t know Michelle Rowland was of Indian background. The name certainly gives no clue.
In Victoria, the Libs lost the Vietnamese long ago as a result of their overt racism. They seem to have realised their error and are trying to regain lost ground.
It is interesting to see the multi-cultural, multi-racial composition of unionists whenever an industrial picket line or the like is shown.
bemused,
‘ It is interesting to see the multi-cultural, multi-racial composition of unionists whenever an industrial picket line or the like is shown.’
Those people, I would hazard a guess, know better than most Laussies (a term I have heard bandied about by Indian Australians, actually, and it being short for ‘Lazy Aussies’), what living and working in a country with a weak to non-existent Union Movement is like.
bemused,
[‘ It is interesting to see the multi-cultural, multi-racial composition of unionists whenever an industrial picket line or the like is shown.’]
It might also reflect that the industries that employ a lot of immigrants tend to be the ones where screwing over workers is rife.
John Anderson
Interesting analysis, but I would be willing to bet that no matter what the final TPP outcome in the next federal election, the seat of Bendigo won’t be going to the Coalition.
We have a local member who fought the last election against a very cashed up Liberal opponent, some people say the Libs spent up to $1 million in this seat.
At this stage the Libs don’t look to have any candidates for pre selection, and in the last two and a bit years our local member has put in a lot of hard work; so much so that I expect that she there would be few better known members in their own electorate.
I think this recognition factor, plus the fact that she has outstanding staff, will be a major factor in her holding the seat.
David Rowe and Turnbull’s Christmas leftovers.
laughed at bushfire bill’s 88 – obviously not aware that Turnbull came up with that slogan.
Hopefully when Shorten goes it wont be in a January Latham dummy spit in the local park scenario. The country needs decent opposition (which it isnt getting) and Labor needs to learn to treat its failed leaders with some measure of respect. A health based resignation to spend more time with Chloe is the sensible solution.
i hope Malcolm Turnbull isnt that lucky to keep Shorten as Oppo Leader.
ESJ @ 225,
‘ Hopefully when Shorten goes it wont be in a January Latham dummy spit in the local park scenario. The country needs decent opposition (which it isnt getting)…’
What a load of tripe.
[David Rowe and Turnbull’s Christmas leftovers.
]
Who is sitting at the table?
Shorten may be many negative things, but he isn’t a Latham, else we would’ve seen some sort of evidence behind it (shaking Howard’s hand hard, that taxi driver, etc)
its of course hard to let go and walk away, but for the ALP it is essential. Believing Mr 14% is the answer is just foolish. Shorten should resign – hopefully people close to him will tell him to go without too much rancour. There can be a splendid future as a cabinet minister or the like if he goes without too much fuss.
there are many parallels with Latham and Shorten. Lack of life experience and resilience tends to show through in Opposition Leaders without hinterland. Sadly both had life experience which amounted to be Labor party staffers and not much else since their early 20’s and where overwhelmed by the job.
ESJ
I assume you haven’t read any previous posts on this matter.
The scuttlebutt is that di Natale is to be knighted for services to the Liberal Party in the New Year’s honour lists.
ESJ – full of tripe and can’t read a number. Try 87.
Boerwar:
😆
FMD!!!
The relevance deprivation therapy beagle is back!!
why the hostility to di natale – hes doing what Labor ought to be doing.
Venal petty Gary – you never change.
Nicholas and Airlines,
Dr Kevin Bonham on Mackerras and Senate electoral reforms
Kevin Bonham: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/12/mackerras-piece-misleading-on-senate.html
[As noted in the last part of my multi-volume series about people being Wrong On The Internet about Senate reform, nothing has happened publicly on this issue for some time. But erroneous op-eds attacking the JSCEM-proposed model continue to appear in the media now and then, and the latest to muddy the waters (again) is Malcolm Mackerras in the Canberra Times.
While the consensus of psephologists Australia-wide favours scrapping the current Group Ticket preferencing system that has been gamed to death by preference-harvesters and other exploiters of confusing ballot papers (while retaining above-the-line voting for one or more parties), Mackerras has held out against this from the start. Initially he argued that it would be acceptable to allow voters to stop after filling in 15 boxes below the line. As the debate has progressed he has shifted to supporting a requirement for a minimum of six boxes below the line, which he now describes as “the easy and right thing” to do.]
[Venal petty Gary – you never change.]
When was the last time I was petty to you? Mind you with the rot you’re coming out with at the moment you deserve it.
The consistency of the polling numbers don’t lie.
Shorten is as unwanted as a leader as Abbott was when he was sacked.
no Rex its just a mirage, over that next hill lies nirvana!
I think I’ll leave the Shorten haters to it. Go for your lives.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-growing-assault-on-the-democratic-rights-of-australians-20151223-gltv70.html
[This year has borne out former prime minister Tony Abbott’s prediction that “for some time to come, the delicate balance between freedom and security may have to shift”. Government agencies can now access the metadata of every person, journalists can be jailed for reporting on matters of public interest and Australians can be banished after having their citizenship revoked. This has led one Liberal MP, Andrew Nikolic, to suggest that the idea of protecting civil liberties in the context of national security has become “redundant”.
This shift by the Coalition is more than just an example of changing political priorities. Indeed, the same change has been evident in Labor, which has voted for every one of the government’s national security measures. Something deeper and more troubling is at work.]
The scuttlebutt is that Shorten is to be knighted for services to the Liberal Party in the New Year’s honour lists.
[why the hostility to di natale – hes doing what Labor ought to be doing.]
Cognitive dissonance 😉
but on the plus side I’ve always enjoyed your blind parroting of the ‘moscow’ party line gary, seems like yesterday you were singing the praises of rudd, gillard , rudd at the appropriate time of course.
Well 52-48 for the LNP would warm the hearts of many on that side of politics.
What surprises me, though, given the screen star billing Malcolm has, the polls are not 60-40.
Turnbull seems to have returned some sense of civility to politics by just not being Tony Abbott – for which most of us are pleased to a greater or lesser extent.
So far, apart from a lot of good words to lots of people who needed a bit of cheer up, Turnbull has done not much at all.
The big BUT comes in 2016 with just so many nasty vote-losing things to have to contemplate.
The Get Bill mob become more strident by the day – but if Labor cannot win with Shorten, I don’t think he should cop the blame for any loss.
Just what credibility would Labor have in changing leaders over the next period leading to an election?
For better/for worst is has to be Bill.
What was the situation in Queensland before Newman went? A Labor Opposition with not enough members to fill a mini-bus.
What was the name of the LOTO in Queensland? Some funny sounding/looking name.
Not to worry, she could never become Premier could she?
In all seriousness though I think the Greens leader should be given the opportunity to participate in leader debates. The more chance voters have to see that Di Natale is just as hollow as everyone else, the better.
Funny the trolls (including the non-trolls on PB) on PB are bashing shorten when they should be bashing the liberals for screwing everyone.
love your zeal zoidy, keep it up!
peg
let’s just ignore the fact that Labor successfully amended most of that legislation in exchange for their vote – which was Di Natale’s justification for voting with the Liberals on other issues.
As has been the case for the last few decades, the political duopoly will do everything in their power to ensure Di Natale is not included in any pre-election leaders’ debate