Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Huge gains in Victoria have provided the main impetus for the Coalition’s poll revival under Malcolm Turnbull, according to the latest Newspoll state breakdowns.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which combine results of polling conducted from October through December and breaks the results down by state, with gender and age cohort breakdowns presumably to follow shortly. The timing of Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership coup in late September means comparison of the previous result with the current provides a neat measure of his impact, which appears to have been particularly big in Victoria and Western Australia. Both states record eight-point shifts on two-party preferred, giving the Coalition respective leads of 51-49 and 54-46. There have also been shifts of four points in New South Wales and five points in Queensland, respectively producing Coalition leads of 53-47 and 52-48. Only in South Australia is Labor still credited with the lead, which is down from 54-46 to 52-48. Two-party tables here, primary votes here and leaders ratings here (with thanks to Leroy Lynch).

UPDATE (29/12): And now the second tranche of the results, featuring breakdowns by gender and age cohort. The results suggest Malcolm Turnbull has had less effect on the gender gap than you might have figured, and that the change had less impact on younger respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,470 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. [“There has been no cut to the $ value of the medicare rebate for pap tests. There has been a removal of the incentive payments for path companies to bulk bill.

    This, according to pathology companies, will result in patients being charged.”]

    The Bulk Billing incentive payment was introduced by the Labor Government to increase the amount of pathology firms bulk billing.

    But the amount of firms bulk billing didn’t increase. They just took the extra money.

    Hence, Labor wasted our money for NOTHING. They spent extra money and got no extra results. The lies from the left need to stop.

  2. The BOM assessment that Sydney and its surrounds had only a 35% chance of exceeding its January median rainfall was a little conservative.

  3. Not her fault she’s attractive and she wouldn’t last if looks were all she had.

    Never said anything is her fault.

    The point is that networks systematically recruit extremely good-looking women for onscreen roles, ignoring plain women with better subject knowledge and interviewing skills, and then pretend that they are against the sexualization of women.

  4. Steve777@5244

    Re the Dick Smith saga:

    …Forager Funds Management chief investment officer, Steve Johnson, told ABC Radio on Wednesday that putting the company into receivership just after Christmas could have been a strategic move by the banks.

    “It’s almost impossible for a retailer to not have any money after Christmas,” he said.

    “My guess is that the banks have seen that cash in the bank and gone well if we put it into receivership now, then that cash and that gift card money, before people go and spend it, is going to be ours to grab, rather than the suppliers getting paid first.”


    The Banks are such fine Corporate citizens.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/dick-smith-accused-of-pumping-up-gift-voucher-sales-20160105-gm0432.html#ixzz3wQscrFb0
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

    Well Sen X has wasted no time in grandstanding over it.

    But the whole affair stinks from beginning to end and that gift card strategy is straight out theft.

  5. [The Bulk Billing incentive payment was introduced by the Labor Government to increase the amount of pathology firms bulk billing.]

    Not true, it was to stop the bulk billing rate from falling, it worked. In imaging it did increase the bulk billing rate.

    Please check the facts before entering rant mode.

  6. Nicholas@5253

    Not her fault she’s attractive and she wouldn’t last if looks were all she had.


    Never said anything is her fault.

    The point is that networks systematically recruit extremely good-looking women for onscreen roles, ignoring plain women with better subject knowledge and interviewing skills, and then pretend that they are against the sexualization of women.

    There are other opportunities available.

    Jon Faine on ABC 774 has often mentioned that he has a ‘great face for radio’. 😛

  7. Nicholas

    [The point is that networks systematically recruit extremely good-looking women for onscreen roles, ignoring plain women with better subject knowledge and interviewing skills, and then pretend that they are against the sexualization of women.]

    Unfortunately, I agree.

    BTW, this was the subject of a (very funny) Frontline episode – the ABC comedy with Rob Sitch. The ‘blokey/chicky’ thing I think it was called.

  8. ru@5247: They don’t – obedience of fools and guidance of the wise etc.
    The PBS requirement for authority for valacyclovir is for “suspected” disseminated HSV or VZV, not proven. The referral requirements are 2 decades out of date – and only about partially funding a relatively expensive drug (valacyclovir, with twice daily dosing) over a cheaper but inconvenient drug (acyclovir, with (theoretically) 5 times daily dosing). Health Economics is an oxymoron.

  9. The BOM assessment that Sydney and its surrounds had only a 35% chance of exceeding its January median rainfall was a little conservative.

    Sydney passed its January average rainfall (102 mm) shortly after 9:00 this morning. It passed the median (80 mm) in the small hours this morning.

    And it’s still bucketing down. We haven’t seen the Sun since Sunday norning, apart from a couple of short sunny breaks on Monday.

  10. So, on the NBN.

    One of the benefits touted of a FTTH network is its resilience during times of disaster…like floods.

    http://www.telecompaper.com/news/cityfibre-metro-network-unaffected-by-flooding-in-york–1121375

    [ CityFibre engineering director John Franklin told ISPreview, “All our pure fibre networks are designed and built to ensure that they are at minimal risk of failure due to flooding. By ensuring no active components are located outside the customer premises and our exchanges, the remaining fibre components are unaffected by water ingress and continue to provide critical services when submerged in flood waters.”

    BT’s must larger local phone and broadband infrastructure was badly affected from the River Ouse breaking its banks in the last week of December, leaving many premises underwater. ]

    Apparently the FTTH infrastructure is running in Newcastle?

    Now i realise that people there probably have more important issues to think about right at the moment than whether or not their internet connection has failed, but would be interested to hear if anyone has any info on how the NBN infrastructure is holding up there??

  11. In fact the last time we saw the Sun was Saturday lunch time, apart from those short breaks on Monday. Easy to get the days mixed up in the Silly Season.

  12. [The point is that networks systematically recruit extremely good-looking women for onscreen roles, ignoring plain women with better subject knowledge and interviewing skills, and then pretend that they are against the sexualization of women.]

    Making this point at most times is admirable if it is correct. There is evidence that tv stations do include inappropriate criteria in their selection process that would tend to exclude as good or better journalists. This should not be confused with the claim (for which there is no actual evidence) that a particular professional journalist wouldn’t have got a job on merit.

    Where the conversation is properly about the nasty attack and the attacker raising the issue can only be an implied criticism of the victim. It is not, and cannot be in context, an unrelated interesting observation. In addition to an implicit attack on the victim (the line to explicit criticism of Ms McLoughlin was repeatedly crossed) it is effectively a defence of the offender.

    You can’t undo these implications by saying look Gayle crossed the line but we should really be focusing on the fact Ms McLaughlin is useless was employed for the wrong reasons and should be replaced.

  13. [The point is that networks systematically recruit extremely good-looking women for onscreen roles, ignoring plain women with better subject knowledge and interviewing skills, and then pretend that they are against the sexualization of women.]

    This may well be true. But picking on a good looking woman who has very good subject knowledge AND interviewing skills in order to make the point is not the way to go if you want to make that point. And of all forms of cricket, Big Bash League is the one where very good subject knowledge is of the least value. It’s entertainment and commentators who are strong on bringing out the entertainment aspect will be valued over very sophisticated capacity to understand the smallest aspects of the game.

  14. Nicholas@5259: it sounds to me as if the naval officer in question was using an official twitter account to post her own political opinions. Which is definitely not on IMO whether she is a Muslim, Buddhist, Scientologist or Atheist.

  15. TPOF@5268

    The point is that networks systematically recruit extremely good-looking women for onscreen roles, ignoring plain women with better subject knowledge and interviewing skills, and then pretend that they are against the sexualization of women.


    This may well be true. But picking on a good looking woman who has very good subject knowledge AND interviewing skills in order to make the point is not the way to go if you want to make that point. And of all forms of cricket, Big Bash League is the one where very good subject knowledge is of the least value. It’s entertainment and commentators who are strong on bringing out the entertainment aspect will be valued over very sophisticated capacity to understand the smallest aspects of the game.

    TV is a visual medium and it is not at all unreasonable for TV networks to hire presenters, both male and female, who have a good on-air appearance, personality and voice.

    Radio can relax the physical appearance but the voice then assumes greater importance as does the non-visual manifestations of personality.

    None of this is surprising or unreasonable. Attractive morons would never make it.

  16. WWP @ 5266

    I agree entirely. I worry, though, that the interviewer concerned will be forever remembered more in the public’s mind and the tv industry for Gayle’s behaviour than for her own professional performance. I suspect she worries about that too, which is why she wants to move on. I think I’ll do the same at this point.

  17. meher baba@5269

    Nicholas@5259: it sounds to me as if the naval officer in question was using an official twitter account to post her own political opinions. Which is definitely not on IMO whether she is a Muslim, Buddhist, Scientologist or Atheist.

    Or Green. 😆

  18. I am glad you said that – “to see his smile was to gaze into the eyes of the Valkyrie”
    IWe used to interact a little and I greatly admired him but haven’t seen him for 20 years. I hate to ask but is he still with us?

  19. Another womans viewpoint :

    ‘It’s empowering when blokes grab me on the arse’

    Watching Chris Gayle, I didn’t see a powerful bloke preying on a weak woman. I saw the classic guy who’s drunk his own Kool-Aid and has the mistaken belief that he makes all women giddily nervous.

    Guys like this get some ridiculous pleasure out of making a woman feel uncomfortable and it’s not predatory — it’s pathetic.

    I’ve met a million of these blokes in my career and when I watched Mel on the receiving end of that comment, I was disappointed. Not because of what Chris Gayle said but because she missed a golden opportunity to say something back that would mean he’d never make that same mistake again.

    http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/its-empowering-when-blokes-grab-me-on-the-arse/news-story/bd5fcd95ffb3c06e15d63116b060a9e8

  20. [I suspect she worries about that too, which is why she wants to move on. I think I’ll do the same at this point.]

    Yes it would be better for her and her career if it did just go away.

    It would be better for other cricket journalists if Chris got a very clear message from the public that we find it unacceptable. I look forward to booing him loudly.

    His behaviour is unlikely to be changed by ‘oh you naughty boy but look over there she is useless and should be replaced’. Well it might be changed – he might do it more.

  21. Ru

    Valcyclovir is very expensive so it’s only available if an ID specialist prescribes it. There are quite a few anti microbial agents like that. It’s a way to keep costs down and rationalise drug use.

  22. When someone is bullied and humiliated it is always better if they have a retort or reply that flaws the bully and makes them retreat in total defeat never to bully again.

    Soon as you think about the context and the reality it will be Ms McLaughlin’s role to interview this clown again, and if you listen to and understand Gayle’s power in the game, such that Chris Rogers was wary of it, it seems pretty obvious to me that her actual response was the most professional possible while on live TV.

    She also had to make her response in the knowledge he dud it often and got away with it, and before she knew she’d have the support of her employer.

  23. Rex

    There are larger issues involved than this one individual. Commercial sport and broadcasting in general does far more sexualization of women than one boorish cricketer ever could. Chris Gayle sexualizes women one-on-one, face-to-face. Commercial sport sexualizes women on an industrial scale. It would be preferable if we didn’t let Channel Ten exploit incidents like this to whitewash their own much larger sins. Penalize Chris Gayle by all means but don’t let Channel Ten play the role of White Knight on this issue.

  24. OC@5277: Yes, though he’s slowing down a bit, and would make a terrifyingly complex long case in the FRACP clinical exam – even if he wasn’t the examiner.

  25. Has anyone mentioned that North Korea has just set off its first hydrogen bomb?

    Apparently caused a 5.1 earthquake in the area.

  26. Bushfire Bill@5285

    Has anyone mentioned that North Korea has just set off its first hydrogen bomb?

    Apparently caused a 5.1 earthquake in the area.

    Rex mentioned it earlier, but being Rex I did not believe until it was confirmed on the news.

  27. Plain-looking men are not locked out of onscreen roles. Heck, you can look like Jabba the Hutt and get an onscreen role as a Press Gallery Stenographer.

    If you just look at cricket – Ian Healey, Michael Slater, Mark Taylor are three plain-looking men with poor interviewing skills and a nasty habit of mistaking inside jokes for interesting commentary.

    Women in broadcasting are disproportionately valued for their appearance. They are sexualized. There are hardly any plain-looking women in onscreen roles. Commercial sport does this on an industrial scale. Let’s not let the perpetrators off the hook because there is a delightfully boorish individual whom everyone can comfortably condemn without having to examine their own decisions. There is a bigger picture here and Channel Ten are absolutely delighted that most people are missing it.

  28. Nicholas@5288

    Plain-looking men are not locked out of onscreen roles. Heck, you can look like Jabba the Hutt and get an onscreen role as a Press Gallery Stenographer.

    If you just look at cricket – Ian Healey, Michael Slater, Mark Taylor are three plain-looking men with poor interviewing skills and a nasty habit of mistaking inside jokes for interesting commentary.

    Women in broadcasting are disproportionately valued for their appearance. They are sexualized. There are hardly any plain-looking women in onscreen roles. Commercial sport does this on an industrial scale. Let’s not let the perpetrators off the hook because there is a delightfully boorish individual whom everyone can comfortably condemn without having to examine their own decisions. There is a bigger picture here and Channel Ten are absolutely delighted that most people are missing it.

    I can think of a few women who appear on TV that would not win a beauty pageant. But they have specialised roles where other skills and abilities rate much higher.

  29. meher

    The Chief of Navy could have just instructed the captain to refrain from posting about the Liberty Alliance. Instead he pulls the whole Twitter account because the right-wing troll wheel squeaked the loudest.

  30. All women and men employed by commercial TV stations for on air roles have to be part of the beautiful people set no exceptions.

    Expert commentators may get promoted to hosts, but they need to be successful in other careers first and they always have a co-host.

  31. poroti@5292

    Bushfire Bill

    I look forward to seeing how their state TV presenter announced it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7J2Nnl7Ano

    .
    US intelligence up to the mark again it seems . NOT.

    North Korea’s H-bomb claim dismissed by US

    10 December 2015

    The White House has dismissed a suggestion by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that his country possesses a hydrogen bomb


    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35066203

    It could simply be an atomic bomb.

    We will have to wait for scientific data to either confirm or refute North Korean claims.

  32. Agree Zoomster at 5293.
    “So now we’re blaming the victim because she should have had a ready retort at hand?”

    There are some posters here with attitudes not too far removed from those of Gayle, Briggs and co.

  33. [“Not true, it was to stop the bulk billing rate from falling, it worked. In imaging it did increase the bulk billing rate.”]

    Why would bulk billing rates fall when the historical record is of them increasing?

    They actually increased significantly more under the Howard Government than they ever did under Labor… even with the bribes.

  34. I asked it as a question, because it isn’t an issue I’m really following, and I could be misunderstanding people’s posts.

    If there’s no victim blaming going on, fine, but how about explaining why I’ve got the wrong end of the stick?

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