BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

A particularly strong result from ReachTEL further drives up the Coalition’s lead in this week’s poll aggregate reading, which even puts the Coalition ahead on the seat projection in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been yo-yoing from one week to the next recently, and this week it’s the turn of an upswing for the Coalition, whose lead blows out nearly a full point to 54.5-45.5 on the back of a strong result in the ReachTEL poll conducted late last week. However, this only translates into a single gain on the seat projection – in Victoria, where the Coalition is now credited with more seats than Labor for the first time in living memory. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Also:

• Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Australian Workers Union official Misha Zelinsky has abandoned a plan to challenge the Labor preselection of Sharon Bird, member for the Illawarra region seat of Cunningham. The report says Bird had been imperilled by the recently published draft redistribution, which moved into the electorate branches controlled by state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, a foe of Bird’s. Zelinsky was reportedly persuaded to withdraw by the party’s state secretary, Jamie Clements, acting on the urging of Bill Shorten.

• I had a piece in Crikey today on Labor’s developing preselection imbroglio in the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills, which will be vacated at the next election by the retirement of Kelvin Thomson. Below is a graphic I prepared for the piece that didn’t get a run.

2015-12-02 wills votes and demographics

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,375 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 5 of 48
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  1. GG

    Now I am pointi g it out for the THIRD time this morning. In Qld the Libs and the Nats are ONE party (LNP). No three cornered contests. The main opponent of the merger was MAL BROUGH.

    I would say this whole thing is about getting McFarlane back in Cabinet to replace Qlder Brough. Also keeps the Nats sane after Truss goes. Mal had to let McFarlane go because he probably used age as his reason for unloading Abetz and Andrews. However if McFarlane is nominated by the Nats then Mal can put a good minister back into Cabinet without a problem. Win for Mal, win for McFarlane and win for the Nationals.

  2. [Sounds easy when you say it. Bet it turns into a massive shit fight if the try it in reality.]

    It would be a massive problem if Brough had not dug himself an enormous hole. However, as Brough is looking seriously untenable, then it is a viable option. It all might happen on a nice quiet date – anywhere between 23 December and 15 January.

  4. [Saying, there is nothing to see here is bollocks.]

    I don’t know where I’ve ever said that. BBS might think so, but I certainly disagree. This is a huge snub to Turnbull and adds a nice extra steamer onto his shit sandwich of a week.

    But there can’t be three cornered contests in Qld unless the LNP split.

  5. C@tmomma @ 199

    Brough’s goods might be just too damaged for him to be of any potential danger in future. Who knows – he may not be a candidate in 2016.

  6. US suffers more massacres than days in the year

    The San Bernardino massacre, in which 14 people were killed, is the 355th in just 336 days – the 354th having occurred earlier today in Savannah, Georgia, in which four people were shot and one killed.

    “We have a pattern now of mass shootings in this country that has no parallel anywhere else in the world,” Mr Obama said today.

    Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/world/2015/12/03/13/00/us-suffers-more-massacres-than-days-in-the-year#uvVjHi2R36c8LJUT.99

  7. poroti

    [ But but but the interviewer speaking to Albo on RN this morning said “exports are going gangbusters” . ]

    Yes, exports from other countries to Australia are indeed going gangbusters under this government.

  8. Whatever the current marriage of convenience that is in place in Queensland between the Nats and the Libs is irrelevant. These types of arrangement have been broken before.

    If Turnbull were to refuse MacFarlane become part of his Ministry, then the NATS would either have to lump it or break the coalition.

    Were that to happen, Federal Members from Queensland would have to make a decision on which side of the Parliament they are sitting.

  9. Particularly if Pyne goes too as well he may in this affair. McFarlane gets his old job back!!!!

    I think Brough is gone, Pyne possibly. Malcolm can intervene to save Wyatt Roy. He was young (think about the stupid things you did in Young Labor) – and because he is a Sunshine Coast boy, very much dominated by Brough (Longman was Brough’s seat). He probably knows Ashby too from childhood. So the public will expect Mal to save the baby. Prissy on the otherhand might be harder to save.

    Cooment to gerbil “NO I am bloody not”

  10. [Ah! However, would you want to be the PM who spurned Mal Brough & replaced him with Ian Macfarlane? I hear it was Brough in the party room who led the destabilisation of Tony Abbott. He could do the same to Turnbull and I don’t doubt Abbott would appreciate the use of his skill set.]

    Precisely. Self interest makes strange allies. That Tool Fitzhunter went from get Rudd when he had to go over his Chinese friend, then went all get Gillard when she (correctly) decided he was lucky to be given the whip’s job.

    Brough could very, very easily go from tearing Abbott down for Turnbull to tearing Turnbull down for Abbott or some other proxy. You can bet the promise of a Cabinet spot had far more to do with Brough’s enthusiasm for the other Mal than anything else. This is surely 90% of the reason Brough isn’t gone already.

  11. [ This is a huge snub to Turnbull and adds a nice extra steamer onto his shit sandwich of a week. ]

    Rats deserting sinking ship?? 🙂

    And, loyal 1st mate Bishop losing authority, Purser Mal turning out very dodgy and leading Cabin Boy Roy astray, Quartermaster Pyne under a cloud…….

    Capn Mal not conning a happy ship at the moment. 🙂

  12. [adds a nice extra steamer onto his shit sandwich of a week.]

    And also distracts from Brough – the public and media attention only extends to one sandwich at a time. It might be the end of the honeymoon – but the PM is still riding high. Issues tend to be magnified when a government is doing badly.

  13. [7:30 on Brough/Ashby very piss weak last night.]

    Didn’t watch, but as expected, although we were told that they had ‘something up their sleeve’.

    I was waiting for bemused, on ABCwatch, to tell us that it was the most revealing and incisive piece of journalism to ever hit the airwaves.

    The ABC is always pissweak when it comes to the Libs, having expended all its energy on Terror!!!!, Labor turmoil and the price of chocolate biscuits.

  17. [Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust 5m5 minutes ago
    .@SteveCiobo says he expects there will be no reshuffle until @warrentrussmp outlines future plans]

  18. imacca,

    Turnbull may choose not to waste this current crisis.

    He may decide the time is now to purge the Libs of the influence of the tea Party conservatives that seem to think they run the show.

    If he has to put up with leaks, party resignations and defections and open defiance of his agenda by seniors of his back bench “team” he might be better of going to the voters sooner than later.

  20. GG

    Stop showing you ignorance. The LNP arrangement is now fixed in stone in Qld. The only person likely to LEAVE is Brough who does not like the Nationals. Some Liberals feel that the merger was a Nationals take over. Most of these are the Turnbull supporters – Roy, Prentice, Brough, Gambaro. The Liberals who are happiest in the merged LNP are the Abbott RWNJ – Buckoltz, Christiansen etc.

    To explain for you Southerners, in Qld the Liberals only ever had support in the SEQ, mostly the Gold Coast and Sunshine coast and a few seats in Brisbane. The rest of the state is Nationals land. When the merger happened at state level, they appointed Newman, which was supposed to make the SEQ Liberals happy. However the disater than was Newman has put the old Nationals firmly back in the driving seat.

  21. Today’s Crikey editorial:

    Naively, the Greens claim that this compromise “will help build momentum to consign them [the exemption provisions] to the scrap heap” and promise they will “work with Labor and the cross-bench to bring the remaining Grandfathering provisions before a senate inquiry.”

    Those benefiting from the Greens’ decision today have little to fear from a Senate inquiry. What they feared was the government, faced with not having its own legislation being passed by the Senate, being forced to remove these outdated provisions. Fortunately for these secretive high-wealth individuals and big companies, the Greens have let them — and the government — off the hook.

    Plainly, under Richard Di Natale, the Greens are looking for greater parliamentary relevance by offering compromises with the Coalition. Whether that strategy appeals to the party’s base or not remains to be seen. But in this case, the search for relevance has yielded a poor policy outcome — perpetuating a system that voters increasingly see as unfair.

  25. If this is all some brilliant Mal play to dump Brough and bring back Chainsaw then Ciobo certainly didn’t get the memo.

    [This is about Ian Macfarlane serving his own interests.]

    If Qld LNP Liberals are jumping ship to increase their chances of a ministry it is going to piss off both the already Nats who see their chances decrease with greater (and almost certainly smarter) competition, as well as pissing off the Libs who don’t jump but wait patiently to get noticed for a promotion.

    This sort of stuff isn’t good for harmony at all. It a serious outbreak of disunity and severely undermines Turnbull as well as reminding everyone of the rabble that was supposedly reformed when he took over. Everyone in Labor will be enjoying their Christmas drinks just that little bit more after this week.

  28. [Sky News Australia
    Sky News Australia – Verified account ‏@SkyNewsAust

    This is about @IanMacfarlaneMP trying to get back into the ministry and nothing else says @SteveCiobo #auspol
    6:40 PM – 2 Dec 2015
    2 RETWEETS1 LIKE]

  30. Player one

    I was mere child during the watergate scandal. 😀

    I guess Nixon’s imagery has been shown so many times over the years, it stuck in the mind

  31. GG

    Yes, coming to this blog and reading posts by you really gives me unviversity qulifications in posts by the ingorant and angry.

  35. [ victoria

    Posted Thursday, December 3, 2015 at 1:51 pm | Permalink

    Fess

    Silly me. I wasnt thinking along those lines. His pose reminded me of Richard Nixon!

    ]

    Yes and combine it with the famous Nixon quote ” I am not a crook “

  37. [Plainly, under Richard Di Natale, the Greens are looking for greater parliamentary relevance by offering compromises with the Coalition. Whether that strategy appeals to the party’s base or not remains to be seen. But in this case, the search for relevance has yielded a poor policy outcome — perpetuating a system that voters increasingly see as unfair.]

    I make no judgement on the the last sentence (ie if the policy outcome is a poor as made out), but the rest is spot on. Di Natale is looking to take the Greens in a different direction to their ‘purity is all’ past and more into being the deal makers a la Meg Lees’ Democrats. There are potential pros and cons to that decision that will be fascinating to see play out.

    Perhaps remaining utterly uncompromising on asylum policy (essentially forcing Labor to accept the Libs policy holus bolus) will be enough to keep the ‘we vote green because we don’t do dirty deals’ crowd on side.

  39. One of the shooters in San Bernardino was female. I can’t remember a female rampage killer before.

    Something about this one is quite different to the usual spree killings.

  42. The Greens brilliant and diabolical plan to seize government:

    First, give Joe Hockey and Abbott an unlimited credit card in the expectation that their incompetence will result in an unservicable level of debt.
    Second, ensure the country collects insufficient tax by doing a deal with ex Merchant Banker and offshore tax haven user Malcolm Turnbull to exempt the wealthy from tax scrutiny.
    Third, after hopefully creating the same dilemma in Australia as that faced by Greece, they get themselves elected by copying the platform of the Greek Syriza party.

  45. phoenix

    Hopefully Brough will also do a Nixon “You don’t have Nixon to kick around any more, because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference”

    .
    Now for the spring chickens ,the Nixon “pose”

  47. [Margo Kingston
    Margo Kingston – Verified account ‏@margokingston1

    #qt #Ashbygate Did Brough help draft instructions from Roy to Ashby to procure diary? Pyne tries to shut it down.
    7:08 PM – 2 Dec 2015]

  50. [ poroti

    Posted Thursday, December 3, 2015 at 2:09 pm | Permalink

    phoenix

    Hopefully Brough will also do a Nixon “You don’t have Nixon to kick around any more, because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference”

    .
    Now for the spring chickens ,the Nixon “pose”

    ]

    For those who remember the times and characters :

    Nixon’s the kind of guy that if you were drowning 50 feet off shore, he’d throw you a 30 foot rope; then Kissinger would go on TV the next night and say that the President had met you more than half-way.

    Washington couldn’t tell a lie, Nixon couldn’t tell the truth, and Reagan couldn’t tell the difference.

    History buffs probably noted the reunion at a Washington party a few weeks ago of three ex-presidents: Carter, Ford, and Nixon – See No Evil, Hear No Evil, and Evil.

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