BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

A particularly strong result from ReachTEL further drives up the Coalition’s lead in this week’s poll aggregate reading, which even puts the Coalition ahead on the seat projection in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been yo-yoing from one week to the next recently, and this week it’s the turn of an upswing for the Coalition, whose lead blows out nearly a full point to 54.5-45.5 on the back of a strong result in the ReachTEL poll conducted late last week. However, this only translates into a single gain on the seat projection – in Victoria, where the Coalition is now credited with more seats than Labor for the first time in living memory. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Also:

Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Australian Workers Union official Misha Zelinsky has abandoned a plan to challenge the Labor preselection of Sharon Bird, member for the Illawarra region seat of Cunningham. The report says Bird had been imperilled by the recently published draft redistribution, which moved into the electorate branches controlled by state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, a foe of Bird’s. Zelinsky was reportedly persuaded to withdraw by the party’s state secretary, Jamie Clements, acting on the urging of Bill Shorten.

• I had a piece in Crikey today on Labor’s developing preselection imbroglio in the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills, which will be vacated at the next election by the retirement of Kelvin Thomson. Below is a graphic I prepared for the piece that didn’t get a run.

2015-12-02 wills votes and demographics

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,375 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  1. From the SMH article:

    [Barnaby Joyce, leader of the Nationals in the Senate, needs to tread carefully after Ian Macfarlane’s switch.]

    Proofreading is Key.

  2. Player One – I have deep reservations about the ‘basic income’ concept. As far as I can tell, it will increase inequality rather than decrease it. For example a person who is disabled and cannot work will be paid the same as someone without a disability and who can work. Equally, so will a single parent receive the same amount as a person with no kids. Even worse, the very rich will receive the same income as the very poor.

    I don’t understand why bureaucratic complexity automatically is a bad thing. Yes waste can and does occur, and reform should take place to minimise it, but in an equitable society, the most effort should be expended to help the most vulnerable first.

  3. [On a lighter note, Tony Abbott knows how to use Gumtree! (Well, Margie does):]

    I saw that on Facebook earlier. And speaking of dingoes and babies there’s a delightful video doing the rounds on Facebook of a dingo pet playing with a baby on the floor of a house. Don’t know if this can be viewed by just anyone, but here it is:
    https://www.facebook.com/donna.proctor.3760/videos/1532540750399900/?pnref=story

    Not sure if I’d let a dog of mine do that to a baby or a child, but it’s kinda sweet regardless.

  4. JimmyDoyle

    [ Player One – I have deep reservations about the ‘basic income’ concept. As far as I can tell, it will increase inequality rather than decrease it. For example a person who is disabled and cannot work will be paid the same as someone without a disability and who can work. … ]

    That depends on the implementation details, which would be so far above Cranky’s head that I didn’t even bother raising them.

    But (put very simply) what ‘basic income’ really does is remove both the “coercive” aspects of employment and the “punitive” aspects of social security. It gives anyone who can work the ability to work – to their level of ability or their level of desire, since they no longer need to work so just to survive. In that sense, it can be an absolute boon to the less-abled.

  5. For what it is worth:

    I once knew Ian Baker’s junior in the Chamberlain prosecution. He believed that the case was weak and Lindy would be acquitted until she insisted on testifying. Her performance in the stand was so odd that the jury was swayed. Her defence team tried to stop her goving evidence but she had the light of God (admittedly the SDA one) in her eyes.

  6. [Credlin just has to be a reincarnation of Rasputin]

    Hmmmm

    [And then you had to bring up reincarnation
    Over a couple of beers the other night
    And now I’m serving time for mistakes
    Made by another in another life time

    (Chorus) How long ’til my soul gets it right
    Can any human being ever reach that kind of light
    I call on the resting soul of Galileo king of night vision
    King of insight]

  7. [
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, December 7, 2015 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    I am not arguing about the validity of her conviction. I am saying why I think she probably did it.
    ]
    Probable the same statistics that led to the stretching of the case and the failure to give up.

  8. [2355
    Player One
    But (put very simply) what ‘basic income’ really does is remove both the “coercive” aspects of employment and the “punitive” aspects of social security.
    ]

    I do like that aspect of basic income, but what do you do with the exceptions who are looked after much better in the current system? The severely disabled, full-time carers, single parents etc? I don’t think bureaucratic simplicity necessarily equals more equitable outcomes.

  9. [Obama called ISIS a Death Cult. He’s lost all the Anti-Abbott crowd now.]

    Yeah the most powerful man in the world and he is feeling desperate and impotent. The name calling is a dead give away. Abbott on the other hand didn’t realise he was useless and impotent, he wasn’t smart enough to know it.

  10. [If you look at all the babies murdered in the world, mothers outweight dingos as the murderer by a few hundred thousand to either zero or one.]

    Now let’s narrow that down to babies being murdered within proximity of dingos, so that the statistic means something.

  11. Twitter right winger reports that Steve Price on 2GB says Turnbull has “taken a hit on Newspoll.” No idea if that means voting intention, or just preferred PM. Waiting for confirmation though, it was vague.

  12. confessions

    Growing up on a farm and seeing the sort of crap dogs got into , sometimes literally crap , made their licking faces a fairly early entry on my list of “Ewwwwww”.

  13. [Twitter right winger reports that Steve Price on 2GB says Turnbull has “taken a hit on Newspoll.”]

    No ‘wow’ from PvO?

  14. [If you look at all the babies murdered in the world, mothers outweight dingos as the murderer by a few hundred thousand to either zero or one.]

    There are recorded dingo attacks on children, including children less than 18 months old. There is at least on reported attack where a 13 month old was dragged away by a dingo, but only a short distance before the father intervened. Aboriginal stories warning children not to stray too far from camp because dingoes might attack them are common. While mothers are known to murder their children the idea that dingoes will attack kids is not unreasonable.

    There are dingoes on this property and they sometimes come around the house looking for water and (believe it or not) avocados. There is no way i’d trust them around my kids till the kids are at least 10 years old or capable of fighting back.

    During the Chamberlain trial my parents followed it closely. Dad being a lawyer, mum a scientist who became a teacher. Mum explained what the evidence actually meant to dad who then gave his opinions on the legal implications of it. As the trial went on mum got increasingly frustrated at the bullshit passed off as scientific evidence.

    According to them the conviction was wrong as the evidence presented didn’t support her conviction. It was very interesting to hear their opinions in contrast to the rest of the country, especially after LC was convicted.

  15. JimmyDoyle

    [ I do like that aspect of basic income, but what do you do with the exceptions who are looked after much better in the current system? ]

    Well, I would question how many would really consider themselves to be ‘looked after much better in the current system’, but I do agree that it is the handling of the exceptional cases that makes the ‘basic income’ idea complex to implement in reality.

    It comes down to how much of your GDP you want to preserve for ‘special cases’ rather than distributing it equally as part of the ‘basic income’. This is largely up to us to decide as a society – but it will always mean that a comparatively small number of people (i.e. however many we are willing to tolerate) are poorly served by the system, rather than having a much larger number of people living in silent misery (as is the case now).

  16. [Compact Crank]

    [Posted Monday, December 7, 2015 at 7:22 pm | PERMALINK]

    [If the population of 5.4 million Finns was given 800 euros each every month, it would cost the government 52.2 billion euros a year. The government has projected a 2016 revenue of 49.1 billion euros.]

    [Geniuses.]

    This is a lie.

    One would hope that as just minutes earlier and without the slightest scrap of evidence, you accused a gay man of homophobia, you would posses enough common sense to pull your silly head in and stop posting bullshit.

    Finland (official) GDP 2014: €272.6 Billion
    Finland Budget Revenue 2014 €151.4 Billion

    Tablet computer will not permit me to link, however I have a 6 year old who could Google: CIA WORLD FACTBOOK FINLAND.

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