BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

A particularly strong result from ReachTEL further drives up the Coalition’s lead in this week’s poll aggregate reading, which even puts the Coalition ahead on the seat projection in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been yo-yoing from one week to the next recently, and this week it’s the turn of an upswing for the Coalition, whose lead blows out nearly a full point to 54.5-45.5 on the back of a strong result in the ReachTEL poll conducted late last week. However, this only translates into a single gain on the seat projection – in Victoria, where the Coalition is now credited with more seats than Labor for the first time in living memory. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Also:

• Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Australian Workers Union official Misha Zelinsky has abandoned a plan to challenge the Labor preselection of Sharon Bird, member for the Illawarra region seat of Cunningham. The report says Bird had been imperilled by the recently published draft redistribution, which moved into the electorate branches controlled by state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, a foe of Bird’s. Zelinsky was reportedly persuaded to withdraw by the party’s state secretary, Jamie Clements, acting on the urging of Bill Shorten.

• I had a piece in Crikey today on Labor’s developing preselection imbroglio in the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills, which will be vacated at the next election by the retirement of Kelvin Thomson. Below is a graphic I prepared for the piece that didn’t get a run.

2015-12-02 wills votes and demographics

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,375 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  3. I noticed Lucy Turnbull was on The Project spruiking for a Cancer Research Institute at the UNSW that she is associated with. They certainly are a double act those two.

  4. c@tmomma, 2302

    [As they will all be speaking Nick’s language they’d have to be Xenophones, surely? :)]

    I think you’ve got it :lol

  5. 2277

    Xenophon`s party started out as a vehicle to get his name above the line to increase his vote. Now he is capitalising on dissatisfaction with the major parties. He is a better politician than Palmer and also he is not a billionaire and never has been.

  6. “I noticed Lucy Turnbull was on The Project spruiking for a Cancer Research Institute at the UNSW that she is associated with. They certainly are a double act those two.”

    Yes, they have been compared to the Underwoods.

  7. Tom, 2305

    I don’t doubt Xenophon is a much better operator than Palmer, but his party (and hence the name of it) seems, to me, to be built around his personal popularity and not much else. Xenophon won’t be able to be in parliament forever, and my question is: what would happen to NXT after Xenophon leaves? Other third parties that have achieved political prominence in Australia (DLP, the Dems, the Greens) have shown to be more than just the devotees of a political cult figure. Of course I haven’t seen the representatives of the party, but I fear that the party will waste away after he retires (though this may be a long way off).

  8. Airlines 2269 – I don’t feel bound to support all policies of Governments that might be of a similar political bent to me – especially when the policy appears so economically irresponsible.

  9. [I noticed Lucy Turnbull was on The Project spruiking for a Cancer Research Institute at the UNSW that she is associated with. They certainly are a double act those two.]

    By contrast, Therese Rein was hounded out of the country.

  11. Simon Katich@2217

    Has this been discussed on PB since announced? IMO its great someone is giving this a burl – especially with such broad support.

    Finland plans to give every citizen 800 euros a month and scrap benefits


    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/finland-plans-to-give-every-citizen-800-euros-a-month-and-scrap-benefits-a6762226.html

    A guaranteed, non-means tested, and adequate basic income for every citizen is the only way the do this.

    Cut out all that inefficient control bureaucracy and socially destructive moralising in one step.

    Maybe one day we will grow up and just do it. Maybe.

  15. Given SA was the home of the Democrats it does not surprise me that they think Xenophon is worth voting for.

    Hopefully he will crash and burn outside SA.

    Senate voting reform is required ASAP.

  17. Alias

    [I suppose Lindy Chamberlain might have something to say about that law.]

    Not really. She was incorrectly jailed for reasons which had nothing to do with that law.

    The family of murder victims deserve every support to make their lives a little bit better and the bastards who murder can at least say where the body is hidden.

  19. Wyatt Roy was on QLD ABC radio just after 7pm for an extended interview on innovation. He came across as knowing his subject and spoke well with intelligence and enthusiasm.

    Very good interview.

  20. It is a pity for Mal and the media that his big feel-good ‘innovation’ launch today will be buried by the Nationals, MacFarlane, Brough, and Abbott over coming weeks and months.

  21. Diogenes

    But for the intervention of a Royal Commission that had nothing to do with due criminal process, Lindy Chamberlain would have been eligible to be subjected to the law you advocate.

    She was convicted of murder by a jury and failed in appeals stretching as far as due criminal process would allow.

    There was no body.

  24. I remember the QC for the Crown at the time, Ian Barker, was quoted by Darwin locals as saying, after a couple of reds in a local restaurant, words to the effect: “I wouldn’t care if someone walked in here now with baby Azaria screaming for a feed under their arm, I would still say Lindy Chamberlain is guilty.”

  25. CC @ 2312,

    ‘ Husic getting bucketted by Dalley. He must hate Shorten’s guts.’

    No, actually.

    Didn’t watch Insiders on Sunday? It’s the Liberals and Nationals that hate each other’s guts. Labor are the happy campers. 😀

  26. [It is a pity for Mal and the media that his big feel-good ‘innovation’ launch today will be buried by the Nationals, MacFarlane, Brough, and Abbott over coming weeks and months.]

    But David enjoyed young Roy’s contribution so it wasn’t a complete waste. Given there was so little content in the PM’s announcement it is a wonder Roy had much to talk about.

  31. All who were present on the night don’t believe she did it.
    The aboriginal trackers say it was a dingo.
    The so-called ‘forensic evidence’ was all thoroughly discredited.
    All that remains is prejudice.

  32. I’m not saying I’m convinced beyond reasonable doubt but her story had inconsistencies, the jumpsuit cuts didn’t fit with a dingo and there has never been another baby killed by a dingo. That doesn’t mean it couldn’t have happened but I lean to her having done it.

  33. Read John Bryson’s Evil Angels.

    It convinced me that she was convicted on blind, irrational prejudice. I don’t think she did it – but, more importantly for the law, the so-called evidence on which she was convicted was utterly tainted, appalling forensics, and attitudes forged in utter ignorance of her and her religion.

  34. Diogenes@2332

    I’m not saying I’m convinced beyond reasonable doubt but her story had inconsistencies, the jumpsuit cuts didn’t fit with a dingo and there has never been another baby killed by a dingo. That doesn’t mean it couldn’t have happened but I lean to her having done it.

    Both points have long since been discredited.

    I hope you base your practice on better evidence.

    She lacked motive and opportunity for a start.

  36. TPOF@2333

    Read John Bryson’s Evil Angels.

    It convinced me that she was convicted on blind, irrational prejudice. I don’t think she did it – but, more importantly for the law, the so-called evidence on which she was convicted was utterly tainted, appalling forensics, and attitudes forged in utter ignorance of her and her religion.

    Yes, a good book and compelling.

    The whole persecution was a disgrace driven by blind prejudice.

  37. If you look at all the babies murdered in the world, mothers outweight dingos as the murderer by a few hundred thousand to either zero or one.

  38. Diogenes@2337

    If you look at all the babies murdered in the world, mothers outweight dingos as the murderer by a few hundred thousand to either zero or one.

    Oh right, so now we do convictions on statistics and not evidence.

  39. Cranky

    [ Finland – 43% plus Tax to GDP ratio and they’re in a recession – but can’t work out why?

    Geniuses. ]

    Again, I agree.

    Even if they can’t figure out why they’re in recession (and they would not be alone in that!) they’re taking a positive approach to getting themselves out of it.

    Evidence shows that not only does a ‘basic income’ approach save heaps of money by removing inefficient subsidies and wasteful social security payments, it can also reduce unemployment.

    Genius indeed!

  45. Dio

    I know the main tracker.

    She told me that if some whitefellas had asked her on the night she could have told them straight away what had happened.

    The ONLY issue of doubt, IMO, is whether Chamberlain killed the baby and then fed it to the dingo or whether the dingo came in killed the baby and then dragged it off.

  47. LEAN Australia ‏@LEANAustralia 7h7 hours ago Sydney, New South Wales

    .@deemadigan nothing says #innovation like spending $600k public money on Windfarm Commissioner to persecute clean energy operators

  50. Diogenes@2341

    bemused

    I am not arguing about the validity of her conviction. I am saying why I think she probably did it.

    On the basis of zero evidence.

    The crown case did not even meet the civil ‘balance of probability’ let alone the criminal ‘beyond reasonable doubt’.

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