BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

A particularly strong result from ReachTEL further drives up the Coalition’s lead in this week’s poll aggregate reading, which even puts the Coalition ahead on the seat projection in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been yo-yoing from one week to the next recently, and this week it’s the turn of an upswing for the Coalition, whose lead blows out nearly a full point to 54.5-45.5 on the back of a strong result in the ReachTEL poll conducted late last week. However, this only translates into a single gain on the seat projection – in Victoria, where the Coalition is now credited with more seats than Labor for the first time in living memory. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Also:

Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Australian Workers Union official Misha Zelinsky has abandoned a plan to challenge the Labor preselection of Sharon Bird, member for the Illawarra region seat of Cunningham. The report says Bird had been imperilled by the recently published draft redistribution, which moved into the electorate branches controlled by state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, a foe of Bird’s. Zelinsky was reportedly persuaded to withdraw by the party’s state secretary, Jamie Clements, acting on the urging of Bill Shorten.

• I had a piece in Crikey today on Labor’s developing preselection imbroglio in the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills, which will be vacated at the next election by the retirement of Kelvin Thomson. Below is a graphic I prepared for the piece that didn’t get a run.

2015-12-02 wills votes and demographics

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,375 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Ok CC, I’m sure in your crazy shock-jock addled mind that craves attention and relevance you’ve made some kind of point, but back out here in reality we’re just laughing at you.

  2. Yes Turnbull talking about innovation is a bit like Kevin Rudd holding up a somewhat out of date laptop and talking about the education revolution.

    But you know what?

    It plays well with the punters, so Shorten better be careful about knocking. Punters are craving positivity. They want to hear about a good future; rather than some notion of Caucasian Aussies selling thongs to our new Chinese overlords on St Kilda beach (or Bondi beach for those in Sydney).

  3. Thanks Lizzie 🙂

    My working theory is that conservatives suffer from ever-worsening relevance deprivation disorder, and in response they engage in ever more ridiculous antics to try and gain the attention and affirmation they so crave.

  4. [It plays well with the punters]

    Tax cuts for the wealthy and importing ‘talent’ plays well with the punters? They are obviously quite stupid.

  5. We are. You just don’t know it. If you find it easier to handle, maintain your oblivion. No one will hold that against you.

  6. I suspect the majority of punters couldn’t care less about Turnbull’s “innovation”, they don’t know what it means. I don’t either.

  7. [We are. You just don’t know it. If you find it easier to handle, maintain your oblivion. No one will hold that against you.]

    My apologies for thinking today was a bit of an unimportant yawn where your average voter will be unimpressed. A winner for Shorten before Shorten even opens his mouth. Tax cuts for the wealthy, bankruptcy sweeteners … not smart Turnbull not smart.

  8. [We are. You just don’t know it. If you find it easier to handle, maintain your oblivion. No one will hold that against you.]

    My apologies for thinking today was a bit of an unimportant yawn where your average voter will be unimpressed. A winner for Shorten before Shorten even opens his mouth. Tax cuts for the wealthy, bankruptcy sweeteners … not smart Turnbull not smart.

  9. alias – Tony’s Tradies fell flat, so given that the (no) ideas boom is all spin and very little substance, Turnbull is going to have to rely pretty heavily on his popularity to convince voters that he’s selling innovation and not warmed over cover for cutting taxes on the rich.

  10. [If the population of 5.4 million Finns was given 800 euros each every month, it would cost the government 52.2 billion euros a year. The government has projected a 2016 revenue of 49.1 billion euros.]

    Geniuses.

  11. WWP.. You may be right. It is quite possible that the entirety of today’s announcement doesn’t amount to a hill of beans in the minds of the average voter. I’ll grant you that but I would stick with my broader point that the punters want to hear positivity after the last several years of unrelenting negativity from Canberra.

    JD.. Yes, again you may be right but as I was saying to WWP I believe there is a general craving, a deep-seated hunger to believe that Australia has a good future. After Abbott-Hockey gutted the car industry and generally ran the joint down, many people want to believe we can steal a march on the Asians when it comes to innovation (or “technology” as most people would tend to think of it).

  12. CC, 2267

    Considering the Finnish coalition government is made up of centre and centre-right parties, wouldn’t they be up your alley?

  13. I don’t post here, but used to read the comments every day, multiple times. It was informative, and would give multiple perspectives with arguments developed through multiple posts. I like to read arguments of positions I hold and very importantly, those I don’t. Although I hold strong views, I want both sides argued, preferably with evidence and logic, not yelled with attacks impugning characters of posters. At times there is such a dialogue. I learn a lot in such dialogue.

    But these comments are now swamped by ad hominem attacks. It is uninformative. And makes this commentary largely irrelevant to political commentary. I need to scroll through most posts for nuggets of worthwhile commentary.

    Is this to be a site for personal attacks and associated ‘wins’ or political debate?

  14. Crnky

    [ Geniuses. ]

    Yes, I agree. It is a very good move. In Australia we can only hope for a government as serious about reforming and simplifying our complex and inefficient social security system.

  15. [If the population of 5.4 million Finns was given 800 euros each every month, it would cost the government 52.2 billion euros a year. The government has projected a 2016 revenue of 49.1 billion euros.]
    [Geniuses.]
    And judging an attempt to bring a country out of recession that has broad cross party local support and support from at least some economists from left and right and will be trialled and not implemented for at least a year; from one paragraph from Bloomberg… makes you a numbnut.

  16. I do like Xenophon, but I’m not too sure whether or not his party will stick around for a long time – the idea of naming your party after yourself rubs me the wrong way (PUP is the epitome of this).

  17. [The same Leigh Sales, I guess, who tore shreds off Joe Hockey after the 2014 Budget, and took a lot of heat for it.]

    My dog could tear shreds off Joe Hockey considering his lack of numeracy, communication and economic skills.

  18. [The same Leigh Sales, I guess, who tore shreds off Joe Hockey after the 2014 Budget, and took a lot of heat for it.]

    Joe Hockey really should be put down as an own goal.

  19. I don’t know it this has been linked from Bolt

    [My tip: Tony Abbott is staying in politics. He knows he is needed. ]

    That’s GREAT news for Turnbull.

  20. There is a lot to be said for this law

    [Killers who refuse to tell South Australian police what happened to their victims will remain in jail under a proposed “no body, no parole” rule.

    Correctional Services minister Tony Piccolo said the changes would give life-sentenced prisoners an incentive to co-operate with authorities and bring closure to victims’ families.

    “I could not think of anything more awful than to have a loved-one missing, whilst their killer serves time in prison,” Mr Piccolo said.]

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/aap/article-3104229/No-body-no-parole-rule-SA-killers.html#ixzz3tcgIuWKi

  21. [After reading todays comments from CC; I’m convinced CC and TBA share the same brain cell. It was CC turn today]

    You are too kind, i would have guessed today’s turn went to TBA.

  22. AussieAchmed, 2287

    [After reading todays comments from CC; I’m convinced CC and TBA share the same brain cell. It was CC turn today.]

    Can’t be. CC’s heard of grammar and tends to think it’s a good idea.

  23. “The ideas boom.”

    That’s a pretty good line from Turnbull.

    I’d say Leigh Sales won on points but Turnbull ducked and weaved fairly well after the rough week that was last week.

  24. alias
    Posted Monday, December 7, 2015 at 7:25 pm | PERMALINK
    WWP.. You may be right. It is quite possible that the entirety of today’s announcement doesn’t amount to a hill of beans in the minds of the average voter. I’ll grant you that but I would stick with my broader point that the punters want to hear positivity after the last several years of unrelenting negativity from Canberra.

    JD.. Yes, again you may be right but as I was saying to WWP I believe there is a general craving, a deep-seated hunger to believe that Australia has a good future. After Abbott-Hockey gutted the car industry and generally ran the joint down, many people want to believe we can steal a march on the Asians when it comes to innovation (or “technology” as most people would tend to think of it).

    That’s an accurate assessment.

    The casual viewer will see todays announcement by Malcolm as positive and ‘progressive’ and a big change from what the bloke they rejected had to offer.

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