The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been yo-yoing from one week to the next recently, and this week it’s the turn of an upswing for the Coalition, whose lead blows out nearly a full point to 54.5-45.5 on the back of a strong result in the ReachTEL poll conducted late last week. However, this only translates into a single gain on the seat projection – in Victoria, where the Coalition is now credited with more seats than Labor for the first time in living memory. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Also:
• Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Australian Workers Union official Misha Zelinsky has abandoned a plan to challenge the Labor preselection of Sharon Bird, member for the Illawarra region seat of Cunningham. The report says Bird had been imperilled by the recently published draft redistribution, which moved into the electorate branches controlled by state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, a foe of Bird’s. Zelinsky was reportedly persuaded to withdraw by the party’s state secretary, Jamie Clements, acting on the urging of Bill Shorten.
• I had a piece in Crikey today on Labor’s developing preselection imbroglio in the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills, which will be vacated at the next election by the retirement of Kelvin Thomson. Below is a graphic I prepared for the piece that didn’t get a run.
William, did you include this week’s Essential in your calculations?
I’m fully expecting this to be, as William obliquely points out, one of those high water mark weeks for the Coalition as the Brough Imbroglio, the realisation in the community that a rise in the GST is inevitable and the only option that the unagile, unimaginative, unadventurous Turnbull government have been able to come up with or are willing to touch.
It seems to me that Labor have gotten Turnbull into a ‘rock and a hard place’ position wrt Brough. If Brough stays and Turnbull keeps defending him he looks like Gillard did when she kept on defending Craig Thomson. If he sacks him then Turnbull creates another, powerful enemy and malcontent in his own ranks, as I don’t think Brough will take the demotion lying down, it’s not his style.
Plus it opens up a weakened flank for Labor to keep attacking him wrt the part played by Bishop,Roy and Pyne, maybe even Abbott himself. Now that would be a chess piece Turnbull would love to take out, but is he willing to sacrifice his Queen, a Pawn and a Bishop to do it. 🙂
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
There’s another mass shooting under way in the US. What a mess that country is in! It appears that “one to three white males in military style uniforms” are active”. Now at least 12 confirmed dead. Now a suspicious device has been found in the building. The perps had ski masks and bullet proof vests.
http://ktla.com/2015/12/02/authorities-respond-to-20-victim-shooting-incident-in-san-bernardino-fire-dept/
The remnants of the National Embarrassment’s utterings are still in the air.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-shirtfronting-vladimir-putin-the-us-put-their-money-on-putin-20151202-gldupc.html
More from the book “Shirtfronted”. No wonder Abbott got the shove!
http://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2015/Shirtfronted/PartFourSecurity.html
A big wake-up call for air travellers as poor regulation comes under the spotlight.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/why-the-airasia-crash-report-should-serve-as-a-wakeup-call-for-travellers-20151202-gld94f.html
Mark Kenny on Brough – Turnbull’s first big test as PM.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mal-brough-hangs-by-a-thread-as-malcolm-turnbull-faces-first-character-test-as-pm-20151202-gldsj0.html
The SMH editorial calls for Brough to be stood aside at least until the police investigation runs its course.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/mal-brough-should-step-aside-until-police-investigation-is-finished-20151201-gld4wa.html
Michelle Grattan on Turnbull now defending the indefensible.
https://theconversation.com/back-to-the-wall-brough-dramatically-switches-his-story-on-slipper-diary-51677
The Independent Australia dissects Brough’s reference to the Federal Court decision.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mal-brough-and-the-federal-court,8444
Bob Ellis on the Descent of Brough.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/12/02/the-brough-descent/
“View from the Street” has a ball in asking who is the government’s biggest liability today.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-so-whos-the-governments-biggest-liability-today-20151202-gldtjg.html
Section 2 . . .
Here’s an interesting research study – why are Australians so uninformed (misinformed?) on the matters canvassed in this Ipsos survey?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/ipsos-perils-of-perception-survey-finds-australians-out-of-touch-with-reality-20151201-glczuy.html
The methamphetamine taskforce has come to the realisation that we can’t just arrest our way out of this problem.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ice-taskforce-report-shifts-focus-from-policing-to-treatment-20151202-gldipb.html
51 most commonly misused words – test yourself out. (I had one surprise – the word “stanch”)
http://www.smh.com.au/world/our-51-most-commonly-misused-words-and-phrases-20151202-gldkqf.html
Stephen Koukoulas rejoices yet another reduction in tobacco consumption in Australia.
http://thekouk.com/blog/tobacco-consumption-falls-again-plain-packaging-and-excise-hikes-work.html
A poll in Turnbull’s electorate showed fairly significant support for the removal of women and children from Nauru.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/most-voters-in-pms-electorate-want-women-children-out-of-nauru-detention-poll-20151202-glddmf.html
The Liberal Party is going all out in the by-election in Hockey’s seat.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/north-sydney-byelection-liberal-party-appears-to-be-pulling-out-all-the-stops-20151202-gldj0f.html
What should we do with this prick?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/newsat-executive-discussed-forging-signature-20151202-gld84s.html
The US found what to do with THIS one!
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/big-karma-hits-big-pharma-as-biotech-shares-plunge-after-pricegouging-accusations-20151202-gldg59.html
I read this and seethe. All the talk of average inventories and delaying payments to suppliers is an indication of shit management absorbed with dangerous, simplistic measures. And I bet the “smart” ones bought bigger quantities of goods on the basis of a so-called volume price break. Again ignorance of the difference between price and cost come to the fore.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/dick-smiths-crisis-a-lesson-in-why-cash-is-king-20151202-gldfyo.html
Now parents are on the rise as the assaulters of Australian school principals. What have we become?
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/research-reveals-rise-in-attacks-on-australian-school-principals-20151202-gldt70.html
Section 3 . . . including Cartoon Corner.
This not the sort of journo test drive experience Ford would want!
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/companies/new-ford-everest-suv-catches-fire-during-a-test-drive-destroyed-by-the-blaze/story-fnkjkh00-1227631410163
Greg Hunt in Paris – a delusional fighting truth instead of carbon!
https://newmatilda.com/2015/12/02/greg-hunt-in-paris-a-delusional-revolutionary-fighting-truth-instead-of-carbon/
Here’s a very interesting lateral thinking approach to the fight against national obesity.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/lets-get-creative-in-the-fight-against-obesity-20151201-glcy0v.html
Doctors must stand up to the cowardice of not standing up to bullies in the profession.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/doctors-must-stand-up-to-the-cowardice-of-ignoring-bullying-20151202-gldgyl.html
David Pope is making the most of the opened tin can top hat that he has made a signature feature of his Turnbull cartoons.
Ron Tandberg still goes to Abbott for inspiration.
What an absolute ripper from Mark Knight!!
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/a6db0eb913ae1d2b506220aed70c75a6?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
Great work from David Rowe as he takes Turnbull to Malbrough Country.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/l/d/n/o/7/image.imgtype.galleryLand
Good morning all.
To add to C@t’s analysis, with which I agree, the lack of anything of any excitement out of the Paris Climate talks will start to impact for those whose high rating of Turnbull is based on expectation that he will deliver change.
That said, I would be surprised if any of these things will result in a substantial immediate drop in support for Turnbull and his government. I suspect that disappointment will need to start becoming entrenched before the polls drop seriously. This may not, in fact, occur until after the summer holidays.
Here’s the proper link to David Rowe.
BK
I thought those ’51 most commonly misused words’ were a little esoteric for many speakers, but one stood out for me – it must be more universal than I realised. I first saw it used wrongly three times in The Age in the last 2-3 weeks. Example: ‘He was reticent to take action’ – should be reluctant.
C@tmomma @ 1:
William, did you include this week’s Essential in your calculations?
All praise Essential! The only poll telling anything like the truth at the moment.
We all rather assumed that Turnbull wasn’t standing up to Tony but it appears that he was – so much so that Tony shut him out of security discussions. Tony didn’t want dissenting voices, just yes-men (which was obvious from most of his appointments.
However, this rather takes the shine off Mal’s deliberate trashing of the NBN, as he could have stood up to Tony if he’d wanted to. Other influences at work, obviously.
TPOF @ 6:
I would be surprised if any of these things will result in a substantial immediate drop in support for Turnbull and his government. I suspect that disappointment will need to start becoming entrenched before the polls drop seriously. This may not, in fact, occur until after the summer holidays.
Or maybe it won’t happen at all? Not because Turnbull won’t disappoint, but be because the alternative leader is even more disappointing.
Personally I’m very disappointed Turnbull caved to the mining lobby on the fossil fuel subsidies statement in Paris, but I know Labor also supports the diesel fuel rebate, so its not like Labor is a better option on this particular issue.
No-one knows whether the shooters in San Bernadino are of the Daesh variety, your common or garden “Sovereign Citizens” out to lay waste a community help center, or just regulation gun-nuts with some kind of grudge to exercise.
It really doesn’t seem to matter, as these tragedies – from all of the above causes – seems to happen pretty much weekly in the US.
I bet those office staff wished they had Armalites and 45 automatics so they could have taken out a few of the killers, to make things easier for the hundreds of police who don’t appear to know what’s happening, other than lots of people are dead.
Just tweeted by the editor of Think Progress.
“We’ve tried doing nothing about gun violence for awhile. Doesn’t seem to be working very well.”
BB
FoxNews is just reporting that the shooters are on the loose.
Morning all
Thanks BK for today’s dawn patrol.
Frustrating and sickening re the latest shootings
[BB
FoxNews is just reporting that the shooters are on the loose.]
Well, if they were Daesh they’d have kept on firing until they were gunned down, I guess (or blew themselves up).
So they could just be regulation gun-nuts with a grudge against welfare.
[ San Bernardino Fire officials are reporting at least 20 victims and 12 reported casualties in a shooting in the 1300 block of South Waterman. Authorities are advising all motorists to stay away from the area around the Inland Regional Center, a center serving people with developmental disabilities in San Bernardino and Riverside counties. ]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-02/mass-shooting-active-shooter-california-san-bernardino-fire-officials-report-20-vict
The Sovereign Citizens are where you end up when you chase Libertarians down to the logical end of their rat holes: you can’t institutionalize freedom and I will allow none of my freedoms to be fettered in any way so I am just going to have to kill you if you try.
Like BK I was caught by stanch. Actually I think it is a word I have never used.
I agree with Lizzie that reticent is now used more generally. It is a word that is changing its meaning. Remeber that for Shakespear “naughty” was a word of serious abuse, not a word for an action by a child.
Meretricious is one that might have caught be out.
I am not sure I fully agree with his “politically correct” but that could be differences between Australia and the USA.
[Personally I’m very disappointed Turnbull caved to the mining lobby on the fossil fuel subsidies statement in Paris, but I know Labor also supports the diesel fuel rebate, so its not like Labor is a better option on this particular issue.]
Right. Let’s just ignore the other actions Labor is proposing on climate change, which puts them light years ahead, and focus instead on one minor point.
This really is concern trolling.*
*I think this might be the first time on PB I’ve accused someone of this, so don’t do the ‘anyone who disagrees with you gets called a troll’ meme on me.
BK
[
BB
FoxNews is just reporting that the shooters are on the loose.]
Must be the usual gun nuts. Anything more than a 1% chance the gunmen were of the Muslim persuasion and Faux News would be in Daily Telegraph mode.
Willaim
Great graphic, but have you mis-labelled the headings!!!!!
Lizzie – yes, and it also gives the lie to Abbott’s insistence that nobody ever said anything to him.
It is clear that Abbott was negative feedback from a variety of quarters, including (and especially) colleagues reporting back comments from ordinary voters.
Also, Abbott has to have heard these things first hand: who can forget various incidents where MPs/PMs were caught on camera doing shopping mall walkies where people walk past and call them an idiot or a dickhead or whatever? I recall it happening to Abbott at least two or three times, so I’m sure there were tons more that we don’t know about.
Anyone who still thinks the sun shines out their arse in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary is seriously deluded.
So Shorten is able to stop his NSW Right allies from unseating the completely lacklustre Sharon Bird, but is powerless to prevent the industrial left from shafting the high-performing Lisa Singh?
Sad days for a once-great party.
chinda63
[
Lizzie – yes, and it also gives the lie to Abbott’s insistence that nobody ever said anything to him.]
The fingers in his ears and going “la la la la la la” made it a bit hard for Tones to notice.
[Like BK I was caught by stanch. Actually I think it is a word I have never used.]
I’ve never heard of the word “stanch”.
I also disagreed with using “cliche” as an adjective, as in “It was a very cliched production”. I reckon that’s fine.
Some of the greatest quips and wit in the English language come from using nouns as verbs, verbs as adjectives and adverbs as nouns, or whatever. There should be more of it.
My greatest loathing is reserved for “agreeance”, as in “We were all in agreeance”. “Agreeance” isn’t even a word.
This is followed, a short half-head behind, by the use of the word “like” as a verbal filler, like, you know, like, sort of a way of taking a breath, like, without stopping, like, talking.
[ “Agreeance” isn’t even a word.]
It will become one, if enough people use it.
BB
Another of my most “unfavourite” words is “normalcy”.
BK
Thanks again for today’s news wrap.
Coming from a family of teachers the article regarding the increasing attacks directed towards principals is sickening and makes me very angry.
The teaching profession is under attack like never before from lazy right wing media like the Herald Sun and 3AW here in Melbourne to violent students and parents.
Years ago my father fed up with constant carping from a friend about what a quote cushy job unquote he had as a principal invited him to spend a day with him at his school.
Just a normal average day… meetings from 8.00am, ambulance called for a student suffering a seizure, new teacher under stress from a rowdy grade 2 class, more meetings, some teaching, counselling, breaking up school yard fights, more meetings with parents and finally home about 9.30pm.
Just a normal day my father said.
His friend never ever uttered a word again criticising teachers and schools again. The irony is his daughter is now a primary school teacher.
BB
The coverage on Fox News anchored by Shepard Smith is actually quite good.
At this stage. Wait until Fox and Friends and Bill O’Reilly get on the job though.
I recall as a kid getting a giggle when a commercial journalist confused consecrate and consummate, as at the altar in a wedding.!!! The mind boggles.
[It is clear that Abbott was negative feedback from a variety of quarters, including (and especially) colleagues reporting back comments from ordinary voters.]
I am still of the opinion that Abbott was hoping, in the back of his mind, for a serious local terror incident.
In the meantime the Daily Tele and the Shock jocks kept the terror angle ramped up. When you consider the atrocities in Paris, Mali and Turkey, plus the daily slaughters in America, our Daesh wannabees were pretty low key by comparison… borrowed guns, crazy heads, young kids… not your organized armed squads with suicide bombs attached to their waists in case the cops didn’t get them first time.
The responses, however, were somewhat out of proportion to the actual events.
[I recall as a kid getting a giggle when a commercial journalist confused consecrate and consummate, as at the altar in a wedding.!!! The mind boggles.]
I am not a suppository of wisdom on the English language, but our ex-PM made a few classic clangers too.
From my association with principals, I doubt:
(a) they get much change out of 90 hours work per week; and
(b) much of the working day is taken up with people telling them what a great job they are doing.
shellbell
And it is not sufficiently recognised how much difference a good principal can make to a school, its teachers and its educational outcomes.
It was gormless and craven of Labor to support the citizenship-stripping laws. The laws will deprive Australia of intelligence from returned militants, and assistance with deradicalization efforts from people who know the reality of violent organizations. The laws won’t reduce the risk of terrorism one iota. They are a cowardly abdication of national responsibility – it’s a matter of saying, “We don’t like you, so you are somebody else’s problem even though you share our citizenship.” They are almost certainly unconstitutional.
dtt
nearly happened at my sister’s wedding, where she and her husband took kissing the bride to a new level…
Catholic schools need to clean up their act. A fundamental step for them is to recognize that students bring their own identities to school. Guy Rundle in Crikey yesterday:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/12/02/rundle-imagine-theres-no-religion-in-education/
BK
Do you know if the CFS volunteers injured in the Pinery fine have recovered?
dtt@31: that’s a great one . Even better than my previous favourite: Steve Liebman on Today announcing breathlessly on the election of John Paul II that “the Catholic Church has elected its first non-Carholic pope”!
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/another-labor-union-accuses-premier-andrews-of-betrayal-20151202-gldrdn.html
[Yet another union is targeting Daniel Andrews’ government, this time over what it says is an “absolute betrayal” of a pre-election promise to state-employed disability workers.
The Health and Community Services Union has been infuriated by government moves to outsource government disability services work.
The Andrews government, which swept to power on the back of a strong union campaign against the Coalition, is already engaged in a bitter industrial dispute with the firefighters union.
The Police Association is also taking industrial action over a pay deal, and earlier this year the Rail, Tram and Bus Union took the first strike on the train and tram network in over two decades.]
[@Thefinnigans
Using fake emails, @TurnbullMalcolm demanded a sitting PM resign. Now he wont ask his Minister to resign who had confessed a potential crime
1:44 PM – 2 Dec 2015
9 RETWEETS2 LIKES]
Nicholas
You can’t reasonably expect religious schools not to be religious. The problem is more that parents who aren’t religious seem to think that religious schools will provide values that public schools do not. That’s a load of hooey, of course.
One of the reasons private (and thus religious) schools are seen this way is that they have powers over students that public schools do not, because the exchange of money in return for education creates a contractual situation.
If non religious people stopped sending their children to religious schools, then religious schools would then either be forced to change or perish. Some would choose the latter.
In the meantime, to blame religious schools for teaching their religious values is simply silly. No student has to attend them. Every student who does knows what the school is about.
Morning all.
Thanks BK for today’s reading, love the Mark Knight cartoon.
Terrible news from the US. And it may seem callous but for as long as the country refuses to do anything meaningful on gun law reform these senseless tragedies are going to continue.
Dreyfus promoted up the order to open the batting today.
but Josh is taking his bat and ball and going home
BK:
How long before an apologist for arming people/Fox News comes out to say if only the people with disabilities at the centre were armed this wouldn’t have happened!
The Sherriff is claiming that he does not know whether this is a terrorist incident.
Idiot.
Of course it is a terrorist incident.
What he doesn’t know is the brand.
[You can’t reasonably expect religious schools not to be religious. ]
Nicholas is a fanatic who believes in what he believes in as fundamental and unshakable truths, and like all fundies he doesn’t do reasonable. Why would you do reasonable when you have truth.
On Labor pre-selections it is an area where I’m very critical of the process and the outcomes of pre-selection at both a state and federal level based on knowledge of and personal involvement in WA.
[So Shorten is able to stop his NSW Right allies from unseating the completely lacklustre Sharon Bird, but is powerless to prevent the industrial left from shafting the high-performing Lisa Singh?]
How does one evaluate Singh as high performing? Serious question, only time I heard her she was making a ‘contribution’ to a tax debate in the senate where she couldn’t even seem to read the dreadful rubbish that had been prepared for her. She was hopeless and i didn’t have faith she could even spell tax at the end of it, let alone make a helpful contribution.
Are there areas she understands and makes contributions to?
There is an immense difference between religious education (of which there is little in Australia’s Catholic schools) and religious indoctrination. No school that receives government funding should be doing religious indoctrination. A genuinely religious education would teach the values and histories of a variety of religions – emphasis on the plural – and would not just give an uncritical recital of one interpretation of one religion’s content.