The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been yo-yoing from one week to the next recently, and this week it’s the turn of an upswing for the Coalition, whose lead blows out nearly a full point to 54.5-45.5 on the back of a strong result in the ReachTEL poll conducted late last week. However, this only translates into a single gain on the seat projection – in Victoria, where the Coalition is now credited with more seats than Labor for the first time in living memory. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Also:
• Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Australian Workers Union official Misha Zelinsky has abandoned a plan to challenge the Labor preselection of Sharon Bird, member for the Illawarra region seat of Cunningham. The report says Bird had been imperilled by the recently published draft redistribution, which moved into the electorate branches controlled by state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, a foe of Bird’s. Zelinsky was reportedly persuaded to withdraw by the party’s state secretary, Jamie Clements, acting on the urging of Bill Shorten.
• I had a piece in Crikey today on Labor’s developing preselection imbroglio in the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills, which will be vacated at the next election by the retirement of Kelvin Thomson. Below is a graphic I prepared for the piece that didn’t get a run.
Labor’s media release –
[With a $100 million threshold, the transparency laws would apply to about 900 private firms. Now the Greens are siding with the Government to exempt two thirds of those companies.
Two weeks ago the Greens voted with Labor and members of the Senate crossbench to ensure this transparency requirement was added to the Government’s multinational tax bill. Two weeks ago Richard Di Natale’s party stood with us in ensuring big companies would be held to account for paying their fair share of tax.
The Government was so committed to shielding big companies from scrutiny that they threatened to dump their entire multinational tax bill if the Senate insisted on these amendments. This was clearly an empty negotiating tactic but Richard Di Natale fell for it hook, line and sinker.
If the Greens had not wilted like week-old kale, the Government would have had no choice but to pass this bill with the transparency amendments included. This would have been the best outcome for the Australian community and tax fairness. Instead, the Greens have delivered the Government the votes they need to gut tax transparency.]
Looks like it might be one of your common or garden gun nuts, settling workplace disputes in the way only Americans know how:
[The violence may have been prompted by an employee dispute, some now believe
…
A witness has told police that although the gunmen had their faces covered, one of them sounded and appeared very similar to an employee who had left the facility earlier in the day.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-express-thursday-december-3-2015-20151202-gldy8p.html#ixzz3tDWzD3hX ]
US gun shooting presser on now
So predictable, even banal:
[… report there may have been an incident at the holiday gathering at the Inland Regional Centre:
“A senior federal official who is monitoring the case said investigators believe one of the shooters left the party after getting into an argument and returned with one or two armed companions.”
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-express-thursday-december-3-2015-20151202-gldy8p.html#ixzz3tDXo6LV5 ]
Just lucky it wasn’t terrorism. We can at least be thankful for that!
BB
[The violence may have been prompted by an employee dispute]
Very strange when more than one shooter involved.
[Looks like it might be one of your common or garden gun nuts, settling workplace disputes in the way only Americans know how:]
Whew, that’s a relief. There was talk it could have been a terrorist attack.
[Very strange when more than one shooter involved.]
I would have thought that 25,000 Americans per year being killed by guns is a good starting point for “strange”.
REAL Jihadis would have wired themselves with suicide vests and gone down shooting inside the facility.
‘ We made a choice today, to engage and govern through amending laws to get the best possible outcome.’
Maybe the Greens are finally learning that politics is the art of the possible, that 80% (or 50%) of what you want is better than a pure heart and 100% of nothing.
[If the Greens had not wilted like week-old kale]
😆
I just don’t understand why those public servants, employees, schoolkids and welfare recipients don’t pack heat all the time, just in case someone comes along to gun them down while they’re applying for their green stamps, or studying their maths.
If the whole of America took firearms and combat training in readiness for such a predictable massacre, it’d be a lot safer place to live. The bad guys would soon get the point and give up, leaving only the good guys armed to the teeth.
After all, guns don’t kill people, do they?
z,
Yet another gormless and craven cave in by the Greens you might say.
Oh dear. Trouble in paradise for Talcum: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mp-ian-macfarlane-defects-to-nationals-in-shock-move-against-malcolm-turnbull-20151203-gle6rd.html
I read the headline on The Age site regarding McFarlane’s defection so I moved onto a nearby PC to see the shocked reaction from PBers. The reaction is amazingly muted which I guess shows how bizarre our federal politics has become.
We really have become the Italy in the south pacific haven’t we.
[ Looks like it might be one of your common or garden gun nuts, settling workplace disputes in the way only Americans know how: ]
Great, get annoyed at the works Xmas party and settle it with assault rifles?? FFS. 🙁
I really dont know if the Americans have any capacity to improve things as far as gun violence goes. If they couldn’t get the support in their legislature after the Sandy Hook shootings then they wont…ever.
Tom Hawkins
What can one say re the House of Cards that is the Truffle led govt. 😀
So we’re actually doing far, far worse than anyone expected:
[ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-03/international-trade-deficit-slumps-38pc-to-3.3b-in-october/6997942 ]
Thanks a bunch, Tony and Mal!
The USA is a nation of victims.
See what I mean…
So The Greens are in a formal alliance with the Coalition Government now?
Bless their little green cotton socks!
[We really have become the Italy in the south pacific haven’t we.]
Without the flamboyant enthusiasm or style!
I’m going to guess that “dirty deal” will be the most common two-word combination in the Senate when the day is done.
Way back at 114 I wrote:
[And what would be to stop a few more LNP members pulling the same stunt? Especially if they were of the more nutjobby variety and had been overlooked for promotion?]
Well looks like we didn’t have to wait long.
[Macfarlane: hang on to your hats, it’s a movement
The Australian Financial Review’s chief political correspondent Phil Coorey is reporting the defections may not stop with Macfarlane. He says two other MPs are considering joining him. He names one of the other wavering folks as Scott Buchholz. Buchholz lost his job as party whip when Turnbull took the party leadership. There will apparently be a meeting of Nationals later this afternoon.
It’s all happening. Hope you’ve stocked up on water and canned goods, we could be here for some time.]
Maybe it isn’t all incense and Kum-ba-yah in the Liberals under their new and most beloved overlord?
7:30 on Brough/Ashby very piss weak last night.
So a kind of micro-split, then.
Tom
As I posted. Moving parties is not much a big deal for Qlders. The Libs and the nats are all one party.
ratsak
No doubt the likes of lorax will still be worried about a Labor wipeout!!
Car1
Agreed. Not dealt with in the same vigour as TURC and Labor issues!! And did you notice how Leigh Sales introduced it? Somehow it was Labor looking for something to attack the govt with. Ffs.
We are still very much in wipeout territory aren’t we?
The lorax
Yes the libs looking like they are going to wipe each other out
[What can one say re the House of Cards that is the Truffle led govt]
They certainly do look shambolic. But Abbott’s government was just as bad and the Labor wars from Gillard’s ascendancy through to loss of government looked almost as bad – despite plenty of good legislation getting passed. The lucky country has run out of luck and bad government can no longer be neutered by fortunate circumstances. I find it all rather depressing.
The Lorax @ 169,
‘ See what I mean…’
You obviously don’t do satire.
Ok, on the Greens compromise on multinational tax transparency, does anyone know (like really know and not just cheerleading) whether this was an all or nothing compromise? Did Di Natale concede too much, or was it this or nothing?
I really don’t know. I’d prefer responses that weren’t partisan rants.
In some ways Malcolm would be happy to see RWNJs move over to the Nats. Less internal party problems to deal with and votes for nutty challengers.
Chainsaw of course isn’t one and would have been a Mal voter in the spill so his move looks very much like sour grapes at getting the arse. Which explains partly why Turnbull is so keen to sweat it out with Brough. If a good friend like Chainsaw can go and defect out of spite at being denied a ministry what could Brough do?
All those who thought it was peace love and mung beans in the Libs under Turnbull might be in for a serious rethink. Abbott isn’t going anywhere and the destabilisation is only starting.
Can’t pretend I’m not enjoying it all immensely.
Tom Hawkins
It is rather depressing. We are reaping what was sown under Abbott and his acolytes
[ 7:30 on Brough/Ashby very piss weak last night. ]
Very much not worth waiting up for. Was a bit annoyed that a lot of the commentators are doing the “ALP have not been able to lay a glove on the PM until now” thing as an intro.
Rather makes it look like the ALP are driving the Ashby / Brough matter, when in fact it is being driven by a very nasty internal Liberal faction fight.
Scott Bucholz – Queensland
Ian Macfarlane – Queensland
LNP – Queensland
Meh!
Now, if former Queensland Liberal Party President, Mal Brough, defects to the Nationals, should he be sacked by Turnbull, and ditto, Wyatt Roy, THEN I’ll be shocked.
The Borax
[ I’d prefer responses that weren’t partisan rants. ]
If you stopped posting your own partisan rants, you might get more sensible responses.
Will Turnbull be able to stanch the Brough political bleeding this QT?
If these Conservative defectors wander off to the NATs we might end up with three cornered contests for long established LNP seats.
Turnbull can only win if he keeps middle Australia. The bold and brave move might be to break the coalition and Govern in his own right.
The Libs don’t have a majority in the Senate. So what’s one more Opposition Party in the Senate?
Let’s not forget that Di Natale said that Malcolm having money in the Caymans was not a big issue. It’s pretty obvious, isn’t it, that the Greens are happy to protect the fundies and other financial types who are their core voters.
Talk is that MacFarlane may go back to the ministry after his defection to the Nats – the extra MP ‘entitling’ the Nats to an extra ministerial position. Quite handy really – let Brough loose – and give the role to MacFarlane. Keeps the QLD contingent intact – and reasonably politically agile to use the PMs fave term.
GG,
Problem is that there is no Liberals in Qld. If they split back into two parties they’d almost certainly be screwed at the state level again and the Libs might not be too keen on how the Lib/Nat split ended up.
There has always been a chance of the coalition splitting. It may yet happen
‘ I’d prefer responses that weren’t partisan rants.’
Says he who thinks he should be the arbiter of whether one is a partisan, and therefore, ipso facto, a ranter.
Pfft!
[Talk is that MacFarlane may go back to the ministry after his defection to the Nats – the extra MP ‘entitling’ the Nats to an extra ministerial position. Quite handy really – let Brough loose – and give the role to MacFarlane. Keeps the QLD contingent intact – and reasonably politically agile to use the PMs fave term.]
Sounds easy when you say it. Bet it turns into a massive shit fight if the try it in reality.
Player One
[
So we’re actually doing far, far worse than anyone expected:…………..International trade deficit slumps 38pc to $3.3b in October]
But but but the interviewer speaking to Albo on RN this morning said “exports are going gangbusters” .
Sounds like Di Natale is just the kind of guy I’d like to play poker against. Gets a bit hot and he runs to momma.
ratsak,
What they do in Queensland stays in Queensland.
MacFarlane saying he’s a Nat Federally changes the dynamics of the Federal Party.
Saying, there is nothing to see here is bollocks.
blackburnpseph @ 191,
Ah! However, would you want to be the PM who spurned Mal Brough & replaced him with Ian Macfarlane? I hear it was Brough in the party room who led the destabilisation of Tony Abbott. He could do the same to Turnbull and I don’t doubt Abbott would appreciate the use of his skill set.
Again wouldn’t want to get too far ahead of events, but this week is the perfect illustration of why sitting tight with Shorten and staying united was always Labor’s only sensible strategy to deal with Turnbull.
The massive problems with the government (and Turnbull’s own ability, or lack thereof) could only be hidden by the warm glow of ‘hey he’s not an idiot’ for so long. We’ll see how long it takes for the reality of the knuckleheads this lot are to find it’s way back into the polls, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if the fall (if and when it comes) is just as dramatic as the rise.