Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition

Malcolm Turnbull opens his Ipsos account with remarkable personal ratings and a big lead on voting intention.

The first Fairfax/Ipsos poll since the leadership change is a strong result for the Coalition, recording their lead at 53-47 on previous election preferences, or 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences. The primary votes are 45% for the Coalition, 30% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. Malcolm Turnbull leads Bill Shorten 67-21 on preferred prime minister, and records formidable personal ratings of 68% approval and 17% disapproval. Shorten is on 32% approval and 56% disapproval, compared with 39% and 49% in the last Ipsos federal poll two months ago. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Morgan continues its recent record of strong results for the Coalition, who are down half-a-point on the primary vote since a fortnight ago to 46.5%, with Labor steady on 27.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 15.5%. Both measures of two-party preferred are unchanged: respondent-allocated at 56-44 to the Coalition, previous election at 55-45. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3052.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Next to no change from the Essential Research fortnightly average this week, with the Coalition lead steady at 51-49 from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Other results include an eye-wateringly even split of public opinion on whether government should have access to telephone and internet data, with 42% calling it for yes and 41% for no. This close result carries over to the specific question of whether security agencies (49% a lot or some trust, 46% little or none) can be so trusted, but there is less faith in “the Government” (40% and 55%), and less still in telcos (31% and 64%) and other private companies (20% and 73%). A regular question on trust in institutions produces the usual results, with the list topped by state (68%) and federal (67%) police, the High Court (60%) and the ABC (55%), with political parties well to rear of a very large field on 19%. Malcolm Turnbull records a 56% approval rating for “handling the threat of terrorism in Australia”, which is little different from his regular personal ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,512 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  2. [“True blue bigot, there is nothing but hate in the hearts of Wilders and his backers. They will not succeed.”]

    Open Borders Europe Style will lead to many more Geert Wilders… I have no doubt about that.

    When the democratic populations are ignored in the interests of vocal leftwing minorities and big corporations… there will be knock on consequences.

    You lot will be happy to hear.. Angela Merkels party is now polling at it’s lowest level since the 2013 election

    BOMBS AWAY!
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/18/us-germany-merkel-poll-idUSKCN0SC0P120151018

  3. briefly,

    Labor’s broken promise to the Your Rights at Work campaigners to get rid off the ABCC in its first term gutted the unionists I worked with for 2 years on the campaign.

    Back then most of the unionists in my local campaign did not belong to the ALP and supported the Greens Party IR policy.

    Chafta – another sellout by the supposed party of labour.

    Chafta – another ‘kick in the guts’ to ordinary hardworking workers.

  5. fess @ 2440

    [I think the point with Heffernan is what is to be gained by grandstanding in parliament? If he has evidence or whatever, just hand it to authorities.]

    To be fair to Heffernan, much as it pains me to do so, he has tried to hand it to a number of ‘authorities’, and all have declined any interest. That said, and as I said earlier, the provenance and evidential substantiation of that list is so non-existent that it would be not only a waste of public money to investigate it, but would be positively dangerous as it would encourage anonymous malicious reports that would smear without any significant basis whatsoever.

    Serious detailed allegations, like those of Peter Fox that was the trigger for the Royal Commission, should always be considered. Indeed, it was a pity that Fox needed to put his career on the line to get the attention these allegations deserved. But a list?

  7. [2452
    TrueBlueAussie

    “True blue bigot, there is nothing but hate in the hearts of Wilders and his backers. They will not succeed.”

    Open Borders Europe Style will lead to many more Geert Wilders… I have no doubt about that.

    When the democratic populations are ignored in the interests of vocal leftwing minorities and big corporations… there will be knock on consequences.]

    Spoken like a true fascist.

  8. TrueBlueAussie@2442

    “The actual polling is that while his party would currently be the largest party if an election was held, it would have nothing near a majority, with something like 19-26% of the seats. ”


    38% Vote doesn’t sound too bad to me…. that’s better than what the ALP are on and the Netherlands is not a 2 party state like it is here.

    They are not on 38% of the vote. The table shows projected seat totals out of 150, not percentages of the vote.

  11. [That said, and as I said earlier, the provenance and evidential substantiation of that list is so non-existent that it would be not only a waste of public money to investigate it, but would be positively dangerous as it would encourage anonymous malicious reports that would smear without any significant basis whatsoever.]

    Yes I did wonder if that was why there’d been no acting upon the accusations. Baseless smears under parliamentary privilege however, is Hefferenan’s MO.

  17. [2453
    Pegasus]

    This is not going to be won so easily. There is a caucus to convert. There is a public to persuade. Scrapping with the Greens, who effectively (if unintentionally) just run interference for the Liberals, will not persuade anyone of anything…and I am not about to do it.

  20. The Shovel (@The_Shovel_)
    21/10/2015, 18:03
    Joe Hockey’s parliamentary pension will cost the taxpayer $180,000 a year. Or just 60,000 middies #auspol

    Not sure if that makes Joe a lifter or a leaner

  21. [2469
    Pegasus]

    Thank you.

    I am going to try.

    Politics is not what we usually think it is. Ultimately, it is about persuasion, humility and reconciliation rather than insult, pride and rejection. I have been on familiar terms with all of these, one way or another. I know who I’d keep as my companions.

  23. Wilders party hold 66 out of total 570 (2015 election 18 March) of state/provincial seats long way to go to hold a majority, and they lost seats when compared with 2011

  26. sceptic

    [ Or just 60,000 middies #auspol

    Not sure if that makes Joe a lifter or a leaner]
    There was a type of table at pubs called a “leaner” . So looks like ‘leaner’ is the correct term.

  34. briefly,

    Email fromACTU Ged K and the Australian Unions Team:

    ————————————————
    Today the Labor Party and the Turnbull Coalition government reached an agreement on the China Free Trade Agreement.

    While there are welcome improvements to the original deal, the changes simply don’t go far enough.

    Australian Unions do not accept that trade deals mean trading away local jobs or allowing corporations to sue our Government for laws Australia makes. That’s why we’ve campaigned on the China Free Trade Agreement from the outset.

    It’s this campaign – embraced by workplaces and communities across Australia – that has secured today’s gains. And it’s this campaign that will continue until we’ve fixed everything that’s still wrong with this and other trade deals.

    Next week we are hosting town hall debates across the country on whether the China Free Trade Agreement is bad for local jobs. Come along and hear the facts.

    Join us, and join the fight for local jobs now and into the future.

    In unity,

    Ged

    —————————–

    Australian Unions Team: http://www.australianunions.org.au/chafta_debates

  36. Refugee Council ‏@OzRefugeeCounc 9m9 minutes ago

    Govts own Moss report found there wasn’t the capacity on Nauru to investigate complex sex abuse cases #Lateline

    Refugee Council ‏@OzRefugeeCounc 6m6 minutes ago

    It’s past time for a royal commission into abuse in detention: rape, physical abuse, even murder, as of today, not one conviction #lateline

    TBA and other nut jobs, support RC for Unions, but not the real issues, like Domestic Violence, Political Funding, Dentention Centers, Church Abuse, School Abuse and so on.

  38. ALP Richard Marles on LL on the ChAFTA and how Labor has ensured all these safeguards, is reminiscent of the former Labor government’s claim it had completely dismantled WorkChoices. Not so, the regulatory framework in place is WorkChoices lite.

  41. Apparently 4 former National Tax officers were arrested in Japan, for giving Tax Avoidance advice.

    So it is possible to stop tax avoidance.

  42. Marles LL interview, including transcript:
    http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2015/s4336435.htm

    He was asked to respond to:
    [On 19th May this year, a 23 year-old woman called Nazanin, an Iranian asylum seeker, was given a day pass out of the Nauru detention centre. That afternoon, on her way back to the centre, Nazanin was pulled into the bushes and raped. She was found a few hours later running down a road, half-naked, bruised and bitten.

    We understand she was so shaken by the assault, she spent the following three months in isolation, refusing food and drink. She also attempted suicide.

    Well eventually, the decision was made to fly her out to a Brisbane hospital without her family. Two months later, she’s still there.

    Nazanin’s mother and brother are still on Nauru, desperate to be reunited with her.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2015/s4336437.htm

    Judge his performance for yourselves.

  43. WASTE WASTE WASTE WASTE WASTE

    sortius ‏@sortius 2m2 minutes ago

    This XG.Fast test is hilariously stupid. 2 pairs to get 5Gbps @ 35m from the card. That’s barely the distance from a pit to a socket. #NBN

    sortius ‏@sortius 1m1 minute ago

    XG-PON has been doing 10Gbps @ 40km from the card for at least 5 years #NBN

  47. [“Last I look out population is going backwards, along with Australians getting older, and your solution is to piss on them.”]

    Quality of Life should be the aim for any country not population growth.

    The people most in favour of population growth are corporations because it means they have more profits and growth in sales. We also have leftwing open border types who don’t care about the ramifications of population growth such as the environment.

    Economic Growth from population increases does NOT mean people are richer, simply corporations make more money. The highest per capita incomes countries in the world are exclusively in countries with low populations.

    So I ask, what purpose or point does population growth do for the people of Germany, Australia or anywhere else where the population can be controlled?

  49. @TBA/2497

    Quality of life? Then why are we winding back funding of Schools, Health, Welfare, Infrastructure (Except of Roads, Mining)?

    You cannot have Quality of life without the massive spending of these items.

    You say one thing, but what is actually happening is totally the opposite.

  50. [“Govts own Moss report found there wasn’t the capacity on Nauru to investigate complex sex abuse cases”]

    We are sending more AFP Officers to Nauru so they can put their fears to rest.

    Of course the refugee advocates don’t want solutions.. well, other than bringing them all here that is. Yet to hear an advocate give one idea yet regarding processing on Nauru that doesn’t involve flying them all to Australia.

    Just political clap trap

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