Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition

Malcolm Turnbull opens his Ipsos account with remarkable personal ratings and a big lead on voting intention.

The first Fairfax/Ipsos poll since the leadership change is a strong result for the Coalition, recording their lead at 53-47 on previous election preferences, or 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences. The primary votes are 45% for the Coalition, 30% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. Malcolm Turnbull leads Bill Shorten 67-21 on preferred prime minister, and records formidable personal ratings of 68% approval and 17% disapproval. Shorten is on 32% approval and 56% disapproval, compared with 39% and 49% in the last Ipsos federal poll two months ago. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Morgan continues its recent record of strong results for the Coalition, who are down half-a-point on the primary vote since a fortnight ago to 46.5%, with Labor steady on 27.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 15.5%. Both measures of two-party preferred are unchanged: respondent-allocated at 56-44 to the Coalition, previous election at 55-45. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3052.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Next to no change from the Essential Research fortnightly average this week, with the Coalition lead steady at 51-49 from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Other results include an eye-wateringly even split of public opinion on whether government should have access to telephone and internet data, with 42% calling it for yes and 41% for no. This close result carries over to the specific question of whether security agencies (49% a lot or some trust, 46% little or none) can be so trusted, but there is less faith in “the Government” (40% and 55%), and less still in telcos (31% and 64%) and other private companies (20% and 73%). A regular question on trust in institutions produces the usual results, with the list topped by state (68%) and federal (67%) police, the High Court (60%) and the ABC (55%), with political parties well to rear of a very large field on 19%. Malcolm Turnbull records a 56% approval rating for “handling the threat of terrorism in Australia”, which is little different from his regular personal ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,512 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  2. zoid, K17

    Today I listened to Bill Morrow’s opening statement to Estimates – for reasons I will not go into here – and I found it quite difficult not to throw up on the spot. It was such a spiv’s talk, full of spin and misleading statements and comments. My favourite point was back on the old ‘technology agnostic’ furphy, where Morrow stated that they would not replace copper with copper if it was cheaper to replace it with fibre. Which is quite specious. It’s like saying you’d replace the ageing car fleet with Mercedes rather than Great Wall if the Mercedes is cheaper – there’s technology agnostic for you!

  3. confessions

    [ Leave it to the Liberals to waste public money! ]

    If the government cared about money they would have it invested in the Cayman Islands.

  6. [“We don’t need one, so it would represent a massive waste of money, as well as likely erode public sentiment in favour of SSM.”]

    The left won’t accept the will of the Parliament… so that’s fucking bullshit.

    Excuse the French

  7. The only difference between a Plebiscite and a free vote in Parliament is that the lefties have to accept the Plebiscite.

    And thats EXACTLY why they don’t want it to happen.

  8. Well, I’m going to differ from the general consensus on Heffernan.

    Yes, he may be an arse but if a list exists and it appears it does I have no problem in him pursuing aggressively.

    It is difficult to prosecute those well connected or with high profiles.

    Yes, Woods did hit back with this:

    [I reject that we failed to investigate anyone that fell within our terms of reference ]

    Mmmmmm…..

  12. [The Lorax
    Posted Wednesday, October 21, 2015 at 2:51 pm | PERMALINK
    Good question from Shorten about science and innovation spending.    ]

    My God! Have this post framed – and check if some imposter is using Lorax’s name.

  14. poroti,

    That’s easy. His Lib superiors would not let him.

    Part the trade off with supporting Turnbull and helping out with the coup is he be allowed to raise his issues.

  15. Dee @ 2408

    [if a list exists and it appears it does I have no problem in him pursuing aggressively.]

    A list is like this:

    poroti
    Greensborough Growler
    Kevin-One-Seven
    Dee
    True Blue Aussie
    TPOF

    Is all I need to say is that is a list of people who are pedophiles and off goes the police to investigate?

    Heffernan has no evidence other than the alleged provenance of the list. But the names on the list, whoever they are? Phttttt…..

  17. GG

    I’d rather be labelled a sucker than refuse to entertain the possibilities.

    Poroti

    Heffernan has apparently been trying to get something moving on this since it came into his possession.

    The time factor doesn’t worry me. Heffernan may feel his time to actually get something done on this is nearing an end.

    The UK example was floating around for decades and many MP’s were ridiculed trying to get action.

    Cameron mocked Watson and said these allegations had been around for decades. Look what has transpired since.

  20. Classic

    [Keating re Turnbulls ascendency: ” Well, the bar wasnt very high, all one had to do was step over it!” Lol….love Keating. Priceless!— Denise Allen (@denniallen) October 20, 2015]

  25. I read a story the other day that the claims of a House of Commons child sex ring seem to be collapsing. It’s very easy for nutters to grab the name of a prominent figure for maximum impact and run off to the police. That’s why I’ve got my doubts about the whole Ted Heath thing: a PM, single; chinless, etc etc. He’s the perfect target.

  28. Wish they would stop calling it the NBN…its copper replacing copper that ill need to be replaced in the future.

    In the mean time millions will be spent maintaining it and millions will lost in innovation etc….

    If they spent the next 10 years projected maintenance bill we could have a real serious NBN that would make countries like Korea envious …instead we look at them with envy

  30. bemused

    responding 2 your “I might run it past one of my local councillors.”

    …of WCC Whitehorse City Council?

    If u didn’t recognise this abbreviation, guess not.

  31. Pegasus@2430

    bemused

    responding 2 your “I might run it past one of my local councillors.”

    …of WCC Whitehorse City Council?

    If u didn’t recognise this abbreviation, guess not.

    I am in City of Monash.

  33. TrueBlueAussie@2404

    I’m not too sure Colin Barnett should be attacking the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands

    The PVV say their leader, Wilders, is on track to be the next PM based on polling. The actual polling is that while his party would currently be the largest party if an election was held, it would have nothing near a majority, with something like 19-26% of the seats.

    Tradition is that the largest party leads the coalition negotiations and gets to make the first attempt at forming government, but this doesn’t guarantee that it will actually form a government accepted by the parliament. Wilders won’t automatically become PM just because his party wins the most seats, should that happen.

  35. GG:

    I wonder if Di Natali is deliberately hamstringing potential leadership candidates from shining? How else to explain giving small business to McKim?

  37. Some were opining here that Senator Heffernan deserves to be expelled from the Senate. Maybe so, but the Senate no longer has the power to expel senators: see section 8 of the Parliamentary Privileges Act 1987, at http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ppa1987273/s8.html.

    It’s interesting that Senator Heffernan’s list, containing far fewer names than Senator Joe McCarthy’s famous list, appears to have been generated from police sources at the time of the Wood Royal Commission. Given the spectacular levels of corruption in the NSW Police Force which that exercise documented, I would have thought that other things being equal the list’s evidentiary value would be pretty negligible.

  38. davidwh@2432

    Kevin three Morgan polls in a row significantly different from the other polling is very unusual. Any thoughts or ideas?

    I’ve commented on this quite a lot on my site. I believe that both the methods Morgan uses in their poll could be causing skewed results. People may be more likely to answer an SMS poll when they are enthusiastic about something. People who answer a face-to-face poll may tend to tell the interviewer what they think the interviewer wants to hear.

  40. Dee:

    I think the point with Heffernan is what is to be gained by grandstanding in parliament? If he has evidence or whatever, just hand it to authorities.

  42. [“The actual polling is that while his party would currently be the largest party if an election was held, it would have nothing near a majority, with something like 19-26% of the seats. “]

    38% Vote doesn’t sound too bad to me…. that’s better than what the ALP are on and the Netherlands is not a 2 party state like it is here.

  43. 2386
    confessions

    There is no doubt at all that the people of WA will reject the lies and the trickery of this latest fraud. There is no good at all to come from the politics of hate. Voters know it and were prepared to demonstrate that in Canning.

  47. Media Release from Australian Fair Trade and Investment Network on Chafta details the problems with the deal.
    http://aftinet.org.au/cms/sites/default/files/media%20release%20ALP%20deal%20211015.pdf#overlay-context=users/editor
    [ALP deal on China FTA falls short of changes to the Migration Act, and other problems remain

    “The deal reached by the ALP and the Coalition on the China FTA falls short of the recommendations of the ALP dissenting report for the Joint Standing Committee on Treaties published only two days ago,” Dr Patricia Ranald, Coordinator of the Australian Fair Trade
    and Investment Network said today.]

  49. [I read a story the other day that the claims of a House of Commons child sex ring seem to be collapsing.]

    They’ve dropped the child murder investigation through lack of a witness.

    There are five claims against Heath and a retired senior officer said there had been a cover up.

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