Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition

Malcolm Turnbull opens his Ipsos account with remarkable personal ratings and a big lead on voting intention.

The first Fairfax/Ipsos poll since the leadership change is a strong result for the Coalition, recording their lead at 53-47 on previous election preferences, or 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences. The primary votes are 45% for the Coalition, 30% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. Malcolm Turnbull leads Bill Shorten 67-21 on preferred prime minister, and records formidable personal ratings of 68% approval and 17% disapproval. Shorten is on 32% approval and 56% disapproval, compared with 39% and 49% in the last Ipsos federal poll two months ago. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Morgan continues its recent record of strong results for the Coalition, who are down half-a-point on the primary vote since a fortnight ago to 46.5%, with Labor steady on 27.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 15.5%. Both measures of two-party preferred are unchanged: respondent-allocated at 56-44 to the Coalition, previous election at 55-45. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3052.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Next to no change from the Essential Research fortnightly average this week, with the Coalition lead steady at 51-49 from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Other results include an eye-wateringly even split of public opinion on whether government should have access to telephone and internet data, with 42% calling it for yes and 41% for no. This close result carries over to the specific question of whether security agencies (49% a lot or some trust, 46% little or none) can be so trusted, but there is less faith in “the Government” (40% and 55%), and less still in telcos (31% and 64%) and other private companies (20% and 73%). A regular question on trust in institutions produces the usual results, with the list topped by state (68%) and federal (67%) police, the High Court (60%) and the ABC (55%), with political parties well to rear of a very large field on 19%. Malcolm Turnbull records a 56% approval rating for “handling the threat of terrorism in Australia”, which is little different from his regular personal ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,512 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition”

  1. sceptic
    Posted Wednesday, October 21, 2015 at 10:02 pm | PERMALINK
    The Shovel (@The_Shovel_)
    21/10/2015, 18:03
    Joe Hockey’s parliamentary pension will cost the taxpayer $180,000 a year. Or just 60,000 middies #auspol

    Not sure if that makes Joe a lifter or a leaner
    ————–these payment are economic porn – the tragedy is the clowns think they deserve it – what other pension can be drawn prematurely like this? and at same time earning a full high income from another sinecure flowing from the retired position – surely he fat man has not fully retired from parliamentary position in way – no wonder bob ellis wants everyone jailed …

  2. 2484
    Pegasus

    My sentiments as well. I will see if I can attend. The issue runs deep and will not go away. If anything, it will grow in importance.

    I’ve been in touch with my friends at the John Curtin Institute of Public Policy (JCIPP) at Curtin Uni. We intend to deliver a seminar – hopefully more than one – on this issue and on indentured workers early in the new year.

    This is one of those things, those insistent and defiant things. It will make Labor face itself again. It will become a crucible for the renewal of our values, our methods and of our aspirations to lead the country.

    It must also – just absolutely must – be an issue on which we can unite. If we are unable to fashion unity around this theme, we will certainly fail.

  3. Good morning.

    Health Minister Sussan Ley introduced the plan to merge two Medicare Safety Nets into Parliament on Tuesday. The changes will lower the spending thresholds required for patients to access benefits, but cap the benefits payable for individual medical services once this has been reached.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/medicare-thousands-more-to-receive-benefits-under-merged-scheme-20151021-gkeuyw.html#ixzz3pESHwho6
    Big projects such as a high-speed rail link between Sydney and Melbourne, benefits the whole country, but our short-term leaders cannot plan long-term infrastructure.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/building-the-nation-australia-will-soon-outgrow-its-cities-20151019-gkd71x.html#ixzz3pESWyLi8
    Gordon. Joe Hockey’s farewell speech helps explain why he is so well-liked across the political divide and why he failed to make the transition from capable minister to successful treasurer, and even prime ministerial contender.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/joe-hockeys-farewell-speech-a-potpourri-of-selfdeprecation-and-denial-20151021-gkev78.html#ixzz3pEStY4Mk
    Australian authorities searching for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 may have missed the wreckage as they canvassed search sites off the coast of Western Australia, American deep-sea investigators have claimed.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/debris-spotted-on-sonar-images-could-be-from-malaysian-airlines-mh370-us-experts-20151021-gkez4p.html#ixzz3pET2mNj0
    In a sudden acceleration of the reform process that risks inflaming tensions with religious conservatives and most Nationals, the Prime Minister has indicated that the plebiscite, while technically non-binding, would itself be the decider of the controversial reform.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/samesex-marriage-malcolm-turnbull-weighs-decisive-plebiscite-plan-20151021-gkeo6l.html#ixzz3pETDA5jW
    Maurice Blackburn lawyers will argue in a state or federal court that poker machines are in breach of consumer law for misleading and deceptive conduct.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/landmark-pokies-legal-challenge-on-the-cards-20151021-gketox.html#ixzz3pETOvvbR
    “It’s hungry country that’s traditionally old gold mining country … And I think you’ve got in there some of the driest country in Victoria.”
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/western-victoria-has-a-dry-core-that-is-ready-to-burn-warn-fire-authorities-20151021-gkeoj2.html#ixzz3pEThrMTw
    Mr Trudeau is cut from the mould of what national leaders tend to look like. Male, tall (188 centimetres), fit and equipped with that magnificent mane, he had all the right ingredients to take high office. Being the son of a former prime minister certainly didn’t hurt, either.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/justin-trudeau-and-the-bald-truth-about-what-it-takes-to-lead-a-nation-20151021-gkegs3.html#ixzz3pEU0rMj5

  4. Australia’s top Defence official has made the startling acknowledgement that the relationship between Defence and the arms industry is vulnerable to ethical breaches because of the steady flow of staff between the two.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/top-defence-official-dennis-richardson-warns-of-ethics-risk-in-industry-revolving-door-20151021-gkf19s.html#ixzz3pEUYsDJi
    The Indian company that plans to develop Australia’s biggest coal mine has registered its interest in a taxpayer funded scheme to help build its infrastructure, a Senate estimates hearing has heard.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasury-officials-met-with-adani-to-discuss-loans-scheme-estimates-hears-20151021-gkf3oy.html#ixzz3pEUlv1zp
    The Coalition’s new family payments package has been met with caution and criticism from Labor and the crossbench, suggesting its passage through the Parliament is not guaranteed.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/watered-down-family-payments-plan-no-certainty-to-pass-senate-20151021-gkere4.html#ixzz3pEV16nlF
    Pascoe. To mangle Shakespeare, nothing in Joe Hockey’s treasurership became him like no longer being it.
    The usual purloining of the quote concludes “like the leaving it”, but Hockey’s farewell speech was largely rubbish, confirming that he had never been up to the job.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/joe-hockeys-biggest-failure-was-his-loyalty-to-tony-abbott-20151021-gkf2bh.html#ixzz3pEVCD97I
    The most common call for major reform is ending the Howard/Costello capital gains tax discount which, combined with negative gearing, set off the 1990s explosion of real estate investment. Negative gearing isn’t so compelling without the CGT discount – expenses deducted at the taxpayer’s full marginal rate, profits taxed at half that.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/what-the-big-end-knows-about-housing-that-mums-and-dads-dont-20151020-gkecea.html#ixzz3pEVq8Hpa
    Biden cast the decision in personal terms, saying that his family had only recently regained its feet after the death of his eldest son, Beau, from cancer in May.
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/oct/21/joe-biden-not-running-president-2016-election

  5. A modern diesel car pumps out more toxic pollution than a bus or heavy truck, according to new data, a situation described as a “disgrace” by one MEP.
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/21/diesel-cars-emissions-toxic-pollution-than-a-bus-data-reveals
    Images harvested from social media sites such as Facebook could be part of the latest counter-terrorism measures, the attorney general’s department has confirmed.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/oct/21/facebook-photos-could-be-taken-for-use-in-national-biometric-database-officials
    UV filtering chemical is killing off baby coral around tourist resorts, particularly in the Caribbean and Hawaii
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/21/sunscreen-contributing-to-decline-of-coral-reefs-study-shows
    Both men denied seeing the notice to produce evidence until at least the following day, and insisted nothing of relevance was thrown out anyway.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/oct/21/cfmeu-chiefs-could-be-charged-over-destruction-of-tonnes-of-documents
    “In France, it is forbidden to define someone by his colour; in Brazil, that’s not the case. Everyone can claim his skin colour and be proud.”
    http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2015/oct/21/pierre-david-nuancier-human-skin-colour-chart
    Oh, and we’re not directly funding climate denial anymore! Your news of the day, reduced to a snarky rant.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-the-end-of-the-age-of-joetitlement-20151021-gkeyde.html#ixzz3pEZg0ZyZ

  6. [No other profession rewards such behaviour. Except perhaps politicians of a certain type.]

    I was largely being humorous. In most areas there are very strict ethical limits and hard rules. I did recently see a prosecution introduce not one but two new bits of evidence (although ultimately not all that relevant) towards the very end of a second retrial for murder (and I’m not sure that is encouraged).

    In tax there isn’t that much room to play Australia’s rules are really really tight, the courts unpredictable (they aren’t that good at tax but they’ll never admit it), although in some jurisdictions you can still get a long way with form trumping substance.

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