The first Fairfax/Ipsos poll since the leadership change is a strong result for the Coalition, recording their lead at 53-47 on previous election preferences, or 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences. The primary votes are 45% for the Coalition, 30% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. Malcolm Turnbull leads Bill Shorten 67-21 on preferred prime minister, and records formidable personal ratings of 68% approval and 17% disapproval. Shorten is on 32% approval and 56% disapproval, compared with 39% and 49% in the last Ipsos federal poll two months ago. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.
UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Morgan continues its recent record of strong results for the Coalition, who are down half-a-point on the primary vote since a fortnight ago to 46.5%, with Labor steady on 27.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 15.5%. Both measures of two-party preferred are unchanged: respondent-allocated at 56-44 to the Coalition, previous election at 55-45. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3052.
UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Next to no change from the Essential Research fortnightly average this week, with the Coalition lead steady at 51-49 from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Other results include an eye-wateringly even split of public opinion on whether government should have access to telephone and internet data, with 42% calling it for yes and 41% for no. This close result carries over to the specific question of whether security agencies (49% a lot or some trust, 46% little or none) can be so trusted, but there is less faith in “the Government” (40% and 55%), and less still in telcos (31% and 64%) and other private companies (20% and 73%). A regular question on trust in institutions produces the usual results, with the list topped by state (68%) and federal (67%) police, the High Court (60%) and the ABC (55%), with political parties well to rear of a very large field on 19%. Malcolm Turnbull records a 56% approval rating for “handling the threat of terrorism in Australia”, which is little different from his regular personal ratings.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 22m22 minutes ago
#Ipsos Poll VIC Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 53 (+11) ALP 47 (-11) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 24m24 minutes ago
#Ipsos Poll NSW Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 55 (+5) ALP 45 (-5) #auspol]
Is there a link to that NSW federal polling?
This chart shows one helluva relief rally. Abbott was hated more than we can imagine.
Let’s hope Turnbull doesnt rush to the polls before Xmas
AFR analysis
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/labors-challenge-persuade-voters-malcolm-turnbull-is-not-an-alp-in-drag-pm-20151018-gkc0nq
[Oct 18 2015 at 7:00 PM Updated 3 mins ago
Labor’s challenge: persuade voters Malcolm Turnbull is not an ‘ALP in drag’ PM
by Laura Tingle
Polite convention in reporting on published opinion polls is that you tend to stick to just your own poll and ignore those of the competition.
That’s going to be a bit hard with the release of the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll given the swings it reports in political fortunes are so dramatic, and that the results are considerably different to those reported by Newspoll just a week ago.]
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/voters-happy-with-change-of-pm-to-the-articulate-and-positive-malcolm-turnbull-20151018-gkc0oc
[Oct 18 2015 at 7:00 PM
Voters happy with change of PM to the ‘articulate’ and ‘positive’ Malcolm Turnbull
by Edmund Tadros]
http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/fairfax-ipsos-poll-dismal-reading-for-labors-bill-shorten-20151018-gkc1jy
[Oct 18 2015 at 6:15 PM
Fairfax Ipsos poll dismal reading for Labor’s Bill Shorten
by Jennifer Hewett]
[This chart shows one helluva relief rally.]
Yep the last Ipsos was back in August and a low water mark with Abbott.
I think it’s pretty straightforward from the polls that Abbott was a pathetic, divisive and despised Prime Minister whose departure has heralded a collective sigh of relief from polling respondents.
3
Calling the election before the NSW and WA boundaries are in place would be a bit messy. The NSW boundaries are due to be determined on the 25th of February and the WA boundaries are due on the 19th of January.
If the new NSW boundaries are not in place then the contiguous pair of seats with the highest vote have to be amalgamated into a single seat. This is bearable.
If the new WA boundaries are not in place then the contiguous pair of seats with the lowest vote have to be amalgamated and then split into 3 seats. This would be messy and should only be used if an urgent election is needed (1.e. no majority can be formed in the HoR in favour of any government).
BK@6
Yes, whoever got rid of him was going to benefit. And so it has come to pass.
Tom the first and best@7
That makes no sense. I think you have your highest and lowest reversed.
I think you have to say every swinging voter has swung and the right wing nut jobs hasn’t stopped it. Bolt; Jones and the rest of them; total value zero.
Mind you this is old news.
bemused
Turnbull’s biggest problems will likely emanate from the RWNJ rump of the Coalition rather than from Labor.
BK@12
And then Labor can exploit it.
bemused
Yes, patience will have to be a virtue for Labor.
I reckon there is some serious consideration by Turnbull, Sindonis and the ex-Howard gang on a DD right now
They have a good trigger, namely the Registered Organisations Bill which ticks all the boxes
– meets precisely the S57 requirement
http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Statistics/Senate_StatsNet/legislation/triggers44
– is on an issue, limiting union power, which is a first order issue for the Libs
– demonstrates the recaciltrant Senate, even though the other potential triggers where never consumated due to Abbott’s indolence
– the momentum is with Turnbull, and the media is dizzy with adoration
Downsides are few, but who cares if the Treasury benches are secured for another 3 years.
– Senate voting system is stuffed, but who cares really. The current crop of minors wont survive (bar X) and the new bunch are more likely to lean Right
– redistributions incomplete in WA and NSW, who cares (other than the AEC)
Lots of boxes ticked
bemused in last thread. Of course I wasn’t giving any credence to the allegations against JG. My point was that at least it was clear what they were. What are the allegations against MT? They seem to boil down to his being rich. That is, the politics of envy.
I don’t believe the 30% primary vote for Labor. It might be a rogue, it might be a ‘relief rally’, probably a combination of botb. A vote for a Turnbull government is still a vote for the 2014 budget, for the IPA, for the spivocracy.
9
I clearly said lowest for NSW and highest for WA. Someone needs their eyes tested.
[Lots of boxes ticked]
Plus a win would give Turnbull all the authority within the partyroom that he currently doesn’t have.
Bob Ellis
[Malcolm Turnbull has joined the Dark Side. He also favours torturing rape victims now, like his colleague ‘Darth’ Dutton, the Galaxy’s ruling sadist.]
politics of envy = You peasants just shut the f#ckup and know your place.
Tom the first and best@18
You are wearing that one out. 😉
Have just seen Macbeth, the movie of the the Globe theatre play (not to be confused with the movie). Vaulting ambition and Macbeth’s existential self-discovery when his wife commits suicide (the famous life is but a poor player who struts and frets his hour upon the stage) has particular relevance to our most recent regicide Turnbull.
This poll makes more sense than the news poll. I mean even I love Malcolm because he is not Abbott. But Turnbull’s day of reckoning will come when he crosses the lnp rightwing (or if he fails to). Either way I cannot see how it can end in other than tragedy or farce (which it will be will largely be POV). A political quartering awaits him. All Shorten has to do is quietly build and wait. Patience is key, and he has shown he knows it.
A good poll or two an election win doesn’t make.
meher baba@16
Have you ever encountered the concept of ‘ethical behaviour’?
That is where he has a weakness.
I’m not sure why Ipsos bothers with the pretense that they are a polling organisation. 53 to Libs in Victoria is a joke. True to form for them though.
15
The Coalition can probably do a deal with the Greens on Senate reform and get it through quickly, although this telegraphs the early election somewhat and the Senate count is slower, more expensive and possibly more likely to end up being successfully challenged and have one or more states` Senate terms fall out of whack with the others.
The ACT boundaries not being finished is no big deal.
The NSW and especially the WA redistributions not being finished is more of a deal because their seat numbers have already changed and thus if the new boundaries are not in place before the writs are issued, summary redistributions have to be conducted in those states.
BK, I agree entirely with your thoughts.
The allegations against Turnbull is that he has hidden some of his investments and income in the Cayman islands to avoid tax, as far as we know perfectly legal. May that should resonate with those who have their tax deducted from their paypackets before they see it. As far as I know no one is criticising Turnbull for being rich.
Hey Puff, did you catch up with zoomster this week?
bemused@25. As Hamlet said “use all men after their deserts and who should scape whipping?”
I’ll bag pollies for poor judgement, bad policy, criminaliry, conflict of interest and nepotism.
But unethical behaviour? Coming from
Labor, the party of factional deals, backstabbing, jobs for the boys, Obeid, etc. Whose hands are going to be clean there?
I told youse all burkey was the better bet!
meher baba@31
OK so on planet meher baba, there are no factional deals, backstabbing, jobs for the boys and Eddie Obeid is Prime Minister.
Cut it out, tax directly effects everyone and Turnbull is PM and should be setting high ethical standards. I expect no less from any PM from whatever side of politics.
Steve777 – the ALP has made no such allegations- the investments are neither hidden nor any tax avoided.
Ethical behavior is not a fight either side can win…they are as bad as one another…with factional deals, “faceless” men, jobs for the boys, paper bags of money, bottles of wine and back stabbing from both the major Parties
Avoiding Conflicts of interest is unethical now?
54-46 2PP for respondent declared preferences.
labor has been lazy – relying on abbots popularity to Coast into office, now it’s failure to modernise and it’s lack of policy development will be cruelly exposed.
Anyone else seen this yet?
[Schadenfreude George
Schadenfreude George – @GeorgeBludger
O.M.G. Just watched the “Unions are racists” ad on TPP from the LNP. F@@king hilarious. Watch it and try not to piss yourself laughing.]
lnp has been lazy – relying on abbots popularity to Coast into office, now it’s failure to modernise and it’s lack of policy development will be cruelly exposed.
fixed.
AussieAchmed@35
But only Turnbull is in the top job and so should set the standard.
Factional deals are not necessarily unethical. Paper bags of money may be criminal, bottles of wine are fairly trivial and back stabbing is just a colourful term for a switch of allegiance.
If it hits 56-44 then it’s DD time.
Gosh, how upset are the voters about what the ALP “uncovered” in the Cayman Islands? Not.
The one consistency across all polls is the popularity of PMMT. Labor needs to be careful that any attempts to attack the person has some substance or it won’t work. Both Howard and Turnbull failed badly when attempting to smear Rudd when Rudd was very popular.
victoria:
No, haven’t seen those ads.
bemused@33: I must have missed something here. As I understand it, MT has allegedly sought to minimise his tax burden via a tax haven. We don’t know how much he has minimised it by, how much tax he has actually paid, or indeed how many other current or former MPs on both sides have made use of tax havens or other tax minimisation schemes, and how much tax they have paid.
In the absence of any sort of code of conduct for pollies re tax (which wouldn’t be a bad thing), I don’t think I can fully appreciate the ethical dimension here until I have a clear picture of what represents the behavioural norm here.
So all these corporations are investing in the Cayman islands to avoid conflicts of interest? Yeah right.
vic,
Already the Libs are trying to undermine their ascendancy in the polls atm.
It took Tony till his first budget. Perhaps Turnbull thinks he can do better than that.
I trust all Bludgers outraged at investments in Tax Havens have been through all their International Funds in their super funds and divested any in Tax Havens.
9 weeks to Christmas. It’s too late to dump Shorten. For better or worse labor is stuck with goggle eyes.
I have little time for those saying there has been no policy development by Labor….just too lazy to research or read