Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition

Malcolm Turnbull opens his Ipsos account with remarkable personal ratings and a big lead on voting intention.

The first Fairfax/Ipsos poll since the leadership change is a strong result for the Coalition, recording their lead at 53-47 on previous election preferences, or 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences. The primary votes are 45% for the Coalition, 30% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. Malcolm Turnbull leads Bill Shorten 67-21 on preferred prime minister, and records formidable personal ratings of 68% approval and 17% disapproval. Shorten is on 32% approval and 56% disapproval, compared with 39% and 49% in the last Ipsos federal poll two months ago. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Morgan continues its recent record of strong results for the Coalition, who are down half-a-point on the primary vote since a fortnight ago to 46.5%, with Labor steady on 27.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 15.5%. Both measures of two-party preferred are unchanged: respondent-allocated at 56-44 to the Coalition, previous election at 55-45. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3052.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Next to no change from the Essential Research fortnightly average this week, with the Coalition lead steady at 51-49 from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Other results include an eye-wateringly even split of public opinion on whether government should have access to telephone and internet data, with 42% calling it for yes and 41% for no. This close result carries over to the specific question of whether security agencies (49% a lot or some trust, 46% little or none) can be so trusted, but there is less faith in “the Government” (40% and 55%), and less still in telcos (31% and 64%) and other private companies (20% and 73%). A regular question on trust in institutions produces the usual results, with the list topped by state (68%) and federal (67%) police, the High Court (60%) and the ABC (55%), with political parties well to rear of a very large field on 19%. Malcolm Turnbull records a 56% approval rating for “handling the threat of terrorism in Australia”, which is little different from his regular personal ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,512 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 46 of 51
1 … 45 46 47 … 51

  2. Knowing Indi, the source of the concern about lack of government advertising has come from local media.

    As a candidate, one of the most common questions I fielded from media owners (as opposed to journalists) was “Why doesn’t the government put more ads in my paper?”

    After all, there’s nothing stopping local media writing articles to inform people about government programs which impact on the local area.

  4. I reaaalllllyyyyyy wish someone would tell female conservative pollies that pinning giant doovilackies (sp?) to their left breast looks quite ridiculous. You don’t see a bloke pinning a toy car to theirs … this is where gender equality should happen immediately

  9. [as long as it was not done retrospectively]

    Of course they need to linger in the trough at the same time as the government cuts family assistance – you can bet that is being done retrospectively. Why would perks for the wealthy be phased out slowly while the social security net is dropped instantly. Wouldn’t a fair country do it the other way around?

  11. It’s Malcolm’s patronising manner that grates on me. As he’s gained confidence this week it’s getting more and more overbearing.

  12. Oh

    l

    Deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop has angered conservative MPs in her own party for failing to deliver a speech in praise of former treasurer Joe Hockey in the Parliament or the Coalition party room.
    ………………………………………
    Several conservative MPs contacted Fairfax Media immediately after Mr Hockey’s valedictory speech to complain that Ms Bishop had not addressed the party room or the Parliament about the former treasurer, and for being late to arrive for the former treasurer’s valedictory

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/did-julie-bishop-snub-joe-hockey-on-his-last-day-in-parliament-20151021-gkejnw.html

  16. JBishop had a long standing meeting to attend to, but some MPs went straight to the media to complain about her. What a nest of vipers

  19. [2232
    Pegasus]

    The unions remain the only instruments that are wholly organised, owned and directed by working people. Even though they have been much weakened in recent decades by a combination of economic, political, technological and cultural forces, they are still vibrant sources of popular activism. It’s not going too far t say that in some respects they are practically the only remaining viable instruments of social and political activism.

    They are profoundly important to the protection, adaptation and extension of democratic and egalitarian values and institutions. Doubtless, this is why the Liberals hate them so much.

    My own view is that Labor would not survive for long without them.

  20. When Abbott was PM, most of the interjections seemed to come from Labor side of the House. It’s strange, but that’s reversed – now it’s the Libs doing most of the shouting. Something must be troubling them. Are Labor’s questions hitting where t hurts??

  21. TPOF

    Point taken

    Best not discussed. BUT the Scotland yard investigations are SO shocking that I cannot ignore them. Covering up the murder of a 10 year old boy is beyond my tolerance limit, even if it was 40 years ago.

  29. zoom @ 2252

    [As a candidate, one of the most common questions I fielded from media owners (as opposed to journalists) was “Why doesn’t the government put more ads in my paper?”

    After all, there’s nothing stopping local media writing articles to inform people about government programs which impact on the local area.]

    No doubt these media owners run sanctimonious opinion pieces and editorials bemoaning the dependence of people on government hand-outs, especially the poor, the ill and the single parent families.

  31. “@BuzzFeedOzPol: Turnbull: “The consequence of a yes vote in the plebiscite will be that same sex marriage will be legal in Oz”

    Labor MPs yell: HOW?!?!”

  32. dtt @ 2271

    The difference is between a list of names that I could draw up now out of my imagination and an allegation backed by evidence, possibly weak and unsubstantiated, but something to go on. As I understand it, this list of names has nothing to substantiate it other than its own shock value.

    The Royal Commission has shown conclusively that child sexual and other assault in institutions has occurred, and probably continues to, and that people with authority in those institutions cover up that assault in many way, usually further victimising the victims and protecting the perpetrators. Indeed, the single greatest achievement (among many) of the RC is that it has allowed the victims and their families to come forward in the knowledge that, for the first time, their claims will be given credence.

    This is also what happened in the UK as information has come out. But Heffernan’s list has no alleged victims to make claims, no substantive documentation or anything else of that kind. It is a list, like a chain letter, that appears to have done the rounds for 20 or more years without anyone investigating because there were no leads, other than the expectation that police or tribunals or commissions actually go looking for leads.

    Like the allegations against Bill Shorten insinuated but never stated last night, we are left with the feeling that his failure to show he did not do something his accusers were too cowardly to state explicitly meant that he was guilty. Ditto for Julia Gillard and the incredible moving feast that were the slush fund allegations. It’s the same thing here, although at least no names have been smeared because even Heffernan knows, after his last escapade, that such explicit misuse of coward’s castle would not be tolerated.

  34. [It’s Malcolm’s patronising manner that grates on me. As he’s gained confidence this week it’s getting more and more overbearing.]

    Hubris

  37. Labor would have done much more for labour rights in this country if it had voted down ChAFTA and explained why. Instead it folded. Why? Because the major political parties pursue free trade agreements for their symbolic value, not for their practical benefit. It gives politicians and public servants a chance to pose for photo ops and pronounce the grand-sounding phrase “free trade”. Then when they are asked what they are doing about our high unemployment, high mental illness economy, they invoke the magical phrase “free trade agreement” to create the appearance of achievement.

  38. briefly

    Despite the need for sections of the union movement to become more professional, I don’t see how the ALP can formally separate from the unions without in effect losing their core purpose.

  39. On Fraudband, this is good news for Labor, isn’t it. Many on this blog (well, mainly me) thought it was inconceivable Malcolm wouldn’t change tack and endorse fibre. Not on your nelly. He’s doubling down on stupidity.
    Where’s zoilords? How’s the tech industry going to react to this?

  40. [Many on this blog (well, mainly me) thought it was inconceivable Malcolm wouldn’t change tack and endorse fibre. Not on your nelly. He’s doubling down on stupidity.]

    I was with you on this. I honestly didn’t consider he would deliberately vandalise our economy. But sadly I think Josh Taylor has it right. Very few care.

  41. NICHOLAS – It’s pretty hard for Australia to go back to its major trading partner and tell it that we had a deal … and now we don’t have a deal. Labor has made it clear this is not the deal they would have signed. But they are, to a degree hostage to the government of the day.

  43. Mexican

    I can think of a hundred ways in which labor could get rid of the union stranglehold but still keep their union connection and purpose.

    Suggestion 1: reduce the union % at conferences to say 10% but ALSO give each union member ALP membership on payment of a nominal sum and a bonafide signed application form. Unions could get an extra share of conference votes for each 100 ALP members.

    Ensure that union leaders are in themselves representative of the unions. Ballots are already run by the Electoral Office. I would say that Must go

  45. I just got this from the NBN. I feel really reassured. I found out yesterday that we’ll be on fixed wireless.

    [Hello BK,

    We haven’t reached your address yet, but the nbn™ network is on its way to you.

    As soon as we have an update on the availability we will be in touch.]

  47. [45.WWP – You’re probably right. What a debacle Yet NZ will have 80% fibre by 2022!]

    Yeah there will be a lights come on moment as internationally applications and business uses begin to use and need proper broadband. With the development of IT we always see software expand to use additional available resources. I’m guessing it won’t take long.

    We are likely to have suburbs not yet NBN’ed and suburbs demanding full fibre to the premises fight at the same time.

  50. BK@2295

    I just got this from the NBN. I feel really reassured. I found out yesterday that we’ll be on fixed wireless.

    Hello BK,

    We haven’t reached your address yet, but the nbn™ network is on its way to you.

    As soon as we have an update on the availability we will be in touch.

    We’ve got fixed wireless, nominally 25/5, normally 20/4.5 lately.

    Half the price and 15 times the speed from when we were on copper from telstra.

Comments Page 46 of 51
1 … 45 46 47 … 51

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *