Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition

Malcolm Turnbull opens his Ipsos account with remarkable personal ratings and a big lead on voting intention.

The first Fairfax/Ipsos poll since the leadership change is a strong result for the Coalition, recording their lead at 53-47 on previous election preferences, or 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences. The primary votes are 45% for the Coalition, 30% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. Malcolm Turnbull leads Bill Shorten 67-21 on preferred prime minister, and records formidable personal ratings of 68% approval and 17% disapproval. Shorten is on 32% approval and 56% disapproval, compared with 39% and 49% in the last Ipsos federal poll two months ago. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Morgan continues its recent record of strong results for the Coalition, who are down half-a-point on the primary vote since a fortnight ago to 46.5%, with Labor steady on 27.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 15.5%. Both measures of two-party preferred are unchanged: respondent-allocated at 56-44 to the Coalition, previous election at 55-45. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3052.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Next to no change from the Essential Research fortnightly average this week, with the Coalition lead steady at 51-49 from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Other results include an eye-wateringly even split of public opinion on whether government should have access to telephone and internet data, with 42% calling it for yes and 41% for no. This close result carries over to the specific question of whether security agencies (49% a lot or some trust, 46% little or none) can be so trusted, but there is less faith in “the Government” (40% and 55%), and less still in telcos (31% and 64%) and other private companies (20% and 73%). A regular question on trust in institutions produces the usual results, with the list topped by state (68%) and federal (67%) police, the High Court (60%) and the ABC (55%), with political parties well to rear of a very large field on 19%. Malcolm Turnbull records a 56% approval rating for “handling the threat of terrorism in Australia”, which is little different from his regular personal ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,512 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 45 of 51
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  2. [2199
    MTBW

    briefly

    He should be expelled but who would expel him?]

    I believe the Senate has the power to exclude its own members. If he were expelled he would be replaced by another Liberal appointed by the NSW Government.

  3. Interesting twist.

    [Ben Cubby
    Ben Cubby – Verified account ‏@bencubby

    Girl in suitcase was daughter of woman found in Belanglo forest, police believe. http://bit.ly/1LCmRah
    smh.com.au
    smh.com.au
    Embedded image
    Girl in suitcase was daughter of woman found in Belanglo forest, police believe

    The identities of two females, whose remains were found dumped in NSW and South Australia years apart, have been revealed following a major police breakthrough.
    View on web
    6:32 PM – 20 Oct 2015
    9 RETWEETS1 FAVORITE]

  4. don@2198

    don@2196

    daretotread@2181

    136KB

    Bloody copper network


    Did you find out if you can get fixed wireless yet?

    If not, suck it up.


    Here’s the coverage for Sydney and Newcastle:

    http://bigair.com.au/resources/sydney

    and for Melbourne:

    http://bigair.com.au/resources/melbourne

    Whoops, that is for business.

    try this for residential, type in your address. It looks like there are lots of companies providing service.

    http://www.harbourisp.com.au/residential/nbn-broadband/nbn-wireless

    http://www.activ8me.net.au/internet/nbn-fixed-wireless-plans

  5. lizzie

    Prissy Pyne was an early fan of the word. In reply to a question about his late change to backing Turnbull he said “In politics you need to be agile and flexible” (insert smirking)

  6. “@andrew_porter: Assistant Minister for Multicultural Affairs uses @PressClubAust speech to say marriage equality not accepted by diverse communities. Myopic”

  7. briefly

    [

    He should be expelled but who would expel him?]
    Heff’ would have a bit of immunity in that he was supposedly the dirt distribution man for Howard over a number of years. If so then we would like still have some embarrassing stuff people would rather he not mention.

  8. briefly

    [I believe the Senate has the power to exclude its own members. If he were expelled he would be replaced by another Liberal appointed by the NSW Government.]

    Let’s hope that someone decides to do that he is an embarrassment and a disgrace.

  9. [After an astonishing appearance on national television on Monday night defending his partner, former union heavyweight Kathy Jackson, it can now be revealed that Michael Lawler, the embattled vice-president of the Fair Work Commission, is pushing NSW police to prosecute News Corp journalists.]

    There would be a few PB’ers conflicted about which side to support on this one.

  10. 2207
    poroti

    Yes, this rings a bell. He knows where the skeletons are…the keeper of the ossuary. Clearly, he’s spent too much time with the decomposing careers of Liberal failures.

  11. [“@andrew_porter: Assistant Minister for Multicultural Affairs uses @PressClubAust speech to say marriage equality not accepted by diverse communities. Myopic”]

    Guytaur – Says a lot about why Turnbull won’t move away from Abbott’s plebiscite before the election. He wants to keep the Western Sydney vote.

  16. [ There would be a few PB’ers conflicted about which side to support on this one. ]

    Its pretty straight forward, you hope they damage each other as much as possible – while you sit back laughing.

  18. [ Let’s hope that someone decides to do that he is an embarrassment and a disgrace. ]

    Unless he ups the ante and names names under parliamentary privilege this all goes where ?

  19. [Unless he ups the ante and names names under parliamentary privilege this all goes where ?]

    Where it belongs, nowhere and down the gutter.

  22. Well we only have 5 ex PMs alive – Hawke, Keating, Howard, Rudd and Gillard. I cannot see any one of them as a Paedophile.

    Mind you given the HORROR stories coming from the UK, I would no longer be surprised if groups of MPs meet in dark corners to boil babies for soup) (along with koala, tigers, elephants and bilbies). (Briefly FFS do not take offence. It is not a political reference, to any activity in the past, simply a statement of an absurd action. Since we are talking Paedophilia, it is appropriate to use a kids theme. Poisoning the kindergarten porridge was a favourite of my youth.

  25. daretotread – as far as I know, nothing Heffernan said rules out the “former PM” being someone who is now dead. The alleged document may date from the 90s, and the allegations may be older than that.

  27. Joe Hockey felt the need to defend his reputation as Treasurer upon leaving office. I wonder why?
    [The former treasurer defended the measures, again warning of the challenges of an ageing population and calling for an end to the age of entitlement, but he conceded that while the Abbott government was good at policy it “struggled with politics”.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-21/joe-hockey-reflects-on-political-career-in-farewell-speech/6872268

    So the budget was OK – it just wasn’t sold very well. Well that explains everything! And this admission is so humble of Nice Joe. Of course the budget was great. We just failed to see the hidden genius of cutting government spending juts as a downturn was approaching. Yes, genius.

    And Joe sees clearly now what we should have done, indeed what two Treasury Secs advised him to do, but which he did not do.
    [“We should be wiser and more consistent on tax concessions to help pay for that, in particular tax concessions on superannuation should be carefully pared back.

    “In that framework, negative gearing should be skewed towards new housing so that there is an incentive to add to the housing stock rather than an incentive to speculate on existing property.”]
    Never mind, Joe. People in the private banking sector are probably lining up to get expertise of your caliber to look after their money. No need for a cushy government post for a brilliant financial mind like yours. ROTFL 😀

  28. DTT
    [Don

    Thanks for that

    But sadly no connection to the NBN at this time.]
    Don you are a lucky man. Live in a marginal seat? We might get upgraded copper here in 18 months. As more people have signed up to Netflix etc our existing broadband speed has actually gotten worse. NBN fibre is nowhere in sight (in Adelaide eastern suburbs).

  29. lizzie 22226

    Thanks. It will be interesting to see how far Turnbull gets simply by ditching the most insane of Abbott’s policies. He might well be re-elected in 2016 without actually making any real reforms.

    Have a good day all.

  30. So far Turnbull is doing things the smart way. No PM picks. Issues go to Cabinet so changes become a group decision. I will be very surprised if policy changes don’t start coming once the blood has settled.

  31. Regarding Heffernan and the alleged document listing suspects, isn’t this the same Bill Heffernan who alleged to parliament that a High Court justice was trawling for under-aged prostitutes, only for it to turn out that the “evidence” he tabled in parliament were forged Com-car tickets?

    Same accuser, same sort of accusation, same prejudices, same credibility. This time he hasn’t even tabled the “evidence”. Why is Heffernan obsessed with sex allegations?

    Public interest value = zero.

  32. briefly
    [The only organs that are really currently committed to trying to effect change are the unions – organs that are just a shadow of their former selves.]
    Only 17% of the work force are members of a union.

    Sixty per cent of unions are affiliated with the ALP which represents only 50 per cent of union members.

    Interesting statistics conveyed at a very informative and thought- provoking public speakers night organised and hosted by the local Greens Party branch.

    Its topic was ‘The importance of trade unions in a civil society’.

    There were three speakers:

    1. Professor John Howe who spoke on the role that trade unions have played in upholding labour standards and rights as co-regulators of the labour system.

    He is the son of a former Labor politician and is no longer a member of the ALP which his father is not happy about. He disclosed he is an occasional Greens voter depending on who is running in his electorate 🙂

    2. Justin Mullaly, Deputy President of the Victorian Branch of the Australian Education Union. He spoke on the importance of grass-roots union activity in a civil society using his experience as a point of reference.

    He believes the focus need to be on women to grow the union movement.

    3. Lisa Darmanin, Executive President of the Victorian Branch of the Australian Services Union, spoke on the achievements of the trade union movement with a focus on female workers, and also family violence as a workplace issue. She addressed the issue of the need for collective organising through union activity to create real change, and also talked about current threats to that agenda.

  34. Leroy

    OK so we can rule out Rudd, Gillard and Abbott since they were not around in the 90s. Howard too because he was not former PM.

    Fraser, McMahon, Gorton, Holt or Menzies. Take your pick. Gorton was a known ladies man, so probably no little boys for him.

  35. https://newmatilda.com/2015/10/21/labor-caucus-to-debate-new-motion-challenging-offshore-detention/
    [Labor is again facing an internal challenge to its support of offshore detention, with a motion to Caucus calling on the party to demand the government improve independent oversight or close the centres on Manus Island and Nauru.

    The motion, moved by Fremantle MP Melissa Parke, points to credible reports of abuses, assaults, rapes, and self-harm among asylum seekers and refugees on Nauru and Manus Island, as well as a “culture of secrecy” surrounding the detention system.
    ::
    Marles recently announced Labor would introduce a Bill to mandate the reporting of abuse in detention centres, despite the fact the party voted with the government to pass The Border Force Act, which criminalises the disclosure of information by those working in detention centres. There is no sign Labor intends to alter that provision, should the party be returned to government.]

  38. [31.So far Turnbull is doing things the smart way. ]

    Flying a rape victim here then flying her back without the abortion, watering down the law to help tax cheats avoid scrutiny – he must be very proud.

  39. [Marles recently announced Labor would introduce a Bill to mandate the reporting of abuse in detention centres, despite the fact the party voted with the government to pass The Border Force Act, which criminalises the disclosure of information by those working in detention centres.]

    And there is no contradiction here, given that Labor believes the Whistleblowers Act provides protection for workers speaking out against abuses.

    We don’t have a test case to work out whether it does or not, but given that Labor has repeatedly stated that this is so, one would anticipate that if a court ruled that workers weren’t protected, a Labor government would change the legislation.

    In the meantime, any suggestion that workers face two years’ jail for speaking out is spurious, particularly given that there are penalties (in other legislation) if they don’t speak out.

  40. Hockey now making some sensible comments about negative gearing, superannuation and the NBN makes his actual record as Treasurer and influential member of Caucus seem even worse IMO.

  41. Ian McAuley: https://newmatilda.com/2015/10/21/labors-attack-on-malcolm-turnbulls-wealth-should-have-focussed-on-fairness/
    [Research in behavioural economics finds that inequality, in itself, is not of great concern to people. But people are concerned, very concerned, with fairness. The way in which some do better than others counts.
    ::::
    That’s where a Labor Party, worthy of its name, should be focussing – on developing policies that align contribution and reward, and making sure entrenched privilege does not block social mobility (on mobility they have a good story in the Gonski reforms, but they seem reluctant to run it).]

  44. Harper Competition Review: https://theconversation.com/why-labor-should-come-to-the-party-on-the-competition-review-49354
    [Media reports suggest the Turnbull government is ready to tackle the substantial opposition to the proposed changes by big business but also by the Labor party.
    :::
    The proposed changes to Section 46 make a great deal of sense. While it’s clear why big business would oppose such changes, the rationale for Labor’s opposition is less clear. Its concern with chilling competition seems misplaced especially given the two additional safeguards proposed in the Harper review.]

  45. Canadian Liberal prime minister designate Justin Trudeau has confirmed that Canada will withdraw its fighter jets from the US-led mission against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

    In his first news conference following the sweeping majority Liberal victory in Canada’s federal election, the visibly fatigued leader said he had spoken with US president Barack Obama in a phone call during which he discussed his intention to pull Canada’s fighter jets out of the anti-Isis campaign.

    Will Australia’s MSM bother to analyse?…. No

  47. [I think this whole chase-the-pedos stuff should be dropped.]

    By simply speculating out loud the identity of this person, we are giving credence to an allegation that has no more substance than a name on a list drawn up by unknown persons for unknown purposes.

    Your name, my name or DTT’s name could be on a similar list for no reason other than someone wants to smear us or damage us in some way.

    I’m not going there.

  49. If you get Crikey have a look at the meeting between Kerry O’Brien and Keating at the Opera House last night.

    I just love Keating and his style,

  50. [The man who has made a name out of advising Australia’s wealthiest families and business leaders, Mark Leibler, says he agrees that the Turnbull government needs to eradicate tax breaks that disproportionately benefit the rich.

    Mr Leibler, an experienced tax lawyer and head of prominent law firm Arnold Bloch Leibler, told Fairfax Media he agreed that it was time to look at scaling back or eliminating superannuation concessions, negative gearing and capital gains tax, as long as it was not done retrospectively, and delivered as part of a wider package of personal income tax cuts, company tax cuts, and GST reform.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/tax-adviser-to-the-rich-mark-leibler-says-get-rid-of-tax-shelters-for-wealthy-20151021-gkeggm.html#ixzz3pAXsoca8

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