The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week records a strong move back to Labor, which partly reflects the Coalition’s soft Newspoll result this week. However, it’s also indicative of how sensitive the model is short-term fluctuations now that it’s using the start of the Turnbull era of year zero, and thus only has a small number of data points. The story on the primary vote is that the Greens have recovered some of the ground they lost over the previous weeks, with the Labor primary vote remaining steady. The difference all this makes to the seat projection is rather modest, with the Coalition dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Queensland. The leadership ratings from Newspoll give a further boost to Malcolm Turnbull’s already strong net approval rating, but the other indicators are essentially unchanged. Preferred prime minister and Turnbull’s net approval are still being determined through weighted averages of all polling since the leadership change, rather than trend measures.
What’s more:
• The meeting of the New South Wales Liberal Party’s state council on the weekend, chiefly noted for the heckling delivered to the Prime Minister, saw the demise of a proposal for all preselections to be conducted by plebiscites of party members, in place of the current system where the vote is divided between branch delegates and head office. This was despite just such a reform being advocated by a post-election review conducted by a panel headed by John Howard. However, a compromise resolution will see plebiscites conducted in one federal seat before next year’s election, two for the subsequent federal election due in 2019, and two for the next state election, also due in 2019.
• Tom McIlroy of the Canberra Times identifies Christina Hobbs, a United Nations World Food Program program officer, as a possible starter for the Greens’ Senate preselection in the Australian Capital Territory. However, the report also cites a party source saying its resources were likely to be concentrated elsewhere, particularly on “potentially difficult fights in Queensland, NSW and South Australia”.
K17
By contrast in a man less than 35, shaved head, singlets and tattoos indicate a liberal voter (I am serious, although some may be army)
WOW
Speed really moving at 2 KB
Bloody, bloody Telstra
lizzie @ 1535
I don’t have any time for George Newhouse, her lawyer, either.
Please note, though, that unlike the Troll last night I am not prejudging her situation. I don’t know anything about it to be honest.
My concern is there is such an absence of trust between the two sides in this utterly fraught human and policy conundrum that progress is not being made where it could be. In particular, every assertion and every claim by an asylum seeker (or someone representing them) is not only greeted by the Government (including the Department and contractors) with scepticism, but also by many in the general public who are only too happy to find a justification not to care.
Maybe Abyan was faking it (the rape, the desire for a termination or both); maybe she was set up by the government to fail because of the way they handled her once she reached Australia; maybe she is the victim of a government anxious to avoid a legal right to stay being founded on its ‘good will’ in bringing her to Australia; and maybe she was badly advised by her lawyers, who deliberately did not seek a translator or did not ask for counselling until the last moment or told her to refuse the termination at the medical appointment or more than one of these things.
The bottom line is that she is back in Nauru without a termination and with a bigger question mark over her rape allegation. We just don’t know what is true and what is not. And this allows everyone to believe what they want to believe, rather than actually treat the asylum seekers as individuals and humans (good and bad).
[“I was very disappointed with Alberici’s interview regarding the lass flown back to Nauru. She took a very aggressive position and at no time tried to find out the facts from the lawyer, consequently the impression anyone might take away was that the woman was just being difficult, and her plead for an abortion was a ‘stunt’.”]
Well it was a stunt.
And her lawyer was talking shit. He said she never got any medical care. Then called out on the lie, 5 seconds later he admits she has had medical care.
Then he claims he has no contact with his client. If that’s the case why did they have a injunction ready to roll? Do lawyers always just randomly launch lawfare for people they have not got permission from?
And the most DAMNING evidence from this whole affair for most Australians is that for weeks and weeks this lady has been DEMANDING to come to Australia for an abortion. Australia then spends hunreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars chartering her here and now she decides she wants to have a think about it?
BULLSHIT!
This woman and leftwing lawyers played the Governments Bluff and they LOST.
And Back. She. Goes.
[ Jeb Bush really looks good when you compare him to Trump and Carson.
Fiorina would be my pick.
She is a nasty piece of work.]
She is the least conservative of the realistic Repug chances.
GG
My wife keeps saying the same thing. My brother in law is a property lecturer and keeps telling us to go that way.
Personally I believe in Nassim Taleb and want 90% in bonds and 10% in highly speculative stabs in the dark.
And right on cue, my post at 1553 is followed by a declaration from the Troll that asserts that Abyan is just like him.
Based on no other evidence than the certainty that if he sees the world in such bleakly cynical tones, then everyone else must behave the same way.
[ABC 24: Prime minister Malcolm Turnbull promises to expedite the appeals process for New Zealanders facing deportation from Australia.]
I don’t think that was quite what was wanted. Why don’t we have reciprocal rights on citizenship, for instance.
[
1549
Greensborough Growler
Diogs,
Perhaps you’d like to consider real estate investment.
I’m sure I can assist you!
]
Some business premises in the Cayman Islands, for example?
😉
DTT
I suggest that anybody who invests their entire retirement fund in a bank and relies on the interest to keep them going needs better financial advice.
[“I don’t think that was quite what was wanted. Why don’t we have reciprocal rights on citizenship, for instance.”]
New Zealanders can apply for citizenship in Australia after 2 Years just like anyone else, so you are wrong as always.
If after living here for 30 Years they haven’t been bothered.. whose fault is that?
BTW.. I don’t see the Poms whinging about us kicking their citizens out, what makes the Kiwis so special?
TPOF
It’s all a mess, isn’t it… I wasn’t impressed by Newhouse because he could have made a better fist of answering Alberici. OK, she was aggressive, but several times I could see him floundering when the ‘correct’ answer was obvious. I don’t think I’d choose him to represent me. Very weak.
It appears that Aust residents in NZ are allowed to vote. That’s pretty democratic.
[New Zealanders can apply for citizenship in Australia after 2 Years just like anyone else, so you are wrong as always]
In fact, New Zealanders cannot apply for citizenship if they are here as New Zealanders. New Zealanders are here under Special Category Visas, that enable them to stay indefinitely with full work rights. But to become citizens they need to be permanent residents first, and SCVs are not permanent residence visas. In order to be permanent residents they need to apply and go through the same processing as nationals of other countries. If there is not a basis for granting permanent residence, they must be refused, but can remain indefinitely as holders of SCVs.
daretotread
Posted Saturday, October 17, 2015 at 2:20 pm | PERMALINK
$1 mill will not get Abbott far if he has to pay a mortgage – also if their is trouble at home, $1 mill would probably allow he and Margie a small unit each in Manly.
If say there is problems in the marriage, then with a standard 60/40 split of assets and say a 30/70 share of income, $1 mill and a pension of $250 would leave Margie with the House with Abbott enough to by a unit and an income of $175.
———-you forgot two zeros
TBA
I would have thought with the LNP losing High Court challenges 6 to 1 & Joe blow losing his shirt suing Fairfax you wouldnt be so confident in your opinions.
and one assumes the pension is untaxed
…we need a tougher regulation on untaxed incomes, black economy, higher incomes generally etc in this country — before charging poor to visit doctors … we need a small business care with economics – more prudential care — and more public services. (q. how will public spending to private/church schools ever be properly regulated and justified)
turnbull is wrong person in 2015 even if ok before GFC
TBA
If after living here for 30 Years they haven’t been bothered.. whose fault is that?
Are you talking about Abbott here?
$1 million if managed and lets not forget Tony will receive a healthy parliamentary pension as well so he should if smart never struggle or go hungry.
Few of my old T shirts would fit me now.
lizzie @ 1562
Newhouse was the legal representative of Vivian Alvarez, the Australian citizen who was deported to the Philippines in 2001 because nobody knew who she was and the ethos at the time was to get unlawful non-citizens out of the country before they could lodge court applications and stay indefinitely through the use of carefully timed legal action.
Her case was an absolute tragedy, fixed only by her repatriation and a hefty compensation payout (fully justified I may add). I don’t know if Newhouse grandstanding made the slightest bit of difference to the outcome, compared to a quieter lawyer. However, her case (along with the less meritorious one of Cornelia Rau) were used to beat the Department over the head. In particular, almost all the commentary suggested they were the tip of an iceberg of malfeasance, whereas they were the whole iceberg.
I always thought that Vivian Alvarez’s case was one that reflected the tragedy of a pitched battle between the authorities and the feral advocates using whatever legal powers were available to both.
daretotread. Never been a liberal voter. But in my youth my sisters used to present me with new clothes every birthday. They presumably thought polo shirts were the thing – and I didn’t care. If anything, I dress like a dag, which means I wear the traditional uniform of left-wing voters. That is why my wife has now declared my wardrobe a fashion crime scene and its putting various exhibits in green garbage bins.
Ross
Actually the super funds these days invest olde people’s income in relativity low risk returns, so 3.5% is not that out of whack with modern reality. Younger people can get much more but not so much older people who of necessity are more risk averse.
DTT
Sounds as if you might have an unstable copper connection. Surely the Telstra guys could check where it is – at your house or at the junction box?
TPOF
From what you’ve written previously, many of the “good guys” of immigration are gone. It’s a shame that all we ever hear is the spin.
K17
I had better come clean – I also used to buy polo shirts for the men in my family. Actually I quite like them, but facts is facts and they almost always scream Liberal!!!!!!
Lizzie
I have had teck guys out twice and they can find nothing.
You would think when someone is in detention without having done anything wrong to rise above level of evil as a minimum you’d ensure:
The conditions were excellent.
Any claim of any physical or mental abuse was investigated immediately, extensively and independently.
They would have unlimited access to lawyers and absolute first class medical care.
I think when you are failing all those tests those responsible should be jailed. Seriously.
On the positive side someone I know who has always been very anti refugee and frankly racist was appalled at the stunt of the Australian government spending all that money on an evil stunt to fly her out of the country to ensure she couldn’t even meet her lawyer.
What crimes against humanity must be going on to justify 10s if not 100 of thousands of dollars just to stop her seeing a lawyer.
The ICC should investigate and indict if / as appropriate
daretotread – I was undercover!
Lizzie
You are of course almost certainly right
My copper connection is dead but Telstra will do everything possible to avoid fixing it.
Way to go 28KB
DTT
When my copper failed so that my internet became unstable, the Telstra guys kindly linked me up to a different something-or-other in the junction box way down the road, and also did a bit of bodgying where the copper entered the house, meanwhile warning me that the whole thing might collapse in 6 months. Couple of years later, still OK, but who knows…
Dropped to 2KB (at that stage it cannot even load the speed test) and now roaring at 78KB.
Sorry for boring you lot, but in part I am trying to keep a record for Telstra – William will be happy with the clicks.
Lizzie
No such luck yet, but i am hoping that next week they may do something.
Hardest part is to convince them their is a problem. Yesterday when the tech guy was here we managed to get my connected whizzing along at 1,850 KB. I was happy. Two hrs later back to 25KB
DTT
“Actually the super funds these days invest olde people’s income in relativity low risk returns, so 3.5% is not that out of whack with modern reality. Younger people can get much more but not so much older people who of necessity are more risk averse.”
This is quite untrue. It is misleading and simplistic.
1. “Old people” can have their Super investments in any proportion of conservative or risky areas they chose. The Super fund does not decide, unless the “old people” chose to be totally hands off.
2. In 2013-2014, a really good year, our super returns ranged from 10% to 25% across the asset range we (and our adviser ) chose. The all up (composite) return was 13%.
3. In 2014-2015the range was 6% to 18%. The all up return was 11%.
4. This year is tougher but we are on track for an all up return of 9% at this stage.
Incidentally, an ex Australian Rugby League player I know is the Education Officer for a large national Super fund. He told me that less than 2% of contributors in the accumulation phase avail themselves of the 2 free financial advice interviews available to all members each year.
Anyone who has super only earning 3.5% needs to have a good hard look at what’s going on.
Back at 16KB now. Sigh!!!
For those who are interested in the difference between Labor’s NBN and the Turnbull Fraudband, the NBN was going to replace all the copper wire for 93% of households with future ready optical fibre. Fraudband has optical fibre going to neighbourhood boxes and the remainder of each journey using existing copper wire unless it is deemed unusable, in which case it will be replaced with new copper.
The devil is in the deeming. You need to hope for a good, experienced technician who can make a sound judgement as to the use of the copper wiring and its longevity. Otherwise, you can be nominally attached to faster internet, get crap and be constantly fobbed off and have to prove that you are not getting the service you are paying for.
That, of course, is beside the fact that even the best condition copper is severely future limited, will never be as fast as optical fibre, will have much greater speed limitations than optical fibre, will have terrible upload speeds compared to optical fibre, will have much more latency than optical fibre and will be a lot less smooth than optical fibre.
But for most of us, it’s better than we have now – so we need to be grateful that we have a government that has saved a big fat zero by reverting to Fraudband, while delivering a system that is lucky to be half as good. And will need to start being upgraded before the initial roll-out is even finished.
TPOF@1571
You are right about the Alvarez case.
People should have done gaol time over that, and I don’t mean the low level thugs and goons who virtually abducted her.
If Beatty hadn’t been so piss-weak, he would have got his Queensland wallopers to do some investigating and arrest those who gave the orders.
[“You would think when someone is in detention without having done anything wrong to rise above level of evil as a minimum you’d ensure:”]
She isn’t in detention.
[“The conditions were excellent.”]
Good enough for the Nauruans, good enough for the blow-ins
[“Any claim of any physical or mental abuse was investigated immediately, extensively and independently.”]
She hasn’t made a formal police report. She refuses to do so.
[“hey would have unlimited access to lawyers and absolute first class medical care.”]
LOL??! What?!? Even Australian citizens don’t get that.
[“On the positive side someone I know who has always been very anti refugee and frankly racist was appalled at the stunt of the Australian government spending all that money on an evil stunt to fly her out of the country to ensure she couldn’t even meet her lawyer.”]
Disagree. Most Australians see this woman for what she was. An opportunist who has taken Australia’s goodwill for granted and pissed all over it by refusing to see the doctors she has been demanding for weeks to see.
The ABC and Fairfax who have been all over this story for weeks have gone quiet and Fairfax has now even started using the “alleged” word now for her rape which is a stark change from a week ago.
This has blown up in the lefts face and no amount of spin will get the Aussie public behind this womans plight now. Aussies believe in a fair-go, but this also don’t like people taking the piss and taking us for mugs.
Lizzie
Technology baffles me. In september I came home from a month away to phone the phone was dead but my adsl2 net connection was still working.
That was good Because I was able to report the fault on line!
It is the second time this has happened in the past few years. the Telstra guy who came and fossicked about in the pit outside my house tried to explain it but it made no sense.
I can live without the phone but not the net.
daretotread@1577
Try asking if they can give you a free 4G connection until they fix your ADSL.
WWP @ 1578
Well said!
Pigs might fly 🙁
ross
Did they get it all working again, or are you still phoneless?
TotallyBigotedArsehat is obviously happy that the LNP have finally managed to generate a new outrage sufficiently awful to take the attention of the Turnbott and his tax affairs.
George Newhouse:
2 April 2015: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/human-rights-lawyer-george-newhouse-wins-defamation-case-against-news-corps-andrew-bolt-20150402-1mdkpc.html
[Human rights lawyer George Newhouse has won his defamation case against controversial News Corp blogger Andrew Bolt.
In the NSW Supreme Court on Thursday, Justice Lucy McCallum ordered a verdict for Mr Newhouse and said News Corp was to pay his legal costs.
The terms of the order – agreed to by both parties – requires the article to be taken down from News Corp’s various online sites. Other terms of the settlement are confidential.
Mr Newhouse sued over an opinion piece written by Bolt on July 10, 2014, which carried the headline “Fearmongers’ hateful fraud” in The Herald Sun.
It was also published in The Daily Telegraph, The Courier Mail and The Advertiser.
In it, Bolt claimed Mr Newhouse was part of the “refugee lobby”, which, he said, had fraudulently asserted that certain Sri Lankan people who had arrived by boat in Australia were genuine asylum seekers.]
” to take the attention off the Turnbott … “
Lizzie
No all is good now, just took a few days to get the phone sorted.
[Dropped to 2KB (at that stage it cannot even load the speed test) and now roaring at 78KB.]
That’s truly awful. I’m running at 100 mega bits right now, but that’s the HFC (Foxtel) cable, sort of a hybrid optical/copper setup.
Upload from here is only 2 megabits, which is the catch with HFC apparently.
Why they just couldn’t have built the bloody NBN, I’ll never know. It’s a scandal of huge proportions.
I’m not just talking “tech-head” here. The potential for a nation hooked up to FTTP, where anywhere you went or chose to live you could hook into the world at virtually unlimited speeds was unbelievably good. And they went and ruined it so Murdoch’s footy investment, his crappy fifth-run movies and poxy, commercial-ridden has-been TV shows wouldn’t have as much competition.
The irony was that Murdoch’s business model didn’t need for services like Netflix to completely replace it. Only just a portion. And it seems Netflix is well on the way to achieving that already.
We lost the NBN for absolutely nothing and got Malcolm’s Spaghetti Network in its place, making us the laughing stock of the world.
George Newhouse is a human rights lawyer who also practices cyber defamation & vilification law. He authors the Civil Justice Issues chapter in the Laws of Australia.
[50.George Newhouse is a human rights lawyer who also practices cyber defamation & vilification law. He authors the Civil Justice Issues chapter in the Laws of Australia.]
But he doesn’t like hiding rape and vilifying stressed pregnant women without good English skills making a heart / soul destroying choices and then having that most difficult and most horrible of decisions taken away from her because the government is so sure it is on the wrong side of the law it pays a fortune to fly her out of the country to stop her taking to her lawyer.
I don’t believe in the death penalty but anyone vilifying this woman certainly deserve it.