BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Coalition

A weak result for the Coalition from Newspoll this week delivers a corrective to the Turnbull honeymoon in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week records a strong move back to Labor, which partly reflects the Coalition’s soft Newspoll result this week. However, it’s also indicative of how sensitive the model is short-term fluctuations now that it’s using the start of the Turnbull era of year zero, and thus only has a small number of data points. The story on the primary vote is that the Greens have recovered some of the ground they lost over the previous weeks, with the Labor primary vote remaining steady. The difference all this makes to the seat projection is rather modest, with the Coalition dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Queensland. The leadership ratings from Newspoll give a further boost to Malcolm Turnbull’s already strong net approval rating, but the other indicators are essentially unchanged. Preferred prime minister and Turnbull’s net approval are still being determined through weighted averages of all polling since the leadership change, rather than trend measures.

What’s more:

• The meeting of the New South Wales Liberal Party’s state council on the weekend, chiefly noted for the heckling delivered to the Prime Minister, saw the demise of a proposal for all preselections to be conducted by plebiscites of party members, in place of the current system where the vote is divided between branch delegates and head office. This was despite just such a reform being advocated by a post-election review conducted by a panel headed by John Howard. However, a compromise resolution will see plebiscites conducted in one federal seat before next year’s election, two for the subsequent federal election due in 2019, and two for the next state election, also due in 2019.

Tom McIlroy of the Canberra Times identifies Christina Hobbs, a United Nations World Food Program program officer, as a possible starter for the Greens’ Senate preselection in the Australian Capital Territory. However, the report also cites a party source saying its resources were likely to be concentrated elsewhere, particularly on “potentially difficult fights in Queensland, NSW and South Australia”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,178 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Coalition”

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  1. AFR analysis
    [Oct 18 2015 at 7:00 PM Updated 3 mins ago
    Labor’s challenge: persuade voters Malcolm Turnbull is not an ‘ALP in drag’ PM
    by Laura Tingle

    Polite convention in reporting on published opinion polls is that you tend to stick to just your own poll and ignore those of the competition.

    That’s going to be a bit hard with the release of the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll given the swings it reports in political fortunes are so dramatic, and that the results are considerably different to those reported by Newspoll just a week ago.

    Newspoll told us that Malcolm Turnbull’s personal satisfaction ratings had skyrocketed but that the two party preferred vote was at just 50/50.

    This was a bit mystifying for politicians in both major parties: the two-party preferred vote at 50/50 didn’t seem to tally with the clear swing to the government with Turnbull’s ascension to the top job.

    MPs on both sides thought this might reflect voters endorsing Turnbull personally but holding off on making a decision about the party vote until they had seen more of the cut of his jib.

    Nonetheless, the Coalition’s primary vote had picked up four points since August 10 to 43 per cent, while Labor’s had dropped 4 points to 35 per cent.

    Now Ipsos reckons the two party preferred vote has jumped to 47/53 in the Coalition’s favour, from 54/46 against it on August 13. That’s based on a primary vote last weekend of 30 per cent for Labor and 45 per cent for the Coalition.

    The voters polled by Ipsos seem a lot more committed in their views than Newspoll’s voters do, too.]
    [Oct 18 2015 at 7:00 PM
    Voters happy with change of PM to the ‘articulate’ and ‘positive’ Malcolm Turnbull
    by Edmund Tadros

    The reaction of swinging voter Emily Silberberg to the change of Liberal leadership to Malcolm Turnbull was one of relief.

    “I was very happy with the change,” the 38-year-old forestry consultant said. “I wasn’t happy with Tony Abbott at all. I didn’t think he was very competent. I couldn’t stand the slogans.”

    Ms Silberberg, of NSW, has been impressed with Mr Turnbull in his first month as PM.

    “I think Turnbull’s been very good, he hasn’t put a foot wrong. I have voted Labor previously (but) I would most certainly support the Liberal party now.”]

  2. … and they’re going to ride Shorten all the way down.

    “Smoke ’em if ya got ’em because we’re going in.”

  3. Except to say this:

    Eva Cox made a very good point about Shorten’s style as Opposition leader on Radio National this morning:

    She said as a seasoned negotiator, Shorten is inclined to always hedge his bets, make statements that leave open the possibility of tweaking his position later, never speak in clear definitive language.

    All that has to change yesterday if he’s to have a snowball’s chance in hell. He has to get on the front foot (but not with Caymans-style crap), get on the front foot fast and start connecting with the electorate.

  4. I’m thinking 25% FP for ALP and the self-preservation gene will kick in for the ALP Caucus to ignore the Rudd Rules.

  5. meher baba
    The Libs will attack Shorten over TURC or anything else real or imagined.

    The ALP cannot afford to play hands off hoping the Libs do the same. They are vicious lying conniving grubs. Best to treat them as such.

  6. meher baba@2139

    The stuff about JG alleged that she knowingly witnessed a false declaration, which is undoubtedly a crime, albeit a relatively minor one (not to mention ancient history). I thought that it was disgusting for the Libs under Abbott to attack JG about this stuff (albeit seemingly following the lead of Robert McLelland on the matter).

    So what false declaration did JG witness?

    If someone makes a declaration and swears of affirms it is true, all a witness is doing is witnessing their signature and that they have attested to the truth of the declaration.

    As is well known, I thought JG was a dud PM, but this other stuff is sheer rubbish and I would have thought you knew better.

  7. alias

    Did Eva mention that Truffles being a trained to the max lawyer and merchant banker means that whatever he says does not necessarily mean what you think it means ? No ? How surprisement.

  8. psyclaw@2163

    Mex #2000

    On of the most naive, ill informed posts I have ever seen on PB.

    You mustn’t be following his posts, he writes plenty that are equally as dumb. That one did not stand out.

  9. The Australian COALition government, firstly under Abbott and now under Turnbull, is actively attacking the living standards of most Australians whilst deliberately subsidising the wealth accumulation of the very rich.

    Put the pieces of the jigsaw together.
    Michaela Cash is one major voice calling for an attack on penalty rates using the excuse it cost jobs.
    Liberal surrogates in the media are also echoing the attack on millions of mainly lower income Australians who rely on penalty rates to maintain minimum living standards.
    There has been and still is a constant refrain from right wingers and media pundits for ‘tax reform’ which, strangely, usually translates into a push for the known regressive GST to be increased so that, again, low income earners can be disproportionately hit – at roughly twice the impact of the rich.
    Meanwhile our Treasurer, dear fluffy Scott, insists we need to cut government services and his mates want to increase the costs of health and education, but they rule out out the debate [sic] reducing or even cutting tax subsidies for the rich and very rich such as:
    superannuation rorts for the rich
    family trust rorts
    negative gearing
    subsidising car leases
    getting tough on tax evasion by corporations and, most recently, PMs who have money invested in places whose only function is to decrease tax paid at home.

    Meanwhile the long term context for all of these jagged pieces is the growing inequality of wealth in this society, the growing rate of poverty, millions of Australians live in poverty, the decreasing share wage and salary earners are getting from increased labour productivity whilst income from profits and dividends is rising.

    What else does this add up to other than class war?

    It is a sustained, multi-fronted campaign that aims to cut services to those who most need them, maintain huge subsidies to the very rich and cut the incomes of most.

    And they have the media actively complicit.

  10. psyclaw@2163

    [Mex #2000

    On of the most naive, ill informed posts I have ever seen on PB.]
    When it comes to naïve posts GG’s taking as gospel Truffles claim the Caymans was so he could pay more tax takes the biscuit.

  11. OK

    Based on Ipsos

    I think the jury is in and GG has won.

    Generally I hate any ad-hominem arguments because I think they backfire. I suspect the Cayman stuff has too.

    Used prematurely. Should have waited until the tax reform actually got going – then hammered Malcolm with tax evasion.

  12. [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 22m22 minutes ago
    #Ipsos Poll VIC Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 53 (+11) ALP 47 (-11) #auspol]

    [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 24m24 minutes ago
    #Ipsos Poll NSW Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 55 (+5) ALP 45 (-5) #auspol]

  13. shea

    [And they have the media actively complicit.]
    Why wouldn’t they be ? They are employed by the Rupert, Gina , Stokes and the rest. Their pay packets depend on it,

  14. Confessions – I think I know which town you reside in. Couple of my friends have been involved in the various group efforts to achieve justice for that bloke. Good to see it’s happening via politics as opposed to the far more difficult/expensive process of using lawyers, SAT etc.
    Fun times ahead!

  15. psyclaw

    Really! okay in what way was it wrong

    1-The tax is charged when the money is returned to Australia (or if it does)

    2-Each country is responsible for its own tax system, if a country wants to be used in the manner the Caymans allows itself to be used then that is a matter for it.

    I agree with E.G.T, the problem isn’t what Turnbull did, the problem is the global tax system.

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