The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week records a strong move back to Labor, which partly reflects the Coalition’s soft Newspoll result this week. However, it’s also indicative of how sensitive the model is short-term fluctuations now that it’s using the start of the Turnbull era of year zero, and thus only has a small number of data points. The story on the primary vote is that the Greens have recovered some of the ground they lost over the previous weeks, with the Labor primary vote remaining steady. The difference all this makes to the seat projection is rather modest, with the Coalition dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Queensland. The leadership ratings from Newspoll give a further boost to Malcolm Turnbull’s already strong net approval rating, but the other indicators are essentially unchanged. Preferred prime minister and Turnbull’s net approval are still being determined through weighted averages of all polling since the leadership change, rather than trend measures.
What’s more:
• The meeting of the New South Wales Liberal Party’s state council on the weekend, chiefly noted for the heckling delivered to the Prime Minister, saw the demise of a proposal for all preselections to be conducted by plebiscites of party members, in place of the current system where the vote is divided between branch delegates and head office. This was despite just such a reform being advocated by a post-election review conducted by a panel headed by John Howard. However, a compromise resolution will see plebiscites conducted in one federal seat before next year’s election, two for the subsequent federal election due in 2019, and two for the next state election, also due in 2019.
• Tom McIlroy of the Canberra Times identifies Christina Hobbs, a United Nations World Food Program program officer, as a possible starter for the Greens’ Senate preselection in the Australian Capital Territory. However, the report also cites a party source saying its resources were likely to be concentrated elsewhere, particularly on “potentially difficult fights in Queensland, NSW and South Australia”.
Waleed Aly calls out “the deaths at sea argument” for what it is:
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/doctors-protest-over-asylum-seekers-shows-us-what-real-morality-is-all-about-20151014-gk9emp.html
[It’s easy to forget there was a time that we didn’t justify our asylum seeker policies by claiming they were “stopping deaths at sea”. Once upon the Howard era, we were candid enough to say flat out it was a bald assertion of sovereignty, bolstered by a general hunch we didn’t really like these people very much.
Viewed through that history we can see just how remarkable the transformation has been. “Deaths at sea” allowed us to take a crassly nationalistic argument and turn it instead into a moral one. The odd “economic refugees” or “Christians only” snipe aside, we stopped attacking refugees directly and attacked people smugglers instead. Brutality was transformed into a kind of muscular compassion, and every confirmation of the psychological (and sometimes physical) destruction of people under our jurisdiction was rendered a sober necessity. Deterrence, no matter what horrors it entailed, became the only moral position. That, insisted Malcolm Turnbull this week, is “the melancholy truth”.
That might be fine if it’s a moral vision we habitually adopt, but it’s not. We don’t, say, force people to donate their organs, even though we know this would save lives. As a nation we’ve typically rejected this sort of approach because it has a nasty habit of being unprincipled. It’s the morality that can make anything from slavery, to torture, to Stalinism possible: an ethos that has no rules, only results; where nothing has intrinsic value except whatever “greater good” you wish to serve.
Under this sort of cover, almost any atrocity can be sanctified. And if it can do even that sort of heavy lifting, then what’s the mental disintegration of a few hundred asylum seekers – whether they’re children or not?
That’s how we’ve reached the point where we no longer even need to pretend our detention centres are anything other than (in Patrick McGorry’s phrase) “factories for producing mental illness”. We’ve developed a morality that can absorb that. We just can’t recognise how dramatic that is because our political debate is incapable of teasing out the moral assumptions that made that possible.]
Geoffrey
I was thinking much the same – Malcolm will give way one the “unimportant” things and stick with the RWNJs where it helps to keep him in power.
$1 mill will not get Abbott far if he has to pay a mortgage – also if their is trouble at home, $1 mill would probably allow he and Margie a small unit each in Manly.
If say there is problems in the marriage, then with a standard 60/40 split of assets and say a 30/70 share of income, $1 mill and a pension of $250 would leave Margie with the House with Abbott enough to by a unit and an income of $175.
$1 mill will not get Abbott far if he has to pay a mortgage – also if their is trouble at home, $1 mill would probably allow he and Margie a small unit each in Manly.
If say there is problems in the marriage, then with a standard 60/40 split of assets and say a 30/70 share of income, $1 mill and a pension of $250 would leave Margie with the House with Abbott enough to by a unit and an income of $175,000. Better than the pension eh what.
Alberici adopts the common ABC tactic of adopting the Government’s position when interviewing any oppponent of the govt. I remember Malcolm Fraser calling out Virginia Trioli when she attempted to do this.
It’s particularly pathetic in this case.
dave (& others speculating on Abbott’s future) …
[ He really doesn’t need to decide anything at the moment – although an announcement that he intends to stand next election *might* produce a job offer of some sort? ]
It’s the other way around. Abbott has made it clear he is willing to stand aside at the end of the year. If someone offers him enough inducement he will leave, otherwise he knows he only needs to remain in parliament to be a focus of discontent within the LNP.
Abbott has never succeeded at anything on his own merits (possibly excepting hitting people) and this will be no different. Given that he will be a huge negative wherever he ends up, it will be interesting to see who finally stumps up.
DTT
Most people would be happy to retire with a lump sum of $1 million to provide an income in their twilight years.
But Abbott is not most people … Thankfully
The major reason why capitalists like people owning, rather than renting, their houses, is because owners have a big stake in social stability and siding with the capitalists when the revolution comes. Maybe it’s time to stockpile the shotguns and bake-beans.
[Abbott has made it clear he is willing to stand aside at the end of the year.]
Abbott’s word isn’t worth shit anymore.
Player One
Remember the old days of penitence (no, I know you weren’t alive then 😉 ) when a religious man would become a hermit for a period of time. Well, I think Abbott could do penance for all the harm he has done to Australia and the careers he has ruined, by retreating to the outback somewhere and working alongside the Aborigines for a year and a day, on subsistence rations.
[If I have to see one more Press Gallery piece along the lines of ‘poor PM Turnbull besmirched by grubby Labor just because he is rich’ I swear I will scream. The phrases “Politics of envy” and “Class Warfare” have been so over-used in recent days and for the life of me I can’t understand why?
Bitching about Turnbull living in a mansion is politics of envy. Raising the issue of your Prime Minister – the man who ultimately decides on who will be taxed in this nation and how much tax they will pay – CHOOSING to invest in an offshore Tax Haven like the Caymans is not even close to politics of envy. Shame punters are not aware of just how inappropriate this action by our Prime Minister is due to the current Press Gallery love fest with Mr Turnbull.]
[ Abbott’s word isn’t worth shit anymore. ]
Can’t argue against that one 🙂
http://yathink.com.au/article-display/the-cult-of-malcolm-makes-apple-fanboys-look-like-amateurs,171#.ViGCvTky0Go.twitter
Lizzie
[Well, I think Abbott could do penance for all the harm he has done to Australia and the careers he has ruined, by retreating to the outback somewhere and working alongside the Aborigines for a year]
Why inflict him on the aborigines? they have enough to deal with.
Player One – I thought he said he will make a DECISION at the end of the year (not stand aside). Could be wrong. Has he said something further? I reckon he will say: “look, just give me another six months to turn this around …”
lizzie
[ I think Abbott could do penance for all the harm he has done to Australia and the careers he has ruined, by retreating to the outback somewhere and working alongside the Aborigines for a year and a day ]
Oooh! You are far, far crueler than I ever imagined you could be 🙂
K17
My understanding too that Abbott would be making a decision at the end of the year
[Pamela Curr
#Abyan
It took Dutton 9 weeks to allow rape victim to come to Australia
And 5 days to send her back w/o treatment]
K17
[ Player One – I thought he said he will make a DECISION at the end of the year (not stand aside). ]
You are correct. He probably won’t actually leave parliament until the next election – I reckon he was just making it plain he was open to offers.
[ I reckon he will say: “look, just give me another six months to turn this around …” ]
🙂
[Abbott’s word isn’t worth shit anymore.]
Since when has the value (or more accurately the complete lack of value) of Abbott’s word been time dependent?
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/oct/17/turnbull-is-wrong-to-claim-refugee-changed-her-mind-about-abortion-advocates-say?CMP=share_btn_tw
[Malcolm Turnbull is wrong in claiming a pregnant refugee changed her mind about an abortion after being raped in Nauru, a refugee advocate says.
The prime minister said the 23-year-old Somali woman known under the pseudonym Abyan, who was brought to Australia and moved to Sydney’s Villawood detention centre this week for the procedure, was returned to the island because she decided against it.
“The information I have is that woman in question changed her mind about seeking a termination and was deemed fit to fly,” he told reporters in Auckland on Saturday.
But Refugee Action Coalition spokesman Ian Rintoul insisted Abyan was flown out of Australia because lawyers were preparing for an injunction to prevent her return to Nauru.
“The prime minister’s statement is just not true,” Rintoul said. “At no point did Abyan refuse or decline to have a termination.”
Rintoul said he had spoken to Abyan on Friday night and she indicated she wanted to postpone her decision – not change it – because she wanted to discuss the decision with doctors, but had been denied counselling and an interpreter.]
I will be desperately upset if Tones leaves. I want him to do to the Liberal Party (which suckled this beast) what he did to the rest of us.
[Why inflict him on the aborigines? they have enough to deal with.]
Indeed.
A much more worthy form of penitence would be to force people who voted for the scumbag to take him into their homes for a month and feed and care for him.
[On Thursday, Immigration Minister Peter Dutton said in a radio interview that refugees and asylum seekers on Nauru were asking for medical care in Australia in order to try and have their refugee claims processed on the mainland.
He described the behaviour as a “racket”.]
Dutton sees the whole world as being as twisted as he is.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-34552321
ratsak:
True. Abbott’s word has never been worth anything.
Going through my wardrobe and throwing out lots of old T-shirts, most dashed with tears. These are pivotal moments in a bloke’s life, when the relics of the past are set aside and a new course is set towards the future – or am I overdramatising.
k17
No.
rossmcg – Touched.
lizzie @ 1524
From the article you posted at 1521:
[But Refugee Action Coalition spokesman Ian Rintoul insisted Abyan was flown out of Australia because lawyers were preparing for an injunction to prevent her return to Nauru.]
I posted yesterday that there is no trust between the Department (and successive governments) and ‘anything is justified to save a refugee’ advocates such as Rintoul and Curr. Their approach to manipulate every situation to maximise legal advantage means that any situation they promote is looked on with the greatest of scepticism, whatever the merits of the individual case.
I know nothing about Abyan, other than what is claimed. I have no confidence in the Nauru authorities and I have no confidence in Transfield as far as integrity goes. I have some confidence in the department, but the question is what sort of environment has been created by the Pez. At the same time, the past conduct of people like Rintoul and Curr raises serious questions about whether they act in good faith when they champion a case like Abyan and make the claims they have made on her behalf. The quote from Rintoul reflects as much on what he wanted to achieve from bringing Abyan to Australia as it does on the Department and Minister for wanting to counter his strategy. And the bulk of asylum seekers on Manus and Nauru are terribly disadvantaged by this game playing.
It’s like the Malaysian people swap. David Manne thought he had a big winner there in the High Court. But the net result was many more people seeking to come to Australia, with some making it eventually onto the mainland with an uncertain future and temporary visas, and many more stuck on places like Nauru and Manus going out of their minds.
If her champions were not so untrustworthy, Abyan could have been treated more compassionately by the Department – in my day there were plenty of people involved who would do so – with psychological assistance as well as counselling. But the obvious use of her case to establish a bridgehead of bringing asylum seekers from Nauru (and Manus) to Australia for health reasons and then manipulate their presence into court action to avoid their return makes it harder for everyone else in the same position.
dave@1442
Howard, whatever his faults, is politically astute enough to know it would almost certainly have dragged his reputation into Abbott’s political cesspit, never to recover.
Just me
[Howard, whatever his faults, is politically astute enough to know it would almost certainly have dragged his reputation into Abbott’s political cesspit, never to recover.]
My thoughts exactly
k17
Life is bittersweet. 😀
Warren Buffett will know a few things about m0ney. What does he reckon about the Caymans ? Truffles’ boosters won’t be able to claim Warren is jealous will they ?
[A Minimum Tax for the Wealthy
……And it’s sickening that a Cayman Islands mail drop can be central to tax manoeuvring by wealthy individuals and corporations.’
….We can’t let those who want to protect the privileged get away with insisting that we do nothing until we can do everything.]
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/26/opinion/buffett-a-minimum-tax-for-the-wealthy.html?_r=0
Victoria – Too true. I was going to throw out the “I Saw the Torch” T-shirts I got on sale after the Sydney Olympics and … and … and … just couldn’t do it.
TPOF
[It’s like the Malaysian people swap. David Manne thought he had a big winner there in the High Court. But the net result was many more people seeking to come to Australia]
You may be right about Rintoul and Curr (I don’t doubt you) but it seemed to me that her lawyer was simply protesting that she should at least have had an interpreter to explain the situation to her. That’s a very basic provision, and things must be absolutely dire if that was refused.
Ross
While it is still a lot and more than I have, $1 mill would not provide much of an income at current interest rates. Lucky to get $35,000 per year – still probably entitled to a bit of a part pension, especially for a couple. When interest rates were up at 11% then $1 mill meant a comfortable – very comfortable retirement.
When you factor in divorce settlement in many many cases, $1 mill, after paying out mortgages, will probably leave most divorced couples on two pensions.
Say for a still married couple, pay out $150,000 on the mortgage and spend another $50,000 on urgent maintenance – roofs, solar panels painting etc, then buy a new car and take a modest holiday, you will be lucky if there is $700,000 in the bank. At interest rates of 3.5% (if lucky) you are looking at $25,000 pa. This is less than the couples pension, so most will get nearly a full pension.
In the case of couples who divorce, there will probably be nothing over – pay off the mortgage, buy second partner a $500,00 unit, two new cheap cars, and there would not be much more that $150,000 each. Barely enough to affect the pension at all.
[Life is bittersweet.]
Life is ever,
since man was born,
licking honey
from a thorn.
(Can’t remember who said it.)
K17:
Buying tees are an experience, usually representing some life-altering event like your first Rolling Stones concert, stuff like that.
I’m not a guy but I still feel your pain. 😀
But at least I can now forget forever the fact that I once bought Country Road Polo Shirts.
k17@1534
Baby steps…….
ratsak@1523
A hard law, but a just one.
briefly@1469
And too many lose sight of that.
Just me
Hadnt heard that saying before, but it is a good one
[But at least I can now forget forever the fact that I once bought Country Road Polo Shirts.]
Eek! Surprised you can admit that publicly!!
Diogenes@1478
She is a nasty piece of work.
confessions – Right now, though is a tough time, and I’m emotionally naked.
dtt
I’ve been told we need $2M in super as a couple and will still have quite a drop in disposable income.
That’s an awful lot of savings to have to make.
I have found that a speed of 11KB allows me to use PB but 3KB causes problems.
Ahhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!
Calling any tech gurus. Help!!!!!
I am thinking ants or rodents in the line, Telsta oversold the line, workmen mucking the system up in a new development, aliens or as a last option, Russian, Chinese, US or Australian spys (or all 4) logging onto my system.
Any other suggestions?
Diogs,
Perhaps you’d like to consider real estate investment.
I’m sure I can assist you!
K17
Were you a liberal voter at the time. My many, many years of poll booth work tells me that Polo shirts (especially up market striped ones) nearly always indicate a Liberal voter when worn on a middle aged man.