BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition

The upward swing to the Coalition continues, with the BludgerTrack poll aggregate now recording the Coalition improving on their 2013 election performance in New South Wales.

This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate again records a fairly solid shift in favour of the Coalition, although it’s only yielded them one extra seat on the seat projection – that being in New South Wales, where the Coalition is now being credited with one more seat than it won in 2013. The aggregate is back to being determined through a trend calculation, using only the polling from the Turnbull era (note that this isn’t the case on the charts shown on the sidebar, which suggest a much higher result at present for the Coalition). However, the bias adjustments for Essential Research and Roy Morgan are still being determined in a very crude fashion. This is particularly an issue for the latter, given its idiosyncratic Turnbull era results. Both pollsters have been determined simply on the basis of the flurry of polling that emerged the week after the leadership change, the benchmark being provided by Newspoll, Galaxy and ReachTEL, which remain subject to the same bias adjustments used in the Abbott era. The adjustment to the Labor primary vote for Morgan is particularly pronounced (over +5%), which also means it’s getting a very low weighting in the trend determination. These bias adjustments will be recalculated as new results from the other pollsters become available to benchmark them against.

Also worth noting:

• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports it is “all but certain” that Joe Hockey will be succeeded as the Liberal candidate for North Sydney by Trent Zimmerman, factional moderate and the party’s New South Wales state president. Hockey’s support for Zimmerman is said to have sealed the deal, although it is also reported that he had earlier approached the state Treasurer, Gladys Berejiklian. Other mooted candidates are Tim James, chief executive of Medicines Australia, and John Hart, chief executive of Restaurant and Catering Australia. James is a member for the Right, and is also mentioned as a potential candidate to succeed Tony Abbott in Warringah, or Jillian Skinner in the state seat of North Shore.

• The issue of Senate electoral reform could be heading towards a compromise more conducive to minor parties than the proposal of straightforward optional preferential voting above and below the line, as was proposed last year by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. Key to the argument is whether group voting tickets should be abolished, a path favoured by Nick Xenophon but fiercely opposed by the micro-party Senators, the most active being David Leyonhjelm. Xenophon has approached the government with a proposal that would require above-the-line voters to number at least three boxes, and below-the-line voters to number at least 12, resulting in a greater flow of preferences to smaller players. Antony Green also argues that the resulting increase in the number of live votes in the final stages of the count would reduce the chances of the final seat being decided in a random fashion. Leyonhjelm has sought a middle path by proposing the retention of group voting tickets and one number above-the-line voting, while relieving the burden on below-the-line voters by requiring that they number a minimum of six boxes – very much the same as applies for the Victorian upper house, except that the minimum number of boxes there is five. At the November 2014 state election, 94% of voters went above-the-line in the upper house, helping to elect two members of Shooters & Fishers and one each from the Sex Party, the DLP and Vote 1 Local Jobs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,636 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 4 of 33
1 … 3 4 5 … 33

  1. Of course it all depends who created this political compass and how they score the different options. If it is a US construct no wonde we all end up in the bottom left of the chart. I suspect even Tony Abbot would be there as well!

  3. Pegasus @ 147

    One problem is that the site does not weight our views, other than in respect of strongly or not. I may strongly agree with a proposal, but it does not mean that it would influence my vote as much as a proposal with which I only agree. For example, the death penalty, which I now strongly oppose. But I would still vote for a political party that supported it (in the US, for example, if it was significantly better than the alternative for a range of other matters).

    A second problem is that while I might hold strong or very strong views about certain matters, I recognise that there are many others, sometimes a majority, who hold opposing views of opposing strength. I give the strongest weight to this country continuing to operate as a modern liberal democracy under the Westminster system. If this means that some of my views never see the light of implementation, so be it. For example, I strongly oppose poker machines. But I still would vote Labor, despite its backsliding, rather than Xenophon (or his equivalent in the ACT)

    I find the Greens policies, overall, unrealistic, even if I am sympathetic to a number of its views. The best governments are not the ones that most correlate with what I want for this country, but which best manage the different, competing positions and opinions to forge the most coherent society.

  5. http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/oct/08/the-weekly-beast-will-mark-latham-return-to-foul-mouthed-form-on-the-verdict
    [Mark Latham has been confirmed for tonight’s premiere of Karl Stefanovic’s TV panel show The Verdict on Channel Nine. Billed as “former federal Labor leader and stay-at-home dad”, the five-episode deal is the first of the “commercial opportunities” Latham spoke of when he gave his foul-mouthed performance at the Melbourne writers festival in August.

    In a festival interview with ABC presenter Jonathan Green, Latham refused to answer questions or conduct a civil discourse. He said his family believed he would be “crazy to spill your story for free to a wanker like Jonathan Green … You should sign up to the commercial opportunities. Which, of course, I have.”

    The panellists on The Verdict – including independent senator Jacqui Lambie, Mamamia’s Jamila Rizvi and a counter-terrorism expert, Dr Anne Aly – will discuss whether sports stars guilty of a crime should be allowed back on the field, and how a teenager turns into a terrorist.]

  8. http://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/pregnant-rape-victim-pleads-for-abortion#.tvllZr21w5
    [Abyan (not her real name) was one of two women allegedly raped in a night-time attack in August on the tiny pacific island, which houses asylum seekers who try to come to Australia.

    Prominent human rights lawyer George Newhouse told BuzzFeed News the situation is urgent as the 23-year-old who became pregnant as a result of the alleged rape has suffered rapid weight loss and is refusing to eat.

    “She’s sick, she cannot leave her room. She’s been fed water and milk by her roommate. She’s lost 10 kilos. She has not seen a psychologist or obstetrician in four weeks,” he said.]

  9. “@COBrienBris: Labor would make Infrastructure Australia independent body like Reserve Bank. @billshortenmp @ABCNews24 @QldMediaClub”

  13. @TPOF

    I agree with Pegasus’ comment @157 , but I still find something about that way of approaching politics deeply disturbing. It’s a deference to authority and the establishment, as though there’s something deeply irresponsible about voting honestly. At the ballot box we *should* feel a responsibility, but it should compel you to be honest and genuine, not to censor and compromise your views before they even reach parliament.

    And you should trust parliament and the political system to reconcile the diversity in Australia, that’s their function after all. If we manage, mitigate and censor our views before they even hit parliament then we are not using democracy properly.

  14. The hope that somehow the MSM media would get its act together after the demise of Abbott is short lived if comments about Shorten’s recent announcement is to go by.

    Reported on local 6PR radio this morning, conversation between local jock and someone dubbed as Channel 7s political reporter in Canberra, the Shorten thing was written off as a “stunt”.

    Apart from the fact that the Abbott time in office was a the source of tens of stunts – and rarely called that by these MSM so-called experts – today’s announcement has so-say been described as “concrete bank”.

    Now, this was no clever word from either the jock or the so-called political reporter, but the straight-from-the-mouth comment of some Liberal hack.

    So there we have it. Any attempt by Shorten or Labor cops the ‘stunt’ call, without a blush from the radio hacks that all they are doing is rebroadcasting the output of the Liberal media outfit.

    There is no bias of course in the media that I can see…yeh?

  16. Millennial,

    My score was -8.88, -7.59.

    I have taken the test several times over the years.

    The older I become, the more leftie I have become 🙂 which goes against one of the common stereotypes about the aging process.

  18. That aside, Shorten looked pretty good I thought. A bit of passion about him, sounded convincing, engaged. The bulging eyeballs got away from him a couple of times but the awkard sentence construction was happily missing (though perhaps that’s a function of pre-written speech rather than off the cuff remarks).

  20. “”The older I become, the more leftie I have become 🙂 which goes against one of the common stereotypes about the aging process.””

    Perhaps you are more WISER rather than more SENILE!.

  21. Pegasus #166
    [My score was -8.88, -7.59.]

    Yeah, I think we need to add on 5 or 6 to each dimension so our scores realistically match up to our political views.

  23. [poked fun at Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s image as a friend of public transport, saying the government had yet to pledge any cash to back it up.

    ‘It’s one thing to take selfies when you’re hunting down an elected prime minister … it’s another thing to actually fund projects,’ Mr Albanese told ABC radio on Thursday.

    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will use a speech in Brisbane on Thursday to announce that a Labor government would fund 10 major projects, including a rail line to Sydney’s new Badgerys Creek airport.]

    – See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/10/08/shorten-launches-infrastructure-plan.html#sthash.BU04ufzD.dpuf

  25. 1934pc,

    Mind you, I started out as a leftie, always landing in the same quadrant 🙂

    Kennett as premier in Victoria set me on the path of community activism though I became interested in politics while at high school when Whitlam was PM.

    The shift from being a Labor supporter to Greens supporter was over Tampa and eventually I joined the Greens Party.

  26. Reasons why someone who scores in the 3rd (minus, minus) quadrant of the Compass might vote “Liberal”:

    1. they went to a private school and all their old-boy (or old-girl) friends talk about Labor voters as some sort of subversives

    2. they grew up hearing Mum, Dad, uncles and aunties talk about Labor as “alla same communists” and hearing about the “socialist objective”

    3. they (correctly) realise that the Trade Unions have a big influence in the Party and can’t differentiate between the fact that some Union bosses are utter bastards and the other more relevant fact that Unions have made this a place where workers have a right to be treated fairly

    4. they’ve heard the “Liberals” descibe themselves as the party that protects our free way of life so many times they’ve come to believe it despite all the evidence.

    How many ticks do you score above, davidwh?

  28. Love all the replies to My compass post including Peg and David my LNP tweeter mate has sent me his score only needs a little nudge and a bit more converting by me and he is on the good side 🙂

    Sure you don’t tweet Davidwh 😀

    Has also brought out a lot of tweeters too with their scores

  29. Jack A Randa

    1. Nope am old Wynneum High boy in the very short time I did go to high school.

    2. Nope mum and dad were staunch Laborites and I am the black sheep of the family.

    3. Yes for Part 1 but Part 2 is much too general in nature.

    4. Nope actually don’t see much difference between Labor and Liberal when it comes to protecting out generally free way of life in Australia.

  32. I was happy to find that my political compass result puts me pretty close to Gandhi in the libertarian left.

    I think there is an important additional dimension: courage/commitment, which would be perpendicular to the 2D compass. I think it would put some space between most of us here and the likes of Gandhi.

  34. [ .@billshortenmp: We need to get serious about tackling the #infrastructure defecit #auspool ]
    Someone on abc24 can’t spell for toffee.

    Seriously, after the Coal whinging about deficit for so long, it’s good to see a different kind of deficit discussed.

  36. Personally I think Australia has generally become more socially progressive over my lifetime and most of us have just evolved along with this. My parents who were strong Labor supporters and generally very nice people held some beliefs when I was growing up that most here would mean they get classed as RWNJ’s.

    It is really hard to measure what we are today individually and collectively against how things were 30, 40, 50 & 60 years ago. Australia has come a long way in that time.

  37. Extract from Crikey report on Sarah Ferguson’s speech to Melbourne media last night.

    [Ferguson said both Rudd and Gillard had come to The Killing Season with huge reservations about the role of the media had already played in telling and influencing their stories. When negotiations began with Gillard, Ferguson said she quickly realised Gillard was “as hostile as any potential interviewee I have ever encountered”.

    “It wasn’t personal. She just had a very dark view of the media. She wanted to know, before she would take part, whether we would examine the media’s role, which in her view was so egregious at the time that you couldn’t do her story justice without doing that. Rudd was similar — had a jaundiced view of the media, particularly the ABC. It helped that none of us came from the press gallery.” Their criticisms were echoed more recently by Tony Abbott, who urged the media to not act as the “assassin’s knife” in leadership challenges.

    “I don’t wholly accept Abbott’s characterisation of the media, or Gillard’s or Rudd’s,” Ferguson said. “But it did make me reflect on our relationship with politicians, and how honest we are about the way their stories reach us as journalists … Does the culture undermine the audience’s trust in us?”]

  38. davidwh

    [2. Nope mum and dad were staunch Laborites and I am the black sheep of the family.]
    Black sheep ? Goodness me no. I have an old picture of you and your parents.

  39. I am

    Economic Left/Right: -8.75
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -9.44

    but very happy to be an ALP supporter. It is, unfortunately, the closest party to my position which makes a serious effort to engage the general population in conversation about political issues. And, unfortunately, the closest to my position that can provide government, But fortunately, in my experience, the other ALP politicians, members and supporters with whom I discuss things with, share many of the same values.

  41. Much thanks to Lizzie for her sterling work temping for BK. 🙂

    –––––––––––

    Political Compass result:

    Economic: -7.25
    Social: -6.97

    Not surprised about the social score, but I thought I was less left on the economic axis.

    Apparently any concern about and wish to correct the adverse consequences for real living humans from unrestrained market forces makes one a radical lefty.

    Nah. Just somebody in the mainstream social-democrat centre-left, trying to figure out how to best combine the practical utilitarian and the soft libertarian.

    https://www.politicalcompass.org/

  42. Pegasus

    I remember that BoerWar once did the ABC Vote Compass questionnaire and it found to his dismay that he was aligned most strongly with the Greens.

  44. I am Libertarian Left.
    Economic Left/Right: -3.88
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.9

    I pulled back from recording any Strongly Disagree/Agree responses.

  50. Millenial

    [If anybody’s interested, I’ve mapped all of the Political Compass scores everybody’s shared as of now on Poll Bludger, and grouped them all onto this graph:]

    I was interested. Thanks!

    It would be interesting to plot the results for a large sample of randomly selected people. It would be intriguing to see how they are distributed.

Comments Page 4 of 33
1 … 3 4 5 … 33

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *