BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition

The upward swing to the Coalition continues, with the BludgerTrack poll aggregate now recording the Coalition improving on their 2013 election performance in New South Wales.

This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate again records a fairly solid shift in favour of the Coalition, although it’s only yielded them one extra seat on the seat projection – that being in New South Wales, where the Coalition is now being credited with one more seat than it won in 2013. The aggregate is back to being determined through a trend calculation, using only the polling from the Turnbull era (note that this isn’t the case on the charts shown on the sidebar, which suggest a much higher result at present for the Coalition). However, the bias adjustments for Essential Research and Roy Morgan are still being determined in a very crude fashion. This is particularly an issue for the latter, given its idiosyncratic Turnbull era results. Both pollsters have been determined simply on the basis of the flurry of polling that emerged the week after the leadership change, the benchmark being provided by Newspoll, Galaxy and ReachTEL, which remain subject to the same bias adjustments used in the Abbott era. The adjustment to the Labor primary vote for Morgan is particularly pronounced (over +5%), which also means it’s getting a very low weighting in the trend determination. These bias adjustments will be recalculated as new results from the other pollsters become available to benchmark them against.

Also worth noting:

• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports it is “all but certain” that Joe Hockey will be succeeded as the Liberal candidate for North Sydney by Trent Zimmerman, factional moderate and the party’s New South Wales state president. Hockey’s support for Zimmerman is said to have sealed the deal, although it is also reported that he had earlier approached the state Treasurer, Gladys Berejiklian. Other mooted candidates are Tim James, chief executive of Medicines Australia, and John Hart, chief executive of Restaurant and Catering Australia. James is a member for the Right, and is also mentioned as a potential candidate to succeed Tony Abbott in Warringah, or Jillian Skinner in the state seat of North Shore.

• The issue of Senate electoral reform could be heading towards a compromise more conducive to minor parties than the proposal of straightforward optional preferential voting above and below the line, as was proposed last year by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. Key to the argument is whether group voting tickets should be abolished, a path favoured by Nick Xenophon but fiercely opposed by the micro-party Senators, the most active being David Leyonhjelm. Xenophon has approached the government with a proposal that would require above-the-line voters to number at least three boxes, and below-the-line voters to number at least 12, resulting in a greater flow of preferences to smaller players. Antony Green also argues that the resulting increase in the number of live votes in the final stages of the count would reduce the chances of the final seat being decided in a random fashion. Leyonhjelm has sought a middle path by proposing the retention of group voting tickets and one number above-the-line voting, while relieving the burden on below-the-line voters by requiring that they number a minimum of six boxes – very much the same as applies for the Victorian upper house, except that the minimum number of boxes there is five. At the November 2014 state election, 94% of voters went above-the-line in the upper house, helping to elect two members of Shooters & Fishers and one each from the Sex Party, the DLP and Vote 1 Local Jobs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,636 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition”

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  6. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/10/shortens-plan-to-become-the-infrastructure-pm/

    [Shorten’s plan makes a lot of sense.

    With Australia’s population projected to rise to around 50 million by mid-century, congestion will rise and living standards will fall unless there are major offsetting investments in well-targeted infrastructure.

    Indeed, the Australian Council of Learned Academies’ (ACOLA) new report, released yesterday, noted that Australia already has an accumulated infrastructure deficit of $100 billion that will rise to $350 billion by 2025 without corrective action. Accordingly, the report forecasts that the costs of urban congestion in our capital cities will increase four-fold in two decades, reaching $53.3 billion by 2031, unless there is a change of direction.]

  7. So much for the assurances from Robb –

    […the tobacco industry took on Australia’s efforts to carry out rules for plain packaging. Australia spent $50 million to defend its mandate for plain packaging of cigarettes against industry opposition (a suit by Philip Morris International).

    Toward the end of the TPP talks, the Obama Administration agreed to the “carve-out.” In the TPP, there is a potent arbitration mechanism for corporations to sue countries that do not follow the agreement – “Investor-State Dispute Settlements tribunals.” (ISDS) The “carve-out” provides that the cigarette industry cannot invoke ISDS.

    Many think the carve-out will end the story. Not so. First, consider how much political power opposes the carve-out in the majority Republican House and Senate. The tobacco industry is not alone. A group of business trade organizations, including the National Association of Manufacturers and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said in a statement it would oppose “a wide range of product and industry exclusions from core rules.”

    In fact, the industry has the support of the two key Senate Republican. Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Senate majority leader, said a few months ago, “It is essential as you work to finalize the TPP, you allow Kentucky tobacco to realize the same economic benefits and export potential other U.S. agricultural commodities will enjoy with a successful agreement.” ]

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/charlestiefer/2015/10/07/trans-pacific-partnership-congressional-republican-leadership-may-protect-tobacco-despite-carve-out/

  8. WWP

    [It seems fundamentally unjust that the Commonwealth can do that shellbell why is it allowed?]

    Because the High Court is not hearing an appeal, the parties are entitled to put facts before it but they must be generally agreed or the matter will be sent back to a lower court whose function is normally finding facts.

    Here all the parties agreed to the facts and them being put before the Court including the changes occurring in Nauru.

    There is never been a prohibition on governments of any ilk acting in a way which diminishes a litigant’s rights even when those rights are before the court. A famous example in NSW was a law prohibiting objections by concerned residents to noise emanating from Luna Park at the time the objections were before the court.

  11. Shell @ 91

    [The Commonwealth, as the primary defendant to the refugees claim in the High Court, is updating the High Court on the changes of approach of the Nauruan govt as they emerge.]

    Do you think the High Court will be impressed?

  13. dave @ 107

    It looks like the ’supporters’ of the TPP will do what the opponents could not – kill it. If the US Congress passes laws that clearly amend the agreed terms it will fall into a heap as no other party will regard themselves as bound.

  15. Just received a “goodbye” email from Brian Loughnane thanking me for being such a stalwart supporter etc. in recent times, and then one from Richard Alston thanking Brian for his sterling work, reminding us all that Brian had told him privately that he’s been thinking of “moving on” for many months now.

    I would have thought holding a mirror up to Loughnane’s nose to see if he’s still breathing would have been a better way for Alston of making sure he was dead.

  16. TPOF

    The HC will be neutral about it. They just deal with the legal issues arising from the agreed facts without regard to how those facts arise. If the persons bringing the claim are disadvantaged because of late changes the court may awards them costs to cover that.

  17. shell @ 108

    The fact that we are talking about a third party’s announceables (not even implemented changes) would surely limit the amount of significance that the court gives these ‘facts’. It is different from a legislative change in an Australian jurisdiction (like the Luna Park example) or an undertaking by one of the parties, especially if that party is an Australian government.

    The chance of a body outside the High Court’s jurisdiction, such as the Nauru government, not proceeding or reversing its announced intentions is sufficiently high, I would think, for the High Court to give little weight to it as a ‘fact’. Given the content of the Malaysia Solution decision in 2011, I would think this court (which is largely the same and without the dissenter in that decision) would be concerned to ensure that the substance of what is happening on the ground, rather than assurances that are not enforceable by one of the parties here, would be more persuasive.

    Of course, the HC will decide according to the law. But it is hard to see these Nauruan changes as having a significant impact on the High Court’s decision compared to what was the situation at the time the suit was brought. Especially as the HC does seem prepared to accept the de facto level of Australian control of the fate of the asylum seekers on Nauru, and not just the de jure level.

  18. Mikehilliard 112

    Looks like pbers are coming in on the poll as I thought they would! Nothing from trolls etc yet

    And my LNP twitter mate Who sent it to me won’t tell me what he scored 😀

  19. [I would think this court (which is largely the same and without the dissenter in that decision)]

    There have been four appointments to the HC since August 2011

  28. [ If the US Congress passes laws that clearly amend the agreed terms it will fall into a heap as no other party will regard themselves as bound. ]

    Good. If for no other reason than NOT having the ISDS provisions in force, a dead TPP of this sort is a good thing.

    Had a read of this last night which was interesting.

    http://www.hcourt.gov.au/assets/publications/speeches/current-justices/frenchcj/frenchcj09jul14.pdf

    Doing these sort of Govt to Govt agreements purely from the perspective of corporations and business is a losing game. The Govts involved need to be weighting the overall benefits to their actual populations, those who elect them, much more highly than business concerns. Not that that is going to happen when the Govt gets captured by cashed up business lobby groups. 🙁

  31. [ Mine was about -2.5/-3.7 so I think it’s rubbish 🙂 ]

    That reinforces my theory that you are not actually a completely irredeemable wanker davidwh. 🙂

  32. [26.Mine was about -2.5/-3.7 so I think it’s rubbish :)]

    That is enough to have you the outlier on both axes in the Thatcher direction – that must be pleasing?

    I really want to see young turk Nic’s scores

  33. DN many of the questions were too general with a very narrow response alternative. But you would have to be pretty mean-spirited to end up too far into the top right quadrant.

    I think the questions were designed by a leftie 🙂

  35. Judging by various polls about 80% of Aus population would be left on the Political Compass. And probably well over 50% would be on the Libertarian side. So its not much of a guide to anything.

  38. Interesting aspect to the whole “free trade” thing re: VW

    From the look of it the potential killer for VW is the fines per vehicle that can (and at law probably should) be levied on VW.

    Cant help but think that agreements are going to go out the window here as the German Govt makes appeals to other Govts not to go the whole hog on this as VW is such a major part of the German economy.

  39. [37.WWP I think I was actually closer to Ghandi than Thatcher.]

    I know the initial shock and pain is great for you but it is really a good thing

  44. I answered every question the complete opposite of what I believe & scored a 9/8.6! Move over Thatcher my bad half would kick your butt.

  45. I think it definitely overdoes it for leftiness. Basically seems that if you’re in favour of any regulation you’re a commie.

  47. Re: Political Compass…I have linked to this site on PB several times over the years.

    It analyses the policies of some of the political parties every federal election and places each party on the 4-square grid/locus.

    2013: https://www.politicalcompass.org/aus2013

    The Greens Party falls into the bottom left quadrant where many of you have scored.

    In contrast Labor, Liberals and Nationals cluster in the top right quadrant.

    Some of you need to reconcile your cognitive dissonance and change political allegiance 🙂

  48. https://newmatilda.com/2015/10/08/seven-important-takeaways-refugee-policy-nauru-and-pacific-solution
    [It’s been a huge week for Australia’s refugee and detention policies, or so it seems. Here’s what you need to know about it, writes Max Chalmers.

    For a policy area usually marked by silence, it’s been one hell of a noisy week.]
    Number 6:
    [The Leader of the Opposition wants Turnbull to bring the woman allegedly raped on Nauru to Australia so she can have an abortion here. It’s illegal on Nauru.

    Needless to say, he still supports the policy that leaves all the women at risk on Nauru there and the return of those who come to Australia for temporary medical help.

    The fact some arch-conservatives have called for the woman in question to be helped by Australia perhaps puts Shorten’s calls into context.]

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