The Australian today brings us the second Newspoll of the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership, and it’s a soft result for the Coalition, who led 51-49 in the previous poll but are now level with Labor. Despite a strong result for Turnbull personally his approval is up eight points to 50% with disapproval up one to 25%, as the initially uncommitted respondents jump off the fence there is no meaningful change on voting intention, with the Coalition primary vote down one to 43%, Labor steady on 35% and the Greens up one to 12%. Bill Shorten’s ratings are likewise effectively unchanged at 28% approval and 53% disapproval, both representing a one-point drop on the previous fortnight. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 55-21 to 57-19. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1631, by automated phone and online polling. The poll also finds 62% saying the Liberals did the right thing in replacing Tony Abbott with Malcolm Turnbull, with only 27% opposed. The breakdowns by party support are 56-36 among Coalition voters, 71-22 among Labor voters and 82-11 among Greens supporters. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday by automated phone and online polling, from a sample of 1631.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average has ticked a point in favour of Labor, as a particularly strong result for the Coalition two weeks ago washes out of the system. The Coalition’s lead is now at 51-49, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (up one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other findings show remarkably little opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has 49% approval and 16% disapproval, notwithstanding that 57% expect multi-national companies to benefit compared with only 32% for Australian workers and 31% for small businesses, and 62% saying they oppose allowing foreign companies to sue the Australian government for changes that cost them money, versus only 15% in support. A question of privatisation of various services finds across-the-board opposition, which is strongest for primary schools (25% approve, 58% disapprove) and weakest for public transport (37% approve, 47% disapprove). Regarding the threat of terrorism, an overwhelming 75% said the threat in Australia had increased in recent years compared with a mere 1% for decreased, and 20% for stayed about the same. Forty-five per cent said Australia’s participation in air strikes in Syria would make Australia less safe from terrorism, compared with 13% for more safe.