Newspoll: 50-50

The second Newspoll since the leadership change delivers Malcolm Turnbull a strong result on personal approval, but an unexpectedly weak one on voting intention.

The Australian today brings us the second Newspoll of the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership, and it’s a soft result for the Coalition, who led 51-49 in the previous poll but are now level with Labor. Despite a strong result for Turnbull personally – his approval is up eight points to 50% with disapproval up one to 25%, as the initially uncommitted respondents jump off the fence – there is no meaningful change on voting intention, with the Coalition primary vote down one to 43%, Labor steady on 35% and the Greens up one to 12%. Bill Shorten’s ratings are likewise effectively unchanged at 28% approval and 53% disapproval, both representing a one-point drop on the previous fortnight. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 55-21 to 57-19. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1631, by automated phone and online polling. The poll also finds 62% saying the Liberals did the right thing in replacing Tony Abbott with Malcolm Turnbull, with only 27% opposed. The breakdowns by party support are 56-36 among Coalition voters, 71-22 among Labor voters and 82-11 among Greens supporters. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday by automated phone and online polling, from a sample of 1631.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average has ticked a point in favour of Labor, as a particularly strong result for the Coalition two weeks ago washes out of the system. The Coalition’s lead is now at 51-49, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (up one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other findings show remarkably little opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has 49% approval and 16% disapproval, notwithstanding that 57% expect multi-national companies to benefit compared with only 32% for Australian workers and 31% for small businesses, and 62% saying they oppose allowing foreign companies to sue the Australian government for changes that cost them money, versus only 15% in support. A question of privatisation of various services finds across-the-board opposition, which is strongest for primary schools (25% approve, 58% disapprove) and weakest for public transport (37% approve, 47% disapprove). Regarding the threat of terrorism, an overwhelming 75% said the threat in Australia had increased in recent years compared with a mere 1% for decreased, and 20% for “stayed about the same”. Forty-five per cent said Australia’s participation in air strikes in Syria would make Australia less safe from terrorism, compared with 13% for more safe.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,603 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1h1 hour ago

    #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 50 (-1) ALP 50 (+1)

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Turnbull 57 (+2) Shorten 19 (-2)

    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 28 (-1) Disapprove 53 (-1)

    #Newspoll Turnbull: Approve 50 (+8) Disapprove 25 (+1)

    #Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 43 (-1) ALP 35 (0) GRN 12 (+1)

  2. Hi Happiness 🙂

    The fools are the liberal party for tearing down Abbott. IMO Abbott would have one the next election.

    I’ve since removed all Liberal links. I’ll vote for Libs in Senate and will not vote in HoR, the green paper is going into the ballot box blank.

    I’ve had ny whinge now. Thanks 🙂

  3. [John Of Melbourne
    ….Hi Happiness 🙂

    The fools are the liberal party for tearing down Abbott. IMO Abbott would have one the next election.]

    Possible, but was looking increasingly unlikely.

    [I’ve since removed all Liberal links…..]

    You must have been one of those resigning from the party Abetz was talking about.

    Anyhow, a mediocre result for Turnbull but a catastrophic result for Shorten here…….”Mr 19%” they will likely call him tomorrow in Parliament (remember that “Mr 18%” didn’t do too badly for himself as one of the longest serving Prime Ministers so a teen showing in PPM isn’t necessarily fatal…..well not fatal for long!).

  4. [paaptsef
    ….win a prize fo best Abbott luvva]

    I’ll leave that to Margie, thanks.

    Glad to see everyone is so happy. Tonight we all sleep with Happiness.

    Good night.

  5. [ Everything
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:57 pm | PERMALINK
    I am quiet and happy, quite true.

    I am also not having delusions……not sure everyone else here can say the same thing.

    I am, however, about to be having dreams, hopefully of the sweet and not nightmarish variety.

    Nighty-nighty ma petites….nighty-night! ]

  6. Yes I was.

    It was looking increasingly unlikely… Again, I think he would have got there.

    If Malcolm tanks… where to from there?

    50-50 headline, honeymoon is over.

  7. [IMO Abbott would have one the next election.]

    LOL. Your opinion isn’t shared by the poll trend data.

    Abbott was a deadweight on the LNP. Electoral poison. He would’ve killed for a 50-50.

    Of course, his departure doesn’t mean the LNP will win. It just makes it a whole lot more likely.

  8. John Of Melbourne

    You are dreaming, Abbott was unelectable and the sooner the Liberal Party moves on from what can only be decribed as a shambles of a government, the better off they will be.

    Abbott was an ordinary PM and wont be missed.

  9. [7
    John Of Melbourne

    Hi Happiness 🙂

    The fools are the liberal party for tearing down Abbott. IMO Abbott would have one (sic) the next election.]


    Abbott would have led the Liberals into a richly deserved electoral oblivion. Voters detest him. I know. I’ve been listening to them.

  10. Rogar

    Should chuck in a box of tissues for those who just can’t go, maybe red tissues to remind them of Tony’s buggies

  11. I’ll stick by my opinion. I’m not for swaying.

    They may like Malcolm but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll vote for him.

    [Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s appeal grows, but parties locked
    Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

    Voters overwhelmingly believe the Liberal Party did the right thing by replacing Tony Abbott with Malcolm Turnbull, according to the latest Newspoll. It shows support for the new Prime Minister continues to soar but the government and Labor are deadlocked at 50-50.

    The latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, also reveals Bill Shorten marks his two-years as Labor leader with fewer than one-in-five voters wanting him as prime minister.

    Mr Turnbull leads Mr Shorten as the preferred prime minister by 57 per cent to 19 per cent and the Prime Minister’s net satisfaction rating stands at 25 points while the Opposition Leader is at minus 25 points.

    But as parliament resumes tomorrow for the first time since Mr Turnbull announced the sweeping overhaul of the ministry, including more than doubling the number of women in cabinet to five, the surge of support for Mr Turnbull has not flowed through to a lift for the Coalition, which slipped one point in both primary and two-party-preferred terms.

    The poll of 1631 voters reveals that four weeks after the change of prime minister 62 per cent of Australians believe the Liberal Party did the right thing to replace Mr Abbott with Mr Turnbull while 27 per cent disagreed and 11 were uncommitted.

    Among Coalition voters, 56 per cent supported the change and 36 per cent opposed it. Mr Turnbull was heckled at the NSW Liberal Party state council meeting on Saturday while Mr Abbott was cheered.

    Labor and Green voters were dramatically in favour of the leadership change with 71 per cent support among ALP supporters and 82 per cent of Greens backing the switch.

    Overall support for the Coalition fell one point to 43 per cent in the three weeks since the last Newspoll but the govern­ment’s primary vote remains at an 18-month high. Labor’s primary vote was unchanged at a four-month low of 35 per cent. The Greens gained one point to 12 per cent and support for independents and other parties was unchanged at 10 per cent.

    Based on preference flows from the last election, the one-point shift from the Coalition to the Greens lifts Labor’s two-party vote and leaves the government and opposition tied at 50-50.]

  13. in true form, the Oz newspoll story focuses on LNP voters being happy that abbott is gone and not on turnbull’s honeymoon looking shaky.

  14. Michelle quick off the mark with her own article on the poll. No paywall.
    [Voters love Turnbull but reserve judgement about his government: Newspoll
    October 11, 2015 11.11pm AEDT
    Michelle Grattan
    Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The Coalition and opposition are tied on 50-50% in the latest Newspoll despite Malcolm Turnbull having an overwhelming 57-19% lead as preferred prime minister.

    The government has slipped a point in the two-party vote since the previous poll three weeks ago, when the change of leader had taken it into a 51-49% lead after being behind for 30 consecutive polls under Tony Abbott.

    The results comes as Parliament resumes after a three-week break, when much focus will be on whether the ructions of the leadership change have settled.]

  15. John of Melbourne

    If your Tony was so good, why was he traveling so badly, even the traditional supporters of the Liberal Party were dismissing him and Hockey as hopeless.

    His downfall was due to his performance, if you can’t see that, then you are as blind as those who think Gillard’s only problem was a missing body part.

  16. The only benefit of having Tony Abbott lead the Liberals to the next election would have been watching him be politically smashed.

    At the time of his removal he was already on track to lose 25 to 35 seats, people can point to Howard however this overlooks the many differences between them both and the oppositions they face.

    The ALP are far stronger now than they were in 1998 or 2001 and Howard/Costello were far better performers than Abbott/Hockey were.

  17. John Of Melbourne

    In other words you think you know better yet can’t be bothered putting that argument forward, is that because deep down you know Abbott was a dud.

  18. John of Melbourne

    To test my point what would the Liberals have based their election campaign on, picture yourself as a marginal seat member standing at the local shopping center or train station, how could you convince anyone that Abbott was a good PM.

  19. Surely this is a result that Turnbull would be able to use to shore up his position wrt the right faction in the Liberal Party? Increased regard for him but decreased regard for his party

  20. Asha Leu
    Posted Sunday, October 11, 2015 at 11:46 pm | PERMALINK
    @Happiness 11

    Yeah, I’m sure Shorten will be crying himself to sleep
    over this result.

    —-that’s the problem, he wont, mr 19% … looks like a good week for bill coming up all in all …will he survive it undamaged?

  21. roger —

    o just someone who can speak and think aloud with passion and erudition

    look bill in right occasion can be persuasive and engaging – but then why the 19% – he generally just doesn’t connect entertain with ideas

  22. geoffrey #40
    [So what would Newspoll’s result be with a more outstanding Labor leader?]

    About the same of this one, I guess.

  23. Turnbull v someone else who has no qualms about telling bald faced lies regarding the cost of Australia’s telecommunications would make a dream comedy

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