The Australian today brings us the second Newspoll of the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership, and it’s a soft result for the Coalition, who led 51-49 in the previous poll but are now level with Labor. Despite a strong result for Turnbull personally – his approval is up eight points to 50% with disapproval up one to 25%, as the initially uncommitted respondents jump off the fence – there is no meaningful change on voting intention, with the Coalition primary vote down one to 43%, Labor steady on 35% and the Greens up one to 12%. Bill Shorten’s ratings are likewise effectively unchanged at 28% approval and 53% disapproval, both representing a one-point drop on the previous fortnight. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 55-21 to 57-19. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1631, by automated phone and online polling. The poll also finds 62% saying the Liberals did the right thing in replacing Tony Abbott with Malcolm Turnbull, with only 27% opposed. The breakdowns by party support are 56-36 among Coalition voters, 71-22 among Labor voters and 82-11 among Greens supporters. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday by automated phone and online polling, from a sample of 1631.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average has ticked a point in favour of Labor, as a particularly strong result for the Coalition two weeks ago washes out of the system. The Coalition’s lead is now at 51-49, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (up one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other findings show remarkably little opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has 49% approval and 16% disapproval, notwithstanding that 57% expect multi-national companies to benefit compared with only 32% for Australian workers and 31% for small businesses, and 62% saying they oppose allowing foreign companies to sue the Australian government for changes that cost them money, versus only 15% in support. A question of privatisation of various services finds across-the-board opposition, which is strongest for primary schools (25% approve, 58% disapprove) and weakest for public transport (37% approve, 47% disapprove). Regarding the threat of terrorism, an overwhelming 75% said the threat in Australia had increased in recent years compared with a mere 1% for decreased, and 20% for “stayed about the same”. Forty-five per cent said Australia’s participation in air strikes in Syria would make Australia less safe from terrorism, compared with 13% for more safe.
paaptsef #48
You mean:
Malcolm Turnbull vs. Malcolm Turnbull
I’m not sure even the 66 Liberal party taxpayer funded spin doctors could put a pin in that one
Apropos of nothing, but it amused me when I read this as I believe that Turnbull is PJK’s local MP.
Which has no significance whatsoever of course, but still.
From Rupert’s organ:
And 44 Liberal MPs out of 99 opposed the change from TA to MT.
So a bit more than one third of MPs and COALition voters want Tony back.
Its not a majority, obviously, but it is substantial and the election winning lead has all but disappeared, so it seems at this stage, so the future for Mal is uncertain.
Such numbers, were they to be repeated for long, would be a huge encouragement to the Jacobite faction in the Liberals. Perhaps Abbott’s dog-whistling has already taken a point off the 2PP. Parliament sits again from tomorrow for a couple of weeks so there will be more visuals, possibly more broadcast truculence. It would not take a lot to whittle the 2PP back into the red….
briefly #55
I believe they prefer to be called the ‘Puritans’.
peter garrett
i wish ex politicians would shut up
noone is perfect – peter got a lot out of rudd’s victory – who asked him to join party??? probably not rudd. rudd bigger danger to country than howard – this from the ex rocker against war and all things american – what a joke
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pKPNnk-JhE
somehow it never seenms quite right if you don’t listen to this next https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66FeJzGvfTg
paaptsef #58
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pKPNnk-JhE
Wow. I’ve forgotten that Peter Garret dances like he’s having an epileptic fit.
which is bad because?
paaptsef #61
His dancing’s not bad… it’s just, for me at least, a little bit awkward to watch.
DISCLAIMER: My Opinion only.
Millennial #62
I do like a lot of Midnight Oil’s songs though.
millennial
we all like garrett’s midnight oil songs – bit hard to reconcile with the role as minister and some of conservative things he did (forgotten at moment) in education … i wish any interview ask him to reconcile and point finger as hope of a generation or two which he sort of didn’t realize in politics …. i mean garrett set the bar high for himself, but takes no responsibility for his change
Perhaps if people prefer ALP policy they would prefer the ALP?
About the only thing Turnbull has actually done is soften the tone on the “death cult”. I approve of the change in rhetoric, but I am an ALP voter.
The personal popularity numbers suggest he is being given a lot of slack, but perhaps not much respect? He has had 6 years to work on an agenda yet I seriously have no idea what he stands for as PM on a range of issues. Especially the many issues he previously had strong opinions on.
Unless this poll is a crap sample then Shorten can sleep much better than I expected.
Geoffrey, could you please give examples?
No doubt there is a degree of spin in this http://www.petergarrett.com.au/education/
but it really would be good if someone who feels the need to criticise Garrett’s record as education minister could actually point out what the criticism is
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/peter-garrett-banned-from-queensland-schools-by-campbell-newman-in-gonski-funding-row/story-fnihsrf2-1226662075428
Peter Garrett banned from Queensland schools by Campbell Newman in Gonski funding row
if Ireland lose this game to France, I’m blaming Garrett
I believe the correct technical term is “dead cat bounce”. That’s because Lord Waffle of Wentworth, like Abbott and Shorten, is a legendary leader only in his own mind. Attempting to turn the LNP into the Greens in a business suit isn’t impressing the 53% 2PP who voted for Abbott in 2013. Having said that, there are some heroic assumptions by Newspoll — e.g. the demand for predominantly non-left independents has dropped from 12.4% to 10% of the primary vote since 2013, when anecdotally the demand for non-left fringe parties is increasing. Newspoll’s 12% vote for the Greens is also mainly a notional protest vote as the Greens’ actual primary vote collapsed from 11.8% to 8.7% between 2010 and 2013.
Maybe the people are intelligent enough to understand that while Turnbull may be considered a “modern man” by many on both sides of the political spectrum, the mob behind him still want to push the disastrous hard-right policies of the PM he just replaced. A week ago I thought Turnbull could become one of our greatest ever leaders, but after seeing the childish behaviour of LNP delegates booing him this weekend, I think he will be torn down by the backroom boys who will always put their own self-interest & factions ahead of what is best for Australia.
Scott Ford
Not so sure about the greatest; but the booing; left me thinking Turnbull can’t do it; the Liberal party is what the liberal party has become; “grass roots” rubish. Shorten is in with a chance. The result does not surprise.
It looks like I binned a b that I shouldn’t have. I of cause blame the Iphone I don’t own.
IF (big if) this poll is accurate, several things flow:
1. Tim Dick in the SMH who wrote today that Shorten has almost no chance at the next election is beyond a galah – they really pay you to write that stuff Tim.
2. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of the PPM split is really a split between Turnbull / Abbott. Be interested to know if the pollsters first ask if it was a good idea to remove Abbott before they get onto the PPM.
3. As we’ve been saying on this blog for a long time, support for Turnbull’s party is sullen at best. Voters could well end up thinking he’s jesus christ and boot this mob out. And let’s not forget it’s still full of prize gooses like Pyne, Brandis et al.
And finally, it shows how desperate the Tory Press is that the AFR’s headline today is that Malcolm is “exploring” innovating funding for infrastructure (an obvious attempt to drown out Labor’s announcement in this area). Well, I want to explore mars. Big deal. Time to take the plan out of holding pattern Malcolm and try to land it.
Don’t forget that, in the leadership spill a lot of MPs would have voted for Malcolm for no other reason than they saw themselves as blocked for preferment under Abbott. If you think you should be in the outer-ministry or Cabinet and think you will get there under Malcolm, then ideology wouldn’t really matter.
Good morning.
Australia’s state and territory councils of social service are calling on the federal government to set a target to reduce the number of Australians living in poverty and to develop a national plan to tackle the issue.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/national-poverty-plan-needed-say-welfare-groups-20151011-gk6ajd.html#ixzz3oHtObuBk
Labor will release details of its plan to safeguard Australian jobs under the China free trade agreement, trade spokeswoman Penny Wong says.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/penny-wong-challenges-malcolm-turnbull-to-negotiate-on-china-free-trade-agreement-20151010-gk65kr.html#ixzz3oHtkTcDP
The Turnbull government has not yet turned its mind to reform of political donations but the issue will likely be discussed at the next Council of Australian Government meeting, due to be held in December.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-has-not-yet-turned-its-mind-to-donation-reform-20151011-gk699i.html#ixzz3oHtyaOX8
Malcolm Turnbull has promised a new innovation policy for Australia by Christmas. Bill Shorten has pledged to be a “jobs prime minister for the new economy”. For the first time in a long while, the political rhetoric matches a genuinely huge national policy challenge.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/australia-being-left-behind-in-the-innovation-stakes-20151011-gk68ro.html#ixzz3oHu9hxh4
Trump. “What’s happening in Germany, I always thought Merkel was, like, this great leader. What she’s done in Germany is insane. It’s insane.”
http://www.theage.com.au/world/migrant-crisis/migrant-crisis-donald-trump-angela-merkel-insane-to-take-so-many-refugees-20151011-gk6ita.html#ixzz3oHuKpOB0
Workplace racism can be subtle, in the form of a look or a comment. Other times it is more overt; an insult, a slur.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/african-students-get-leg-up-into-workforce-20151008-gk4ad2.html#ixzz3oHuhzOmo
PNG chiefs talk of civil war over unpopular Australian bank deal. They are incensed that the PNG government has obstructed court processes by banning their Queensland lawyer, Greg Egan, from entering the country.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/well-turn-off-the-taps-png-chiefs-challenge-australian-bank-deal-20151009-gk58dq.html#ixzz3oHvlEogi
Garrett wrote supporting Kevin Rudd was “certainly the biggest” mistake he made in his political career.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-garrett-says-kevin-rudd-was-a-danger-to-australia-in-tv-interview-20151011-gk6i04.html#ixzz3oHwPhkDa
The Fair Work Ombudsman launched action against the former store owners, Yiran “Janice” Gu and Haiyao “Harry” Xu, of Balwyn North
http://www.theage.com.au/business/workplace-relations/7eleven-operator-to-face-court-over-illegal-wages-20151011-gk66me.html#ixzz3oHwjpgO5
Before the program began deaths by funnel web spider bites were much more common, however since its introduction there have been no deaths in NSW.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/nsw-reminded-to-help-catch-funnel-web-spiders-to-help-with-antivenom-stocks-20151010-gk5wbj.html#ixzz3oHx0821g
The government faces calls to overhaul the nation’s energy markets after the removal of all price controls has resulted in soaring retail margins for energy retailers.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/energy-companies-gouging-households-because-they-can-20151009-gk586i.html#ixzz3oHxJH42u
The Napthine and Andrews governments have approved high-density high-rise apartment blocks in Fishermans Bend – the antithesis of what the group argues is suitable for the area.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/city-sprawl-or-skyscraper-tall-why-cant-melbourne-do-urban-design-better-20151010-gk65r7.html#ixzz3oHxg5bnR
Bob Ellis came back from the dead in Glebe to perform the words of some dead men, some live ones and a fictional one on Sunday.
http://www.theage.com.au/nsw/bob-ellis-back-in-full-churchillian-roar-20151011-gk6f58.html#ixzz3oHxrHOEx
“Shaming people, stigmatising people around food, eating, weight and body image, actually demotivates them and in fact increases the risk of people being more unhealthy,”
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/too-many-sugary-drinks-could-be-deadly-say-health-experts-20151009-gk5ejk.html#ixzz3oHy9YqiY
Ross Gittins tries to dispel some of the common myths surrounding mental illness with help from the OECD report, Sick on the Job.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/mental-health-systems-focus-on-white-middleclass-australia-costs-lives-20151009-gk517c.html#ixzz3oHyZqYJm
Doctors at the Royal Children’s Hospital say they cannot effectively treat severe disturbances among children in detention while they are being detained.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/royal-childrens-hospital-refused-to-discharge-mother-and-child-to-detention-20151011-gk6exf.html#ixzz3oHywDDN4
Long-term camps can be the scene of damaging bullying for some vulnerable children as they are housed with the tormentors they manage to avoid normally at school.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/psychologist-warns-of-afterdark-bullying-at-longterm-school-camps-20151009-gk5561.html#ixzz3oHz4xkcb
Company behind portable cricket pitch technology helping in redesign of Canberra’s Floriade flower festival in 2016
http://www.theage.com.au/act-news/company-behind-portable-cricket-pitch-technology-helping-in-redesign-of-canberras-floriade-flower-festival-in-2016-20151008-gk40sd.html#ixzz3oHzSPiUS
Turnbull: Maintaining a connection with peers and friends during hospitalisation can be crucial for a student’s social and emotional wellbeing, while continuing academic progress is important for long-term commitment to learning.”
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-60000-sick-children-not-getting-the-education-they-need-report-20151011-gk6brg.html#ixzz3oHztvU22
Fairfax Media received an angry email from one of the passengers who claimed the Royal Caribbean and ship’s captain deceived them about a scheduled stop in Broome. Instead, they stopped at Port Hedland, the highlight of which they said, was a bus trip to the local Woolworths.
http://www.theage.com.au/wa-news/perth-passengers-on-royal-caribbean-cruise-angry-at-broome-swap-for-port-hedland-20151008-gk4qsv.html#ixzz3oI0YLSTC
Queensland’s crossbench Katter’s Australian Party MPs are reportedly threatening to “make it harder” for the state government to pass bills if they don’t crack down on Uber.
http://www.theage.com.au/queensland/rob-katter-threatens-queensland-government-over-uber-20151011-gk6aoy.html#ixzz3oI0mMlbx
Vanstone: Is anyone keeping an eye on what your local council is up to?
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/lack-of-scrutiny-lets-local-government-get-away-with-murder-20151008-gk4qt2.html#ixzz3oI18MFpq
Many economists aren’t as conscious as they should be that competition has costs as well as benefits.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/competition-does-have-its-drawbacks-20151010-gk5zqc.html#ixzz3oI1Kn6mA
Australia’s gas majors have been able to frighten the populace and their politicians with tales of supply shortages, while prodding through hefty price hikes.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/east-coast-gas-market-has-all-the-hallmarks-of-a-cartel-20151011-gk6b4i.html#ixzz3oI1bIEza
Thousands of people in Australian cities have responded to a national call to rally in support of refugees and to push for the end of mandatory detention.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/11/asylum-seeker-rallies-across-australia-draw-thousands-in-support-of-refugees
As bushfire season gets under way, with houses lost in Victoria and a man charged with arson in NSW, Casa aims to keep skies clear for firefighting
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/oct/11/flying-a-drone-near-a-bushfire-risks-9000-fine-aviation-safety-body-warns
And how’s all that state government privatisation working out, huh? Your oddly regional news of the day, reduced to a snarky rant.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-what-would-a-dirty-great-big-oil-spill-in-sa-look-like-20151011-gk6d7y.html#ixzz3oI3DHB7f
Based on the primaries only it would seem that 1% of voters have swung Green. This probably simply reflects the Green voters who were initially hopeful that Turnbull would introduce and ETS. Now they know he will not they are reverting to voting Green with preference to ALP.
Morning all. The poll suggests not much has happened yet with Turnbull, and that seems about right. Turnbull has made a lot of nice sounding noises in speeches, and that explains his personal popularity. But as Scott Ford points out, he leads a mainly far right caucus and so far is unable to deliver any substantial policy shifts on major issues yet, hence the 2PP is still in the balance.
Dtt
Given MOE, can we really say anything about the Greens vote from this poll?
A bit of a holding position post-coup in my view. Voters still mightily unimpressed with Shorten but they
await clearer signs on Turnbull’s new policy direction before locking in their vote with him. Also this
week in Canberra will be very important. If Abbott keeps up his sniping and griping in plain view
campaign, emboldened by the weekend party jeering of Turnbull I expect more upside for Turnbull
as they contemplate afresh the awfulness of Abbott.
HAH good poll result. I think Mal’s a bit too wet and the rednecks are seeing labor lite.
Campbell Newman’s final toll road tunnel has been working for a few months now, reducing travel times on one arterial but making little difference to travel time on the busier road, Coronation Drive.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/legacy-way-figures-reveal-time-savings-in-tunnels-first-three-months-20151011-gk6ft8.html
Was this worth $1.5 billion? I doubt it. This latest project was not subject to the sort of liars’ poker bidding contest that led to wildly inflated traffic forecasts on the other tunnels. Yet it still is not carrying much traffic. Campbell Newman’s Transapex was simply a bad idea, putting all the cities eggs in one (freeway) basket when people’s preferences were shifting towards public transport, walking and cycling. For the $10 billion price, the rail tunnel that was really needed could have been built, plus a world class light rail system could have been added with the change. Transapex will forever stand as Newman’s Folly.
Morning all
Have to say I was a little Surprised by Newspoll. Parliament resumes today, as well as Turc, which will be focussing on Shorten’s negotiations etc
And a big thank you Lzzie!
victoria
Did you get the storm last night? I haven’t seen rain like that since I was in a Queensland storm and for the first time gutters overflowed all round the house.
lizzie
In my neck of woods, had storms both Saturday and Sunday afternnoon. Big heavy downpours. Right now it is raining. I checked the radar. Looks like it is just over my area. Whilst it is welcome, son has contractors lined up this morning to start putting up roof on his rebuild.
Turnbul’s reasoning for taking over from Abbott was the polls. Are the malcontents going to hark up now
It is still far too early to determine any real trend. Turnbull has yet to take any controversial policy to the parliament and has not had enough time to make the inevitable gaffes that could bring him down a peg or two.
I think we will need at least another three months or so to see which way the wind is blowing, so I am holding off on any judgement till then.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-12/tony-abbott-returns-to-backbench-after-two-decades/6845074
2x 50-50 results in a row. Seems like the honeymoon is over.
What these polls tell us is what Turnbull is worth on his own. This is as good as it gets for him unless he can deliver.
The picture emerging appears to be that Turnbull was popular because he was a symbol of resistance to the present Liberal government (albeit one who really didn’t do much resisting). For Turnbull supporters, it wasn’t just about getting rid of Abbott, but of changing the government’s direction in significant ways.
If Turnbull goes along to get along, he may well continue to poll well as PPM. If he makes minor tweaks, his PPM may improve. If he changes the direction of the party significantly, then he can deliver the polling results the Liberals expected him to (and anyone who thinks that those dumping Abbott are content with 50/50 – or even 52/48 – doesn’t understand the panic of a backbencher).
Turnbull needed to use his putative polling strength early, to establish his authority in the party. Ironically, if he’d done this, and we were looking at present polling numbers, there would be an argument that these were the cost of stamping his authority.
He has failed to do this, and the polls for the Liberals are now clearly not strong enough for him to do so now.
I’m not saying this is as good as it gets for Turnbull. He may well turn things around. But on the evidence so far, he has failed to capitalise on his first few weeks of Not Being Abbott and this means any changes he wants to make (my contention is that he really doesn’t want to make any, but get there on sheer charisma and dogwhistling people like ModLib) will be all the harder for him.
Morning all.
FWIW I think people are just waiting and seeing what the govt does from here. But it’s worth noting that after the first couple of polls following the leadership change, Mumble was saying the polls would only get better for the govt. That hasn’t quite eventuated yet.
All I can find this morning are two new one’s from David Rowe, but they are very good. The link takes you to the latest one, then you can click through to the second one.
http://www.afr.com/content//afr/photogallery/brand/david-rowes-cartoons-20141024-11beym.html
Good Morning
Nice surprise from Newspoll. Maybe voters are not as clueless as some thought. Looking at you Canberra Press Gallery.
Of course this is just one poll post Turnbull. The question I have if other polls join this one does it indicate the 24 hour news cycle means honeymoon periods have shortened?
My opinion, & (I hope I’m not verballing him too much) that of the person I usually discuss politics with, is that to a mostly disengaged electorate Turnbull LOOKS like a Prime Minister. I think that, & perhaps a vague memory of past feelgood positions, is what currently keeps him aloft.
“@JeffreyLuscombe: Elections Canada reports higher voter turnout for advance polls this weekend http://t.co/TVrM8JEn7Y via @torontostar”
http://www.afr.com/personal-finance/superannuation-and-smsfs/big-banks-grab-10b-in-super-fees-industry-funds-say-20151011-gk68e2#ixzz3oIcByWx7