BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition

The upward swing to the Coalition continues, with the BludgerTrack poll aggregate now recording the Coalition improving on their 2013 election performance in New South Wales.

This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate again records a fairly solid shift in favour of the Coalition, although it’s only yielded them one extra seat on the seat projection – that being in New South Wales, where the Coalition is now being credited with one more seat than it won in 2013. The aggregate is back to being determined through a trend calculation, using only the polling from the Turnbull era (note that this isn’t the case on the charts shown on the sidebar, which suggest a much higher result at present for the Coalition). However, the bias adjustments for Essential Research and Roy Morgan are still being determined in a very crude fashion. This is particularly an issue for the latter, given its idiosyncratic Turnbull era results. Both pollsters have been determined simply on the basis of the flurry of polling that emerged the week after the leadership change, the benchmark being provided by Newspoll, Galaxy and ReachTEL, which remain subject to the same bias adjustments used in the Abbott era. The adjustment to the Labor primary vote for Morgan is particularly pronounced (over +5%), which also means it’s getting a very low weighting in the trend determination. These bias adjustments will be recalculated as new results from the other pollsters become available to benchmark them against.

Also worth noting:

• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports it is “all but certain” that Joe Hockey will be succeeded as the Liberal candidate for North Sydney by Trent Zimmerman, factional moderate and the party’s New South Wales state president. Hockey’s support for Zimmerman is said to have sealed the deal, although it is also reported that he had earlier approached the state Treasurer, Gladys Berejiklian. Other mooted candidates are Tim James, chief executive of Medicines Australia, and John Hart, chief executive of Restaurant and Catering Australia. James is a member for the Right, and is also mentioned as a potential candidate to succeed Tony Abbott in Warringah, or Jillian Skinner in the state seat of North Shore.

• The issue of Senate electoral reform could be heading towards a compromise more conducive to minor parties than the proposal of straightforward optional preferential voting above and below the line, as was proposed last year by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. Key to the argument is whether group voting tickets should be abolished, a path favoured by Nick Xenophon but fiercely opposed by the micro-party Senators, the most active being David Leyonhjelm. Xenophon has approached the government with a proposal that would require above-the-line voters to number at least three boxes, and below-the-line voters to number at least 12, resulting in a greater flow of preferences to smaller players. Antony Green also argues that the resulting increase in the number of live votes in the final stages of the count would reduce the chances of the final seat being decided in a random fashion. Leyonhjelm has sought a middle path by proposing the retention of group voting tickets and one number above-the-line voting, while relieving the burden on below-the-line voters by requiring that they number a minimum of six boxes – very much the same as applies for the Victorian upper house, except that the minimum number of boxes there is five. At the November 2014 state election, 94% of voters went above-the-line in the upper house, helping to elect two members of Shooters & Fishers and one each from the Sex Party, the DLP and Vote 1 Local Jobs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,636 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition”

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  2. Good morning.
    Switch to Malcolm Turnbull to save five Liberal seats: Michael Kroger
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/kroger-tells-party-faithful-turnbull-will-save-5-liberal-seats-at-400000-fundraiser-20151007-gk3892.html#ixzz3nrsNwbtW
    The purging!
    Tony Nutt is poised to replace Brian Loughnane as federal director of the Liberal Party in a move that would complete the purge of the power triangle involving his wife Peta Credlin and former prime minister Tony Abbott.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-nutt-tipped-to-replace-brian-loughnane-as-liberal-party-federal-director-20151007-gk36i0.html#ixzz3nrsXewd1
    Whether or not paywalls will prove to be the salvation of mainstream journalism is still a hotly debated topic; but there’s good reason to doubt it.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/pay-up-or-lose-benefits-of-mainstream-media-20151005-gk1yg4.html#ixzz3nrsoZEn6
    You might have missed it if you blinked last week, but we suddenly seem to have something like consensus that the over-generous nature of our superannuation system for the well-off will be changed. That was the closest thing to a concrete result from Malcolm Turnbull’s mini-summit.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/superannuation-change-is-coming–time-to-load-it-up-20151006-gk2xkh.html#ixzz3nrt7NYje
    “You can make a dirty bomb, which would be perfect for the Islamic State,” the smuggler said. “If you have a connection with them, the business will go smoothly.”
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/nuclear-smugglers-shopping-arsenal-around-to-terrorists-20151007-gk34jd.html#ixzz3nrtW1gFT
    The impacts of the monster El Nino in the Pacific are likely to intensify across much of Australia, including worsening drought and an elevated bushfire threat, after conditions that were nullifying its effects suddenly retreated, the Bureau of Meteorology said.
    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/el-nino-unmasked-changing-conditions-point-to-rampedup-risks-for-australia-20151007-gk31ga.html#ixzz3nua39g8G
    Bill Shorten is poised to unveil an ambitious plan aimed at turbo-charging jobs and growth via a $10 billion financing facility for new public works and up-front commitments to get blocked major projects moving.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-to-unveil-10b-concrete-bank-to-fund-major-projects-20151007-gk3fas.html#ixzz3nuaMLuUd

  3. Victoria has a new infrastructure planning body, Infrastructure Victoria, to develop the next list of things that may or may not be built. The brief is to develop a 30-year infrastructure strategy detailing short, medium and long-term needs.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/infrastructure-victoria-what-do-we-need-the-most-time-to-talk-20151007-gk3brp.html#ixzz3nuaap7SV
    The bombardment marked the first naval salvos in Russia’s week-old military intervention and another sharp escalation of Moscow’s firepower in Syria’s multi-faction civil war.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/russia-fires-missiles-from-warships-as-syrian-government-opens-ground-offensive-20151007-gk3s81.html#ixzz3nuaqxPfw
    Travelling Australian fans are furious with a ticket pricing scheme that has forced them to pay 16 times the price of an admission to watch the Socceroos play Jordan in a World Cup Qualifier.
    http://www.theage.com.au/sport/soccer/socceroos-fans–in-jordan-face-1600-price-rise-and-warning-to-conceal-support-for-australia-20151007-gk3rc5.html#ixzz3nub1Fw00
    Radicalised Muslims joining Islamic State are not just rebels, they are violent Islamists
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/authorities-must-fight-islamic-state-fire-with-own-fire-20151006-gk2x7o.html#ixzz3nubXBg3e
    Sarah Ferguson: In the pursuit of good stories, are journalists colluding with the wrong side?
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/message-managers-ramp-up-the-war-against-public-broadcasters-20151007-gk366u.html#ixzz3nubnAo5O
    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has told Christopher Pyne to release his “inner revolutionary” as Industry Minister and not to worry about how to pay for big new ideas to make Australia’s economy more innovative.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christopher-pyne-to-release-his-inner-revolutionary-20151007-gk3i20.html#ixzz3nuc08CbU
    Australia is often praised for its quality of life, but a new report has singled out the lucky country as one of the best places in the world to die. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-one-of-the-best-places-in-the-world-to-die-20151007-gk3kdk.html#ixzz3nucAj85x

  4. Defence Minister Marise Payne has delivered a blunt message that the Turnbull government will not take a softer line than its predecessor on Chinese provocations over flashpoint maritime disputes.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/marise-payne-australia-will-oppose-intimidation-and-aggression-in-veiled-warning-to-china-20151007-gk3azq.html#ixzz3nucOmdvX
    The Australian Tax Office will open negotiations with 80 multinational companies to encourage them to “restructure” in order to pay more tax on profits generated in Australia.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ato-widens-its-multinational-tax-avoidance-net-to-80-companies-20151007-gk37zo.html#ixzz3nucZUTam
    Commodity trading giant Glencore has fired a shot across the bows of those who support the use of public funds for projects such as the Adani coal mine in Queensland, arguing it would hurt rest of the industry.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/glencore-warns-on-taxpayer-support-for-new-coal-projects-20151007-gk3h5y.html#ixzz3nudUBXdY
    There’s a lot to be said from a productivity perspective for banning staff from taking work home.
    http://www.theage.com.au/small-business/managing/the-venture/should-weekend-work-be-restricted-20151007-gk3i3c.html#ixzz3nuddOMub
    “I never thought for a moment that a small bar in a suburb of Sydney would win the international award.”
    http://www.executivestyle.com.au/sydneys-archie-rose-wins-top-bar-design-award-gk2yz5
    Government offers to forego half the $6bn savings from its stalled family tax benefit cuts in order to get legislation through the Senate
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/oct/08/scott-morrison-willing-to-sacrifice-3bn-in-family-benefit-cuts-if-senators-agree
    Nauru’s decision to allow asylum seekers to move around at all times becomes a core element of the Australian government’s defence in a high court challenge
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/oct/07/nauru-open-centres-asylum-seeker-fighting-offshore-detention-high-court
    Sheehan. The Liberal-led federal government is illiberal in its attitudes towards freedom of speech. Switching the leadership from Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull has changed nothing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-government-is-running-scared-from-the-freedom-to-offend-20151007-gk3j32.html#ixzz3nufRoOUt
    High school competitions were the first step in many politicians’ careers, but it has left many unable to compromise.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-school-debating-has-ruined-australian-politics-20151007-gk33nh.html#ixzz3nuffbkQh
    Contracts that prevent employees from going on to work for competitors are outdated and stifling creativity.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/ban-restrictive-non-compete-clauses-in-employment-contracts-to-let-innovation-flourish-20151007-gk372e.html#ixzz3nufpibGf
    And all those alleged assaults on Nauru are apparently made up, despite all the evidence to the contrary.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-abbott-confident-that-history-will-vindicate-him-somehow-20151007-gk3k3k.html#ixzz3nugC0TNQ

  6. Good Morning

    “@ReutersPolitics: BREAKING: Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton does not support the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact: PBS”

  9. lizzie

    Yes the chances of enough Democrats to block the TPP in Congress just went up. Both presidential candidates now oppose it.

  10. “@political_alert: Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews will hold a doorstop at St Albans Level Crossing, 8.15am #auspol”

  11. G’day all and thanks lizzie

    Editorial standards at The Age seem to have reached an all-time low.

    I read that story by Julie Szego (the fourth link in lizzie’ second post) twice and still find myself unable to work out what point she was trying to make or even if she had one. Is she yearning for the days when Abbott droned on about the Daesh death cult? Has she only just stumbled across the fact (hardly news) that many “disaffected” youth who do all sorts crazy things come from loving families and are high achievers at school. She apparently wants “us” to help these kids by “confronting” the radical Muslim ideology that attracts them.

    But how? She doesn’t say anything.

    Thr article should have been spiked, or else the author asked to turn it into a background piece about the families and communities that ISIS converts come from.

    Major editorial fail IMO.

  12. meher

    There has been some weird commentary on this lately. Gives the impression that the commentators don’t really know much and are flailing about to earn their appearance fees.

  15. From the floods in the US:
    Meteorologist Steve Bowen told USA Today that the fact that the flooding in South Carolina was the sixth “1-in-1,000 year” rain event since 2010 was unprecedented. That term means that the event had a 0.1 percent likelihood of occurring in any given year.
    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/10/07/3709459/south-carolina-flooding-impacts/

    Someone should ask Andrew Bolt ‘if this is not climate change, what is it?’

  18. S

    [The article should have been spiked, or else the author asked to turn it into a background piece about the families and communities that ISIS converts come from.

    Major editorial fail IMO.]

    Perhaps a sign of where journalism is going/gone ? Writing about the why and how needs expertise and background work time and effort. Far easier to write up the bleeding obvious for immediate consumption.

  19. booleanbach

    [Someone should ask Andrew Bolt ‘if this is not climate change, what is it?’]
    Something like, the numbers are dodgy as weather bureaus are part of the global left wing conspiracy that is “climate change”.

  21. No surprise Lisa Neville is struggling in her role as Enviroment Minister in the Vic Govt, despite being the shadow for 4 years.

    The controlled burnoff from her dept that turned out of control ovr the long weekend has been very poorly handled by the Govt. Running for cover and blame shifting seems to be the way to go. Also leaking a report on the possibility of the desal plant (same dept) finally coming on line as a means of distraction lasted all of a day.

    I hope the compensation figure when finalised will be publicly released, but I doubt it.

  22. taylormade

    What crap. Lisa Neville has instigated an independent investigation.

    Btw there was also burning on private ppty over weekend.

  23. Victoria

    Another independant investigation ordered by Lisa Neville – can add this one to the many she ordered when she was a minister in the Bracks/Brumby governments. Seems to be her specialty.

    Obviously the burns on private property were better controlled than the dept sanctioned ones. A little local knowledge goes a long way.

  26. Irony rules. Today the air is calm here, no fire ban, so I went out to light a moderate pile of prunings and weeds. Took me five tries to get the flippin thing alight. Too green. Dead blackberry stalks finally did the trick. (And I never use petrol, since you ask.)

  28. victoria@27

    Barrie cassidy will be doing his segment with Jon Faine shortly on ABC774. Probably will be singing Truffles praises

    I liked the way cassidy was calling ‘good week’ multiple times – as abbott was swirling the drain then went down it.

    *Great Calls* 🙂

    Almost as good as ESJ and certain ‘others’ here.

  29. So, William, if they get some sensible amendments to the Senate voting rules through, a DD just before the deadline of 11th May*, election 50-75 days later (2nd, 9th, 16th or 23rd July), elect a Senate without too many freaks in it, and their terms will start on the 1st July 2016** and the short-term ones expire 30th June 2019 and the House can have close to a full term? Could all work out very neatly.

    * Can’t have a DD within 6 months of the expiry of the House of Reps, which is 3 years after its first sitting, which was 11th Nov 2013.

    ** Section 13 of Const – after a DD a Senator’s term “shall be taken to begin on the first day of January July preceding the day of his election”. Despite the High Court’s funny interpretation of when an MP is ‘elected’ in Cleary’s case, a definite phrase like “the day” of his (or her) election could not mean the nomination date. It would have to mean the general election date or just possibly the even later date when the result is declared. So no argument for backdating the terms to 1st July this year!

  35. Should explain – I meant the House can have close to a full term without separating House and Senate elections – but you all got that didn’t you?

  36. Interesting Cassidy said that the central control on MPs hire of staff, travel arrangements, etc., started with Rudd (which I didn’t remember), so it seems that Credlin/Abbott were just “improving” the model. Turnbull/Nutt have loosened the apron strings.

  37. Good Morning, Bludgers.

    I am happy we got a good turnout for the meet up, at such short notice.,
    Zoomster, Political Animal and PA’s Mum, Danny Lewis and Mum, JasonH, yours truly, and the rodeo rider from the Missouri, USA, in full Western gear including hat, who took our group photograph. (Yes, he did call me ‘ma’am’)

  41. Puffy

    Is zoomster still iin your neck of the woods? I was wondering if she had heard MKroger’s view that Sophiei likely to win back Indie. Grrrrr

  44. Vic, as to Kroger just remember Mandy Rice-Davies’s immortal words – “He would say that wouldn’t he?” Can’t imagine Kroger ever anticipating a Liberal defeat – after all, he just knows all Right-thinking people agree with him.

  45. 32 jenauthor – it’s particularly interesting the rwnj gloating considering the most recent poll was horrendous for Turnbull – 4% swing against him and no longer even ahead of Labor on 2PP despite being a 1st term government in their 2nd honeymoon.

  46. victoria@41

    Puffy

    Is zoomster still iin your neck of the woods? I was wondering if she had heard MKroger’s view that Sophiei likely to win back Indie. Grrrrr

    That is not my understanding of what he said.

    He said Mirabella’s chances were improved or wtte. That falls well short of your claim.

  49. 29

    There is a legislated maximum of 68 days between the dissolution and polling day. So definitely no DD on the 23th of July and possibly not on the 16th either.

    http://aec.gov.au/Elections/australian_electoral_system/Electoral_Procedures/Federal_Election_Timetable.htm

    Long campaigns are usually avoided in Australia, although Senate counting changes may create needs for a longer campaign, making a July 2nd election the most preferable option listed.

    It would be wise to avoid holding polling day in the 3 or so weeks before the 2nd of July (I say 2nd not 1st because I do not believe that a 1st of July can precede itself and it would be messy to find out that the interpretation was wrong) because of the lack of knowledge you mention (and I agree with) of whether polling day or the day of declaration of the poll is the day of election and in the 2-3 week range there is potential for the days of declaration of the polls to be on different sides of the 1st of July and thus for different States to have different Senate terms.

    Any DD between December/January and June has the potential for a WA style special election to cause the states` Senate terms to be out of whack.

    A DD called on the 11th of May would require an early budget or provisional supply bills (these caused some trouble for the Hawke Government in 1984, I believe). I think either of these options unlikely.

    As any election with writs issued before 25/2/2016 would require a summary redistribution in NSW to combine the contiguous pair of seats with the lowest enrolment, with the same procedure being required in WA with the highest enrolment pair of seats and then the subsequent seat being divided into 3 seats, I doubt that there will be an election before 25/2/2016.

    This rules out an election before 2/4/2016 and the later an election the closer to budget time, I thus predict that on the election writs writs are likely to be issued 25-28/2/2016 and the election to be on the 2nd or 9th of April.

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