Roy Morgan’s second poll of the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership is an even better result for the Coalition than the first, recording a one-point increase in the primary vote to 47%, with Labor down two to 27.5% and the Greens up one to 14%. On the headline two-party figure based on respondent-allocated preferences, the Coalition lead is up from 55-45 to 56-44. Based on preference flows from the 2013 election, it’s up from 53.5-46.5 to 55-45. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends by face-to-face and SMS from a sample of 3011.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Just as the leadership change appears to have cost Roy Morgan its long-established Labor bias, in the short-term it least, so it seems Essential Research has lost its trademark stability. That’s belied by headline figures for this week which show the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, from steady primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 35% for Labor, with the Greens and Palmer United both down a point to 10% and 1% respectively. However, the result of last week’s two-week fortnightly average included a 50-50 result from the previous week that is not included in this week’s result, so it follows that this week’s numbers failed to replicate those that caused last week’s sharp movement from 50-50 to 52-48.
Essential’s first monthly leadership ratings of Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership record his approval rating at 47% and disapproval at 17%, with a weighty 35% opting for don’t know. Bill Shorten enjoys an eight-point drop in his disapproval rating since a month ago to 42%, but his approval rating is up only a point to 30%. Turnbull leads 48-19 as preferred prime minister, which is down from 53-17 when the question was asked immediately after the leadership change.
Also featured are questions on which party is most trusted to handle various issues, which was also asked shortly before Tony Abbott was deposed. Only two results are significantly different: the Liberals’ lead over Labor for “political leadership” is up from 9% to 18%, while that for “treatment of asylum seekers” is down from 12% to 7%. The Greens are included as a response option here, which presumably has the effect of weakening the totals for Labor. Further findings have 42% saying private health insurance should be means tested compared with 44% who said everyone should receive a rebate; 56% rating it more important to expand public transport than to build roads and freeways, versus 33% for vice-versa; and 64% saying new roads and freeways should be built only if governments can pay for them without tolls, versus 24% who believe tolls should be charged as necessary.
131
Nicholas
You should stop whinging and go door-knocking in your nearest marginal Liberal-held federal electorate. Call the CFMEU, AWU, MUA, United Voice, ETU, SDA, AMWU, the Prison Officers, CEPU…any union is better than none. Volunteer. Do something useful. Speak to voters. Listen to them. Try to persuade them to change their vote…to put the Liberals last.
Bemused
You raise an interesting question: What about Queensland leaders? With great respect to Anna Palaschuk, it was more a question of getting rid of Newman.
It’s more prevalent at a Federal level. Plibersek continues to disappoint me, she has no fire in the belly, and, like Shorten, is too agreeable with the Government.
I cannot understand why Australians don’t like women leaders, particularly in the Federal arena.
The bar is set so much higher for them, thus they have to work twice as hard to meet the acceptance level of their male leaders.
[….and Abbott was treated well by the media and opposition, you think?]
I do. The media gave him a free ride such was their obsession with cuddling up to Rudd’s sabotage and picking on Gillard.
And Labor in opposition behaved nowhere near as appallingly as Abbott’s mob did.
Player One
We are already seeing it, would Tony invite union leaders to Canberra, would Tony reach out to Muslim leaders. The answer is no to both things.
All governments are different. Shorten wont be like Gillard or Rudd, just as Turnbull wont be like Abbott or Howard.
Agree that Penny Wong is overrated. Performed poorly as both climate change and finance minister. Trying to involve the GG over Dyson Heydon was another poor result. Wins have been few and far between for Penny.
Is good for the occasional appearance on Q&A and thats about it.
taylormade
Sorry but disagree, Penny Wong was one of the best performers in the previous ALP government.
taylormade
I agree.
[confessions
….….and Abbott was treated well by the media and opposition, you think?
I do.]
Ahhh…..theres the rub.
Climate change is a difficult policy for the ALP, it needs to look after the workers, if it does what the green left wants then it needs to betray the workers.
The ALP put forward serious policies for dealing with Climate Change.
HESTA and Unisuper (and another I missed) divesting investments in Transfield due to their involvement with the detention camps.
Happiness
The media wasn’t that hard on Tony Abbott, a half decent leader with his level of media support would hardly ever have seen a bad headline but Tony couldn’t help himself.
Poor policies = poor headlines
Nicholas @ 131. Read it and weep lemmings.
And yeah, Malcolm will kill Malcolm. Not showing any sign of it at the moment though.
I’d go door knocking for Tanya & Penny but not this idiot. Penalty rates for private schools. FFS!
mexican:
The govt is tinkering at the periphery, simply creating the perception that policies have changed. Turnbull can’t make changes to the Abbott agenda yet and so isn’t. This may be different should the govt be re-elected of course.
Funny, I remember this blog going electric with excitement at the stories criticising Abbott and saying “about time you cottoned on” to commenters being critical of him.
Now, all of a sudden, it was all rosy positive coverage and yet…..Quel surprise…..he was dumped and there was spontaneous applause in the QandA audience when they heard.
I wonder whether a little insight might help in this matter?
I’m not sure many hospitality workers do Sundays to afford private school fees but maybe some people do work overtime to afford it.
Shorten has come close a few times to jumping the shark, this is another although he has always managed to pull his head in and is generally doing pretty well for a first term opposition leader.
[Nicholas
….You support Labor out of habit and inertia. Supporting Labor is a part of your identity and you resist anything that challenges your identity. Don’t dress up your support for Bill Shorten as the steady nerves of an honest Tommy doing sterling work in the trenches. There isn’t anything high-minded in what you are doing. You are just lazy and scared.]
This post was roundly criticised.
Lets test it.
Who consider giving their preference to the LNP over the ALP?
Fessy
Yes but that would be expected, a lot of this government’s problems were caused not just due to some sloppy policies but a gaffe prone narrative which was too negative.
[Who consider giving their preference to the LNP over the ALP?]
Who would consider giving their preference to the LNP over the ALP?
[Funny, I remember this blog going electric with excitement at the stories criticising Abbott and saying “about time you cottoned on” to commenters being critical of him.]
Indeed. By that stage he’d been LOTO for 4 years and PM for 18mths – 2yrs.
I’ve heard the phrase ‘better late than never’, but in Abbott’s case the late was pretty frickin late.
[122
daretotread
… I think those that tout penny Wong as a future leader are just not living in the real world]
I don’t suppose she ever would be the title-holder. But she is nevertheless a leader in her own right. She holds things together…has great self-possession and focus….purpose. If she’s reserved in some ways, well, that’s not a bad thing either. Like I say, I admire these qualities. There is also no doubt she has shown personal moral courage. She has put herself forward again and again on behalf of the things she believes in. What is not to admire in this?
mexican:
The govt’s real problems began with a seriously outrageous breach of trust coupled with an arrogance that because they were a first term govt, all would be forgiven by voters.
Happiness, 168
[ Who would consider giving their preference to the LNP over the ALP? ]
Well most people here for a start
Briefly
I fully agree with you about Penny Wong’s great qualities, but I am not sure she would make a good leader – mind you parenthood inevitably implroves empathy and communication skills, so in 5 years ans her kiddy grows, Penny could be a good communicator.
I thought she did not h
Well, so far its you and me Airlines!
:devil:
Briefly
I fully agree with you about Penny Wong’s great qualities, but I am not sure she would make a good leader. However people change over time.
I thought she did not handle the Climate Change communication especially well and I recall one technical question she failed to answer that seem to mark the turning point for climate change popularity.
But I am not trying to dump on Penny – a great minister.
feeney
i dont think even annastacia palaszczuk expected to win, even if she beleived in herself and thought she was in with a chance. Whether or not she comes across as charismatic, she arguably needs time to grow into her role.
Campbell Newman simply acted with hubris and was lacking in policy thinking intellect. He was propped up by peter beattie and paul lucas to become lord mayor of brisbane to have a liberal ally. He was hopeless in politics fullstop.
malcolm turnbull put himself in a really bad corner. People expect the world from him, but he is not going to live up to their expectations. Not only that, but he came to power at a very bad time economically speaking with the economy staring down recession by next year and the impending housing market disaster.
Within a couple of months, people are going to realise why he was hated as opposition leader in 2009. He is an arrogant prick with a giant ego, albeit not as large as kevin rudd’s
Sorry Happiness – I wouldn’t vote Lib at the next election. Don’t worry though, you’ve got davidwh at least, that’s one person 😛
177
daretotread
My view is that politics is difficult and most likely to result in frustration, criticism and disappointment.
Considering this, if talented and serious people are willing to put themselves forward in support of values and beliefs that align with mine then I owe it to myself to help them any way I can.
I am, furthermore, completely sick of the culture of easy criticism. It is very easy to play at politics and lose. The consequences of losing are always high. At this juncture, the price of losing may be very high indeed. Therefore we have to win with what we have. We have to look to ourselves, to each other and we must fight to win.
Oh I actually misread and thought you had LNP and ALP the other way around, my bad^^
So there we have it.
Nicholas is insulted for saying most here put their brain in neutral and don’t think about anything, they just vote ALP.
When asked, not a single poster will admit to even considering voting LNP other than me.
Says it all really, doesn’t it?
Good night. Don’t forget to engage the gears before heading off to work tomorrow
(those of you that do that is…..if you are staying here Im not sure its needed).
Happiness: Who would consider giving their preference to the LNP over the ALP?
I’ve only preferenced the LNP ahead of the ALP once in my life, and that was the 2011 NSW state election (the Obeid stench was overwhelming). Its not something I’m likely to make a habit of, but bloody hell, Turnbull vs Shorten has me thinking about it, and I’m not the only one in my circle who is. Shorten is widely disliked, but pretty much everyone likes Tanya and Penny. Perhaps I have the wrong kind of friends and should hang out with ALP rusted-ons.
Briefly
I do not disagree. However there are some here actively pushing for Penny as ree barriers, LOTO. My gut feeling is that she has already got to overcome barriers due to gender, sexuality and ethnicity. These can be overcome but in addition I think she comes across as a person who does not tolerate fools easily and possibly someone who like things done her way. (Rudd like in fact). None of this would matter either if she had that magic factor able to engage voters and make them follow her. I do not think she has, mind you there are precious few others who do.
Rusted on Laborites
I am sorry to say that for at least one of my sons a Labor voter, he is considering voting Turnbull ahead of Shorten.
[181
Happiness
Nicholas is insulted for saying most here put their brain in neutral and don’t think about anything, they just vote ALP.]
For my own part, I vote Labor because of what I have learned in an eventful life.
[184
daretotread
I am sorry to say that for at least one of my sons a Labor voter, he is considering voting Turnbull ahead of Shorten.]
The appeal of the glib-celeb…how fickle will this prove to be?
The thing about being LOTO, much more than being PM, is that you have to have a strong sense of self and of destiny. I have no idea whether Penny Wong or Tanya Plibersek would make a good LOTO, or even better than the incumbent, because neither have been tested and neither have shown themselves keen to take on board the role at this time.
So much of what has been written on the board tonight is, sadly, utter crap. The simple fact is that Bill Shorten will lead Labor to the next election, unless something dramatic comes out of the RC (and not merely a discredited attack by Heydon) or something else cuts him down. Further, he appears to me to be the best candidate available to Labor ATM. The other candidates being promoted are simply being judged on not being Bill Shorten – and even then only on the basis of their current and past roles.
Finally, if Turnbull actually is able to successfully lead the Liberal Government back to the middle of the road and inspire public confidence in his leadership, then nobody will come close to beating him from Labor. And that won’t be the end of the world. At least we would no longer be led by a dangerous and potentially catastrophic PM, as we were until a few weeks ago. Which would have taken us closer to the end of the world.
But I think Shorten will give Turnbull a run for his money head to head. Shorten is capable of being quite precise and direct, but with feeling, as he was on Q and A the other night. In the same circumstances Turnbull can waffle and lose the listener. Should be an interesting time – and so much better than it was up to a few weeks ago.
Briefly
Do not reply in knee a jerk way. My son is definitely NOT influenced by the glib, but is mixing in decidedly conservative circles, so he is probably moving right in any case. However he was absolutely appalled by the behaviour of people during the RGR battles, especially the public denigration of Rudd by Crean et al. He strongly dislikes Shorten.
Turnbull appeals to the educated middle class. Like it or not, it is the case. Shorten does not appeal to this group. Nor did Abbott or Gillard.
TPOF
Like you I think it unlikely that Shorten will shift or that there will be any move to shift him. It would be a silly strategy.
However I do wonder a little at that 27.5% primary. If that sets in stone over the next few months, then ALP panic may set in and things might happen.
187
TPOF
Abbott was the worst PM we’ve ever experienced, but was also the most ineffectual. He accomplished exactly nothing more than making himself seem ridiculous and obnoxious at the same time.
I think Turnbott may well be a lot more dangerous. He is not inhibited by any of his predecessor’s promises. The signs are that he will take up the deconstruction of the labour market and the social framework.
“Disruption” can be both constructive and destructive. We have to see what kind of disruption he plans to invoke. The Liberals have been aching to radically redistribute political and economic power – to breach the egalitarian settlement – in favour of elite interests. Will he try it? Abbott was intent on it and failed. Will the newcomer also pursue this?
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34444799
Happyness hour is in.
[188
daretotread
Turnbull appeals to the educated middle class.]
Well, I’m sort of educated and possibly middle-class in cultural terms. But Turnbott doesn’t do it for me. Just the same, social affiliation is a key influence on the formation of political orientation. People usually want to affiliate “upwards”. Others (like me) want to affiliate “outwards” – in more than one direction.
As well, there are those who take strong readings of visual cues. Turnbott appeals to these readers. He looks cool. Then there are those (again, like me) who barely notice the visual at all, but are more attuned to aural or textual signs and who form opinions by absorbing the spoken and the written.
Turnbott has to be careful not to come across as an elitist. The very moment he does this, he’s finished. Australians will put up with just about anything, but they will not endure a snob.
[189
daretotread
However I do wonder a little at that 27.5% primary.]
Frankly, I don’t believe it. Were this accurate, almost twice as many voters will give their first preference to the Liberals as to Labor. I think it’s hugely unlikely.
FWIW, I don’t believe Morgan either. I think its methods are overreacting. I’ve hitherto blamed the SMS part but I agree with Leroy on Twitter who also suggests there’s a reason why the F2F part could be to blame. I think it’s both of them. F2F = respondent leans towards socially acceptable result. SMS = most motivated respondent most likely to take part in poll.
both parties have discredited themselves in past days – shorten putting up the whistle for privatised education, a day or so after morrison threatened to withdraw state funding unless more privatised education and health occurred. to hell with both leaders if this is the case. we need a new left in this country – and I dont mean one controlled by unions
briefly
Posted Tuesday, October 6, 2015 at 12:37 am | PERMALINK
187
TPOF
Abbott was the worst PM we’ve ever experienced, but was also the most ineffectual. He accomplished exactly nothing more than making himself seem ridiculous and obnoxious at the same time.
I think Turnbott may well be a lot more dangerous. He is not inhibited by any of his predecessor’s promises. The signs are that he will take up the deconstruction of the labour market and the social framework.
“Disruption” can be both constructive and destructive. We have to see what kind of disruption he plans to invoke. The Liberals have been aching to radically redistribute political and economic power – to breach the egalitarian settlement – in favour of elite interests. Will he try it? Abbott was intent on it and failed. Will the newcomer also pursue this?
—-brilliant to a tee. the newcomer is dangerous, just is aspirational politics – the money aint there for this sort of thing. its time australians woke up and learnt some realities about a lot of things — turnbull threatens a new republicanism …
Hear, hear TPOF. I 100% agree.
[However I do wonder a little at that 27.5% primary. If that sets in stone over the next few months, then ALP panic may set in and things might happen.]
Since when has Morgan been taken as gospel?
Those who believe Shorten can be crow-barred out fail to understand the new leadership paradigm.
The rules would have to be changed first, Leadershit engaged for yet another time, and this is not going to happen unless Shorten is caught with his dick in the mouth of an attractive pig, as photographed by Dyson Heydon personally.
And we know that Heydon doesn’t DO technology.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/bruce-petty-20090907-fdvy.html Bruce Petty cartoon seems to be only one up today