Roy Morgan’s second poll of the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership is an even better result for the Coalition than the first, recording a one-point increase in the primary vote to 47%, with Labor down two to 27.5% and the Greens up one to 14%. On the headline two-party figure based on respondent-allocated preferences, the Coalition lead is up from 55-45 to 56-44. Based on preference flows from the 2013 election, it’s up from 53.5-46.5 to 55-45. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends by face-to-face and SMS from a sample of 3011.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Just as the leadership change appears to have cost Roy Morgan its long-established Labor bias, in the short-term it least, so it seems Essential Research has lost its trademark stability. That’s belied by headline figures for this week which show the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, from steady primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 35% for Labor, with the Greens and Palmer United both down a point to 10% and 1% respectively. However, the result of last week’s two-week fortnightly average included a 50-50 result from the previous week that is not included in this week’s result, so it follows that this week’s numbers failed to replicate those that caused last week’s sharp movement from 50-50 to 52-48.
Essential’s first monthly leadership ratings of Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership record his approval rating at 47% and disapproval at 17%, with a weighty 35% opting for don’t know. Bill Shorten enjoys an eight-point drop in his disapproval rating since a month ago to 42%, but his approval rating is up only a point to 30%. Turnbull leads 48-19 as preferred prime minister, which is down from 53-17 when the question was asked immediately after the leadership change.
Also featured are questions on which party is most trusted to handle various issues, which was also asked shortly before Tony Abbott was deposed. Only two results are significantly different: the Liberals’ lead over Labor for “political leadership” is up from 9% to 18%, while that for “treatment of asylum seekers” is down from 12% to 7%. The Greens are included as a response option here, which presumably has the effect of weakening the totals for Labor. Further findings have 42% saying private health insurance should be means tested compared with 44% who said everyone should receive a rebate; 56% rating it more important to expand public transport than to build roads and freeways, versus 33% for vice-versa; and 64% saying new roads and freeways should be built only if governments can pay for them without tolls, versus 24% who believe tolls should be charged as necessary.
L G H@59
You are delusional if you think that the Liberals will be satisfied with knocking over double time and will stop their assault on the working conditions of the ordinary worker.
In no time at all the attack will start on time and a half, and the same arguements will be advanced against time and one half as are currently being used against double time.
Case in point: employer groups and the Right of politics opposed every single proposed rate increase when wage fixation occured under the AIRC, and have opposed every single one under the FWA system. EVERY. SINGLE. ONE.
I don’t think it’d be just her sexuality, I think her ethnicity and her gender will also be a part of it
(w/r/t Penny Wong)
Airlines
I agree.
Australians will never accept a female leader for some time, particularly the ilk of Wong. She would be attacked and tarred politically. I think Wong knows that, too.
I regret to say that Australians, generally, are homophobic, rascist, and distrustful of anyone with a different cultural background.
Grimace
In my 40 odd years in the workforce and as a voter i have never seen A coalition government, federal or state, that did not have attacking workers’ wages and conditions as a plank in its platform.
Some tried to hide it before elections but once they occupied the government benches it was out there for all to see.
They hate workers. It’s in their DNA
Glassdoor have undertaken a study of the relationship between employee satisfaction and employers’ stock market performance. As you may be aware “professional” portfolio managers find it very difficult to make portfolio choices that outperform the index over the medium or long term.
However, the Glassdoor report, summarised at:
http://www.glassdoor.com/blog/company-culture-pay/
and with a link to the full report within that suggests that employee satisfaction is a strong predictor of long-term company performance, and this applies at both extremes.
Now of course as source of employee satisfaction data Glassdoor would say that wouldn’t they, and more importantly the study is not quite as rigorous as one would like, but nevertheless it should give pause for thought.
And it’s not really news: Robert Bosch said (it must have been more than 100 years ago now): “I don’t pay good wages because I have a lot of money; I have a lot of money because I pay good wages.”
An election called (called not just held) before 25/2/2016 would cause a rather clunky procedure to turn the two adjoining seats with the smallest population in NSW into a single seat because NSW lost a seat at the last seat determination.
http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2014/nsw/timetable.htm
If it was before 19/1/2016, the even clunkier procedure for amalgamating the 2 adjoining seats in WA with the largest population and then dividing them into 3 seats would be triggered.
http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2014/nsw/timetable.htm
I don’t expect Turnbull will care about redistributions if it looks like 100+ seats going early
104
feeney
Not me. I admire Penny Wong. She is, as they say, all class. She’s obviously very smart, disciplined, articulate, principled and, to be sure, courageous.
If she had a seat in the Reps she’d be miles in front.
[Rex Douglas
Posted Monday, October 5, 2015 at 2:49 pm | PERMALINK
Richard Willingham @rwillingham 1m1 minute ago
. @matthewguyMp ‘s Coalition plan to dump grand final public holiday #springst]
He’ll have to wait at least another seven years to do it. There’s very little chance the coalition will win in 2018.
Is nobody watching Qanda tonight? Apparently a former colleague of mine Pat Dudgeon is on the panel.
Someone said the “Shorten haters” are out in force here at the moment.
As I read the the above there are about four posters who range from resident critics of Shorten, and have been for some time (two thereof), a Liberal lover who is a Malcolm fan but did not like Abbott and one whose zany, contradictory opinions are largely ignored by most, most of the time.
I suspect another very large group here recognise that Shorten is competent and he is being what he is, a leader of Labor in opposition.
The big prediction that he would not lead Labor into the next election has yet to be tested – and proved wrong possibly.
Such was the hubris of the LNP supporters they thought Abbott would lead his party to the next election and the next and…….for ever.
Wrong again.
QandA is brilliant tonight.
Mental health topic.
http://video.news.com.au/v/382352/Xavier-Eales-discusses-his-depression-in-front-of-his-school
Check out this student (the first questioner on QandA). Very impressive young man.
@ confessions, 111
She is. A really great episode tonight
[Happiness
Posted Monday, October 5, 2015 at 9:49 pm | PERMALINK
I don’t expect Turnbull will care about redistributions if it looks like 100+ seats going early]
If the Australian people hand 100 seats to the Liberals at the next election they will deserve everything they get – and it won’t be pretty.
That said I do not believe the Labor pv vote is anywhere near as low as 27.5% or the Liberal pv as high as 47%. We need a few more polls from other more reliable pollsters than Morgan.
Happiness
A UK look but probably same as here.
[
Before working in psychiatry, I didn’t think mental health problems were real
If I, a medical student, had this distorted view of mental illness, there isn’t much hope for society……….]
My distorted view of mental illness begs the question: if medical students can carry with them such misconceptions, what hope is there for society at large? ]
http://www.theguardian.com/healthcare-network/views-from-the-nhs-frontline/2015/oct/05/before-working-psychiatry-didnt-think-mental-health-problems-real
[Someone said the “Shorten haters” are out in force here at the moment.]
I don’t hate Shorten, I just wish he had desirable qualities to match his unbridled ambition.
He’s mediocre, at best, and he has very little hope of ever beating Turnbull.
Yes, I am a firm believer that the attitudes of the medical profession needs more investigation.
We assume that healthcare professionals have the expected view on Aboriginal healthcare for example (i.e. that it is a big problem and needs specific attention). However, I suspect there is a significant proportion of medical students that think Indigenous health is a waste of time and we should be teaching them about exotic new drugs….
feeney@104
But Queenslanders will???? 😮
I actually don’t think replacing Shorten would win the ALP the next election, but they are certainly going to get thrashed putting Shorten up against Turnbull.
The only benefit of Shorten staying for the ALP is that it gives them time to prepare a successor to take over as LOTO. In a few years, as the economy wanes, a good LOTO could have a reasonable chance.
Bruefly I think those that tout penny Wong as a future leader are just not living in the real world
Penny is great, intelligent, strong minded, articulate etc. However I am not sure she is an especially good communicator. Also I would not call her especially empathetic. Both these qualities are needed to take the ALP forward.
briefly@109
You make the mistake of picking someone you would like (I do too) rather than someone voters would warm to.
Saying Australians wouldn’t vote for a female leader is just ridiculous. It stems from an inability to acknowledge the deficiencies of Gillard which had nothing to do with her gender.
Feeney
I think the population could handle another female leader, but it needs to be the right one.
The obvious Labor choice for female leader is Tanya Plibersek. Other than Dreyfus she has no competitition, male or female.
Jake
[ He’s mediocre, at best, and he has very little hope of ever beating Turnbull. ]
The thing is … it is Turnbull will beat Turnbull. As he has every time he has been put to the test in the past.
… who will beat Turnbull …
But Queenslanders will???? 😮
Is Queensland part of Australia?
… who will beat Turnbull …
Turnbull
Happiness@124
For once I agree with you.
It just amazes me how many delusion fools cling to the myth of Gillard.
Tricot
Am I the zany one?
You are in turd-polishing mode. Bill Shorten is a poor communicator who lacks commitment to progressive policy. It isn’t just this gauche framing of penalty rates as necessary because of private school fees. He has no plan for full employment. He aids and abets conservative measures to expand the national security state and curtail privacy and transparent government. He supports dumb wars. He defends practices that violate the human rights of asylum seekers, and that force staff at detention centres to refrain from reporting the abuses they witness. He is deeply flawed in both presentation and substance.
He is unlikely to win the next election, and if he did have the good fortune to win it would be without a mandate for a progressive agenda.
You support Labor out of habit and inertia. Supporting Labor is a part of your identity and you resist anything that challenges your identity. Don’t dress up your support for Bill Shorten as the steady nerves of an honest Tommy doing sterling work in the trenches. There isn’t anything high-minded in what you are doing. You are just lazy and scared.
AA
Exactly!
bemused
[ For once I agree with you. ]
The obvious conclusion here is that you both must be wrong.
So we are 55 years behind Sri Lanka (which elected a female PM in 1960)?
And 49 years behind India (which elected a female PM in 1966)?
And 46 years behind Israel (which elected a female PM in 1969)?
And 36 years behind England (which elected a female PM in 1979)?
….or could it be just the simple matter of Gillard being a dud?
Nicholas. You are a self righteous wanker.
The Liberals should be happy but how much of it is the Liberal base returning, having been turned off by Tony and how much of this is polite endorsement for a better leader with a better front bench than previously.
Its policy positions have improved and the polls have followed suit.
Yeah, Shorten isn’t the greatest, but he’s got one PM under his belt already folks. Plenty of LOTOs dont score those. Many here underrate him, but if he was really that shite, Abbott would still be the PM.
I agree with those above – the ALP will be highly competitive with a new LOTO like Burke in 2019
But in the meantime – dont forget Talcum has come unstuck before, all on his own. Fact: he doesnt have the best political judgement. He has a lawyers nose for gotchas and grand speeches. There’s a certain strategic cunning he lacks that say Howard had in spades. He overrates himself too. Watch this space.
[ I regret to say that Australians, generally, are homophobic, rascist, and distrustful of anyone with a different cultural background.
But Queenslanders will???? 😮 ]
Yes, twice. But both were white and hetero. Wong offers additional challenges to a wider range of voters. Pity but sometimes the best are unelectable and the elected are far from best.
Gillard was treated appallingly by the media and by the opposition. You only have to read the shit that gets posted here about women in general to know that Australia isn’t mature enough for a woman PM.
roger bottomley
[ Nicholas. You are a self righteous wanker. ]
Couldn’t have put it better myself. There seems to be a few of them about tonight. Is it a full moon or something?
The Australian wage debate has an ironic element, if we had a bigger population such as the U.S then our wage system would actually be pretty fair.
The problem isn’t so much the wages, its all the other costs of running a business, including the cost of employing.
MB
[ Its policy positions have improved and the polls have followed suit. ]
It’s policy positions haven’t changed. Nor will they.
What part am I missing here: if you can’t afford to open on a weekend, then don’t.
lefty e
[ What part am I missing here: if you can’t afford to open on a weekend, then don’t. ]
Agreed. If penalty rates are really making the difference, your margins are too thin for you to justify being open.
[Couldn’t have put it better myself.]
Nicholas is simply a more erudite version of TBA: trolls for a reaction. You give it to them, you give them oxygen. Best solution is to simply scroll by.
Player One
I will give you an example, lets take the Sydney police shooting, if Tony was PM, this would have been seen as a major event with Tony, Keenan, Dutton and maybe Brandis coming out with major statements.
Instead Turnbull has a made a few statements but no bug grandstanding.
Changing leader will see changes in policy, just as Gillard resulted in changes from the polices set out by Rudd.
[confessions
…Gillard was treated appallingly by the media and by the opposition.]
….and Abbott was treated well by the media and opposition, you think?
Or do you think Gillard needed special treatment of some sort?
The right doesn’t hate workers, if the left is too ever belt the right, it first needs to come to grips with what the right is about.
It wants business and investors to make a profit for their investment, this is something Keating understood.
MB
[ Changing leader will see changes in policy … ]
Yeah, yeah. Wake me when it happens.
Mod Lib
[ … and Abbott was treated well by the media … ]
He certainly was until he came unstuck. Then (surprise, surprise!) they suddenly all appeared to realize at the same time what a moron he was.