Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

Early post-coup trepidation is making way for a fully flowering Malcolm Turnbull honeymoon, if the latest result from Roy Morgan is anything to go by.

Roy Morgan’s second poll of the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership is an even better result for the Coalition than the first, recording a one-point increase in the primary vote to 47%, with Labor down two to 27.5% and the Greens up one to 14%. On the headline two-party figure based on respondent-allocated preferences, the Coalition lead is up from 55-45 to 56-44. Based on preference flows from the 2013 election, it’s up from 53.5-46.5 to 55-45. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends by face-to-face and SMS from a sample of 3011.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Just as the leadership change appears to have cost Roy Morgan its long-established Labor bias, in the short-term it least, so it seems Essential Research has lost its trademark stability. That’s belied by headline figures for this week which show the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, from steady primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 35% for Labor, with the Greens and Palmer United both down a point to 10% and 1% respectively. However, the result of last week’s two-week fortnightly average included a 50-50 result from the previous week that is not included in this week’s result, so it follows that this week’s numbers failed to replicate those that caused last week’s sharp movement from 50-50 to 52-48.

Essential’s first monthly leadership ratings of Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership record his approval rating at 47% and disapproval at 17%, with a weighty 35% opting for don’t know. Bill Shorten enjoys an eight-point drop in his disapproval rating since a month ago to 42%, but his approval rating is up only a point to 30%. Turnbull leads 48-19 as preferred prime minister, which is down from 53-17 when the question was asked immediately after the leadership change.

Also featured are questions on which party is most trusted to handle various issues, which was also asked shortly before Tony Abbott was deposed. Only two results are significantly different: the Liberals’ lead over Labor for “political leadership” is up from 9% to 18%, while that for “treatment of asylum seekers” is down from 12% to 7%. The Greens are included as a response option here, which presumably has the effect of weakening the totals for Labor. Further findings have 42% saying private health insurance should be means tested compared with 44% who said everyone should receive a rebate; 56% rating it more important to expand public transport than to build roads and freeways, versus 33% for vice-versa; and 64% saying new roads and freeways should be built only if governments can pay for them without tolls, versus 24% who believe tolls should be charged as necessary.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,191 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Oh, and don’t forget that, voters supporting Malcolm Turnbull have very high expectations. They’ve had enough s… from this government. He doesn’t perform, they will turn on him like a rattlesnake.

  2. 1147

    That was not at all clear from you comment.

    The Greens support reform and I think would be willing to vote for reform even without the ALP.

    Senator Xenophon supports reform (this also helps provide a sense of multi-partisanship, increasing the ability of the Greens to vote for reform without the ALP).

    The ALP is yet to decide. They were supportive earlier in the term but various figures like Senator Dastyari have come out against it. They say that it would entrench a Coalition majority, however the theory I read about this (on Pollbludger somewhere if I remember correctly) says that the ALP power brokers like the current system because backroom negotiation is their forte and thus the current system appeals to them.

  3. @ davidwh

    Now you know PB is very nonjudgemental when it comes to not voting Labor! (Though I actually seriously want to know who you voted for)

  4. [Now you know PB is very nonjudgemental when it comes to not voting Labor!]

    Ive noticed that :devil:

    One has to remember that the self same posters would have been arguing in exactly the same way for one “Prime Minister Latham”…….telling us all we were mad if we didn’t support him!

    LOL 🙂

  5. Airlines I can take whatever PB can throw at me and take a break when it’s no longer enjoyable.

    Basically I voted KAP/Labor/Wyatt and the rest. It was a moment of madness brought on by desperation.

  6. Tom the first and best

    The most annoying thing about this Senate reform is, for the reform to be enacted, it has to gain the approval of the very institution it seeks to reform.

    It’s like if the Royal Commission into Child Abuse had to get the approval of various Schools, Churches and Sporting Groups before it could actually prosecute people. Or if the NSW ICAC could only investigate corrupt property developers/political donations until it got a permission slip from Eddie Obeid.


  7. David

    I think that KAP was not a bad choice for someone like you. Katter is actually a decent if odd guy. I agree with 75% of his ideas, but the other 255 is odd. he is not a sleezy like Palmer.

  8. Happiness #1156
    [One has to remember that the self same posters would have been arguing in exactly the same way for one “Prime Minister Latham”…….telling us all we were mad if we didn’t support him!]

    Poll Bludger didn’t exist until January 2004, and I doubt that the posters now were poster back then. So I don’t why you would remember such a thing.

    And I think you’ve made this claim before.

  9. Millennial:

    Which of the ALP supporting posters (i.e. 99% of this place!) do you think would have been saying “My God, Latham is a nutjob, I am voting Liberal”?

  10. 1161

    So you thing that Katter has 1020 ideas? That is an interesting count.

    Katter is rather socially conservative, especially on issues like marriage equality. He is also pro-gun and not the most environmentalist person.

    On most other issues he is quite reasonable. For example, he supports trade unions and the Parliament being able to block ratification of treaties.

  11. Happiness@1164


    Which of the ALP supporting posters (i.e. 99% of this place!) do you think would have been saying “My God, Latham is a nutjob, I am voting Liberal”?

    Never a problem as I was not in Latham’s electorate.
    I quite happily voted for my local ALP candidate.
    I was aghast when Latham was elected leader.

  12. Tom 1154, sorry meant it as a fresh question not something you were meant to infer from previous.

    Hm – so it is passable with Greens and X right now, have seen some stuff from Antony Green around options but have the Coaltion settled on anything yet to your knowledge?

  13. Happiness #1164
    Not many, but I imagine quite a few would have said;

    “My God, Latham is a nutjob, I am voting Democrats!”
    “My God, Latham is a nutjob, I am voting Greens!”
    “My God, Latham is a nutjob, I am voting Independent!”

    or maybe…
    “My God, Latham is a nutjob, I am voting Socialist Alliance!”

  14. So apparently Immigration has been hiding supposed deportees in 4.5 star hotel along with 3 other officers using tax payers money while the now Treasurer (former Immigration Minister) is attacking the very fabric of Australia cuts to health and education while spending big dollars to support Border Farce and support big end of town.

  15. 1170

    Senator Xenophon is not needed but is just helpful from a multi-partisanship angle.

    The NSW system, without the expansion of the minimum number of candidate in a group, is likeliest. Senator Xenophon may be able to persuade his colleagues that the ballot paper should advise numbering more than one box above the line though.

  16. [ISDS is a mechanism for corporations to sue governments.

    Pharmaceutical giant Ely Lilly is suing the government of Egypt for lifting the minimum wage. Canada is being sued for a ban on fracking and Germany for its phasing out of nuclear power; all actions taken under ISDS clauses in free trade pacts. ]

    Being sued for lifting the minimum wage in a poor country?

    If this isn’t a clear warning about the dangerous overreach of corporatism, I don’t know what is.


    [The slowdown across global economies is exacerbating a coal glut that’s driven prices for the fuel to the lowest level in eight years, according to Glencore Plc.

    The market continues to re-balance amid weaker than forecast demand, said Peter Freyberg, Glencore’s head of coal, according to the e-mailed text of his speech delivered in Newcastle, Australia. The mining company, which in February announced it would cut Australian output by 15 million metric tons this year and delay some projects, will continue to review its operations to find ways of saving money, Freyberg said.]

    …so Glencore’s production cuts will reduce national output by 7%…quite a step…

  18. Mike Hilliard

    [davidwh – I’ve never and will never vote informal.

    Neither would I.]

    I voted informal in the 1989 WA State election when WA Inc was rearing its ugly head.

    It seemed to me that the ALP really needed a spell in opposition but I couldn’t contemplate voting for the Libs.

  19. Latham was/is out there but his party’s policies were light years ahead of the lying rodent’s and even further ahead of this current mob’s policies…so unless they change their policies I would vote for Latham ahead of Malware

    Ps Malware was a failure as opposition, a failure as a Communications Minister so its hilarious reading about how he is the second coming now that he is PM

  20. teve777
    Posted Wednesday, October 7, 2015 at 11:34 pm | PERMALINK
    Latham would have been a better PM than Abbott.

    —— well steve and alias – yes latham was better than abbott and that’s saying something – less of a physical bully too – remember all trouble he got into to with one handshake, but abbott is turbo bully

  21. Alias
    The party structure of the Westminster system SHOULD allow even nutters to lead provided the party support is loyal, courageous influential over policy and not nutters. However if the nut jobs get loose and actually try to run the joint, chaos sets in.

  22. [Which of the ALP supporting posters (i.e. 99% of this place!) do you think would have been saying “My God, Latham is a nutjob, I am voting Liberal”?]

    I’d already moved to the greens when latham came along – had voted greens from 1998, and joined the party in 2002 after Tampa and Beasley’s piss-weakedness. I thought latham was a nutter but labor still got my preferences before the libs – Lindsey tanner was my MP and Howard was bad news for this country – as is finally being recognised. I like that turnbull seems to be taking us back to 1996 – but we have lost 20 years and a boom thanks to Howard and Abbott.

    similarly, my labor MP will get my preferences ahead of the libs at the election. my local member is great, and even though I’m Ok with turnbull as leader of the libs, the people behind him terrify me. if the libs split and lose the right wing crazies, I might consider directing preferences to a turnbull-led ‘liberal democrats’ party, but can’t see myself trusting them over the ALP. the liberal philosophy of ‘everyone for themselves if it is legal’ doesn’t appeal.

  23. A lot of the croticism of mark latham may be a bit harsh. Latham was honestly far too young and far too ambitious when he took on the leadership of the labor party. He was a smart guy, just bit the bullet and took the greatest risk of all time far too early in his political career. Labor could not have won with anyone at the helm in 2004, howard was taking the credit for keatings economic reforms and conservatism reached its peak at that time.

    Howard-era nostalgia reached its height in 2011, although it has somewhat subsided since.

  24. When I say conservatism, I actually rather mean the whole “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it mentality” – I.e reactionism in the disguise of conservatism.

  25. Hello again. Joe “the Recessionator” Hockey may be gone like a bad financial planner after the bankruptcy, but his legacy lingers on.

    This is the real danger for Turnbull, the Liberals (and Australia): Abbott may be gone but is it too late to avoid the downturn his Coalition of the Crazed were leading us so doggedly towards? Voters definitely won’t be pleased if a recession occurs.

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