BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition

The only new poll this week was a strong result for the Coalition, resulting in a minor shift in their favour on what currently passes for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is in a state of flux at the moment, as I’m treating the Liberal leadership change as the starting point for a new series, but don’t yet have enough data points to generate a meaningful trend result. As such, the results shown on the sidebar are simply a weighted average of the six available Turnbull-era poll results, with the one poll result this week (from Essential Research, which was a bad one for Labor) having no more bearing on the total than last week’s. It’s still been enough to knock the Coalition’s two-party reading up 0.4%, and to credit them with gains on the seat projection from New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. I’ve also neglected to update the graphs since last week, and there wasn’t anything new this week in the way of leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,171 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition”

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  1. briefly@2145


    If Shorten said that then he has lost the plot.

    Not at all. 50% of high school kids are enrolled in fee-paying schools operated outside the State sector. Labor has to make it clear that protection of incomes for the least-well-paid is an issue for all working people…this is not an issue that should divide people, but should unify them.

    In the interests of social cohesion, Labor should be aiming to gradually reduce the private education system.

  2. Yikes! Morgan goes the full monty on Saint Malcom Turnbull

    [In early October, in the second Morgan Poll since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, L-NP support rose to 56% (up 1%) cf. ALP 44% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis following the swearing in of the Turnbull Government’s new Ministry. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.
    Primary support for the L-NP rose 1% to 47% (the highest L-NP support since the 2013 Federal Election at which the L-NP gained 45.5% support) while ALP support fell 2% to 27.5% (the lowest ALP primary support for more than three years since May 2012).

    Support for the Greens rose to 14% (up 1%), Palmer United Party is 1.5% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others are at 8.5% (unchanged).

    This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, September 26/27 & October 1-5, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,011 Australian electors.]

  3. Sprocket@2155:

    Whatever happened to the Labor bias of Morgan?

    – If it is actually still there, there is a shed load of trouble ahead for Labor!

  4. don@2156


    Whatever happened to the Labor bias of Morgan?

    – If it is actually still there, there is a shed load of trouble ahead for Labor!

    People are in shock at having a Prime Minister after not having one for the last 2 years. Abbott was merely the leader of a political gang.

    The gloss will wear off and things will get back to more normal figures.

  5. [lizzie
    Posted Monday, October 5, 2015 at 5:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Tony Wright pushes the criticism along… ]

    I think Wright is correct in his assessment of what Shorten is doing at this moment (and as mentioned by Victoria). He is planting a message in the minds of aspirationals (aka Howard’s battlers) that those private schools which supposedly give their children a better start in life cost the parents money. It is not only teenagers and students who benefit from penalty rates but also many aspirational parents who have low paying jobs and depend on penalty rates to supplement their income.

    If these “Howard’s battlers” feel that they are under attack from the government they currently support, they are in a frame of mind to redirect their votes at election time.

  6. The hapless Bill Shorten continues to put a Liberal frame on issues that should favour Labor. His flawed defence if penalty rates underlines the weakness of the man’s instincts and beliefs. The purpose of penalty rates is to compensate workers for working unsociable hours. What the worker does with their income is up to them and is irrelevant to the social utility of penalty rates.

  7. Article below is about the UK tories – but its just as applicable here – the same agenda the same targets even if some here think Saint Malcolm is going to change it all…..or even change much of it –

    [ Welcome to Toryland, a heartless place with no room for kindness

    So off to the Tory Party conference. And this year their leaders may be more supercilious, sneering, smug and swaggering than usual: success always brings out the worst in right-wing politicians.

    I walk among them, smile often, speak properly, argue nicely, yet feel like an alien.

    I admire some individual Tories – a couple are good mates – but contemporary Conservatism is cold, base and dangerous.

    The party is loaded, most of the press is on side and the BBC has been subdued.Slick presentation, propaganda and incessant spin make their own realities.

    … much speechifying about how the nation, the NHS, the young and old, Army and economy are safer under this party. Bosoms and chests will heave, faces will flush with pride.

    ….But look at what lies beneath and you will find double dealing, iniquity, and the planned demolition of institutions.

    ….Meanwhile, George Osborne rejected the tobacco levy because he did not want to upset the tobacco companies.

    …..“Any levy would complicate the tax system.

    ….And the state of our law courts? Defence in the criminal justice system is now a rich person’s privilege.

    ….asylum-seekers and refugees, let’s look into the places these people are incarcerated….Serco and G4S have become custodians of vulnerable men, women and children.

    …“The rooms were home to rats and cockroaches. Pregnant women were placed in poor housing with steep stairs. Food poisoning was common. Some private contractors did not pay council fees, and tenants’ heating and electricity had been disconnected.”

    ….And for “the ordinary people” among us, the living wage promise by the PM is as credible as his commitment to help refugees.

    ….The dispossessed and low paid have no place in Toryland. Poverty is fecklessness. Those who commit suicide after losing benefits are worthless. Free lunches for schoolchildren were Clegg’s soppy idea which must be taken off the table.
    Conservatives prepare to get tougher still on teenage single mothers in crackdown on benefits

    And the last indictment is possibly the worst. Sir Simon McDonald, the most senior Foreign Office official has admitted that “the prosperity agenda” is now the priority, and that human rights matter a good deal less than in the past.

    the Saudis become ever closer allies, and China our dearest trading partner.

    We have become one of the most unethical nations in the West. And cheery Dave still insists on proclaiming to the world that Britain is great and uniquely honourable.

    …Cameron has led the Tories further to the right than Thatcher did. The UK now is a big business, avarice its fundamentalist religion.

    …..I fear the British values of fairness, justice and humanitarianism will not fare so well under this authoritarian, unaccountable government, and its slippery leader. ]

  8. The Shorten quote was chopped up badly. He was talking about quality of life, with private schooling as one example (probably a bad example).

    For people on $40,000 and $50,000 and $60,000 dollars a year, penalty rates are the difference as to whether or not they can afford to send their kids to a private school, whether or not they can afford to sustain the mortgage – they go towards the quality of life. Why is it that Mr Turnbull’s Liberals only worry about the top end of town and forget millions of other Australians? Penalty rates are what make the difference in the quality of life for a lot of working Australians. Nurses, firies, ambulance officers, people who work in retail and leisure. In the retail industry and in the hospitality industry – they are on average, along with agriculture, the lowest paid industries in Australia. If you were to take away penalty rates from these groups, you would even depress their wages further. We have the lowest real wages growth in Australia in 20 years. Mr Turnbull’s Liberals are talking about a GST which increases the price on everything.

  9. BEMUSED – I used prefer NRL, but it is pretty parochial as well. In any event, one can no longer be a fan of a football team. One is just a consumer saturated with betting ads. And don’t get me started on the pokies that prop up these competitions. Damn them all. I make sure I don’t give them a penny. It’s like arguing over pepsi and cola.

  10. 2153
    shea mcduff

    High schools?

    I don’t believe for one second that more than a million students go to elite fee paying schools.

  11. [Rex Douglas
    Posted Monday, October 5, 2015 at 2:49 pm | PERMALINK
    Richard Willingham ‏@rwillingham 1m1 minute ago
    . @matthewguyMp ‘s Coalition plan to dump grand final public holiday #springst

    He’ll have to wait at least another seven years to do it. There’s very little chance the coalition will win in 2018.

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