BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition

The only new poll this week was a strong result for the Coalition, resulting in a minor shift in their favour on what currently passes for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is in a state of flux at the moment, as I’m treating the Liberal leadership change as the starting point for a new series, but don’t yet have enough data points to generate a meaningful trend result. As such, the results shown on the sidebar are simply a weighted average of the six available Turnbull-era poll results, with the one poll result this week (from Essential Research, which was a bad one for Labor) having no more bearing on the total than last week’s. It’s still been enough to knock the Coalition’s two-party reading up 0.4%, and to credit them with gains on the seat projection from New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. I’ve also neglected to update the graphs since last week, and there wasn’t anything new this week in the way of leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,171 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    More from Adele Ferguson on the 7-Eleven scandal.
    The issue of bullying by surgeons is gathering steam. At last people are saying “enough is enough!”
    West Coast Eagles player Daniel Chick spills the bean on the drug culture rampant during the team’s 2006 premiership year.
    Here’s a dire warning about the new wave of illicit drugs hitting our shores.
    Nick X has had enough of publicly funded and blatantly political advertising .
    As pressure mounts on Turnbull to come up with some “doable” policies Kate Carnell comes out with this doozy! “If we can’t get more women, young and older people into the workforce, we can’t get productivity up.” Productivity is doing more with less, but she thinks it’s all about unit hourly labour rate. Pathetic!
    Yet another example of the psychological damage and effects of religion on the poor and ignorant.
    The Senate often does very good work.
    Here is some good data on the apparently widespread gaming of the emissions testing on diesels. There are some very excessive differences between standard testing and real life drive cycle testing on a number of models. I am pleased to see that the Mazda 6 diesel I recently bought is right on the bottom of the list.
    More of the same as we continue without a Sex Discrimination Commissioner.

  2. Section 2 . . .

    Alan Austin – Abbott is gone but the lies carry on.,8210
    Stephen Koukoulas previews the next big issue for discussion – just how big should government be.
    Reclaim Australia goes commercial and releases a bizarre range of products.
    Bob Ellis says Julie Bishop is a laughing stock.
    The Auditor-General’s evaluations have been thwarted by extensive use of secrecy provisions. Surely not by this open and transparent government!
    Abbott. Bolt and the stages of grief.
    At the 2015 Hamer Oration Julian Burnside asks just what sort of nation are we?,8212
    This article from a Professor of Health is well worth reading.–press-the-reset-button-20150930-gjxxrn.html
    “View from the Street” has a good crack at Eric Abetz and others.

  3. Excerpts

    I agree that the Yahoo has been sabotaging negotiations.

    [The Palestinians have raised their flag at the United Nations for the first time following president Mahmoud Abbas’ General Assembly speech attacking Israel’s continued occupation.

    UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon and Mr Abbas presided over the packed ceremony in the rose garden.

    “In this historical moment, I say to my people everywhere: raise the flag of Palestinians very high because it is the symbol of our identity,” Mr Abbas told the crowd.

    Israel and the United States have dismissed the move as a symbolic gesture that would not serve the cause of peace.

    But Mr Ban said symbols were “important” and could lead to action.]

    [“You are all aware that Israel undermined the efforts made by the administration of president Barack Obama in past years, most recently the efforts of secretary of state John Kerry aimed at reaching a peace agreement through negotiations,” Mr Abbas told the 193-nation General Assembly.]

  4. First motor mouth Morrison and next up Turnbull on RN spruicking todays big economic reform talkfest, no doubt hoping to grab tonights new headlines.

    Right on cue, we hear that Tony Abbott is going on Neil Mitchell on 3AW at 10 a.m.

  5. Mexican

    I have a problem with the claim that a public sector deficit equals private sector surplus,

    Then you have a problem with reality. Given the size of Australia’s external deficit, it is axiomatic that a government sector deficit implies a domestic non-government sector surplus.

  6. This is international politics but a significant story – it is the 50th anniversary of the 1965 anti-communist massacres ordered by Suharto in Indonesia. 500,000 died, with no credible explanation of most of the deaths, even 50 years later. The muslim group that Widodo is linked to was a prime instigator of the village level killings.

  7. From Shanners in the GG. Are the Abbott fans resigning or not?

    [One of the most senior casualties of the leadership change, former Senate leader and employment minister Eric Abetz, who backed Mr Abbott and was dumped to the backbench, said it was “disappointing to hear of a spate of resignations”. Senator Abetz has identified that a core of Liberal Party members feel “disenfranchised” and are concerned their views will no longer be heard.

    State and federal Liberal MPs are calling branch members trying to convince them to withdraw resignations or renew their membership.

    Liberal MPs said last night there had been “a few hundred resignations” in the Victorian branch and MPs were trying to contact members before their resignations took effect.

    One Liberal MP said last night that people on his ­campaign committee, who manned electoral booths and helped count votes on election night, said they would no longer campaign for the Liberal Party.]

  8. People need to get real about the problems of neoliberal economic orthodoxy. This isn’t just the fault of Labor. Labor was the party which originated these changes to our economy. For that it deserves robust criticism. But the dominance of the neoliberal framework extends to all political parties today, including the Greens. It dominates public awareness of economic concepts. It is a pernicious problem and it will require large scale education campaigns and generational change to solve. The most urgent change for now is for at least one political party to explain how money and government spending actually work.

  9. BK – re the bullying at Broken Hill Hospital.
    I know Broken Hill Hospital quite well, having been doing some stints out there for more than 8 years. The bullying at Broken Hill is by the administration – who are mainly ex-nurses. This is a common pattern in NSW public hospitals.

  10. I’ll correct that for you,BK.

    [The issue of bullying by surgeons hospital management is gathering steam. At last people are saying “enough is enough!” ]

    It seems the bullying in NSW Health is rife, as is falsification of documents.

    We are not talking arguable nuances here, matters of interpretation. We are talking about wholesale, verifiable, corroborated falsification of documents in disciplinary matters.

    Bullying, too is rife.

    At the Sydney hospital where my wife works HR and management are waging a war against older women employed in administration too, not just nursing.

    Management, usually older women themselves, is a law unto itself, and in collusion with HR they simply lie. Anyone, like my wife, who bucks the system and fights back, is victimized. It can get terribly debilitating.

    Lawyers you talk to shrug their shoulders and say, “Meh. That’s NSW Health!” because the culture is so entrenched.

    You come up against repeated “factual” references to incidents that didn’t occur (in some cases incidents that could not possibly have occurred), official documents that state bald falsehoods, such as listing people who attended meetings who did not, or altering and backdating records and then inserting them in the official record.

    You think you’re going crazy. You complain. You point out the facts, with conclusive proof, and the response from management is even more vicious and full of lies. You are threatened with further discipline for complaining, and if that doesn’t work (which it doesn’t), they just falsify the record even more.

    It’s like that scene in Rosemary’s Baby where Rosemary turns to all her friends and finds they are all devil worshippers.

    No wonder the woman in the Herald piece thought she was going mad, and was worried about her mental health. In such a toxic atmosphere, it’s easy to think you’ve caught the disease yourself.

  11. I have never quite understood why we (Abbott) are spending so much money hunting for a lost aircraft. Was TA jus trying to parade his ‘humanity’?

    [She posed as a Foreign Minister who cares deeply for the oppressed of other nations, what in former times were called ‘the wretched of the earth’, though she has cut all foreign aid by half. She has sent forty million to help nine million displaced Syrians, that is, five dollars each, and spent one hundred and twenty million looking for a downed aircraft, the MH 370. She will spend another hundred million on this quest; it is not known why.]

  12. Nicholas

    [Labor was the party which originated these changes to our economy. For that it deserves robust criticism.]

    OK, let’s kick this ball down the road.

    Which changes shouldn’t have been introduced? Why?

    My understanding of the situation was that – certainly with floating the dollar – Labor had little choice but to change. Our economy doesn’t exist in a vacuum; it is part of the global economy. Even non capitalistic countries such as China has recognised this and adapted – and if any country was in a position to go it alone economically surely it would be China.

    Are you suggesting Australia withdraw from the global economy? If so, how would it do this?

    I do understand the ‘everything is wrong, we need to change it’ feeling – I’ve been through that myself. Undoubtedly, if we were starting civilisation (or even just Australia) over from scratch, we could do things very differently. But as it is, most of our ways of doing things have evolved for a reason (basically because, however cobbled together with bits of baling twine and gaffer tape they are, they work) and unravelling what is completely is fraught with difficulties (many of them unforeseeable).

    Advocating changing the world, by all means – but recognise that this is a very difficult task, most permanent changes are incremental, and that even the most well thought out changes have adverse consequences.

  13. [Political fix planned for China trade deal impass

    The political impasse over the China trade deal could soon be broken with Labor shifting its position to enable the protection of local jobs while leaving the deal untouched and allowing both the government and Beijing to save face.

    Senior sources have told The Australian Financial Review that while Labor would still insist on legislated changes to the Migration Act to enforce labour market testing before workers were imported, there would be no specific mention of China or the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA).

    The safeguards would, in effect, apply generally to all FTAs, would be non-discriminatory and require no change whatsoever to the agreement itself.

    At the same time, it would still assuage labour movement concerns over the China agreement, which has more generous provisions for imported workers on large projects than any comparable deal.

    The government will rush the legislation through the House but because of Senate estimates, it cannot be debated in the Senate until November 9.

    The government need Labor.

    It lacks the support of the requisite number of Senate independents with opponents, such as Nick Xenophon, believing the deal is bad for local jobs and he does not like the ISDS.

    Independent Senator John Madigan has called the deal “WorkChoices by stealth”.]

    Read more:

  14. Nicholas
    [People need to get real about the problems of neoliberal economic orthodoxy. This isn’t just the fault of Labor. Labor was the party which originated these changes to our economy. For that it deserves robust criticism. But the dominance of the neoliberal framework extends to all political parties today, including the Greens. It dominates public awareness of economic concepts. It is a pernicious problem and it will require large scale education campaigns and generational change to solve. The most urgent change for now is for at least one political party to explain how money and government spending actually work.]
    What exactly do you mean by “Neoliberal economic orthodoxy”? Do you mean Neo-classical economics? Monetarism? Keynesianism? I trust you are not just talking about balancing budgets, since even socialist States do that. If you are talking about public versus private spending, then what do you believe is “correct”?

  15. BB@15:
    Administration in NSWH consists almost entirely of those who can’t telling those who can that they can’t.

  16. [ Window dressing helps save the day

    This September wasn’t a good one for investors.

    The major S&P ASX 200 index fell 3.56 per cent and nine months into the 2015 calendar year, six of them have now been in the red following a bright start.

    But a decent bounce amid some window-dressing of stocks on Wednesday did help to improve the monthly and quarterly performance of the major S&P ASX 200 index, although the issues over China, commodity prices and interest rates in the United States haven’t gone away.

    The spike higher, however, wasn’t enough to avoid the index putting in its worst quarter in four years when it dipped 8 per cent.

    It was the worst three-month performance since shares fell 13 per cent in the third quarter of 2011.

    The major index is now hovering just above the 5000 level, but for any investor who jumped on board when it first went through that level, in March, 2006, it’s been almost a lost decade.]

    Read more:

  17. BB
    [It seems the bullying in NSW Health is rife, as is falsification of documents.

    We are not talking arguable nuances here, matters of interpretation. We are talking about wholesale, verifiable, corroborated falsification of documents in disciplinary matters.

    Bullying, too is rife.]

    It’s not just NSW!

  18. BB, rhwombat
    [Administration in NSWH consists almost entirely of those who can’t telling those who can that they can’t.]
    I fear such problems cross state boundaries. SA health has an extraordinary number of execs and administrators, yet still manages not to pay its bills to suppliers for months at times. I shudder to think how they treat those within the department.

  19. Morning all

    Thanks BK and others for today’s offerings.

    Goodness me i am listening to Morrison right now on ABC radio. He is a motor mouth and deliberately so. His mantra of work save and invest getting a workout! Seriously between Turnbull the waffler and Sco mo. Dog help us!

  20. From BK’s link – Adele Ferguson making excellent points –

    [ This scandal has put the spotlight on the dark side of labour in this country.

    When there are safety issues on mines the government intervenes with stop orders until the problems are fixed.

    When there is illegal payment of wages and people are left homeless or eating food out of the bin, the government turns a blind eye.

    What has gone on at 7-Eleven is the tip of a very big and ugly iceberg and if we aren’t careful we will end up like the United States where a large part of the economy is built on illegal wages.

    Or maybe we are already there.]

  21. CTar1

    [ VW should have been smacked more often as a child. 😀 ]
    The young VW never got over the trauma of being put on the potential adoptees list of the Poms as WWII compo.

    The poms wisely rejected it as the thing would never sell 🙂 Which if they got their hands on it would probably have been the case.

  22. Morning all.

    Thanks BK for today’s reading. Interesting timing by Daniel Chick to expose the worst kept secret in footy.

    From yesterday’s Mumble, Malcolm more likely to be in for a good time rather than a long time.
    [Most importantly, a strong economy is crucial to longevity. All the long-serving prime ministers enjoyed economic booms, and while this can be partly facilitated by their policies, more of it comes from what earlier governments did, and most of all it depends on what the world throws at the country.

    So in one sense Turnbull’s timing, in a government’s first term, has been impeccable. But while re-election in 2016 is highly likely, with the medium-term economic prognosis remaining spluttery he’s likely to be in for a good time rather than a long one.]

  23. What IS it with Health departments?

    I’ve been involved in my wife’s case from the start, at first naively expecting that they would conform to their own guidelines for discipline and just drop the matter, because it was obviously so trivial.

    We crafted a submission together and went to the meeting with conclusive proof that they were over-egging the process. They listened politely and then came down on her like a ton of bricks.

    They forced her to go through a performance improvement process whereby the person who had originally accused her controlled the process. The didn’t even turn up to the formal, scheduled meetings that had been arranged, and gave no explanation why, but then wrote it up as if they’d been to every one of them, scrupulously, and that my wife had “failed” it.

    Then they tried to get her for “misconduct”. Misconduct is easy, because somewhere in the rules it says that the offended person only has to “perceive” he or she is offended, and the employee is guilty. You don’t need any pesky documentary evidence. This is especially true if the “offended” person is of management level. My wife was accused of racism, swearing, physical bullying and intimidation. One one memorable occasion she was accused of “answering a question in an accusatory tone”. When she responded to this by saying that “an accusatory tone” was in the mind of the beholder, their answer was that my wife was such a thug she didn’t even know when she was being a thug. This is a common ploy: they tell you you’re so hopeless and inept that you can’t even intellectually understand what they’re talking aboutand why they’re so “hurt” and “intimidated”.

    Then the falsification of the record occurred. Meetings started being recorded as “held” that were never held. On a couple of occasions they didn’t check the timesheets properly, and accused my wife of giving cheek at meeting even though she was on 2 weeks’ leave at the time and couldn’t possibly have been there. When she pointed this out they accused her of disputing a manager’s honesty, having a complaining nature and impertinance. This appeared on a later disciplinary charge sheet.

    We have since seen this record, and it was changed and backdated, the original reference removed, and history sanitized. This is outright falsification of the record, but the person you complain to is the person who either falsified the record in the first place, or the HR manager who claimed to have witnessed the incident but couldn’t have, because it never happened. In either case you get a polite hearing and are then taken out and hanged.

    They pile it on. They’re not worried about their phoney performance issues now. They’re saving their own arses, because if it ever gets to court they’ll go down in a heap. The aim is to get rid of the employee who (in their eyes) “makes trouble” by defending themselves, so that the record can be shredded when they’re gone, permanently.

    The defamatory statements begin to accumulate. These are put on the record so that the inner circle can all read each others’ emails and documents, and if at some time in the future any lawyers happen upon these files it looks like management mistakenly employed Attila The Hun, or perhaps Frankenstein’s Monster instead of a human being. More falsification of the record is carried out with names and dates changed to suit the particular point they wish to make. You complain, but they just shrug it off and put you down as a “trouble maker”, with an “attitude” problem. Only nitpickers worry about quibbles like events that never happened, or meetings that never occurred. So say the biggest nitpickers of all: management. Then they redouble their efforts to get you.

    Usually by much earlier in the process the employee has had enough and runs screaming from the building, their career in Health ruined. If they have been dismissed they can never get another job in Health, anywhere.

    My wife is made of sterner stuff, and we have fought them. She should have been gone over a year ago, and she would have been, except they breached their own processes, and botched the effort so badly that the result has been huge delays while they turn over eye-witnesses, employ new HR people who know nothing about the case, and so achieve the exact opposite of what they wanted: my wife’s still there.

    Along the way we have collected several members of senior management who have been forbidden to be involved in the case. We have seen the HR manager fired for incompetence. We have seen all the HR staff who conducted these sham “investigations either resign or be transferred to other duties. Then entire HR component has been churned over two or three times. Yet they persist in the lies, falsifications and outright breaches of process. It’s become a “hate” thing now. They can’t have a mere employee showing them up.

    As I said, it’s like Rosemary’s Baby, the scene where Rosemary finally twigs that everyone she meets is a devil worshipper, and always has been. Counsellors, document managers, HR personnel, senior management and especially the highest of the high are all in on it. You wonder if you’re paranoid, but you’re not. It is THEY who are paranoid.

    But of course “they” also have the power to turn night into day, black into white and lies into truth, at least as far as the “official record” is concerned. It all looks so neat, and trim. Bang. Bang. Bang. Completely logical. What a horrible person we employed! Eventually, of course, as privatization proceeds they will have to turn on themselves, but I fear we won’t be around for that day.

  24. dave

    I am hoping Adele Ferguson following on from her successful investigation into 7/11, now focuses on the construction industry “phoneix companies”

  25. According to Max Walsh in the Fin Review, we’re heading for a big recessin, possibly double digit unemployment, share values dropping by about a half, etc etc. Time to sell your shares and head for the hills.

    As for Mumbles prognostications, it sounds like he’s thrown away his whole benefit of incumbency shtick. And let us not forget that he fearlessly predicted Rudd would win the last election (when even I had given up hope) and then fearlessly reversed course a couple of days later.

  26. victoria:

    But you’d think as a former WCE player Chick would want to see the Eagles win and would therefore want the club focused on the game not on a scandal.

  27. Vic – Very few doing the type of financial journalism she is doing.

    Michael West has been doing great work revealing the tax scams of multinationals etc.

    Pascoe speaks out as well these days – he seems miles away from the sneering toady of his Channel 9 days.

    Hope Adele does take on “phoneix companies”.

  28. ‘fess

    [PvO says BBishop’s disloyalty to Abbott is a disgrace.]

    Abbott’s new office at Parliament Hse is said to be next to BishSnr in a dead end corridor.

  29. [“I have never quite understood why we (Abbott) are spending so much money hunting for a lost aircraft. Was TA jus trying to parade his ‘humanity’?”]

    Probably because your not a deep thinker.

    What about the families of the dead? And how many other expensive gestures have you supported in the past but now are whining because this one is under an Abbott Government?

  30. TrueBlueAussie@43

    Probably because your not a deep thinker.

    Going on your posts here – you are the last person to be laying down the law on *Thinking*

    You have your own PB stupidity rule.

    Stand up comedy – might just be your niche in life.

  31. Vic business is pissed off that tomorrow is a public holiday. This media release from last week

    [Following the government’s declaration of next Friday’s grand final eve public holiday, VECCI continues to call for the government to ensure this event is not repeated in coming years.
    On grand final Friday, the cost to pay Victoria’s almost 2 million full time employees not to come to work could reach $543 million for the day.]
    – See more at:

  32. [4.The stuff from 2006 must give pause to appointing Worsfold especially to a club like Essendon with a compromised history]

    Nah only to a few ignorant east coasters who’ll believe whatever they like without evidence.

    For a start over here we can tell the difference between a few taking recreational drugs (although never proved) leading to a suspension and almost a whole club taking at the direction of the club a range of experimental drugs which were so ‘legal’ no records were kept leading to zero player suspensions.

    That these differences can’t be worked out over there explains the afl tribunal – they must add stupid to the drinking water.

  33. BB – Keep up the good fight! Organisations are such a sump for maddies, aren’t they?
    I don’t need to tell you, I’m sure, but it’s very important to keep a paper trail (so they know you’re going to court). I know a very senior bureaucrat who was once asked by a guy being bullied in another department what he should do. The advice was to minute every meeting and then send the minute to the other side and ask for them to sign it for the record. The bullying stopped after that.

  34. Victoria …. worked with a few motor mouths like Morrison in my time. Their general characteristics:

    Initially affable and friendly, smile a lot but after a while you sense it’s a forced smile hiding another motive, fond of being seen as a ‘mate’, one of the lads or girls.

    Tend to dominate conversations, speaking confidently but after a while when you think about what they have actually said, are left feeling it was all a bit vacuous

    Have a stock set of particular phrases which get thrown into every conversation.

    Tend to rise quite quickly in workplace settings, seen as a can do, go getter

    After a few months it’s clear that motor mouth is a self-promoting git, an empty vessel, surrounding him or herself with a little coterie of worshipers and coveting power to dominate.

    When they move on, which they often do quite quickly, they leave an almighty mess with lots of angry people that have been pushed aside and burnt.

    Motor mouth Morrison to a tee, IMHO

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