BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition

The only new poll this week was a strong result for the Coalition, resulting in a minor shift in their favour on what currently passes for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is in a state of flux at the moment, as I’m treating the Liberal leadership change as the starting point for a new series, but don’t yet have enough data points to generate a meaningful trend result. As such, the results shown on the sidebar are simply a weighted average of the six available Turnbull-era poll results, with the one poll result this week (from Essential Research, which was a bad one for Labor) having no more bearing on the total than last week’s. It’s still been enough to knock the Coalition’s two-party reading up 0.4%, and to credit them with gains on the seat projection from New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. I’ve also neglected to update the graphs since last week, and there wasn’t anything new this week in the way of leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,171 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition”

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  1. Really enjoyed the debate that has been going on around Uber since the ACT decided to legalise and regulate it.

    Listened to both Waleed Aly’s morning on 774 and Triple J’s Hack yesterday.

    Obviously the taxi industry is protecting their own interests by hitting out against it, but I can only think that everyone will win when both taxi and hire care fees are severely reduced and that Uber drivers are made to comply with a few basic regulations.

    Still unhappy how high the licensing fees are for Victoria at 20k and 40k for taxis and hire cars respectively. The ones in the ACT are a small fraction of it.

  2. I’ve also been asking the question on whether taxi drivers and licensed hire cars can use Uber themselves. No one seems to be able to answer the question.

    Is Cabcharge holding a monopoly against it?

  3. I am sure there will be a number of posters here who will disagree with me but re CHAFTA I think the way the whole process demands by labor to include legislated certainty for labour market testing has been and will continue to be a masterclass by Shorten, Wong and labor.

    Get the Tories to jump up and down screaming about what is not possible and why it cannot be done and then offer a compromise that shoots down the objections in flames.

    The Tories have painted themselves into a corner on this concentrating their arguments on why it cannot be changed while labor concentrates on how it can be changed to satisfy any concerns.

    Simple and low key but very effective.

    If the solution by labor satisfies all the ranting by the Tories then they will either have to accept the compromise or explain why they will not. Either way labor wins irrespective of how the MSM reports it.

    My take anyway.


  4. Kevin-One-Seven 48

    Wise advise. I’d add that a deep knowledge of an employer’s HR process rules and requirements also helps. The majority of HR legal actions/appeals fall over not because there was not some merit in the application but because a party, usually the employer, failed to accurately follow their own HR process requirements and guidelines. Another good reason to join your Union, who will know the HR rules inside out.

  5. victoria

    [ Agreed. All i took out of Scomo interview this morning was his slogan, work, save, invest. ]

    Of course, what he’d really like to say is “Work. Be Silent. Die.” … but for some reason the focus groups have a problem with that one.

  6. Doyley

    Labor have always maintained that they support CHAFTA, as long as Labour market testing is legislated to protect rights, safety and opportunity for Australian workers

  7. The new chairman of 7eleven (who has been on the board for years) says underpayment and exploitation of workers is rife throughout the economy.

    This is a much bigger scandal than what the CFMEU is alleged to have done and makes a mockery of the Heydon RC. It also exposes the push to eliminate penalty rates for these same workers as a complete sham.

    [Scandal-plagued 7-Eleven’s newly minted chairman has declared the nation has a widespread problem with wage fraud and revealed that even his own daughter has been ripped off.

    Speaking as 7-Eleven chairman and billionaire Russ Withers and chief executive Warren Wilmot resigned from their roles, Michael Smith told Fairfax Media that his company’s problems were the tip of the iceberg for wage exploitation of young and foreign workers in Australia and made a plea for an immigration amnesty for affected workers.]

  8. Person suspected of have drug dependency issues admits to having drug dependency issues and to using a medicine prescribed for a diagnosed medical condition.

    Uses new and unique ‘everyone was doing it defence’ and ‘it was their fault defence’.

    *rolls eyes*

  9. victoria,

    Exactly. But there has been some ill informed reporting and commentary on this this that has been laughable.

    But with the MSM we have in this country that is no surprise and the rantingd of some here have also been predictable either knee jerk anti labor and or knee jerk anti Shorten.

    The simple position the Tories will now find themselves in is to explain why they will not accept the reported compromise given it appears to meet the concerns expressed by Robb and co or accept the deal and the implied consequences that improvements and protections have been included as a result of labor standing up for workers by insisting on sensible compromise.

    Either way a win for labor.


    I mentioned in a post last evening that Shorten has no need to be running around this week like a dervish. The time will come for him to be front and centre and he will pick that time as he always has over the last two years.

    CHAFTA will be front and centre as Parliament resumes on the 12th and that will be interesting to watch the Tories angle around their previous Robb led ravings.

    There is much for labor to concentrate on and no need to grab at any and everything. Pick and choose.


  10. Victoria

    Talking of motor mouths ……. I noted your comment yesterday about Nichalia Cash.

    She too is hugely afflicted by motor mouthism. What a headache causing shrew is she when she opens her mouth ….. screeching, head nodding, verbal diarrhoeaing, and her Austrayan articulation is so ……. Shall I say it ……. ?????? ……. Yes I will say it …….. boganite.

    She has no ability to modulate her speech. No fasts n slows, louds n quiets, hipitches n low pitches …… it’s all screech, attack, screech, attack, screech, attack.

    Add this to her congenital vitriol and what’s on offer is a nasty one who is unpleasant to listen too.

    And to think she is one of the leading ones who kicked at FPMJG with all sorts of criticisms in the area of speech, demeanour, dress, deportment.

  11. [Raaraa
    Posted Thursday, October 1, 2015 at 9:10 am | PERMALINK
    I’ve also been asking the question on whether taxi drivers and licensed hire cars can use Uber themselves. No one seems to be able to answer the question.

    Is Cabcharge holding a monopoly against it?]

    It seems the new ACT legislation would allow regular taxi drivers to go through Uber or any other ride share company. Whether the current taxi monopolies that control the industry would attempt to penalise drivers who did so is another matter.

    The legislation also provides for licensed taxis to have a monopoly on picking up fares at taxi ranks and hailed in the street. All Uber rides would need to be booked.

  12. Why should Labor wave anything through?

    As with any negotiation, you don’t just give away your position from the start.

    Putting their objections up front serves another purpose too. It gets the issue and Labor’s framing reported.

  13. If there was ever an issue crying out for a Royal Commission its the theft scam and intimidation revealed by 7 Eleven investigation and the wider application of such practices throughout the country.

  14. I spoke to someone at Galaxy. As they aren’t doing any polling this long weekend for any client, there will be no Newspoll this weekend. It’s been pushed back a week. Their next Omnibus polling schedule, which is when they do all their work, including Newspoll, will be conducted 8-11 October. So expect it out the Monday or Tuesday afterwards.

  15. It occurs to me that Turnbull is especially dangerous in the area of economic policy and IR because he is not beholden to any electoral promises. Abbott and Hockey got clobbered because they broke key promises and it was obviously they lied.

    however, turnbull now goes into an election year. the libs must be wishing they’d ditched abbott six months ago.

    unfortunately, I think the libs will be able to convince people that they are less likely to change leaders again – people don’t like shorten much and expect he’ll get axed as some point. unfair but I think true.

    my worry is turnbull is going to introduce many of the IRA policies that abbott wanted to fight people about but with charm and reason. he will find a DD trigger while his numbers are up and go for it.

    [Turnbull government abandons controversial university reforms in major departure from Abbott era
    October 1, 2015 – 9:21AM
    Matthew Knott
    Communications and education correspondent

    The Turnbull government has dropped its plan to allow universities to set their own fees from next year, and will go back to the drawing board on higher education reform.

    Education and Training Minister Simon Birmingham will announce on Thursday that he will not reintroduce the government’s higher education bill into Parliament for another vote this year.

    Any changes to university fees will now come into effect in 2017 at the earliest, after the next federal election.]

  17. Doyley

    agreed. In any event Turnbull has convened this summit that involves all stakeholders. Labor will be seeing what transpires

  18. Lomberg is still trying to set up his sham climate institute. However fortunately this time he doesn’t have the backing of Abbott.

    [Renewables to fail climate change: Lomborg

    CONTROVERSIAL scientist Dr Bjorn Lomborg has defended his proposed Climate Consensus Centre at an Adelaide university, saying climate change is real but we’re fighting it the wrong way.

    FLINDERS University’s council will on Thursday night decide whether to allow Dr Lomborg’s proposed centre after protests from students and staff who argue it will hurt Australia’s standing in the academic world.]

  19. FKelly’s i/v of Truffles this morning contained 2 distinct “atmospheres”.

    It began with matters economical, and ended with ChFTA. In both these sections Truffles was at his bullshitting best …. rolled off his tongue very fluently.

    But have a listen to the 2 areas discussed in the middle …… Climate Change, then Manus/Nauru. In those sections came, hesitations, umms, jerkiness, stutters …. marked influency. The bullshit just wouldn’t flow properly.

    Truffles is not at ease when on these topics. Unlike Abbott, he has insight, and he knows that we know that he knows he’s a charlatan and hypocrite especially in those policy areas.

    And BTW in the last questions about ChFTA he sprouted the lie again that Labor is agin ChFTA and of course Kelly failed to follow up with “but isn’t it the case that they’re for the agreement and just want manditory work testing to be domestically legislated?” Lazy? Incompetent? Biased?

    Probably all three.

  20. Murdoch seems to be keeping the light on for Abbott. Long may he continue to destabilise the Liberals.

    Hundreds of Libs resigning
    The Liberal Party is receiving hundreds of letters of resignation from members after removal of Tony ­Abbott.

    Libs ‘happy with transition’
    Malcolm Turnbull plays down claims of Liberals resigning, saying feedback shows members “very happy with the transition”.

    Turnbull has to deliver stability
    The country desperately needs a Bob Hawke, or at least a Malcolm Fraser.]

  21. He is Shocked. Shocked.

    Amazing how being caught red handed and publicly exposed focuses the mind and gets arse coving into gear.

    But I agree with the bit that people won’t believe 7 Eleven –

    [ Up until the wages scandal was revealed by Fairfax Media and Four Corners, Mr Smith was chairman of the prestigious Australian Institute of Company Directors. Mr Smith stood aside from this position to focus on 7-Eleven.

    He said he had been “shocked” and “appalled” by revelations in Fairfax Media and Four Corners of systemic wage abuse and a flawed business model. The media investigation also found head office had been complicit in covering up the extent of the problem.

    Mr Smith estimated the soon-to-be-announced changes to the company’s business model would cost “many millions of dollars”.

    “As incredible as this might seem, I’d like to think I’m a careful, competent director who has taken a lot of care in this business with a high quality board and high quality advisers,” Mr Smith said.

    “If I was on the outside, I’d find that incredible to believe and I don’t expect people to believe differently.” ]

    Read more:

  22. Labor’s reported compromise on ChAFTA and Turnbott’s retreat on uni fees suggests both sides are slimming down for the election.

    The economic outlook also makes it likely that Turnbott will go early. With an increased likelihood that unemployment will start to rise and a deteriorating fiscal position through 2016, he will likely not want to wait until next Spring.

    So this means a DD before the budget session of Parliament…as soon as the redistribution of seats in WA and NSW have been completed. March. March next year.

  23. victoria,

    Today’s summit is simply “What new leaders do to look like they are doing something 101”.

    Nothing will come from it except the MSM reporting how good Turnbull is and how good his new “agenda” is whatever that may be. Meanwhile AFL and NRL are front and centre and parents have just about had a gutful of school holidays and have no real interest in politics at this point.

    CHAFTA may rate a mention today but the real game will begin next week leading into Parliament sitting on the 12th.

    Shorten and labor will have plenty to say then. A good example is it now appears the coalition has no higher education policy, labor does have one that is considered workable and costed.

  24. lefty e@78

    Despite that loser Abbott’s self-serving tripe, we are seeing some substantial policy changes under Turnbull.

    Another take is they are ditching policy which will not get past in the senate.

    Its terrible policy being taken of the table out of practical necessity – and at the barrel of a looming election.

    Its taking out the trash of abbott and pyne.

  25. Turnbott can hardly propose to talk meaningfully about the economy of the future while also chopping education. The guts of it is we need to spend a lot more on education, research, technology and science, applied innovation rather than a lot less.

  26. Beware any lull in crises. It creates a vacuum. Hence Abetz represents the rallying of the right; Abbott is telegraphing that he waits in the wings. The electorate needs to learn low-GI politics and to shun the sugar hit. Turnbull is talking at length about this – i am a measured, considered activist etc. It’s no good telling people. He needs to ration his appearances; use Abbott’s KISS formula; deal with the electorate as if it were a hyperactive child – a few clear words, repeated firmly, that’s all. Less is more.

  27. briefly

    Labor’s reported compromise on ChAFTA]
    The reported “change in position” is that Labor will pass it if Australian workers are protected. Wasn’t that always their position ?

  28. Doyley @ 80
    It’s possible the summit is directed internally with the goal of convincing Coalition politicians to compromise on ideology and accept changes in policy.

  29. citizen@64

    Posted Thursday, October 1, 2015 at 9:10 am | PERMALINK
    I’ve also been asking the question on whether taxi drivers and licensed hire cars can use Uber themselves. No one seems to be able to answer the question.

    Is Cabcharge holding a monopoly against it?

    It seems the new ACT legislation would allow regular taxi drivers to go through Uber or any other ride share company. Whether the current taxi monopolies that control the industry would attempt to penalise drivers who did so is another matter.

    The legislation also provides for licensed taxis to have a monopoly on picking up fares at taxi ranks and hailed in the street. All Uber rides would need to be booked.

    While I was on holiday in Malaysia, I just booked taxis through one of the many third-party cab booking apps. Only at shopping centres did I bother with hiring one from the rank. I have a few friends there who have permanently switched to Uber, and if I’m not mistaken a portion of the Uber drivers drive regular cabs.

  30. [84
    En Quiry

    Abbott is telegraphing that he waits in the wings.]

    For Turnbott, the way to cement victory over Abbott is to call an election around some themes that will both unify his party and that are not identified with Abbott – around his own themes of modernising reform – and then win the election. If he can do this, he will be able to bury Abbott for good.

    Labor are probably going to help him out. They have already marked out the space for the contest.

  31. TBA showing what a ‘deep thinker’ he is. Sometimes a tragedy is just that. There are many such mysteries which have not had $millions thrown at them.

    [What about the families of the dead? And how many other expensive gestures have you supported in the past but now are whining because this one is under an Abbott Government?]

  32. I am finding it hard to see the downside to any people resigning from the Liberal Party because they want Abbott back. I’m sure there is some downside but I just don’t see it.

  33. I’m rich. Being a holder of 186 shares in CBA I was entitled to apply for 9 shares under the recent share issue. Because I didn’t I received $2 per entitlement or $18. Life is good. That Lamborghini is getting closer 🙂

  34. poroti,

    Hope you don ‘t mind me butting in on your question to briefly ?

    Labor was hinting at changes to the enabling legislation specific to the CHAFTA re labour market testing as well as one or two other issues.

    It now appears labor will put forward legislated changes to the Migration Act that will cover all current and future FTA’s not just CHAFTA.

    One of the biggest attacks by Robb and co was that labor was targeting China with its demand and that it was racist etc.etc.

    This new reported approach does not mention CHAFTA but is a blanket protection for all agreements.

    At once it takes the rug out from the arguments put forward by Robb and also offers a apparent compromise that thelibs must either accept or explain why. They will need a whole new argument stockpile to cover their arse if they refuse the apparent compromise.

    I say apparent compromise because I feel labor is now where it wanted to be anyway. It looks good that labor is prepared to deal and the Libs need to now decide what to do.

    Always put up more than what you actually want when opening negotiations and if you end up where you always wanted to be while looking like you have compromised is a big win. Labor has done this.

    The Libs will look as if they have backed down if they accept and as if there were real issues with the agreement from the start or if they refuse they must now explain why after labor has ” compromised “.

    Remember the changing of the Migration Act was first put forward by Craig Emerson and it was no coincidence that this is where labor is now.

    Shorten and labor have done well.

    It may look like a compromise ( which labor will be happy with ) but it is where labor always wanted to be.

    Just my take anyway.


  35. Turnbull ditches university deregulation because it won’t get through the Senate = a master at work.

    Abbott ditches Medicare co payment because it won’t get through the Senate = desperation.

    (Memo to self: must send these lines through to Abbott, I’m sure he’d use them….)

  36. Doyley

    Butt in all you like 🙂 Thanks for that look at what the changes are. The short news clip I saw made it sound like some sort of back down by Labor .

  37. zoomster

    [ Turnbull ditches university deregulation because it won’t get through the Senate = a master at work. ]

    He hasn’t ditched them altogether, he’s just deferred them till after the next election.

    I think the Turnbott will be doing that with a lot of these unpleasant policies that his party won’t actually let him dump.

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