BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition

The only new poll this week was a strong result for the Coalition, resulting in a minor shift in their favour on what currently passes for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is in a state of flux at the moment, as I’m treating the Liberal leadership change as the starting point for a new series, but don’t yet have enough data points to generate a meaningful trend result. As such, the results shown on the sidebar are simply a weighted average of the six available Turnbull-era poll results, with the one poll result this week (from Essential Research, which was a bad one for Labor) having no more bearing on the total than last week’s. It’s still been enough to knock the Coalition’s two-party reading up 0.4%, and to credit them with gains on the seat projection from New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. I’ve also neglected to update the graphs since last week, and there wasn’t anything new this week in the way of leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,171 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition”

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  1. “@shanebazzi: .@sarahinthesen8: I’m very concerned about the safety of women and children who will be living in #Nauru.”

    “@shanebazzi: .@sarahinthesen8: It’s not safe outside the camp, not safe in the camp #Nauru”

  2. “@ABCNews24: Hanson-Young: I don’t think sending more police officers to #Nauru is going to end the security issues. #auspol”

  3. Does Sarah Hanson-Young support the increased police presence on Nauru or is she just doing her usual Minister of Whinging bit?

    More police on Nauru should make her very happy and put her “fears” to rest(lets just pretend for a moment she’s fair dinkum with her “concerns”, but I think we all know it’s BS political posturing and she only wants an Australian Solution)

  4. [““@ABCNews24: Hanson-Young: I don’t think sending more police officers to #Nauru is going to end the security issues. #auspol””]

    Oh… that answers that then. She’s full of shit

  5. @abcnewsSydney: Parents with children at risk of radicalisation must steer them in the right direction, NSW Deputy Commissioner says.http://t.co/cFJg4lAurM

    How many radicals is Australia creating with its cruel inhumane detention hell holes?

  6. “@david_manne: On @ABCNews24 shortly about changes for the situation of some people held in Nauru seeking #refugee protection”

  7. lizzie

    A couple of chaps involved in the beginning had gone to Rugby School in England so there would be some input from there. Back then kicking was far more important for scoring. A try scored a miserable 1 point vs 3 points for drop goals, penalties.

    A New Zealand Natives Rugby team in the 1880s toured England and Australia . Apart from rugby they also played a number of Aussie rules games. Their opposition included some familiar names , Carlton, Essondon ,Sth Melbourne and St Kilda. They even beat Sth Melbourne!

  8. [2097
    TrueBlueAussie

    I fully support this new move by Nauru and means what legitimate refugees will be better integrated into their new homeland.

    Nauru and PNG are both signatories of the UNHCR Refugee Convention so there is no reason for them not to stay there for life.

    Also.. those calling for a regional processing solution… this is IT… this is what it looks like. Processed in the region and resettled in the region in UNHCR Refugee Signatory Countries.]

    Australia has out-sourced its gulag.

  9. [“Australia has out-sourced its gulag.”]

    They aren’t Australian, get over it.

    And they have 3 Options as I outlined earlier. If they don’t like any of those 3 available options, tough tiddies

  10. TBA

    Doesn’t matter how much you bleat …. Abbott isn’t coming back & Scott will follow shortly as all his secrets come out , lying toad that he is.

  11. [2113
    TrueBlueAussie

    “Australia has out-sourced its gulag.”

    They aren’t Australian, get over it.]

    Australia apprehends and traffics the contents of the gulag into these jurisdictions; it pays for their confinement; it purports to regulate their condition. All this is done for Australian political purposes.

    There is certainly a sense in which Australian territorial sovereignty and the application of our civil law has been replaced with some now-you-see-me-now-you-don’t legal trickery.

    Nevertheless, Australian law and force is applied in extra-territorial jurisdictions – in our gulag – by our ensigns and for our purposes. If there is a legal sense in which these domains of political incarceration are not Australian, there is certainly no real, lived, 3D sense in which they are anything but Australian.

  12. Not quite the same argument as ACOSS, Bill.

    [“For people on $40,000 and $50,000 and $60,000 dollars a year, penalty rates are the difference as to whether or not they can afford to send their kids to a private school,” he said.

    “In the retail industry and in the hospitality industry – they are on average, along with agriculture, the lowest paid industries in Australia,” he said.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-links-penalty-rates-with-parents-affording-private-schools-20151005-gk1ehw.html#ixzz3nfWLwC9Q

  13. 2104
    lizzie

    The campaign to return the Australian labour market to the 19th century is simmering away.

    There are few things that could be more destructive to the economy, to living standards, to social and political cohesion.

  14. lizzie,
    [Not quite the same argument as ACOSS, Bill.]

    My reaction too.

    Seriously, who is advising him or did he come up with that himself. “Tin ear” indeed.

  15. [“For people on $40,000 and $50,000 and $60,000 dollars a year, penalty rates are the difference as to whether or not they can afford to send their kids to a private school,” he said.]

    illjudged brain fart.

  16. Buzzfeed: http://www.buzzfeed.com/robstott/everyones-getting-ready-for-a-big-fight-over-penalty-rates#.xqLBaeb2yA
    [But Shorten says that for many families, penalty rates can be the difference between sending the kids to private school or being able to pay off a mortgage.]
    Seriously.

    Penalty rates is the difference between putting food on the table or going hungry; paying utility bills or having the electricity cut off; and paying the rent or becoming homeless.

  17. [2122
    CTar1

    “For people on $40,000 and $50,000 and $60,000 dollars a year, penalty rates are the difference as to whether or not they can afford to send their kids to a private school,” he said.

    illjudged brain fart.]

    Not at all.

    Labor and the unions will not win this fight unless they can show that penalty rates are an issue for wide sections of the workforce. If this is perceived to be an issue that only affects the least-well-paid Labor will lose.

    The message is and must be that protecting incomes at the lowest levels is important to everyone, including so-called “aspirational” voters.

    This is an issue that must be used to unite the labour force. If it is used to divide them, the Liberals will most certainly be able to use it to whack Labor and break the wages system.

  18. [Jakarta: An Australian company is reportedly being investigated by Indonesian police over a fire on a palm oil plantation in Borneo as the republic tries to crack down on companies responsible for the haze choking the region.

    Indonesian police told reporters that as of October 1 they were investigating 232 cases of forest and plantation fires. Forty-two cases involve corporations, including two foreign investment companies – Kayung Agro Lestari (PT KAL) from Australia and PT ASP from China]

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/australian-company-kayung-agro-lestari-investigated-over-indonesian-fires-20151005-gk1br7.html#ixzz3nfcdaHja

  19. The issue of penalty rates is not just about those working in low paid retail and hospitality jobs.

    It is also about the tens of thousands of australian nurses, police officers, paramedics working terrible antisocial hours. The penalty rates they earn may not be the difference for them between eating and going hungry for example but the removal of or winding back of those rates would have a substantial negative effect on their life choices in a number of areas including those for their children.

    So the issues is important to a huge number of Austrialians working in low paid hospitality jobs and also for those
    in occupations looking after the health and welfare of all Australians.

    That is the broad issue.

  20. briefly

    I actually agree with you. i know families where both parents work unsociable hours so that they can pay school fees, which are in the vicinity of 10,000 pa

  21. The Liberals want to radically re-make the labour market. Knocking out penalty rates (really, abolishing the standard working week and the standard working day); permitting the use of formal or informal indentures; attacking unions; seeking to divide workers politically…these are arena of labour market deconstruction.

    This is Workchoices Mark II…and it is every bit as dangerous to the economy and especially to working people as Howard’s model.

  22. Also for those jumping up and down about the Shorten comments stop acting like pavlovs’ dog and read what he had to say in its full context when you get the chance.

    Cheers.

  23. [2129
    victoria

    briefly

    I actually agree with you. i know families where both parents work unsociable hours so that they can pay school fees, which are in the vicinity of 10,000 pa]

    This is an enormous challenge for Labor and the unions. It is rally, in a way, about whether individuals and families see themselves as progressing together or as atoms…this is about whether we will choose to be divided by Liberalism or not not.

  24. briefly

    It is plain to see what the coalition are up to. Demonise labor and unions. Put up GST and drive down wages and conditions

  25. victoria@2075

    rossmcg

    Hear hear. Sick of those bitching about the AFL. They can enjoy their NRL. They had a good final last night. Doesnt happen like that every year. So what.

    My oh my, don’t these AFL numpties squeal like little piggies when someone points out a few facts to put their quaint little parochial game in perspective. 😆

  26. lizzie@2117

    Not quite the same argument as ACOSS, Bill.

    “For people on $40,000 and $50,000 and $60,000 dollars a year, penalty rates are the difference as to whether or not they can afford to send their kids to a private school,” he said.

    “In the retail industry and in the hospitality industry – they are on average, along with agriculture, the lowest paid industries in Australia,” he said.


    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-links-penalty-rates-with-parents-affording-private-schools-20151005-gk1ehw.html#ixzz3nfWLwC9Q

    If Shorten said that then he has lost the plot.

  27. bemused

    Who cares what you think. I am confident and mature enough to enjoy an indigineous game that is not played by anyone else. Do i need the approval of other countries to enjoy our native game It is you that is immature and Needs your hand held.

  28. [Political allies of Mr Abbott say the former prime minister and his office were amenable to the idea of sending Mr Turnbull to Washington – given it would see his primary leadership foe leave the political scene in Australia – and that Ms Bishop discussed the idea with Mr Abbott soon after the May budget, as the government enjoyed a brief up-tick in its standing in political opinion polls.

    Ms Bishop put the view, according to colleagues, that Mr Turnbull would make an outstanding contribution to Australia-US relations if he were to take up the posting.

    Mr Turnbull was one of several names considered for the diplomatic appointment, with other candidates in the mix including Mr Abbott’s foreign policy adviser Andrew Shearer and former Liberal opposition leader Brendan Nelson, who is currently head of the Australian War Memorial.

    In the end, the discussions led to nothing and Mr Turnbull resolved to stay in the Parliament. Last month he successfully challenged Mr Abbott for the nation’s top political job.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbulls-sliding-doors-moment–the-washington-posting-that-went-begging-20151005-gk1cqs.html#ixzz3nficgaiz

  29. victoria@2139

    bemused

    Who cares what you think. I am confident and mature enough to enjoy an indigineous game that is not played by anyone else. Do i need the approval of other countries to enjoy our native game It is you that is immature and Needs your hand held.

    Can’t take the heat of international competition so retreat into isolation. 😆

  30. Oh dear, so early.

    [A bushfire has destroyed one home in a regional town south-west of Geelong, with residents of Wensleydale being told to flee.

    The blaze is threatening other homes in the area, as it burns at the edge of a state forest.

    Country Fire Authority crews were called to a scrub and bush fire in Wensleydale, near Winchelsea, shortly after 3pm on Monday.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/home-destroyed-in-wensleydale-bushfire-20151005-gk1p7n.html#ixzz3nfjANZ1g

  31. [2137
    bemused

    If Shorten said that then he has lost the plot.]

    Not at all. 50% of high school kids are enrolled in fee-paying schools operated outside the State sector. Labor has to make it clear that protection of incomes for the least-well-paid is an issue for all working people…this is not an issue that should divide people, but should unify them.

  32. [2133
    victoria

    briefly

    It is plain to see what the coalition are up to. Demonise labor and unions. Put up GST and drive down wages and conditions]

    … and, as a part of the program, cripple the unions and Labor and cement themselves in office…

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