BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition

The only new poll this week was a strong result for the Coalition, resulting in a minor shift in their favour on what currently passes for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is in a state of flux at the moment, as I’m treating the Liberal leadership change as the starting point for a new series, but don’t yet have enough data points to generate a meaningful trend result. As such, the results shown on the sidebar are simply a weighted average of the six available Turnbull-era poll results, with the one poll result this week (from Essential Research, which was a bad one for Labor) having no more bearing on the total than last week’s. It’s still been enough to knock the Coalition’s two-party reading up 0.4%, and to credit them with gains on the seat projection from New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. I’ve also neglected to update the graphs since last week, and there wasn’t anything new this week in the way of leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,171 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition”

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  3. [“Your attack the messenger will not destroy the message.”]

    I know the message… the left will lie and invent stories because they want an Australian Solution and it’s the only one they will accept.

    Of course Aussies who don’t have agenda and more than 2 brains cells to rub together will see the pictures and like me call it out as complete bullshit.

    He stacked his bike in a high velocity fall.

  7. guytaur

    [ If 600 claims can be processed in one week, why have they been in detention for all these years? ]

    What are they processing them into? Fertilizer?

  10. “@PatsKarvelas: I have about 3000 questions about this breaking Nauru story – so many details unanswered #auspol”

  11. [2034
    TrueBlueAussie]

    Yes, it’s time to lift the secrecy on all aspects of the treatment of refugees.

    The legal provisions that prevent disclosure of all the facts should be repealed.

  15. victoria

    I think Josh Taylor’s article is on point here about the Wednesday High Court date.

    Still leaves lots of questions but explains timing and as Ben Cubby tweets

    @bencubby: “Detention has ended,” says Nauru. http://t.co/Rq0mdCKNUR #auspol

  16. I wonder if Truffles will be tempted to nobble ambitious Scrott by arranging for some detention centre dirty linen to come out ?

  18. Fairfax going to town with frank comparisons between the AFL GF and the NRL GF over the weekend and in particular the ‘entertainment’

    http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/nrl-grand-final-recordbreaking-ratings-smash-the-afls-grand-final-efforts-20151005-gk1a71.html

    AFL have a problem … ratings (and crowds) are down. Not one person I spoke to over the w/end were positive about the one sided game… lacklustre, boring, insipid were some of the adjectives used.

  19. People, not companies should have faced GFC prosecution, says Ben Bernanke
    [Former US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said in a newspaper interview published on Sunday that more corporate executives should have been prosecuted for their actions leading up to the 2008 financial crisis.

    Mr Bernanke told USA Today that the US Justice Department and other law enforcement agencies focused on investigating or indicting financial firms.

    Every time I saw a bumper sticker which said, ‘Where’s my bailout?’ it hurt.

    “But it would have been my preference to have more investigation of individual action, since obviously everything that went wrong or was illegal was done by some individual, not by an abstract firm,” Mr Bernanke was quoted as saying.

    Mr Bernanke, who presided over the US central bank during the financial crisis considered the worst since the Great Depression, said it was not up to him to decide whether to prosecute individuals.

    “The Fed is not a law-enforcement agency,” he said.

    “The Department of Justice and others are responsible for that, and a lot of their efforts have been to indict or threaten to indict financial firms,” Mr Bernanke said. “A financial firm is of course a legal fiction; it’s not a person. You can’t put a financial firm in jail.”]

    So is it too late to prosecute the real crooks?

  21. Steven@2068

    Fairfax going to town with frank comparisons between the AFL GF and the NRL GF over the weekend and in particular the ‘entertainment’

    http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/nrl-grand-final-recordbreaking-ratings-smash-the-afls-grand-final-efforts-20151005-gk1a71.html

    AFL have a problem … ratings (and crowds) are down. Not one person I spoke to over the w/end were positive about the one sided game… lacklustre, boring, insipid were some of the adjectives used.

    AFL is just a quaint little parochial game unknown outside Australia.

    Soccer and Rugby Union are played around the world and have international competitions. Rugby League has a limited international competition.

  23. “@rightsagenda: Tune into @ABC_NewsRadio after 3 to hear our @DanielHRLC discuss High Court case against AusGov re detention on Nauru & today’s announcement”

  24. [AFL is just a quaint little parochial game unknown outside Australia.]

    So what? It still draws the biggest sporting crowds in Australia and next year I suspect the MCG will again be full on grand final day.

    Every sporting code has its own place in the scheme of things. Do you think the Irish care what anybody thinks of hurling or Gaelic football? I have seen vision of an All-Ireland final at Croke Park and while I know little of the games I would love to be there for one.

    We should just appreciate each game for what it is .

  25. rossmcg

    Hear hear. Sick of those bitching about the AFL. They can enjoy their NRL. They had a good final last night. Doesnt happen like that every year. So what.

  29. “@political_alert: Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young will discuss Nauru’s announcement regarding refugee processing arrangements, 3:40pm, Hobart #auspol”

  31. The Irish care a great deal about what other people think about their sports. The Gaelic Athletic Association is as much a political organisation as a sporting one. It is one of their ways of saying we are different.

    I have always thought Aussie Rules was the same – a parochial sport for a parochial people – I can’t think of any other reason that people would watch this crap.

  33. rossmg @ 2051

    This all sounds chillingly familiar

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/welcome-to-toryland-a-heartless-place-with-no-room-for-kindness-a6679231.html

    Once again we have a headline that screams about “heartless”, “kindness” etc.

    The Tories will be very happy about this since it enables them maintain the charade that they are “tough but fair” and “they may seem heartless but at least they’re competent” etc. whereas in truth they actually spend “other people’s money” and are incompetent even if it is (incorrectly) accepted that government should be run like a business (competent right wing people are building businesses through creating and serving customers and don’t bother with politics except tactically to advance the needs of their business).

    Moreover the article continues the falsehood that the Tory party is the party of capitalism. Historically capitalism was advanced by the Whigs (Liberals) and was the enemy of the rentier class that controlled the Tory party at that time, and does so to this day. The demise of the Whig/Liberal party in the UK allowed the Tories to pretend to believe in markets (and thus attract the votes associated with that position) but in fact they don’t; never have and presumably they never will.

  34. lizzie

    Both AFL and Rugby face dilemma with concussion. They like boxing are going to find it hard to survive if they take concussion seriously.

    The only way to ensure no concussion is to prevent all collisions with the head accidental or not. Its the concussion occurring and the damage that inflicts that matters.

  35. [ Proterra, the startup Popple runs, designed a sleek new electric bus that drove 258 miles on a single charge in a recent test. ]

    Very cool. 🙂 Seems that with battery tech advancing as fast as it is, as long as vehicles are designed to be somewhat flexible in how they mount batteries this is definitely the coming thing. 10 years from now how we use and distribute power in the economy is going to be very different from today.

  36. Lizzie

    Don’t call it thuggish. Let’s try and raise the tone of the debate!

    I will watch pretty much anything with a ball involved. I don’t always understand what is going on in a rugby scrum but I admire the skill and athleticism and courage and determination of anybody who plays a contact sport at the highest level.

    Champions in one code would almost certainly be champions in another had they chosen that path early enough.

  42. The AFL might be a Australian only sport but Baseball is pretty much an American only sport and they don’t care so I don’t care if no one else plays AFL.

  44. [“With detention ending its going to be a very interesting QandA tonight.”]

    Errr… what?

    The Manus Island detention centre is still being run and the Nauru detention centre isn’t closing, it’s just going to be an open door facility.

    Those who are deemed illegal immigrants and not refugees will need to be deported, by force if necessary.

  47. I fully support this new move by Nauru and means what legitimate refugees will be better integrated into their new homeland.

    Nauru and PNG are both signatories of the UNHCR Refugee Convention so there is no reason for them not to stay there for life.

    Also.. those calling for a regional processing solution… this is IT… this is what it looks like. Processed in the region and resettled in the region in UNHCR Refugee Signatory Countries.

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