Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

Early post-coup trepidation is making way for a fully flowering Malcolm Turnbull honeymoon, if the latest result from Roy Morgan is anything to go by.

Roy Morgan’s second poll of the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership is an even better result for the Coalition than the first, recording a one-point increase in the primary vote to 47%, with Labor down two to 27.5% and the Greens up one to 14%. On the headline two-party figure based on respondent-allocated preferences, the Coalition lead is up from 55-45 to 56-44. Based on preference flows from the 2013 election, it’s up from 53.5-46.5 to 55-45. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends by face-to-face and SMS from a sample of 3011.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Just as the leadership change appears to have cost Roy Morgan its long-established Labor bias, in the short-term it least, so it seems Essential Research has lost its trademark stability. That’s belied by headline figures for this week which show the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, from steady primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 35% for Labor, with the Greens and Palmer United both down a point to 10% and 1% respectively. However, the result of last week’s two-week fortnightly average included a 50-50 result from the previous week that is not included in this week’s result, so it follows that this week’s numbers failed to replicate those that caused last week’s sharp movement from 50-50 to 52-48.

Essential’s first monthly leadership ratings of Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership record his approval rating at 47% and disapproval at 17%, with a weighty 35% opting for don’t know. Bill Shorten enjoys an eight-point drop in his disapproval rating since a month ago to 42%, but his approval rating is up only a point to 30%. Turnbull leads 48-19 as preferred prime minister, which is down from 53-17 when the question was asked immediately after the leadership change.

Also featured are questions on which party is most trusted to handle various issues, which was also asked shortly before Tony Abbott was deposed. Only two results are significantly different: the Liberals’ lead over Labor for “political leadership” is up from 9% to 18%, while that for “treatment of asylum seekers” is down from 12% to 7%. The Greens are included as a response option here, which presumably has the effect of weakening the totals for Labor. Further findings have 42% saying private health insurance should be means tested compared with 44% who said everyone should receive a rebate; 56% rating it more important to expand public transport than to build roads and freeways, versus 33% for vice-versa; and 64% saying new roads and freeways should be built only if governments can pay for them without tolls, versus 24% who believe tolls should be charged as necessary.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,191 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 23 of 24
1 22 23 24
  1. Briefly

    I would say you are far from a pessimist, indeed so rosy tinted is your view that you see blue as rosy red.

    While I agree all is not lost for Labor, I would not want too much money riding on it.

    I think you have a way overblown belief in how much everyone loves the ALP and are underestimating Turnbull’s capacity to navigate stormy waters.

    I think that the economy is a real challenge for Turnbull, but Shorten is going to ALSO have some answers which seem better than those offered by Turnbull. This is going to be bloody hard. Shorten will need to rely 100% on Bowen and Leigh.

    The Free trade agreements are also going to test Turnbull big time. However Shorten needs to develop a line that is sufficiently different to that of Turnbull that appears fair and reasonable without being strident. Another big ask

  2. 1098
    Eliminate the lower wages part. That is not the problem. The problem is that what was once five days a week is now 7. So what I see is that time and a half will move from Sat to Sunday as well. If Labor and the unions want to fight against it go for it. Eventually the ABN holders will come in and destroy penalty rates anyway because they want the money.

  3. [1099

    What if we grow the pie for a change rather than distributing a smaller pie?]

    Good point. The LNP has been growing ever more slowly….down to 0.8% pa in the last quarter…or, in fact, shrinking in per capita terms.

    The LNP basically does not do home-grown growth. They don’t know how.

  4. Happiness@1092

    …interestingly, 26% of elections since the war have had landslides the seat equivalent of 90/150 seats:
    1975 (peak of all elections at 71.7% of seats)

    1966 also. (Coalition 66%)

  5. Kevin Bonham:

    Thanks, there was a typo in my spreadsheet of election results!

    That means 30% of Australian federal elections since the war have had 90/150 landslide equivalents……more than I would have guessed before checking the data.

  6. Expat Follower@1067

    most likely way Coalition gains seats is for Abbott to crop up?? am sure you didnt mean how that reads?

    At the moment Abbott is trying to damn Turnbull with faint praise by saying he will only be “competitive”. A lot of voters hate Abbott but don’t like Shorten either, and may not really care that much between a Turnbull-led Liberal Party and a Shorten-led ALP. Suppose Abbott turns up in the campaign and starts trashing Turnbull, that sort of voter might just vote for MT if for no other reason than to tell Abbott where to go and never come back.

  7. What if we grow the pie for a change rather than distributing a smaller pie?

    the pie will only be distributed into the business owners bank accounts.

  8. In the presently remote event that Turnbull loses the election, the conservatives will force Abbott back in as LNP leader. Abbott isn’t licking his wounds, but maintaining his presence. There is no other viable LNP alternative leader for the foreseeable – certainly not Morrison or Bishop. Meanwhile if Turnbull slips at any time, Abbott will take his opportunity. The chronically depressed electorate would simply resign itself.

  9. 1.13 on the Libs/ 6.00 on Labor pretty amazing odds.

    Will be interested to see if Labor stays tight behind Shorten as the pressure builds.

  10. All afternoon Nicholas knowing the mature honest person you are i was looking for your apology for you earlier post dishonestly misrepresenting me with sh1t you made up. I still haven’t been able to find it can you help me boy?

  11. Vote Turnbull get Abbott is a real prospect after the next election as the right reasserts itself. Assuming Malcolm isn’t allowed too many captains picks.

  12. H,

    60% threshold when reached in the modern era predominantly when overturning a government.

    only example of maintaining a 60% holding seems to be in ’77 (discussed already, the Whitlam factor)

    examples of an incumbent reaching the 60% increased majority point appear to be ’66, and closish to in ’87 and ’04. I cant speak to ’66 with much authority, but even with Latham in ’04 and Johnny’s tax math gaffe in ’87 the incumbents could not get there. Now unless Shorten reaches such disasterous proportions (which there arent signs of thus far), not only is an increased majority difficult but expanding beyond the 60% mark is optimistic to the point of fanciful i suggest 🙂

  13. ….yeah, having gone from a massive landslide loss to a massive landslide win with nothing but a change from Abbott to Turnbull (so far) the backbench must be just itching to switch back.

  14. Expat Follower:

    I don’t think we have ever had an unpopular PM replaced by a very popular alternative. That is why I think we need to consider the possibility of a major unexpected outcome this election. I am not saying it is certain, I am just saying it is on the cards and needs to be considered.

    Depends how the polling goes over the next 2 months and whether Turnbull goes early to take advantage of the Turnboost and to avoid the risk of the right wing sabotage.

  15. More like an Abbott revival would be the the Ghosts of Kevin Rudds past to haunt the Liberal.

    Goodness, the possibility that Abbott could do a Rudd is just too much to contemplate.

  16. I wondered earlier today if Abbott would actually turn up for the next sitting and if he and Bronny would sit close to one another.

    Having him festering away on the bank bench – like Rudd – is a constant reminder of the House of Horrors from not so long ago – not to mention the other damaged Liberal goods around the place.

  17. If the Libs were insane enough to reelect Abbott leader the public reaction would be immediate and comprehensive. The Libs would be doomed for a few election cycles.

  18. [1101


    I would say you are far from a pessimist, indeed so rosy tinted is your view that you see blue as rosy red.]

    I’m sure of one thing, dtt. We have the capacity to campaign. We have the resources – the people, the issues, the methods and the reasons.

    We can do it.

    The Liberals may feel confident now. Let them. Complacency will not be our companion.

  19. H,
    [I don’t think we have ever had an unpopular PM replaced by a very popular alternative]

    Fraser to Hawke? McMahon to Whitlam? Howard was way behind on PPM to Rudd wasnt he (not so sure about this one).

    Its Abbott-relief and sugar hit time, Turnbull if he does well (and Shorten badly) will lose only a few seats. Par is 80-65’ish and we’re on different ground to actually losing which Abbott was tracking towards. Don’t be greedy now 🙂

    I have to admit that over 2009/10 i was predicting the ALP to increase their majority under Rudd, and they would have if he’d called the ETS DD, but then it all imploded into this 3 year nightmare… lets call it a 5 year nightmare that Turnbull hopefully heralds the end of

  20. [ If the Libs were insane enough to reelect Abbott leader ]

    Even if it meant a certain win for the ALP, i would NOT wish that. Its just too revolting to contemplate the smugly ecstatic hysteria of the RWNJobbie types before an Abbot led LNP goes down in flames. Can you imagine the reaction of Bolt, Devine if that occurred??

  21. [1107
    Kevin Bonham]

    Sabotage by Abbott may also just make it plain to voters that a Liberal Government will always have a rotten apple in it…that Abbott could always try to rebound. That would drive voters away by the million.

  22. Expat:

    I am talking about an unpopular PM being replaced by a popular PM from the same side.

    The other examples are popular people winning in landslides…….that is kinda what is happening here but Turnbull is playing the role of the popular LOTO (LOTO within the Coalition if you see what I mean).

  23. Kev B

    [Suppose Abbott turns up in the campaign and starts trashing Turnbull, that sort of voter might just vote for MT if for no other reason than to tell Abbott where to go and never come back]

    mate, i’ve heard more credible theories from piers akerman… surely Rudd’s whiteanting of Gilliard in 2010 is a more likely impact precedent? Tone turns up and trashes Turnbull whose vote increases… i dont think so

  24. The article on the Drum on penalty rates linked to above by Victoria is one of the best I have seen.
    The argument really is about equity.
    In the last 20 years company profits (as a share of total income), executive salaries are up.
    Yes other wages until recently have also risen, but not nearly at the same rate as Hugh income earners.
    To then propose to cut these rates is very wrong.

  25. We Want Paul

    What are you talking about? Tax lawyers as a class are not exactly known for their probity and usefulness to society, but surely some precision is the least you could provide.

  26. H, yes i get you… but still we’re talking an incredibly high water mark to defend. I could see Turnbull increasing a majority of 5-10 seats but not here. However good he is or may be, you’re setting the bar high to expect him to increase from 90 seats – it would take a combo of Latham/ Gilliard/ Chikarovsky/ Corbyn/ Antony Weiner as OL to allow that!! Shorten may not be people’s darling around here, but he’s nowhere near that horrific calibre

  27. Re Abbott in Parliamnet. tricot@1022.
    It seems that Abbott won’t be sitting next to BBishop, scorned woman and all of that.
    I think Abbott will remain a problem, as much through habit and a sense of grievance than any plan.

  28. 1119

    The Senate situation actually makes an early election more likely, not less.

    It is likely that there will be reform of the Senate GTV system before the next election.

    If there is then a half-Senate election, there are then potentially 6 angry Senators (Day, Leyonhjelm, Muir, Wang, Lambie and Lazarus) in the Senate for over 3 and a half years (with Madigan also around until the end of June 2017) and the Coalition do not want that if they have a chance of reelection.

    A DD cannot be called after the 11 May 2016 and so there must be a pre-budget election or an unlikely early budget or unlikely (as used to be the case) provisional supply bills.

    Issuing the writs for an election before the final determination of the NSW boundaries on 25/2/2016 would be problematic as messy temporary boundaries would be needed for the next term in NSW (and WA if the writs were issued before 19/1/2016).

    That thus places the first practical day for the issue of the writs for a DD (or House only election) on 25/2/2016.

    This rules out a March election (because the way the weeks fall in March and the requirement that there be a campaign of at least 33 days before a Saturday election).

    Thus a DD is likely in April. The earlier, the more sensible.

  29. [mikehilliard
    …Pretty pathetic how all the LNP voters are trying to regain their cred thru Turnbull.

    Youse lot voted in Abbott]

    Well others may have but I sure as hell did not.

  30. Tom, if Turnbull can put forward a relatively sane budget and get a DD in before a recession hits then this would be very sound thinking. Could he pass Senate reform as well in this timeline?

  31. [Pretty pathetic how all the LNP voters are trying to regain their cred thru Turnbull.]

    Even worse is that they are trying to pretend a Turnbull govt is somehow a different govt.

  32. 1138

    I think an early budget unlikely, unless the Coalition are particularly scared of a budget scare campaign (which the ALP, Greens and other parties should be ready to run).

    The legislation is easy to pass for Senate reform. The issue is AEC readiness (they have to write, set up and test the software for the Senate count) for the count starting on election night. The system needs to be decided upon and the AEC told to start preparing for it ASAP (if this has not happened already) but the legislation itself needs to held off until the last minute because of the aforementioned angry crossbench Senators (potentially all the non-Green crossbench except Xenophon who is pro-reform, so he can elect running-mates).

    If there is a discrepancy between the software and the law that effects the outcome, a risk in a change so close to an election, then there could be a new election for the Senate in one or more states and maybe the territories (but that is less likely with the safer results in the territories).

    If there are fresh Senate elections in 1-5 states (inclusive) then, because of the election timing so close to the 1st of July, the states with the fresh Senate elections would have their Senate terms finishing a year later than those states without fresh elections and this would persist until the next DD.

  33. Informal voters are only one step up from non-voters. They are not helping create a culture on non-attendance, but they are not contributing to deciding the election.

  34. Tom, i’m asking whether the senate as currently comprised is likely to pass senate reform in the next 6 months? presumably the greens or alp would have to line up with the coalition – is this likely?

  35. The pessimism over labor’s prospects is quite extra-ordinay. Turnbull looks good because of the dickhead he replaced and the fact that he has not, as yet, done anything. The game isn’t even afoot yet. Though I must say, just listening to a snatch of Turnbull saying that penalty rates would have to go but nobody would be worse off (hah!) was very enlightening. How much more of that sort of bullshit will people put up with before they realise he’s just a corporate shill.
    If I was a gambling man, I would think 6/1 are fantastic odds.

Comments Page 23 of 24
1 22 23 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *