BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition

The only new poll this week was a strong result for the Coalition, resulting in a minor shift in their favour on what currently passes for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is in a state of flux at the moment, as I’m treating the Liberal leadership change as the starting point for a new series, but don’t yet have enough data points to generate a meaningful trend result. As such, the results shown on the sidebar are simply a weighted average of the six available Turnbull-era poll results, with the one poll result this week (from Essential Research, which was a bad one for Labor) having no more bearing on the total than last week’s. It’s still been enough to knock the Coalition’s two-party reading up 0.4%, and to credit them with gains on the seat projection from New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. I’ve also neglected to update the graphs since last week, and there wasn’t anything new this week in the way of leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,171 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition”

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  1. [The AFL draw is the root of the problem.]

    One thing that won’t be replicated with the draw next year is Carlton playing so many prime time Friday night matches. 🙂

  2. How much longer can we put up with this punishing attitude to asylum seekers?

    [The federal government called in the Australian Federal Police to investigate information leaks from the Nauru detention camp six times in as many months, prompting claims it is pursuing whistleblowers instead of those who allegedly assaulted and raped asylum seekers.

    While Immigration Minister Peter Dutton insists that crimes allegedly committed in the Nauru centre should be dealt with by the island’s local police, his department routinely asks Australia’s top law enforcement body to probe who is disclosing information from inside the camp.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/federal-government-asks-australian-federal-police-to-find-nauru-whistleblowers-20150930-gjyj0i.html#ixzz3ndycpzGA

  3. [A Mercer report commissioned by the Chartered Financial Analysts Institute says people in the top income tax bracket should pay 30 per cent tax on super contributions, double the 15 per cent that now applies.

    “Super tax concessions are skewed toward higher-income earners and that bias should be reduced,” Mercer Australia senior partner and actuary David Knox said.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/earners-over-180000-face-30pc-super-slug-in-mercer-plan-20151002-gjzpl2.html#ixzz3ndzeswxR

  4. [Political Alert
    Political Alert – ‏@political_alert

    Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten is in Sydney and will hold a doorstop on penalty rates at the Prince of Wales Hospital, 11am #auspol]

  5. [I think they said he was born in the Kurdish part of Turkey.]

    I heard a reference to “the Kurdish community in Sydney” being very concerned/angry etc.

    It was only a reporter doing a live cross, but it set me to wondering whether the young man really was of genuine Kurdish ethnicity and, if so, why he would attack a police station under the auspices of ISIS (of which, to date, there is no evidence, I might add).

  6. [ I heard today that the shooter on Friday was Kurdish.

    The Kurds are anti ISIS.

    Seems there might be some more to this story than meets the usual shock jocked eye. ]

    BB. there is lots more to this i think and ISIS may not be the central issue. The Kurds have been badly hurt, are still fighting, and have, to some extent already been betrayed by the attacks on them from the Turks, which the “west” seems to be ignoring or condoning. Makes a bit of a mockery i think of US/Australian objections to the Russians bombing “our baddies” in Syria.

    Its an enormously complex and multi layered situation. And very,very sad that a kid, safe in Australia, would become motivated to throw everything away in a “gesture” over it. The police investigation into this is going to be important and thankfully, looks at the moment like it is being conducted with some sensitivity so they dont end up alienating the people we need to be more inclusive of.

    Both Shorten and Turnbull have been ok on this matter as well.

  7. The teenage shooter in Parramatta was of Iraqi-Kurdish background, from Iran, according to reports.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/crime/parramatta-gunman-identified-teen-fired-multiple-shots-outside-police-hq-on-charles-st/story-fns0kb1g-1227554824011

    I think that it’s the alienation that’s the issue, not any particular religion. In other times and places, people like him might have been attracted to street gangs, extreme leftist movements, extreme right wing militias, the Nazis, the Khmer Rouge, extreme nationalist movements. Maybe bikies or other organised crime if they’re not too weird.

  8. [ I think that it’s the alienation that’s the issue, ]

    Yup. 15 year old maybe having issues with alienation / exclusion looks to religion for some kind of identity he can focus on??

    Its the kind of thing that isnt uncommon at a social level. How many sad, lonely, excluded kids go through a “Jesus Saved Me Born Again” phase at some point to try and get out of that exclusion?? And eventually get over it and actually have happy lives?

  9. Steve777

    [ I think that it’s the alienation that’s the issue, not any particular religion. ]

    Couldn’t agree more! We are doing a great disservice to a generation of troubled teenagers – especially those of middle-eastern extraction – by labeling them all as potential “self-radicalizing terrorists”, rather than treating them as human beings who may themselves be victims of our current ridiculous obsession with terrorism.

  10. Imacca

    Quite true.

    Twenty years ago a teenage daughter of the family next door found Jesus and was saved by him.

    That led to a long estrangement from her family, because unlike her, they had not been born again.

  11. re Teenage shooter in Parramatta

    Until we know enough facts we can only speculate as to motive, so any opinion is valid/invalid in equal measure and the less we know the more likely it would be invalid. We just don’t know. We should be asking questions. Such as, was he being bullied and/or teased? Is it possible he was simply an immature 15 year old being taunted and his desire to be taken seriously caused him strike back with the need to “show them”?

  12. Imacca

    I didn’t say so but during the period, the daughter was a total nutter by any standard, and her sources of support, enticement, conversion and influence were all external to the family …. came from other nutters she had fallen in with.

    Although their creed did not involve violence to others, the captured mindset of the girl seems pertinent to contemporary events.

  13. [“While Australia and the US have reached agreement on the patent exclusivity term for biologics – the new drugs that have been one of the last sticking points on a TPP deal – this agreement has reportedly been rejected by both Chile and Peru…”]

    Not familiar with the source, e.g. How credible:

    http://www.scoop.co.nz

  14. The libs want the tpp to wedge labor with the chinafta. Will make it a lot easier for labor if it dies. Labor does not seem to have got off the ip koolaid and needs to fast.

  15. mexicanbeemer@1902

    Billie

    The larger recruitment agencies hire recruiters with a bachelor degree, often psychology or H.R which makes sense however I’ve seen recruiters whose qualifications have little to no connection to the area that they are recruiting for.

    I could go on an on about this!! Even among “specialist recruiters” it is very common for the recruiter to have absolutely no idea what the people whom they are recruiting do.

    In large companies, these “specialists” often deal with internal HR, who are of equally low caliber and also have no idea about the actual needs of the hiring manager, yet for reasons that escape me they are in a position to dictate terms to the hiring manager.

  16. bemused@1905

    mexicanbeemer@1902

    Billie

    The larger recruitment agencies hire recruiters with a bachelor degree, often psychology or H.R which makes sense however I’ve seen recruiters whose qualifications have little to no connection to the area that they are recruiting for.

    They sound like a good match for the people in HR departments.

    Bemused,

    From years of unpleasant expeirence with internal HR, they come in three types:
    – Recruiters
    – People Management Specialists
    – IR Specialists

    The Recruiter type of HR person make up the overwhelming majority of internal HR types, and by far are the most difficult and unpleasant to deal with. The recruiter type are almost always either totally unqualified or qualified in something completely unrelated to HR. They have an opinion of their own abilities and importance that is completely out of sync with reality, leaving others to clean up the disasters that they cause.

    HR people are often responsible for running payroll. I have no idea why. They are completely and utterly unqualified for this responsibility – they have no idea of the destructive impact of their (often ignorant) actions and inactions have on the integrity of the companies financial accounts. Making matters worse, they have zero care about this impact and wash their hands of the problems, claiming that any problems are “an accounting issue”, leaving “someone from finance” to clean up the mess. They without exception are obstructive of the efforts of “someone from finance” to clean up their mess.

    I have no idea how they have the level of influence and responsibility they have in the corporate world.

  17. Boo. Read the details on the TPP – HARDLY ANY increased market access to the US, but US corporations get to export favorable restrictions on competition they’ve lobbied Congress for, like extended copyright protection, rules on state owned corporations etc.

    Not to mention the fundamentally undemocratic ISDS allowing corporations to sue governments for lost profits.

    CHUCK THIS RUBBISH IN THE BIN!

    HEY ROBB – THEY SAW YOU COMIN. YOU’RE A MUG. THNAKS A PANTLOAD.

    I see they’ve dropped any pretence that this is a ‘free trade’ agreement. its a massive set of new restrictions on trade, designed to advantage large US multinationals – thats what it is.

    http://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/tpp-deal-close-as-us-caves-on-drugs-20151004-gk15j3?stb=twt

  18. If only the government would spend less time and money on protecting us from ‘terrorism’, and more on preparing for the disastrous weather events which will soon be regular features of the year.

  19. grimace

    [ The Recruiter type of HR person make up the overwhelming majority of internal HR types, and by far are the most difficult and unpleasant to deal with. ]

    I was once told by the HR manager for a large company that they specifically did NOT recruit HR staff who “liked” people or had good “people skills”.

    This is because the major work for any HR department is not to hire people – everyone uses recruitment agencies for that these days – it is to fire people as and when required with the minimal amount of fuss and bother (by which they really mean cost to the company).

    Any HR person who becomes too sympathetic to the staff is quietly moved on.

  20. Came across Amanda Vanstone venting on RN last night.

    She sounds a professional broadcaster but those worried about left wing bias in the ABC should cop a bit of her from time to time.

    Last night, among her goading of her guests, were gems like, “The Chinese didn’t like Kevin Rudd” and wtte that Malcolm really, really does understand China ‘cos he mentioned in a speech some time back that “China and Australia were allies in WW2.

  21. [Wayne Swan
    Wayne Swan – Verified account ‏@SwannyQLD

    After cutting billions from education, Libs now want to privatise schools. Education should not be for profit #auspol pic.twitter.com/ecCyMrk9Z2
    3:57 PM – 4 Oct 2015
    69 RETWEETS42 FAVORITES]

  22. grimace

    Payroll is considered a part of the H.R area as its suppose to be responsible for human resources, hence payroll is a key element of that, it is also tied in with ensuring the workplace EBA is being followed.

    On qualifications, I do think recruiters should have to have a basic license that showed they have a certain level of knowledge.

    I get it that in the current market that a recruiter’s job is potentially difficult which highlights why they should be more than just sales people.

  23. CTar1@1941

    WWP

    I heard today that the shooter on Friday was Kurdish.


    I think they said he was born in the Kurdish part of Turkey.

    That doesn’t necessarily make him Kurdish.

    All reports I have heard say he was born in Iran to Iraqi-Kurd parents.
    Curiously, his elder sister flew out to Turkey the day before the shooting. This is being followed up.

  24. [Bangkok: Malaysia has ordered all schools to close for two days as choking haze blanketing a large swathe of south-east Asia is on track to become the worst on record.

    The fog-like grey smoke caused by slash and burn techniques used to clear Indonesian forests has for weeks caused health problems, flight delays and school closures in Singapore and parts of Indonesia and Malaysia.

    Hundreds of thousands of people are suffering acute respiratory infections as the region has struggled to find an effective response to the problem.

    Malaysia’s deputy prime minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi took a swipe at Indonesia as his country cancelled sporting events including a marathon for 30,000 runners and local soccer matches.

    “We hope Indonesia’s commitment is not only on paper or mere statements pleasant to ears, but through implementation which could end all haze problems,” he said.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/asian-haze-set-to-become-worst-on-record-20151004-gk18i9.html#ixzz3neRmmSnr

  25. tricot

    [ … those worried about left wing bias in the ABC … ]

    Oddly enough, this is not something I lay awake at night worrying about 🙂

  26. grimace@1971
    All you say is true.

    Years ago Hugh McKay wrote a column in which he lamented that, whereas we once had a Pay Clerk, now we have a whole HR Department. What do they all do????

    I long for the days of the Pay Clerk when hiring managers dealt direct with candidates.

  27. Player One@1974

    grimace

    The Recruiter type of HR person make up the overwhelming majority of internal HR types, and by far are the most difficult and unpleasant to deal with.


    I was once told by the HR manager for a large company that they specifically did NOT recruit HR staff who “liked” people or had good “people skills”.

    This is because the major work for any HR department is not to hire people – everyone uses recruitment agencies for that these days – it is to fire people as and when required with the minimal amount of fuss and bother (by which they really mean cost to the company).

    Any HR person who becomes too sympathetic to the staff is quietly moved on.

    That I completely believe.

    To bring this discussion back on topic, exceedingly poor management practices like this are a major impediment to a well managed business and productivity gains.

    If business truly wants to improve productivity (as they repeatedly claim), then they would start concentrating on their own poor management practices.

    On only one occasion have I worked with a HR Manager that I have any time for at all. His area of expertise was People Management & Industrial Relations. My dealings with him were around improved people management – structuring job descriptions effectively, making candidates aware of what was expected, workplace culture & practices that nurtured productivity, performance management practices that focused on ensuring employees understood what was expected of them and how to do it, ensuring members of managment became better managers of people, reduction of staff turnover, etc.

    Things like this are the extremely hard yards that a quality HR manager & a quality management team will do. The problem is that it is not short term, it’s not sexy or in vogue and there is no direct link between a particular practice and improvement in the bottom line.

  28. Lordy are people still whinging about the hallowed turf of the MCG, the spiritual home of the AF&L and the Cauldron of the ultimate Character Test?

    The venues are both a plus and a minus for Freo and the Eagles is that they get large numbers of games on their home grounds surrounded by their home crowds plus no travel.

    They don’t talk about the House of Pain for nothing.

    So, this puffs up their home and away results.

    When faced with the reverse situation: travel + hostile crowds + away venue, their stats are much, much worse.

    Bottom line, the final order after the finals, is a reasonably accurate reflection of relative team ability.

  29. bemused@1983

    grimace@1971
    All you say is true.

    Years ago Hugh McKay wrote a column in which he lamented that, whereas we once had a Pay Clerk, now we have a whole HR Department. What do they all do????

    I long for the days of the Pay Clerk when hiring managers dealt direct with candidates.

    The HR Department should NEVER EVER EVER have anything to do with payroll. It’s an extremely complex task and requires a subject area specialist to perform and manage it. Case in point is that no HR person could ever explain what is so hard about payroll – they think that the processing of time sheets, commencement and termination paperwork is the start, middle and end of it.

    I too long for the day when I as a candidate deal with the Hiring Manager, and when I as the Hiring Manager do not have to deal with candidates via HR.

    Sorry about the ranting on HR & payroll, my staff & I spend much of our day cleaning up the sorry mess left by HR people with no friggen idea what they are doing or the implication of doing it poorly.

  30. Except the workplace agreement is administrated by H.R or its suppose to be. You could argue that its a finance function.

  31. From ASRC:
    Living with Border Force
    Melbourne residents may be relieved and a little exalted at seeing off the proposed Border Force community roundup, but there is no such relief for the people in detention who have to live under their harsh rule. Since Border Force assumed an oversight role in detention camps the men women and children locked up under this regime have seen great change. As one man who has been detained for five years, put it. ”I used to live in detention now I live in a military camp”. The Border Force representative when asked in May this year, by the Senate Inquiry Committee to clarify their coming takeover of detention explained it thus. “Border Force will put Serco on steroids”.
    This culture shift places families and children in conditions more akin to a prison camp. The physical manifestation of the militarisation of detention is underway at the Melbourne Immigration Transit Accommodation (MITA) in Broadmeadows where 4.5 metre high fences are currently being erected to encircle the existing camp complex. The only people who have escaped are not asylum seekers but rather people who have overstayed their visa conditions. No asylum seeker has escaped or attempted to escape to justify this new security. Each morning uniformed Border Force staff who were formerly Immigration officers in civilian clothes, stride out around the camp to make their presence felt.
    Meanwhile a new form of psychological warfare is taking place. Guards are under new orders to physically search and scan people constantly even though surveillance cameras are everywhere. Fathers and mothers are scanned then patted down in front of their children before the family leaves the camp for appointments to hospital or trauma counselling. Previously women were not routinely searched by touch.
    Women who have been sexually molested in the Nauru camps now must submit to hands touching their breasts, bottoms and up and down their legs. Some guards have a lighter touch than others. The women are suffering panic attacks and distress and in one instance a husband was knocked to the ground as he protested on behalf of his wife. The men are similarly patted down and then some are sent out in handcuffs for hospital visits. The cuffs are left on even in hospital. Most recently a man was forced to keep handcuffs on as his hand was x-rayed. Another man with serious kidney problems was unable to provide a requested urine sample at a hospital visit because he was handcuffed.
    Rooms are now searched without notice at any time. Children are witness to their parent’s helplessness and denigration. Every night at 11pm and 5am, guards come to rooms for the nightly head counts, banging on doors, shouting the question-how many. Some guards do not wait for a reply but barge straight in. Fathers sit outside the room before 11pm and 5am to forestall the banging which wakes their babies and children. Any wonder the children wet their beds and cry out in terror with bad dreams. The children are stressed because they live in constant fear.
    Both in Darwin and Melbourne in the middle of the night, guards togged up in riot gear have invaded rooms and dragged people out to waiting vans for transfer to planes to Nauru. Children have witnessed this extreme violence with dogs as families are separated, mothers weep and fathers are taken away. In Darwin the past two transfers saw families taken to the Don Dale decommissioned youth prison where women and children were separated from their fathers and husbands. The women and children were forced to strip in front of guards and to shower without doors. They were then given special clothes for the plane journey back to Nauru and escorted up the stairs with guards on either side. We know this happened because of information sent back from Nauru.
    Visits were previously open from 2pm until 7pm each day at the MITA in Melbourne. Visitors were required to produce photo ID, lock their phones and bags away and wear an identity band to enter. Since Border Force took over, visitors are required to book visits for a two hour session only, at least 24 hours in advance. Visitors are required to fill in pages of identity information including drivers licence numbers and car registration. Guards greet us by name because they know us and then request photo ID to establish identity. Visitors are often refused on grounds that the sessions are full when a check reveals maybe only five people in the room. Children stand at the glass doors begging to come in and are turned away. Tables are numbered and visitors were expected to only talk with the nominated people at their table. Even Serco could see this was too ridiculous so it is observed infrequently. But Border Force have militarised the visits room which is the only warm comfortable communal space at the MITA camp.
    One of the best ways to make life bearable for asylum seekers is to give them a chance to go out and “breathe the free air” as they term it. Until Border Force took over, three community women were allowed under strict conditions to take people out regularly without guards. We have done this for three years, quietly without fanfare. No one has escaped or been harmed as they enjoyed a few hours respite from a locked environment. We witnessed at first hand the happiness and joy experienced by people who have been locked up for years. Even the most depressed felt better after a day out.
    Unforgettable it was to see the family whose 4 year old son had been kidnapped and the father tortured in Iraq, who seemed to have forgotten how to smile until they gently stroked the velvety ears of the goats at the Collingwood Children’s Farm. The joy of the children at the Werribee Zoo or the indoor playground on a wet day. The two year old gently tinkling a spoon in a glass in a café in Sydney Road as his mother said, “He has never seen a glass in his life”. The joy of people eating with real cutlery after two years of plastic plates, cups and utensils. Shopping for new born baby clothes- pastel coloured grow suits instead of the SERCO regulation issue of prison grey baby suits. Three years of seeing people remember the simple joys of a normal life, watching parents pleasure as their children played at the adventure playground next to the Children’s hospital.
    All this has been stopped by Border Force without reason. The Border Force culture is to make the lives of people in detention as miserable as possible. Even the children are not exempt from their harsh rules. The children are returned from school at 4pm each day. Like all children after school they are hungry. New orders block their access to dining room or kitchens until 6pm.
    We in Melbourne may have tasted a small victory in stopping Border Force in our streets but this privilege does not exist for the men, women and children in the detention camps. They have no rights to protest against the harshest of conditions and are forced to suffer the brutal culture of the Border Force regime. Spare a thought for those enduring detention camp life under the Border Force regime.

  32. grimace@1986

    bemused@1983

    grimace@1971
    All you say is true.

    Years ago Hugh McKay wrote a column in which he lamented that, whereas we once had a Pay Clerk, now we have a whole HR Department. What do they all do????

    I long for the days of the Pay Clerk when hiring managers dealt direct with candidates.

    The HR Department should NEVER EVER EVER have anything to do with payroll. It’s an extremely complex task and requires a subject area specialist to perform and manage it. Case in point is that no HR person could ever explain what is so hard about payroll – they think that the processing of time sheets, commencement and termination paperwork is the start, middle and end of it.

    I too long for the day when I as a candidate deal with the Hiring Manager, and when I as the Hiring Manager do not have to deal with candidates via HR.

    Sorry about the ranting on HR & payroll, my staff & I spend much of our day cleaning up the sorry mess left by HR people with no friggen idea what they are doing or the implication of doing it poorly.

    I once wrote a WHOLE payroll system so know a little about it. I have also supported other payroll systems.

    The Pay Clerk probably knew his job. As for HR…. 😡

  33. My apologies re the length above but was unable to link with my Ipad!!

    Am so disgusted by this cruelty and harrassment in our name!!

  34. Boerwar

    People are disappointed that the AFL GF was not close and special like the NRL GF. For me who supports The Hawks, i was proud to see a fabulous team build a dynasty in front of our very eyes 😀

  35. GG

    I have the misfortune of knowing a lot of Essendon supporters 🙂

    Even they thought appointing Worsfold what invite that commentary

  36. grimace

    [The HR Department should NEVER EVER EVER have anything to do with payroll.]

    Agree. I’ve worked in several organisations where Payroll was part of the Finance. It worked well.

  37. victoria@1992

    Boerwar

    People are disappointed that the AFL GF was not close and special like the NRL GF. For me who supports The Hawks, i was proud to see a fabulous team build a dynasty in front of our very eyes

    Yes, congratulations to the AFL girly-men on their one sided walkover. 😆

  38. Erasmus@1989

    From ASRC:
    Living with Border Force.

    If you put in two returns, not just one, between paragraphs, it makes your post easier to read.

    Many posters here would look at that mass of text and scroll quickly past, as I did.

    Short, sharp, and sweet is the way to go, when starting out, apart from those on this board who are a delight to read no matter how long the post.

    But even then, they split it up into paragraphs, and often insert bold or italics for things that are important to their argument.

    Have a look at Bushfire Bill’s posts (just one example) to see what to do.

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