Two very different poll results today, one in line with the ReachTEL and Galaxy polls that reported in the immediate wake of the leadership change last week, the other not. In the former category is Newspoll, which had the Coalition with a lead of 51-49 – compared with a Labor lead of 54-46 a fortnight ago – from primary votes of Coalition 44% (up five), Labor 35% (down four) and Greens 11% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull opens his account with an approval rating of 42% and disapproval of 24%, and leads Bill Shorten 55-21 as preferred prime minister. Shorten’s approval rating is down a point to 29%, and his disapproval down four to 54%.
The other poll for the day was Roy Morgan’s extraordinary finding of a 10% shift on two-party preferred, which blows out to 12% under respondent-allocated preferences. This leaves the Coalition with leads of 55-45 on the former measure and 53.5-46.5 on the latter, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up eleven), Labor 29.5 (down seven) and Greens 13% (down three). The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday from 2059 respondents, and appears to have have been conducted only using face-to-face polling, which has traditionally shown a lean to Labor. The Newspoll will have been conducted from Friday to Sunday, from about 1700 respondents contacted through robopolling and online surveying.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has published a result just from its latest weekly polling, together with its normal fortnightly rolling average, and its debut result for Malcolm Turnbull is 50-50 (52-48 in Tony Abbott’s last poll), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 37% (steady) and Greens 11% (steady). Turnbull records a 53-17 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister; 58% approve of the leadership coup, against 24% who disapprove; and 34% say his ascension makes them more likely to vote Coalition, against 14% for less likely. Forty-six per cent expect the government to run a full term versus 26% who expect an early election, and 40% expect the Coalition to win it versus 27% for Labor.
An extended question on Malcolm Turnbull’s personal attributes finds him much more highly regarded as Abbott across the board, with particularly big improvements since the question was last asked of him in February on intelligent (up seven to 81%), capable (up ten to 70%), understanding of the problems facing Australia (up eight to 63%) and visionary (up seven to 7%). His relative weak spots are, on the negative side of the ledger, arrogant (47%) and out of touch with ordinary people (46%), and on the positive, trustworthy (44%) and more honest than most politicians (39%). Bill Shorten’s position has deteriorated across the board since June, the worst movements being on aggressive (up eight to 36%, although maybe that’s a good thing), narrow-minded (up seven to 41%) and capable (down seven to 36%).
Essential also welcomes the Turnbull prime ministership with a question on whether Australia should become a republic – support for which is, interestingly, up five points since February to 39% with opposition down five to 29%, although 32% are in the “no opinion” category. Other questions find 67% support for a national vote on same-sex marriage compared with 21% who say it should be decided by parliament, and 45% choosing “incentives for renewable energy” from a list of favoured approaches to climate change, compared with 11% for an emissions trading scheme, 10% for the government’s direct action policy and 12% for no action required.
[ Personally I think the GST issue is an arguable issue providing it is part of a comprehensive review of all revenue measures and the reasons for changes are fully explained. ]
And some reliable modeling to back it up, not the usual Liberal Hogwarts special. 🙂
With GST its got a lot of downsides. Compensation is once and devalues over time, the increase is forever. And why use a tax where most of what you collect (at least in the first few years) gets churned in compo? And really, do we NEED a full review of the tax system? The biggest problem at the moment is revenue forgone in concessions. Deal with that on its own to deal with revenue over the next 2-3 Budgets and while thats happening get the wonks to debate where to go after that.
[ I say let’s have the debate and let the people decide as is their democratic right. ]
Debate is good, but given the Liberals demonstrated form to date we have to keep an eye out that what they assert is not simply sales bullshit. their Libs, they lie.
When Abbott had his first scare in February, he blamed the chief whip for not keeping an ear to the ground and not letting him know just how bad the numbers were. He can hardly blame Morrisson now rather than Bucholtz.
[Cer White
Posted Wednesday, September 23, 2015 at 5:19 pm
@KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN: SA increased wages overall in exchange for cutting penalty rates. A decent compromise, which Turnbull hasn’t actually said anything about.]
Actually that was the Shoppies Union [De Bruyn and Farrell’s mob] and it was a stupid thing to do.
In the future the employers will change the work conditions of their mainly women and youth workers to even more part-time and casual and thus by-pass the temporary wage increases and simply fight the wage increases in the future after penalty rates have disappeared.
Its a big win for the big retail companies and a long term loss for the shop assistants.
[ Cer White
Posted Wednesday, September 23, 2015 at 6:17 pm | Permalink
@Dave: He said he doesn’t agree with the GST now because the alternatives he came up with more than adequately do the job. I’m not sure if that argument is politically motivated or whether he really believes it ]
You failed to mention his change of mind on a GST up thread when you presenting him as a proponent of a GST.
Naughty.
@strom_m: The centre of the sun just passed south of the equator. Happy spring #equinox! (Autumn for those North)
@Dave: True, but he only changed his mind because he thought his alternatives do the job. I think if he had his way, he’d still prefer a consumption tax. I saw his interview, and he sounded really bitter over it, and when he has to argue against the Liberal Party (because the Liberals currently endorse the GST,) he sounds… unconvincing. And Keating rarely sounds that way. Personally I think he still supports it, and he’s only against it because of political realities.
I work in a mostly non-unionised workplace, in a non-profit. I provide in-home and social support to people with disabilities or aged.n The EBA has juyst one ‘weekend rate’ which is less than $10 extra per hour on Saturdays and Sundays.
While I will work on a Saturday. I don’t say anything, or protest or make any waves. But I never accept Sunday assignments. I have the flexibility to do this as agencies are always looking for good workers. So, all those wanting to abolish Sunday rates, remember, when your turn comes to need someone to get your dinner or change your bedding on a Sunday, be assured it won’t be me.
It’s been 6 days since the incompetent decision making process of the Abbott Govt was terminated.
I’m prepared to give Malcolm’s Govt a chance to get the house back into some sort of professional working order.
@amnestyrefugee: Welcome @TurnbullMalcolm. Don’t forget about the bottom line! @ASRC1 @riserefugee @RANVictoria @racvictoria http://t.co/6IrBNuf0cy
Cer White
especially you.
Cer White@1056
I saw the interview and didn’t get that impression for a minute and I’m a long time watcher etc of Keating – he got me interested in economics etc back in the 1980’s.
To claim Keating as a proponent of a GST and *knowingly* not mention his change view and public announcement of such is pretty ‘disappointing’. An understatement.
Re. The union being accused of shredding documents. How is that different from Sinodonis losing large chunks of his memory? One rule for all I say!
@Puff: I’ll live, thnx.
Shorten made it plain around the time of the TURC accusations that much of his negotiating on the E-W Link was to prevent the CFMEU being involved as the job would go smoother and cheaper. Now, linking CFMEU with the Labor Party is pure smear by Libs. Michaelia is asserting that the CFMEU are criminals and, by association, the Labor Party.
@SpottyIreland: Labor’s #NBN fibre rollout would’ve been cheaper, sooner pilot results show http://t.co/NeenmpHgZS #Turnbull #Auspol http://t.co/lYWN7h7DWX
pritu@1062
Yes. See that and raise the TURC a kathy jackson.
@Dave: I’ll lay out the reason I didn’t mention it VERY clearly. The GST was his PRIMARY solution for the problem he faced, when this was no longer acceptable to him he went looking for an ALTERNATIVE. The fact the GST was his GO TO solution, and the fact he argued for it so passionately would mean this was the tax he thought would BEST DO THE JOB.
The fact he thinks it’s no longer needed because he has alternatives in place does nothing to diminish the idea that Keating thought it was a brilliant solution to the problem. The fact that he no longer endorses the idea solely because his alternatives are in place does not mean he has changed his mind. In other words, I didn’t mention his change of heart because relative to the conversation it is unclear he ever did.
I’m not interested in pushing an agenda, the facts are the GST was introduced to this country by Keating and the Labor party. Although the idea that Keating thought adequate solutions were in place that he no longer needed a GST, brings into questions why he was desperately looking for revenue in that period from 93 to 96.
Cer White
You probably have enough socked away to hire enough nurses etc to keep you comfortable, or to move into a ritzy nursing home, or you are already in one, but you cannot guarantee you will have that wealth forever. You could lose the lot one day and then you won’t live very well at all.
[It’s been 6 days since the incompetent decision making process of the Abbott Govt was terminated.
I’m prepared to give Malcolm’s Govt a chance to get the house back into some sort of professional working order.]
It is … but the man shouldn’t be plastering himself everywhere saying nothing.
“I’m here, and ain’t I prettier than the last guy” doesn’t cut it. His rationale for moving foreshadowed substantial plans. He should have had SOME idea of what those plans were so he could talk about them.
Catchwords mean nothing if they don’t have substance … he’s just another Abbott, just less distasteful on the surface.
@Puff: ‘Already in one’ lol. Very funny.
Cer White
Sorry – it is all just getting you in deeper and it just will not do.
It doesn’t wash.
You held out Keatings support for the GST as one of your main arguments, *knowing* of his change of view and public announcement.
[the facts are the GST was introduced to this country by Keating and the Labor party ]
No. The GST was brought in by howard. Labor discussed bringing it in but rejected it.
I run a small business. I do not support an increase in GST which effectively increases the tax owed by small business such as mone.
Another sports related death.
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/sep/23/yogi-berra-baseball-hall-of-famer-and-new-york-yankees-catcher-dies-at-90
@Dave: Not at all, my arguments are perfectly clear and I reject your assertion that it doesn’t wash. It’s very simple, the idea that Keating thinks the GST is no longer needed due to measures already in place does not, despite your wailing, mean he’s changed his mind on its effectiveness.
And yes, the GST was implemented by Howard but it was a policy thought up and endorsed by Keating.
[Catchwords mean nothing if they don’t have substance … he’s just another Abbott, just less distasteful on the surface.]
Its interesting to see Malcolm seems to have a similar issue appealing to women voters as Abbott did.
In the Essential poll, “Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?”
Turnbull scored 44% from Men but only 30% from Women
Cer White@1074
Keating said in that series of interviews he didn’t support increasing the GST.
Thats relevant – thats the issue.
TBA,
It’s not your money. A business actually collects the money for the ATO. All you have to do is put it in an account and not be tempted to spend it on elocution lessons.
John Howard turned every business in to a tax collector. Makes you proud to be a Liberal TBA.
GG
Thank you so much. I didn’t have the intestinal fortitude to engage with such a sill statement.
Squiggle,
Given the experience of Gillard and the comments of Credlin last night, I am amazed you are surprised.
That’s fine, like I said in my initial post I don’t really have a position on the issue apart from my point about the trending support and the fact that it’s not actually a ‘liberal’ thing and its one of those issues that gets mixed responses within each major party. That is, some liberal guys (or business people) will be against an increase in GST and some labor guys will be for it.
‘silly’ – although it deserved something harsher.
are Galaxy coming up with something?
[Graham Richardson @SkyNewsRicho now4 seconds ago
Tonight on a great #Richo: New Education Minister Senator @Birmo, The @australian’s Nikki Sava and Galaxy pollster David Briggs.@SkyNewsAust]
lizzie,
Stay classy.
Don’t go all Pauline Hansen on us.
TBA
It is not your money. It is your customers’ money which they pay to the ATO for their goods and services tax. You just collect it. You work for the government.
[Given the experience of Gillard and the comments of Credlin last night, I am amazed you are surprised.]
Howdy GG
I’m…. certainly interested.
Actually, I’ll admit to being a bit surprised, I don’t anticipate a big difference between men and women’s views on Turnbull. I’m going to watch that stat with interest.
TBA is a very savvy switched on business man…gulp! 😀
Squiggle,
Howdy to you, too.
Voters vote on self interest. Turnbull has just got the disillusioned and disaffected motivated again. History says, “It doesn’t last long”.
Seriously, the Libs have a problem with women. It didn’t disappear because Turnbull floated to the top.
TrueBlueAussie @1072: I run a small business. I do not support an increase in GST which effectively increases the tax owed by small business such as mone.
That is the correct position for any business owner & operator to adopt (or at least any non-financial business), for reasons explained in my previous post. For small businesses it is even more so since the administrative impost of the GST is about 1% of revenue for small businesses versus about 0.01% for large businesses. So Coles and Woolworths have a cost advantage of about 0.99% of revenue when compared with small competitors, with the results we have seen.
Women in Cabinet, 66 years at a glance.
https://twitter.com/ABCFactCheck/status/646467299122110465/photo/1
Well Dyson Heydon has examined the evidence given by Kathy Jackson at TURC and everything else swirling around her, and decised that she does not need to be recalled.
Sound decision.
http://www.tradeunionroyalcommission.gov.au/About/Documents/PracticeDirections/practice-direction-10.pdf
Did Turnballs always have a speech impediment or is he having problems with ill fitting dentures?
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 1h1 hour ago
Someone has had a word with Malcolm, and he’s now ruling out settling current detained people in Australia.]
So it all of half a day before Malcolm gets hauled back in line?
John Brumby is either another lobbyist or just an idiot.
EG Theodore,
Frogshit!
“The administrative impost of the GST” is a juxtaposition of words that mean absolutely nothing. Comparing apples and oranges is a wank. Small business operate in an entirely different economic space to large and multi national businesses.
TBA is not a put upon battler. He’s just someone that can resist everything except temptation.
@Rex: I’m getting a little tired of people painting support of an increase in GST as red-neck, coalition supporters. I support more Labor people coming out and saying increasing the GST is a good idea, because it puts to rest that stupid position. And once that position is put to rest, we can have a debate about it without each side resorting to mud-slinging.
That was a comment referencing Brumby coming out in support btw. I’m really not surprised that an ex Labor polly is supporting an increase in GST.
Cer White
I don’t care which side of politics they belong to or cheer for. It’s irrelevant as far as I’m concerned.
Rex Douglas
[A large cohort of the people who are poor are actually university students, and they are not poor all their life. We need to rethink just how regressive the GST is.”]
It is a very difficult choice that one. It is exactly the sort of bullshit a lobbyist or an idiot.
Shame, shame , shame!
http://www.couriermail.com.au/questnews/moreton/media-adviser-for-immigration-minister-peter-dutton-found-guilty-of-stealing-election-sign-of-labor-candidate-for-kallangur-shane-king-in-january-state-election-campaign/story-fni9r1i7-1227538704270?sv=fd07c5b0de919a37f9284fabf06bb2fe
Today’s Mumble on recent polling:
[Malcolm Turnbull’s polling “bounce” has so far been modest; the Morgan poll puts the government on 55 per cent, but others have 50 or 51. I’m as interested in these surveys as the next person, but we must remind ourselves they won’t, in the long run, amount to a hill of beans. These boosts are equally enjoyed by new leaders who go on to success, and those who turn out to be duds.
My guess is there’s more springing to go before it settles down.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/blogs/more-poll-bounces-to-come-for-turnbull-now-unpopular-abbott-gone/story-fnvslhoe-1227539875548
And I love his description of Peter Costello:
[Peter is the George Costanza and Colonel Klink of political advice-seeking rolled into one: you do the opposite of what he suggests.]
😆