Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Two new polls makes four altogether under Malcolm Turnbull – including one very odd man out.

Two very different poll results today, one in line with the ReachTEL and Galaxy polls that reported in the immediate wake of the leadership change last week, the other not. In the former category is Newspoll, which had the Coalition with a lead of 51-49 – compared with a Labor lead of 54-46 a fortnight ago – from primary votes of Coalition 44% (up five), Labor 35% (down four) and Greens 11% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull opens his account with an approval rating of 42% and disapproval of 24%, and leads Bill Shorten 55-21 as preferred prime minister. Shorten’s approval rating is down a point to 29%, and his disapproval down four to 54%.

The other poll for the day was Roy Morgan’s extraordinary finding of a 10% shift on two-party preferred, which blows out to 12% under respondent-allocated preferences. This leaves the Coalition with leads of 55-45 on the former measure and 53.5-46.5 on the latter, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up eleven), Labor 29.5 (down seven) and Greens 13% (down three). The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday from 2059 respondents, and appears to have have been conducted only using face-to-face polling, which has traditionally shown a lean to Labor. The Newspoll will have been conducted from Friday to Sunday, from about 1700 respondents contacted through robopolling and online surveying.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has published a result just from its latest weekly polling, together with its normal fortnightly rolling average, and its debut result for Malcolm Turnbull is 50-50 (52-48 in Tony Abbott’s last poll), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 37% (steady) and Greens 11% (steady). Turnbull records a 53-17 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister; 58% approve of the leadership coup, against 24% who disapprove; and 34% say his ascension makes them more likely to vote Coalition, against 14% for less likely. Forty-six per cent expect the government to run a full term versus 26% who expect an early election, and 40% expect the Coalition to win it versus 27% for Labor.

An extended question on Malcolm Turnbull’s personal attributes finds him much more highly regarded as Abbott across the board, with particularly big improvements since the question was last asked of him in February on intelligent (up seven to 81%), capable (up ten to 70%), understanding of the problems facing Australia (up eight to 63%) and visionary (up seven to 7%). His relative weak spots are, on the negative side of the ledger, arrogant (47%) and out of touch with ordinary people (46%), and on the positive, trustworthy (44%) and more honest than most politicians (39%). Bill Shorten’s position has deteriorated across the board since June, the worst movements being on aggressive (up eight to 36%, although maybe that’s a good thing), narrow-minded (up seven to 41%) and capable (down seven to 36%).

Essential also welcomes the Turnbull prime ministership with a question on whether Australia should become a republic – support for which is, interestingly, up five points since February to 39% with opposition down five to 29%, although 32% are in the “no opinion” category. Other questions find 67% support for a national vote on same-sex marriage compared with 21% who say it should be decided by parliament, and 45% choosing “incentives for renewable energy” from a list of favoured approaches to climate change, compared with 11% for an emissions trading scheme, 10% for the government’s direct action policy and 12% for no action required.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,366 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. For the first time in ages I watched some 7.30 tonight and saw Morrison interviewed.

    There’s a song by NOFX called The Idiots are Taking Over and his interview made me think of it.

    [what are we left with?
    a nation of god-fearing pregnant nationalists
    who feel it’s their duty to populate the homeland
    pass on traditions
    how to get ahead religions
    And prosperity via simpleton culture]

  2. Let’s say Morrison on 7.30 was only just a small, weeny bit hopeless.

    Don’t forget he is Turnbull’s No1 pick for probably the 2nd highest, 2nd most VIP position in the government.

    So with the 7.30 i/v Mal himself moved a step closer to goin down the gurgler. No doubt more n better results tomorrow when Morrison faces the cameras again with more waffle.

  3. [Not only property taxes but the Ramsey price rule – wow.

    Someone will start channeling Joe Stiglitz next…]

    Well I saw your tacit MMT and BoE research note references and decided to call in some friends 🙂

  4. Roger Miller@1346

    (input_cost*0.9 + labour_cost)*1.1 — what is you problem consumer pays?

    (input_cost + (Labor_cost*1.1) — cost on labor; we have a problem.

    Same result different point of view.

    This is not how gst works.

    cost to the consumer is always (input cost + labour cost)*1.1

    Labour is just another input.
    So it is really –
    (cost + profit margin) = selling price ex-GST
    (cost + profit margin) * 1.1 = selling price inc GST

    Fred needs to do a separate exercise to work out what price he can sell his goods at to cover all his costs and achieve an acceptable margin ex-GST.

    Then he can deal with GST as a separate and simple exercise.

  5. Morrison apparently cannot see that spending too much and not raising enough revenue are two sides of the same problem.
    Just like some here cannot see that gst is applied at the same rate for any of the costs of making a supply whether that cost is for goods or sevices or labour.

  6. Roger Miller @1360

    I too found Morrison’s performance tonight extremely disappointing – I had thought that having a non-lawyer in the role might help, but he seemed just to be ignorant. I do note the idiot interviewer prioritized questions about Tony the Self Wedging Budgie Smuggler before discussing the economy, which probably didn’t help.

    Spending too much and not levying enough taxation are two separate problems but are related in that they both arise when it is appropriate to remove money from the private sector. It currently isn’t appropriate to do that given the parlous state of the private sector, notwithstanding the passage of time since the GFC: fiscal contraction is appropriate (only) when the current (or near term predicted) state of the economy makes it appropriate, not at some arbitrary time offset from a prior fiscal stimulus.

  7. [I do note the idiot interviewer prioritized questions about Tony the Self Wedging Budgie Smuggler before discussing the economy, which probably didn’t help.]

    Cos asking a treasurer about their potential dishonesty is never a fair thing is it.

    The guy is the treasurer of the nation and he has been accused of dishonesty. She has to ask those questions if only to give Morrison a chance to answer (or avoid) them.

    Night.

  8. jules @1363

    It’s about the order in which questions were asked, not the set of questions asked.

    A barrister that proceeded with questioning in that order would get nowhere, as happened.

    Barristers (unless incompetent buffoons) usually first ask questions that even a hostile witness should have no trouble answering – it draws them in and increases the chance of an overly forthright answer when a difficult question is asked…

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