Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Two new polls makes four altogether under Malcolm Turnbull – including one very odd man out.

Two very different poll results today, one in line with the ReachTEL and Galaxy polls that reported in the immediate wake of the leadership change last week, the other not. In the former category is Newspoll, which had the Coalition with a lead of 51-49 – compared with a Labor lead of 54-46 a fortnight ago – from primary votes of Coalition 44% (up five), Labor 35% (down four) and Greens 11% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull opens his account with an approval rating of 42% and disapproval of 24%, and leads Bill Shorten 55-21 as preferred prime minister. Shorten’s approval rating is down a point to 29%, and his disapproval down four to 54%.

The other poll for the day was Roy Morgan’s extraordinary finding of a 10% shift on two-party preferred, which blows out to 12% under respondent-allocated preferences. This leaves the Coalition with leads of 55-45 on the former measure and 53.5-46.5 on the latter, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up eleven), Labor 29.5 (down seven) and Greens 13% (down three). The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday from 2059 respondents, and appears to have have been conducted only using face-to-face polling, which has traditionally shown a lean to Labor. The Newspoll will have been conducted from Friday to Sunday, from about 1700 respondents contacted through robopolling and online surveying.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has published a result just from its latest weekly polling, together with its normal fortnightly rolling average, and its debut result for Malcolm Turnbull is 50-50 (52-48 in Tony Abbott’s last poll), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 37% (steady) and Greens 11% (steady). Turnbull records a 53-17 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister; 58% approve of the leadership coup, against 24% who disapprove; and 34% say his ascension makes them more likely to vote Coalition, against 14% for less likely. Forty-six per cent expect the government to run a full term versus 26% who expect an early election, and 40% expect the Coalition to win it versus 27% for Labor.

An extended question on Malcolm Turnbull’s personal attributes finds him much more highly regarded as Abbott across the board, with particularly big improvements since the question was last asked of him in February on intelligent (up seven to 81%), capable (up ten to 70%), understanding of the problems facing Australia (up eight to 63%) and visionary (up seven to 7%). His relative weak spots are, on the negative side of the ledger, arrogant (47%) and out of touch with ordinary people (46%), and on the positive, trustworthy (44%) and more honest than most politicians (39%). Bill Shorten’s position has deteriorated across the board since June, the worst movements being on aggressive (up eight to 36%, although maybe that’s a good thing), narrow-minded (up seven to 41%) and capable (down seven to 36%).

Essential also welcomes the Turnbull prime ministership with a question on whether Australia should become a republic – support for which is, interestingly, up five points since February to 39% with opposition down five to 29%, although 32% are in the “no opinion” category. Other questions find 67% support for a national vote on same-sex marriage compared with 21% who say it should be decided by parliament, and 45% choosing “incentives for renewable energy” from a list of favoured approaches to climate change, compared with 11% for an emissions trading scheme, 10% for the government’s direct action policy and 12% for no action required.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,366 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Does the shift in Morgan indicate that in a face to face poll there was some reluctance to be seen to support Abbott, (the shy Tory) that has now dissappeared for Turnbull, (at least until we see what his policies are.)

  4. I’d love to know what William’s thoughts are on Morgan because it seems to be the anti-essential. It over-reacts to everything and seems to pick up on day to day emotional fluff. How do you design a poll to do this even if you were trying to do so?

  7. The press release says this:

    [This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face interviewing last weekend …]

    Whereas it traditionally says this:

    [This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekend …]

    Of course, if just face-to-face interviewing as it seems to be saying, then there’s nothing “multi-mode” about it. My best guess is that the lack of a reference to SMS is in error.

  8. Morning all. Does the difference between these polls reflect the degree to which they included asking people after Turnbull’s cabinet announcement? He didn’t just announce a new cabinet – he reformed the machinery of governemnt and indicated mutliple new policy directions. It was a significant speech. I’d bet Turnbull picked up an additional 3-4% 2PP from it.

  9. How do we measure Lib voters who ‘preferred’ Labor but won’t vote that way at the election? There’d be some of that in these early polls. I’m guessing of course but these numbers might be slightly flattering to Labor.

  10. I suspect you are right – the previous poll was face to face – they may have started with last week’s media release and missed the reference.

    The bigger question is whether to include in an aggregation. I am leaning to exclusion if it looks like a complete outlier.

  12. Today in the SMage you can read a mild complaint by Abbott that ScoMo failed to warn him about the coming challenge on the Friday beforehand. (ScoMo claims he warned the office.)

    The challenge was widely-known about by then. I had heard about it a few days beforehand from a credible source and had posted about it on here on (I think) the Thursday (albeit I had heard it was happening after Canning rather than before). If the news had reached someone as remote from the action as me, it must have been all over Canberra.

    So my theory is that Credlin and co were all over it, and were getting info from ScoMo and others, but reached the conclusion a few days beforehand that the situation was hopeless. So they decided not to tell Abbott about it.

    In other words: a real life “Downfall” scenario. Except that, in Downfall, Hitler didn’t take his top off and dance on a marble-topped coffee table until it broke. More’s the pity.

  13. Sam Dastyari

    Who came up with the BRILLIANT idea of owning your own credit card number,as you own your mobile phone number

    Bring it on!

  14. The first word from the resentful kid.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/leadership-spill-tony-abbott-says-scott-morrison-never-warned-anyone-of-challenge-20150921-gjrtg6.html

    Bill feels successful.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/i-wanted-to-replace-tony-abbott-opposition-leader-bill-shorten-on-pm-leadership-spill-20150921-gjrt7g.html

    Brandis won’t have things all his own way now. Good.
    http://www.theage.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/malcolm-turnbull-clips-george-brandis-online-piracy-wings-20150921-gjrsbm.html

    Farewell Joe Hockey, champion of cheap politics
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/farewell-joe-hockey-champion-of-cheap-politics-20150921-gjre7g.html

  15. Pascoe doesn’t think much of Hockey.

    [Hockey, as shadow treasurer, put the prospects of winning government ahead of good policy, ahead of the nation. My test of his integrity remains the little matter of FBT changes for motor vehicles, alias novated leases.

    Labor’s proposal in the 2013-14 budget to effectively end the novated lease distortion were completely reasonable and responsible. A fortunate minority were enjoying a tax minimisation lurk. It cost the rest of us billions for no good reason. It also provided a rich living for what is euphemistically called the salary packaging industry – it could also be known as the packaging branch of the tax minimisation industry.

    In what looked like a knee-jerk reaction as part of the Abbot-Hockey era of Total Opposition, Hockey promised to revoke the changes.

    The tax minimisation industry loved that idea and the Australian Salary Packaging Industry Association subsequently donated a quarter of a million dollars to the Liberal Party.

    Hockey kept his promise to scrap the changes. Cheap politics – 1, national best interest – 0.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/farewell-joe-hockey-champion-of-cheap-politics-20150921-gjre7g.html#ixzz3mPMQqHQS
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    I’m still in hospital with a 50/50 chance of being discharged today.
    I must be cursed! I have had day surgery on only two occasions and both times finished up with complications that caused hospital admission.
    Politics has certainly entered a new phse now where policy – real policy – will come to the fore as it is developed. Shorten leadership issues will be pushed by the “febrile” media but they will only be a sideshow.

  17. Re Turnbull on 7.30 last night.

    Yes he waffles, thinks with his mouth open and looks likely sometimes to talk himself into trouble that he won’t be able to talk himself out of.

    But he also came across as something very refreshing: a leader who got there more or less on his own steam and who isn’t at the beck and call of anyone. Not factions, not vested interest groups and certainly not Murdoch and the shock jocks. That’s why he seems able to speak so freely and to take risks in his conversation.

    He’s the first PM I’ve seen since Hawke who has this advantage. I don’t think he is nearly as smart as Hawke (not many are). But he has a golden opportunity. Let’s see what he can do with it. I’m getting the feeling that existing positions on climate change and SSM aren’t necessarily going to hold him back too much.

    But he has to stay brave. It won’t be easy.

  18. Best wishes BK. You are correct – we are entering a new and saner period post-Abbott. Hopefully it will be a long time before Australia considers electing a religious fundamentalist as PM again. The scary bit is how many of them still remain in parliament?

  19. Michaela might turn out to be another JulieB.

    [Malcolm Turnbull’s new Employment Minister, Michaelia Cash, is already experienced in wrestling with unions.

    Before she entered politics in 2008, Senator Cash worked in Perth as an industrial lawyer for the national law firm Freehills.

    More recently, as the then assistant minister for immigration and border protection, Senator Cash, 45, battled with the union movement during a review of the integrity of 457 working visas for foreigners.

    Advertisement

    Unions criticised her for not going far enough to restrict foreign labour and the exploitation of vulnerable workers. She criticised them for running a “fraudulent campaign”.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/unions-fear-michaelia-cash-will-succeed-where-eric-abetz-failed-in-achieving-industrial-reform-20150920-gjr2r8.html#ixzz3mPOJzQdq
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  21. [Infrastructure chiefs across the nation have been buoyed by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s enthusiasm for urban planning, including Jamie Briggs’ appointment as the first Minister for Cities and the Built Environment and the government’s new willingness to consider public transport investment.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-governments-cities-portfolio-what-does-it-mean-and-will-it-work-20150921-gjr5ub.html#ixzz3mPPhwoGP
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  22. I became very angry with Tony Jones last night (what’s new?). He set himself up as Counsel Assisting TURC and pushed for answers which were not relevant to the audience questions.

    IMO Shorten very impressive, engaging the questioners. Some of the criticisms on twitter seemed right off the mark, to me.

  25. Pascoe spot on about the novated lease tax break: which has become particularly ludicrous now that we are moving into an era in which no cars will be manufactured in Australia (hence no real employment benefit from a scheme through which people are subsidised to regularly replace their cars). This should be low-hanging fruit for a lover of public transport like Malcolm.

    And I say this as someone who has derived significant benefits from the scheme over the years.

  28. smh.com.au/entertainment/… via @smh who is this journo? I watched unusual! seemed to me Bill did very well from the applause from audience

  30. Rocket work tour – Federal Division of Mayo

    1. Many felt SA might get a better go under Turnbull, felt neglected by Sydney-centric Abbott
    2. Several people said it was a positive to have someone who at least talked about looking forward instead of rehashing old battles of the past.
    3. Otherwise similar sense of relief at Abbott going.

    BK – Jamie Briggs elevation has obviously put you in hospital. I think maybe we should send someone dear to your heart, Nurse Sophie ( retraining after politics), to tend to you!

    I am now in Braddon post new ministry.

  31. mari

    I am asking the same question. Seems the media are determined to paint Bill as shifty, untrustworthy and dull.

    [He needed to bring his A game. So how did he do? Hard to say exactly, because it’s still hard to tell what Shorten’s A game actually is.

    Given history, we can take as a given his comfort and confidence with the private part of politics – backrooms, behind closed doors, where deals are done and rivals rounded on – but the public Shorten can seem a less certain creature all together.

    There is Zinger Bill – who can make you sit up straight with a “Did he really say that?” start – and Zonked Bill – who can put you to sleep with such ease he should probably be listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. For his solo Q&A appearance, Zinger Bill was mercifully kept in a box like a ventriloquist’s dummy banished from the act when it dawned the audience was after gravitas rather than a funny little doll with droopy legs cracking jokes. Zonked Bill was present for more of the evening than was probably wise; you wouldn’t have wanted to operate heavy machinery after some of his answers.

    And then, at last, there was the best of Bill, using the latter part of the show to deliver something approaching passion on issues where he knows Labor does better whatever the political landscape – education, for example, and marriage equality and climate change – though those latter two are now rather more up for grabs than they were a week ago.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/qa-recap-solo-guest-bill-shorten-survives-barrage-of-questions-on-malcolm-turnbull-20150922-gjrtmz.html#ixzz3mPXaIawB
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  32. From the Daily TurdBurgler, intervieweing Tony ‘I wont be sniping’ Abbott

    [He (ScoMo) said Mr Abbott had thrown then treasurer Joe Hockey “under the bus” by offering Mr Morrison the deputy leader’s role, and therefore his choice of portfolio including Treasurer, in a bid to save his own job.

    “Not true, not true. Scott never warned anyone,” Mr Abbott said yesterday. “He certainly never warned me. I spoke to him on (the) Friday — not a hint of a warning. So I’m afraid Scott badly misled people. I was doing what I could to save the government, that’s what I was doing.”

    During Mr Morrison’s interview with Hadley — during which the radio host ­repeatedly asked him to swear on a Bible — he said: “I said on Friday to the Prime Minister’s ­Office I thought things were pretty febrile and they should be on high alert.”]

    [Mr Morrison’s office yesterday reiterated­ his version of events.

    Despite taking a few big hits in the surf yesterday, Mr Abbott said he was looking forward to spending more time in his Warringah electorate. He praised Mr Hockey’s service as treasurer and noted Mr Turnbull had yet to make any changes to economic policy.

    “Joe will be judged much more kindly in the months and years ahead than he was when he was actually doing the job,” Mr Abbott said.

    “The fact that no policy settings have been changed testifies to the soundness of what the government was doing and testifies to the soundness of Joe’s stewardship.”

    Asked if it begged the question why there was a leadership change last Monday, Mr Abbott said: “That’s a question you’ll have to ask Malcolm. The only question I’ve asked myself is how do I catch more waves.”

    Summing up a turbulent week since being removed from office, Mr Abbott said: “Politics is a game of snakes and ladders. I’ve had a few snakes and I’ve had a few ladders.”

    Asked if he would contest the next election, he said he had not made up his mind: “There’ll be more to say about that in the not too distant future.”]

  36. Alan Jones is pouring cold water on this poll as we speak: not very encouraging for the coalition, and with the margin of error could be 52-48 the other way.

  40. Lizzie

    Much of the criticism of shorten to date is largely personal and not based on policy disagreements. Tony Abbott in opposition did not announce much on policy either but he got a free run with little to no criticism in the media.

  43. Morning all.

    Get better soon BK, and lizzie is doing a good job in your absence.

    Having seen the last week, esp the last few days I agree with whoever it was who said the other day that MT is doing a crash through or crash approach, presumably to keep the jackals at bay. Trying to keep the Nats, disaffected reactionary majority and the fringe dwellers like Cory must be like herding cats, which could be achieved so long as he looks like a winner.

  44. [With allegations flying about, pro-Truss forces admit the 66-year-old leader is considering his position and could stand down early next year, but they say Mr Joyce has “misread” the party room if he thinks he can force the pace.

    According to one Nationals source, Mr Joyce was telephoned by Mr Turnbull on the Sunday evening before the leadership challenge, and had given the plan “two thumbs up”. Mr Joyce denied he gave the plan such an endorsement.

    Fairfax Media understands Mr Turnbull and new Treasurer Scott Morrison are planning to bring forward the Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Outlook from its usual December release to reset key policy directions, with education and taxation among the areas set for change.

    News of that comes as the head of the independent Productivity Commission lashes the Coalition for failing to respond to reports it commissioned up to two years ago.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turbulent-times-ahead-despite-turnbulls-strong-start-20150921-gjrhvi.html#ixzz3mPdkIEG9
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  46. [By the end, Tony Abbott couldn’t govern. Obliged to respond to a report it had commissioned, his cabinet froze. Pressuring it from one side were small businesses and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, the body charged with protecting consumers and advancing competition. They backed the finding of the Harper competition review, that it had become next to impossible to successfully prosecute big businesses for monstering small ones.

    Pressuring it from the other side were Australia’s biggest businesses, among them the big banks and Woolworths and Wesfarmers (which owns Coles). Backing them were the Business Council, some big-business-friendly unions, and the Australian Labor Party.
    …
    Labor’s pro-big business stance is easier to make sense of when you realise that big businesses are more unionised than small ones. Unions want them to take out non-unionised competitors.

    Turnbull’s cabinet is going to have to make a decision, and not only about that. There are scores of completed inquiries that have been piling up in Abbott’s in-tray, among them the financial system inquiry which reported in December. With Billson out of the cabinet, and with Labor almost guaranteeing not to attack him, he’ll find it easier to back the big guys.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/competition-policy-review-will-turnbull-back-the-big-guys-20150920-gjr2nf#ixzz3mPgDjTib
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  47. lizzie
    [According to one Nationals source, Mr Joyce was telephoned by Mr Turnbull on the Sunday evening before the leadership challenge, and had given the plan “two thumbs up”. Mr Joyce denied he gave the plan such an endorsement. ]

    I’ve read the article up to here three times and I can’t tell what “plan” is referring to.

  48. Sprocket

    That picture is cruel. Abbott has lost even his boyish figure. Obviously did not get enough time on the bike with the AFP.

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