Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Two new polls makes four altogether under Malcolm Turnbull – including one very odd man out.

Two very different poll results today, one in line with the ReachTEL and Galaxy polls that reported in the immediate wake of the leadership change last week, the other not. In the former category is Newspoll, which had the Coalition with a lead of 51-49 – compared with a Labor lead of 54-46 a fortnight ago – from primary votes of Coalition 44% (up five), Labor 35% (down four) and Greens 11% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull opens his account with an approval rating of 42% and disapproval of 24%, and leads Bill Shorten 55-21 as preferred prime minister. Shorten’s approval rating is down a point to 29%, and his disapproval down four to 54%.

The other poll for the day was Roy Morgan’s extraordinary finding of a 10% shift on two-party preferred, which blows out to 12% under respondent-allocated preferences. This leaves the Coalition with leads of 55-45 on the former measure and 53.5-46.5 on the latter, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up eleven), Labor 29.5 (down seven) and Greens 13% (down three). The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday from 2059 respondents, and appears to have have been conducted only using face-to-face polling, which has traditionally shown a lean to Labor. The Newspoll will have been conducted from Friday to Sunday, from about 1700 respondents contacted through robopolling and online surveying.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has published a result just from its latest weekly polling, together with its normal fortnightly rolling average, and its debut result for Malcolm Turnbull is 50-50 (52-48 in Tony Abbott’s last poll), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 37% (steady) and Greens 11% (steady). Turnbull records a 53-17 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister; 58% approve of the leadership coup, against 24% who disapprove; and 34% say his ascension makes them more likely to vote Coalition, against 14% for less likely. Forty-six per cent expect the government to run a full term versus 26% who expect an early election, and 40% expect the Coalition to win it versus 27% for Labor.

An extended question on Malcolm Turnbull’s personal attributes finds him much more highly regarded as Abbott across the board, with particularly big improvements since the question was last asked of him in February on intelligent (up seven to 81%), capable (up ten to 70%), understanding of the problems facing Australia (up eight to 63%) and visionary (up seven to 7%). His relative weak spots are, on the negative side of the ledger, arrogant (47%) and out of touch with ordinary people (46%), and on the positive, trustworthy (44%) and more honest than most politicians (39%). Bill Shorten’s position has deteriorated across the board since June, the worst movements being on aggressive (up eight to 36%, although maybe that’s a good thing), narrow-minded (up seven to 41%) and capable (down seven to 36%).

Essential also welcomes the Turnbull prime ministership with a question on whether Australia should become a republic – support for which is, interestingly, up five points since February to 39% with opposition down five to 29%, although 32% are in the “no opinion” category. Other questions find 67% support for a national vote on same-sex marriage compared with 21% who say it should be decided by parliament, and 45% choosing “incentives for renewable energy” from a list of favoured approaches to climate change, compared with 11% for an emissions trading scheme, 10% for the government’s direct action policy and 12% for no action required.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,366 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  2. @Guy: I don’t know what you’re implying, it IS actually all Hawke’s fault. Keating made his position clear in a recent one hour interview he had with the ABC.

  6. [Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics · 1m1 minute ago
    Morrison is going to be captured by John Fraser, while Costello and Cormann are in his other ear, and it’s going to be hilarious]

  9. Cer White,

    The SA Govt did not reduce penalty rates. Business SA and the retail union agreed to a proposal for penalty rates to be reduced in exchange for an increase in regular hours wages. Businesses had to sign up to the deal.

    Guess how many businesses have taken up the offer. Spoiler alert it’s more than -1 and less than 1.

    There is no evidence that decreasing wages increases employment.

  10. Guytaur

    If Hawke had left just 6 months earlier, Keatings prime ministership would have been far more successful. He could have won 1993 more easily and have been in with a shot for 1996.

    The GST may have been wanted by keating, but I think he changed his mind after 1985. I don’t think he was faking his stance against Hewson.

    That said, the GST is a regressive tax and would be better if being replaced with a business cash flow tax (direct debit tax), which would have a much more neutral form of taxation.

    It may make projected surpluses harder to calculate, but I honestly do not care about that personally.

    The whole black/white “debt is evil. Surpluses are amazing” meme was coined by howards first budget in 1996 and continued under labor between 2010 and 2012 – it really dumbed down the electorate.

    I would much rather have had 11 deficit budgets and have money spent on infrastructure than have 11 surpluses and have what nothing howard gave us. Not only that but Costello cancelled keatings superannuation rise to 15% and did not tax miners, if he didn’t do what he did and is so proud of then we would be in much stronger shape today. The fact of the matter is our economy today is a hole in the ground purely ringed by an expensive property bubble that could burst any month now.

  12. Morrison and Turnmbull seem to be moving towards an overhaul of the tax system. You’ll note that the announcement about “too much expenditure” plays nicely to the Lib urgers. However, it also hid the announcement to review tax concessions, negative gearing and Superannuation lurks.

    If the new regime intends to be serious about reform and eliminating loop holes, then I say fill your boots. In this sort of package welfare reform as part of the package is a doable initiative.

    I hope they show real courage and follow through.

  17. I don’t know that Turnbull is doing himself any favours by going on every show that airs … he isn’t actually saying anything other than … I am an optimist and ALP isn’t (and misrepresenting Shorten when he can.

    If he wants to impress people, he should actually have some content to present.

    It was ironic that he admonished Speers today, saying that he was talking “form not function” but then went on to talk basically about form with no substance.

  21. vic,

    It could be like 83 where Hawke and Keating had to convince their own supporters in the Union movement to get on board. We all remember the Accord where dollwr wages were forgone and replaced with benefits etc.

    At the minute, people are rorting the tax system. That has to stop. Attitudes to paying tax have to be revised. This is most likely to affect the Lib constituency. Traditionally, they are a bunch of cost plusers and rent seekers.

    Whether Turnbull and Morrison are up to the task is the question that does not yet have an answer.

    But, as I said, I hope they at least give it a burl. Turnbull isn;t there to be an amecdote in history. He’ll be desperate to be seen as a significant PM. He’ll need a record of reform success to achieve that.

  26. [The ABC is preparing to begin negotiations with the government for its next three-year funding arrangement, due to be announced in next year’s budget. There is renewed hope within the broadcaster – buoyed by comments by new Communications Minister Mitch Fifield – that some extra funds may flow to the ABC following Mr Abbott’s removal.

    One option would be for the government to maintain the $250 million in cuts over five years handed down last year but soften them by introducing new funding for specific initiatives. These could include tied funding for regional news or Australian drama, both of which would be popular with the Nationals and the general public.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abc-hopes-for-funding-boost-as-malcolm-turnbull-ends-culture-wars-20150923-gjt7sm.html#ixzz3mXx9MjLO
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  28. Briefly@924, my memory may not be correct, but regarding a multi-faceted employment point , your sounds like Working Nation.

    Regarding Turnbull, today has been interesting:
    An announcement re the Carmichael coal mine.
    A delay/suspension of the taxation white paper.
    No negotiation on the ChFTA, with Turnbulls attack on Shorten
    The article in the Age re Sunday penalty rates.

    Day 8 of the ‘new government’

  29. Well, well, well…apparently, Australia has a spending problem rather than a revenue problem – at least if you believe Scott Morrison.

    Fortunately, a lot of people know better. 27% of GDP on tax collection (across all levels of Government) is one of the lowest in the OECD, which has a weighted average of 34.1% of GDP as tax collection.

    The evidence is clear: Australia can well afford to look at the top end of town for revenue, rather than squeezing pennies out of the poorest among us, and still have a wealthy, active economy.

    And we can even do it without squeezing hardworking Australians. Multinational corporations, notorious tax cheats one and all, are skating tens of billions of dollars of profits out of the country to avoid paying taxes each year – $100bn through Singapore in 2013 alone.

    If you want to balance the Budget, start there, Mr. Morrison!

  30. The Libs also think they have tarnished the unions enough that they can strip Sunday penalty rates.

    The attack on the unions by Abbott has reinvigorated the movement instead of killing it.

    Every time he said CFMEU he sounded idiotic. Now Malcolm has taken up the mantra.

    They’ll find out the hard way, methinks!

  33. [964
    Cer White

    As a country Aus desperately needs increased competition]

    The biggest factor anti-competitive force in the Australian economy is not labour flexibility, it is the intense monopolisation of key product markets. The dominance of a very small number of players in banking, insurance, transport, retailing of nearly every kind, telecommunications, mass media and various supply chains, including packaging materials, construction materials, food and apparel, automotive products and allied services, electricity is by far the most significant restraint on competition in the Australian economy. To this, we should add the complex of forces that keep land prices at insanely high levels.

  34. I think it’s ok for Malcolm to appear in his first days and explain to all and sundry his new cabinet decision making process.

    No more kitchen cabinets or CoS power trips is a good thing.

  36. Guytaur @996

    Capitalism of the good and services (output) producing kind is fueled by sales – more sales means more and better capitalism in doing what it is supposed to do (produce output efficiently).

    GST directly taxes sales, and as someone said “if you want less of something, put a tax on it”, so in that sense GST is a direct attack on capitalism at its fuel supply.

    Moreover, it happens that GST extracts private wealth most heavily from those with the greatest propensity to spend, and is thus in addition an indirect attack on sales.

    Finally, financial “capitalism” – not actually capitalism at all – is fueled by debt rather than by sales (i.e. it is a completely different thing to goods and services capitalism). The Australian GST exempts financial services and thus distorts economic activity away from goods and services capitalism and towards financial services.

    Hence one should support a GST (and a GST increase) if one prefers to have more private debt (in particular household debt) and financial services and less goods and (non-financial) services and less capitalism.

    Conversely if one is in favour of capitalism (in the formation and operation of goods and services businesses) one should support reduction or even elimination of GST.

    It is obvious why the financial services industry desires to increase the GST – it adds more fuel to their fire. It is not at all obvious why capitalists and business founders should be anything other than implacably opposed to it.

  37. Well there is a large revenue shortfall.

    I also get to see a large number of people’s tax returns and it is very common to see people with huge houses and wide investment portfolios earning taxable incomes that are pitiful due to the “legitimate “deductions and tax planning available these days.

    I suppose the old regime would have paoid them to pay their taxes. A sort of Direct Action for Taxes.

  38. TPOF@793

    Victoria @ 784

    Is it just be or is Shorten more confident since Turnbull became PM. He is doing very well during this presser re Higher Education


    It was far more difficult for Shorten and Labor to manage Abbott than people imagine. While it was easy enough to see the booby traps that Abbott laid because he was as subtle as an elephant, avoiding them was a different story. Obviously Labor had to avoid rising to the bait. But it also had to lose a lot of skin with its base by not taking a stand against some of Abbott’s proposals that had public appeal but didn’t sit well with Labor. On top of that, any serious policy proposals carried the enormous risk of giving Abbott and the Negatives food to attack the Opposition on.

    It was excellent political insight and hard work to avoid Abbott and his mob. Like making your way through a field of barbed wire without getting too many scratches and infected cuts.

    I suspect Shorten (and Labor) are far happier now to be fighting on their preferred ground, which is public policy. Which is why they are more upbeat.

    I think, and certainly hope, that history will give Shorten Labor a lot more credit than they are currently getting for their role in guiding the most unprincipled, ruthless, vindictive, reckless, and dangerous PM we have ever had, to commit political seppuku.

    In particular, the superficially disillusioned among Labor voters need to understand just how difficult and necessary a game that was to play, to stop with the puritanical adolescent whining about the shitty reality of hard political compromise, and be forever grateful Shorten did manage it okay, brilliantly even. (With due credit to the Greens, and especially the other cross-benchers, in the senate for their part in all this. Labor couldn’t have done it on their own, they needed a few extra votes.)

    It is clear that the Labor caucus made the right choice in installing Shorten against the wishes of the party members. (No disrespect at all to Albanese, who is a good fighter and Labor man. But he was not the right person for the job.)

    As always, underestimate Shorten at your peril.

    Some of Howard’s opponents did, and got their arses repeatedly handed to them on a plate.

    It was also Howard who said the times suit him.

    Well these times look like suiting Shorten’s temperament and abilities. He has managed to create a public debate space that is far friendlier to policy than might be good for the Tories. No small feat in the circumstances.

    Post-Abbottoclypse I still say Shorten should stay in the job, and Labor would be mad to even think about switching leaders.

  39. [Renewed vigour re union bashing relates to CFMEU Qld shredding truckload of documents]

    I know. But he/they keep saying it is the “ALP and the CFMEU” and I don’t know that the electorate in general understands what it is all about. It just sounds like sloganeering.

  40. Cer White

    Do you think there would have been any chance that keating could have kept his promise on the LAW tax cuts in the 1993 budget? Or was it just purely and simply an undeliverable promise given he himself probably made it not expecting to win the election earlier that year.

  41. Cer White@1023

    @Uni: I think it was his 4 part interview with Obrien actually. It’s released on DVD – https://shop.abc.net.au/products/keating-the-interviews-2dvd

    Keating: I don’t blame Bob for skipping out on consumption tax…I blame him for this though: not telling me before he decided to go to the ACTU. In the middle of the night. That’s called ratting – R-A-T-T-I-N-G…I think his nerves went, basically.

    Think you will find Keating also told Kerry O’Brien in that series of interviews wtte that a GST is not the way to go now.

  42. http://mobile.news.com.au/finance/work/credlin-didnt-bring-down-the-pm-she-served-but-she-had-a-role-she-doesnt-admit/story-fn5tas5k-1227540598517

    Malcolm Farr.
    [The evening did not resolve the matter that Peta Credlin’s stories — the one she tells and the one imposed on her — are not universally accepted.

    She did not bring down the Abbott administration, and if she had a role it wasn’t because she was a woman who faced gender intolerance or because she was considered bossy, as opposed to strong.

    Her contribution to Tony Abbott’s rise and fall was salient incompetence at the worst possible occasions.

    For example, as controller of cabinet’s agenda, she allowed through the half-baked proposals to remove citizenship from those linked to terrorism. Deeply concerned senior ministers forced its rewriting.

    Mr Abbott’s fondness for knighthoods went from folly to farce — first they were reinstalled to public anger, then a new gong was granted to Prince Philip, who was already stooping from all his unearned chest metal.

    Ms Credlin was on duty at both decisions, a party to them.

    She was an agent of the gloom that worked so well in Opposition but which in government created a pall of apprehension over business and consumer confidence, and national security fears.]

  43. “@political_alert: “The people on Manus and Nauru will never be resettled in Australia. We cannot take a backward step” – PM @TurnbullMalcolm #auspol”

  45. Earth to Cer White:

    As a country Aus desperately needs increased competition, but the absurd penalty rates are hampering that.

    Penalty rates have nothing to do with the competitiveness between small and big business. Penalty rates do not apply differently on the basis of business size. The advantages of large business are numerous, and do not include penalty rates. Dominance of the supply chain is an important one. Ability to squeeze suppliers and secure exactly the right amount and range of products at any given moment.

  47. @Uni: I don’t think anybody expected him to actually win, including himself lol. Hewson shot himself in the foot so badly it probably surprised Keating himself. I don’t think Keating thought he’d win, and I don’t think he really thought through those tax cuts.

    @Dave: He said he doesn’t agree with the GST now because the alternatives he came up with more than adequately do the job. I’m not sure if that argument is politically motivated or whether he really believes it, he was VERY passionate about a GST, but he’s still very bitter Hawke went behind his back to do a deal with the ACTU to scuttle his tax.

  48. Rex@1034 , re Turnbull’s media appearances, true to a point. His problem is though that he really doesn’t have anything to say, apart from keeping Abbott’s policies.

    When people ask what are Labor’s polices and what do they stand for, perhaps they should ask that of the government.

  49. It is interesting here in Queensland re the CFMEU atm.

    All the focus has been on the union re a house built for one official by Mirvac. It was actually Mirvac employees who padded out invoices to cover the costs and at no stage has the RC actually said what the union rep has done wrong.

    Re the document disposal,I will wait and see but still I am yet to work out what the union had done wrong. According to the union it wad a normal clean out of records. The RC had sent the union a formal request for documentation but I wonder how they will determine if any of the documents destroyed were relevant if they have been destroyed.

    Once again I wait with nearest to see what the RC will determine the union has done illegally

    Cheers.

  50. [1028
    John Reidy

    Briefly@924, my memory may not be correct, but regarding a multi-faceted employment point , your sounds like Working Nation.

    Regarding Turnbull, today has been interesting:
    An announcement re the Carmichael coal mine.
    A delay/suspension of the taxation white paper.
    No negotiation on the ChFTA, with Turnbulls attack on Shorten
    The article in the Age re Sunday penalty rates.]

    JR, Turnbott obviously wants to take us all back to conflict-based politics. This is to attempt a cruel hoax on the Australian people. If he attempts this he will arouse very deep opposition from working people.

    The Labor movement in Australia grew out of the 8-hour day campaigns of building workers in the 1850s. Despite the rightist propaganda, nothing much has changed since then. People still want to have time with their families and for a life outside work. Penalty rates are an expression of this.

    It’s also apparent that Turnbott wants to extend the use of indentures in the Australian economy as a component of ChAFTA. Properly presented, this issue will ignite opposition like no other. For the better part of a century, we were all free and equal in this country. An indentured labour force will take away the rights as well as the incomes of working people, in reality restoring the most hated features of the colonial labour market. If Turnbott wishes to arouse the people against him, this is exactly the issue to choose.

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