Two very different poll results today, one in line with the ReachTEL and Galaxy polls that reported in the immediate wake of the leadership change last week, the other not. In the former category is Newspoll, which had the Coalition with a lead of 51-49 – compared with a Labor lead of 54-46 a fortnight ago – from primary votes of Coalition 44% (up five), Labor 35% (down four) and Greens 11% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull opens his account with an approval rating of 42% and disapproval of 24%, and leads Bill Shorten 55-21 as preferred prime minister. Shorten’s approval rating is down a point to 29%, and his disapproval down four to 54%.
The other poll for the day was Roy Morgan’s extraordinary finding of a 10% shift on two-party preferred, which blows out to 12% under respondent-allocated preferences. This leaves the Coalition with leads of 55-45 on the former measure and 53.5-46.5 on the latter, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up eleven), Labor 29.5 (down seven) and Greens 13% (down three). The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday from 2059 respondents, and appears to have have been conducted only using face-to-face polling, which has traditionally shown a lean to Labor. The Newspoll will have been conducted from Friday to Sunday, from about 1700 respondents contacted through robopolling and online surveying.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has published a result just from its latest weekly polling, together with its normal fortnightly rolling average, and its debut result for Malcolm Turnbull is 50-50 (52-48 in Tony Abbott’s last poll), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 37% (steady) and Greens 11% (steady). Turnbull records a 53-17 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister; 58% approve of the leadership coup, against 24% who disapprove; and 34% say his ascension makes them more likely to vote Coalition, against 14% for less likely. Forty-six per cent expect the government to run a full term versus 26% who expect an early election, and 40% expect the Coalition to win it versus 27% for Labor.
An extended question on Malcolm Turnbull’s personal attributes finds him much more highly regarded as Abbott across the board, with particularly big improvements since the question was last asked of him in February on intelligent (up seven to 81%), capable (up ten to 70%), understanding of the problems facing Australia (up eight to 63%) and visionary (up seven to 7%). His relative weak spots are, on the negative side of the ledger, arrogant (47%) and out of touch with ordinary people (46%), and on the positive, trustworthy (44%) and more honest than most politicians (39%). Bill Shorten’s position has deteriorated across the board since June, the worst movements being on aggressive (up eight to 36%, although maybe that’s a good thing), narrow-minded (up seven to 41%) and capable (down seven to 36%).
Essential also welcomes the Turnbull prime ministership with a question on whether Australia should become a republic – support for which is, interestingly, up five points since February to 39% with opposition down five to 29%, although 32% are in the “no opinion” category. Other questions find 67% support for a national vote on same-sex marriage compared with 21% who say it should be decided by parliament, and 45% choosing “incentives for renewable energy” from a list of favoured approaches to climate change, compared with 11% for an emissions trading scheme, 10% for the government’s direct action policy and 12% for no action required.
[ScoMo confirms that he learnt nothing from JoHo and is going to try to balance the budget by only asking the poor to pitch in while giving the rich a complete pass.]
One of my brothers never misses the opportunity to tell us that he and his ilk are carrying this country through their taxes.
Believe me, you cannot reason with him. He is of the group who squeal the loudest and politicians listen to.
imacca I think everything should be on the table including superannuation tax concessions, capital gains concessions, negative gearing and the GST. If all those items are taken into account it wouldn’t be that hard to find the revenue to provide adequate compensation to low income earners, company and personal tax and provide the state with additional revenue for health, education etc.
Hopefully some left over for real infrastructure expenditure.
Of all the issues that Turnbull can choose from to fulfill his stated wish to raise the level of the economic debate in Australia he chooses Sunday penalty rates.
sTraight from the IPA-Abbott anti-worker script.
He’s not the messiah, he’s not even naughty boy. Just another Tory beholden to his power base in the boardrooms of big business.
Despite the daily spin by the mass of GST lobbyists, polls still clearly indicate the public are overwhelmingly against a GST hike.
Malcolm would be giving Shorten a free kick by pursuing a GST hike.
[ he chooses Sunday penalty rates.]
To be fair he didn’t choose the issue. A question was asked and he responded he wouldn’t rule anything in or out and penalty rates would be considered. As far as I know the issue will be finally determined by FWA although the government can make recommendations in the process.
@JohnDaley_: Some facts on the level of Australian taxes (2): The top rate of marginal tax is not particularly high http://t.co/TAbCKylQZv
@rossmcg: As I said in comment 931, the SA Labor party substantially reduced penalty rates in agreement with the Unions. A vast number in this country understand the need to cut penalty rates, and I believe you’ll be disappointed with just how many people stand with the Labor Party on this issue.
It’s a simple argument for the leader with courage.
Time’s up for those who don’t NEED tax concessions and welfare.
@Rex: Fairfax poll, Nov 2012 – 12% supported a GST hike, 86% opposed
May 2014 – 30% support, 66% opposed
April 2015 – 37% support, 59% opposed
It won’t take long before the majority support the decision, going by the trend in the polls.
White
No GST rise while government spending on fossil industries like coal.
Cut those and look at the budget bottom line
[he chooses Sunday penalty rates.
To be fair he didn’t choose the issue. A question was asked and he responded he wouldn’t rule anything in or out and penalty rates would be considered]
To be even fairer he could simply have said penalty rates will stay.
Not hard to say it and mean it.
cEr White
I may have the blinkers in with penalty rates, the last 22 years of my working life I worked nights and Sundays. Extra money was poor compensation for the disruption it caused in my family.
The point I was trying to make is that there are plenty of other issues that need more urgent attention if Australia is to become a better place.
Cer White
A reflection of compromised and poor leadership during that period I’d suggest.
@Guy: Just pointing out that by this time next year, opinions on GST would most likely be 50-50. Don’t really have a position on the issue.
@Rossmcg: Actually it IS a big thing. Most European countries have a fairly high small business involvement in the country, Australia’s is appallingly low. As a country Aus desperately needs increased competition, but the absurd penalty rates are hampering that.
Tax Expenditures need a severe haircut if the tories want to cut taxes. They cannot have it both ways.
dave@118
Cer White, trends don’t work thgat way.
To go into more detail about those three different surveys.
Nov 2012, neither major party supported GST rises, 12% of people supported GST rise.
May 2014: Coalition supports a rise. 12% of the public support a rise, and 18% have noticed that it is now Coalition policy, and will always click the ‘pro-coalition’ option in any survey.
April 2015, Coalition supports a rise. 12% support the gst rise, and 25% of the population have noticed that it is now Coalition policy and thus voted for it to support the Coalition.
What you are doing, expecting the ‘trend’ to continue is like standing in a moving train, and confidently predicting that it will crash in 30 minutes when it runs out of track. It will stop.
CW
Well I think your contention on reading entrails of polling is worth what all predictions like that are.
You do not take into account the oppose argument will ramp up the more the LNP are stupid enough to push it.
Tax the poor not the rich. The GST is this personified. Not hard to get the public behind Labor on tax the multinationals
Cer White
So we abolish Sunday penalty rates and the blind shall see, the deaf hear, the dumb speak, the iron ore price soar, thousands of unemployed car workers will find jobs, multi nationals will start paying their tax, there will be peace in the Middle East and the cost of a latte on Sunday will fall?
Sorry, I just don’t believe it.
Cer White – You cut penalty rates you cut wages (same thing). Then people have less money to spend in shops. How is that going to help small business. There are plenty of ways of helping small business (an effects test for a start). Cutting wages isn’t one of them.
@Scott: Unless the States, in their desperate need for increased revenue (partly because the Fed Govt was/is withholding health funding) get on board the GST bandwagon also. Don’t paint this as a Lib/Lab issue either, there are some Labor states that either support, or are considering supporting, the idea of a GST rise. So, what happens to the support rate when this happens? Because the only 2 states who have rules it out are Vic and QLD
CW
Yep you are LNP alright. Cut budget for states and then argue the poor have to restore the budget instead of multinationals
@rossmcg: If you think most small businesses can afford to pay workers double time every Sunday, and double time and a half every holiday then you’re not living in reality. And they’re inability to open, or they’re willingness to open to the detriment of their profits is most certainly cutting into their ability to compete. An increased ability to compete will mean more small businesses, which means more jobs.
It’s not the only thing Aus need to do to increase competition, but as I said when the Labor Party starts acknowledging that penalty rates is hampering competition in Australia, the debate is starting to swing against your position.
davidwh @ 945 asked: What is a fair % of GDP for government expenditure? Currently it is 26%. You can’t say the level is unlimited because that is just not sustainable in the long-term.
One answer is the level that avoids pushing the domestic private sector into deficit, since private sector deficits are unsustainable, and enduring private sector deficits lead to unpleasant results. Of course in determining this level one must also take into account taxation and the current account (deficit, in the Australian context)
For anyone bothered
[PatriciaKarvelas
1h1 hour ago
PatriciaKarvelas @PatsKarvelas
The Prime Minister @TurnbullMalcolm is my lead guest on @RNDrive tonight at 6pm #auspol]
@Guy: Did I state a position on the issue? I think you’re intentionally turning a blind eye if you’re not seeing the way the debate is heading though.
CW
Cutting wages and expecting business to prosper means you are not living in reality.
See GFC and why Australia did not go into major slump like around rest of world.
The cut wages mantra of the right has been proved to be economically disastrous
Personally I think the GST issue is an arguable issue providing it is part of a comprehensive review of all revenue measures and the reasons for changes are fully explained. We do need more revenue to fund increases in health, education, aged-care, disability, infrastructure etc.
I say let’s have the debate and let the people decide as is their democratic right.
Treasurer Scott Morrison says Australia has a spending and not revenue problem.
I can see the Labor Ads now… Opening shot with Joe’s big round face….
“Australia has a spending and not revenue problem.”
Morphing to Scott’s big round face….
“Australia has a spending and not revenue problem.”
Closing shot…
“Abbott’s gone but nothing’s changed “
@KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN: SA increased wages overall in exchange for cutting penalty rates. A decent compromise, which Turnbull hasn’t actually said anything about.
CW
Nope its you turning the blind eye to reality and the fact that polls including trends change
Kristina Keneally offers some advice
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/23/five-things-labor-needs-to-focus-on-if-it-wants-to-beat-malcolm-turnbull
@Guy: GFC was Europe and America. Our close ties with Asia, and more importantly China, shielded us from the major effects of the GFC. You’ll notice China also wasn’t effected and you’ll note they don’t exactly have the highest wages.
@Guy: You can say that as much as you want. You’re only convincing yourself.
davidwh
The mass of pro-GST lobbyists in the public domain renders any debate barely worthwhile.
Strong leadership is required.
dwh
Everything is a debateable issue. Donald Trump has proved that.
Sensible serious consideration of government policy is a different matter.
Look at reaction to Shorten on QandA regarding GST and you will see why its not going to work.
Remember Howard got it by getting Less to betray the people who voted for the Democrats. Its never been popular and never will be.
When LNP says it can sell the GST what they mean is they can spin like no ones business.
[Strong leadership is required.]
No argument from me Rex.
Was it Ken Henry, or someone else, who said that by the time compensation was paid to the ‘poor’, a rise in the GST of 15% would not bring in enough to make it worth the fight.
davidwh
“I say let’s have the debate and let the people decide as is their democratic right.”
Your sense of humour is showing 🙂
CW
Your response on the GFC is pure LNP talking point. Ignoring the reality as outlined by Nobel winning economists who are not Labor politicians
The issue of compensation for lower income earners as a trade off for higher GST is complete bullshit.
You can compensate people but the bottom line is lower income earners will still pay a higher proportion of their income on purchases than higher income earners purchasing the same product or service.
It is as simple as that. GST is regressive and there are plenty of other areas to look at.
Super concessions, trusts and subsidies paid to the big mining companies and agricultural companies operating in this country. Simpl remove or reduce significantly fuel subsidies paid to the big players and you will have a huge amount of money to play with.
Big business loves the idea of reducing company tax and raising the GST. They do not pay GST so they do not give a shit.
Cheers.
Anyone else getting tired of the drumbeat of “Labor have no policies” media criticism when, as Opposition, they unambiguously have a lot more policies than the now-governing-for-more-than-two-years-Government?
Oh we’ve been given some alluring glimpses of what the Coalition MAY have as policies (now they’ve hit the reset button) but even the policies that have been “confirmed” by Turnbull are reported by the same media with a wink and a nudge indicating that they don’t really expect these commitments to be maintained.
Cer White
Most small business don’t pay the rates you say because most of them are closed on Sunday. You reckon abolishing penalty means you will be able to get a plumber on Sunday?
if the Tories’ backers get their way the only businesses open on Sunday will be big businesses. Last time I looked little hardware shops have disappeared in my neck of the woods. And that is only one example .
@Guy: Regarding Howard getting it through and about it never being popular, it was originally an idea coined by Keating. 12.5 per cent I think he wanted.
@Ross: Tradesmen excluded. Retail businesses closed on Sunday out of necessity, as in they can’t afford the wages.
CW
Keating dropped it. You might want to think about why he dropped it.
The facts is Howard did the GST in just the manner I described.
Keating dropped it because Hawke said no, he didn’t drop it because he wanted to.
CW
The GST is a REGRESSIVE tax.
Its a handbrake on consumer spending
Leasing arrangements has been responsible for the closure of many businesses not employees penalty rates.
CW@995
Yes its all Hawkes fault. Keating would never have the guts to sit on the back bench if he wanted to
Oh wait
And yet it was an idea thought up by the greatest Labor treasurer, and arguably the greatest treasurer, of the previous century. I wonder why he thought it would work…
Once schools are open on weekends and kids go to school on Saturday and Sunday then and only then will the argument “weekends are just like any other day ” have any significance.
Workers rely on penalty rates to survive and if they are asked to work shit antisocial hours then they should continue to receive penalty rates.
If a business cannot survive or runs at a loss on weekends because of penalty rates then don’t open. If they have not done their homework re profit, cash flow etc then too bad. They should know what they are getting in for and wages and penalty rates are just another cost they should have factored in when deciding to operate a business.