Two-party: full preference estimate
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| ANDREW HASTIE (Liberal) | 36933 | 54.4% | 54.8% | -7.0% |
| MATT KEOGH (Labor) | 30989 | 45.6% | 45.2% | +7.0% |
Primary vote
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| Liberal | 34291 | 46.4% | 46.7% | -4.4% |
| Labor | 26544 | 35.9% | 36.2% | +9.5% |
| Greens | 4479 | 6.1% | 6.0% | -1.4% |
| Palmer United | 2264 | 3.1% | 2.3% | -4.6% |
| Family First | 531 | 0.7% | 0.8% | -0.5% |
| Australian Christians | 2280 | 3.1% | 2.8% | -0.3% |
| Others | 3519 | 4.8% | 5.1% | +1.5% |
| Formal | 73908 | |||
| % of enrolled voters | 65.5% | |||
| % of projected turnout | 89.2% | |||
| Booths counted (of 46) | 46 |
Two-party: raw count
| # | % | Prefs | Pref. Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 40600 | 54.9% | 48.3% | -0.6% |
| LABOR | 33307 | 45.1% | 51.7% | +0.6% |
| Formal | 73907 | |||
| % of enrolled voters | 65.5% | |||
| % of projected turnout | 89.2% | |||
| Booths counted (of 46) | 46 |
City of Armadale booths
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 15490 | 49.2% | 49.2% | -9.3% |
| LABOR | 16025 | 50.8% | 50.8% | +9.3% |
| Booths counted (of 18) | 18 |
City of Mandurah booths
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 10868 | 58.3% | 58.3% | -3.3% |
| LABOR | 7765 | 41.7% | 41.7% | +3.3% |
| Booths counted (of 10) | 10 |
Other booths
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 10575 | 59.5% | 59.5% | -6.7% |
| LABOR | 7199 | 40.5% | 40.5% | +6.7% |
| Booths counted (of 18) | 18 |
Concluding summary
In political terms, the result is anti-climactic, in that the swing is neither a triumph nor a disaster for either side. However, it’s interesting to note that the swing was concentrated in Armadale, given that a lot more suburban territory cut from the same socio-economic cloth sits beyond the electorate’s northern boundaries, in Hasluck and the newly drafted seat of Burt, both of which are marginal Liberal. Another standout factor from the results is that the non-major party vote was down on the last election, contrary to the usual by-election form. The drop in the Greens vote can only partly be explained by competition from Animal Justice and the Pirate Party, and the loss of two third of the Palmer United vote wasn’t entirely matched by an increase for other right-of-centre minor parties. Contrary to the indications of some polling, Labor’s share of preferences was essentially unchanged.
Live count commentary
10.15pm. Results above are final for the night, there evidently being no counting of postals this evening. The results include two pre-poll voting centres – Armadale, which is included in the booth-matching calculations as the centre was in use at the 2013 election, and Mandurah, which isn’t and wasn’t.
9.01pm. The Armadale pre-poll voting centre — which along of the PPVCs I’m including in my booth-matching results projections, since it’s the only one that was in use at the 2013 election — has pushed the Labor swing over 7%. It will be interesting to see if there’s a general pattern of Labor performing better on pre-polls, since part of the vote will have been cast before the leadership change. Conversely, this may just be the oft-cited Armadale swing in action.
8.44pm. Two more results added, typical of the whole in being a strong result for Labor from Armadale and a weak one from Mandurah.
8.41pm. Still to report: two large booths at Halls Head in Mandurah; two Armadale booths, plus two others are yet to report two-party preferred; and in the vicinity of Armadale, full results from Harrisdale, and two-party from Byford.
8.32pm. More Armadale-heavy data has added a further increment to the Labor swing, although outstanding booths from Halls Head in Mandurah may well rein it back.
8.27pm. The addition of some further results from Armadale, where the swing is approaching 10%, has added half a point to the projected Labor swing.
8.22pm. I’ve been progressively adding newly reporting booths without comment, there being no surprises.
8.02pm. A very soft result for the Greens, who have gone backwards, and the minor party vote in general. Modest though it may be, Labor has at least achieved its two-party swing off its own steam.
8.00pm. Contrary to my expectations, the results have come in at a bewilderingly fast clip. But the swing has stayed around 6%, and the impression of a swing strongest in Armadale and weakest in Mandurah has been consistent.
7.49pm. I strongly suspect the AEC has the Labor and Liberal vote in Boddington entered the wrong way round. Otherwise there’s been a 40% swing there.
7.42pm. Five booths in from Armadale and now and three for Mandurah, and so for the swing in the latter looks to be the smaller. Despite that, the swing projection has remained been pretty stable at around 6%.
7.32pm. Fair bit of surgery required there on my results display, but I think it’s in order now. The swing Labor looks to be headed for is about 6%. It doesn’t seem that their preference share has picked up at all.
7.18pm. A fairly solid 11 booths in now, and I’ve had the swing at around 8% for a little while now. Antony Green only says 6%, but he’s less aggressive than me in extracting projections from incomplete results.
7.10pm. Three booths have been added on the 2PP vote, and these results are now being used to project preference flows on to booths that have reported the primary vote only.
7.05pm. A bunch of booths in now, including a couple from the larger centres, and the swing is looking stable so far — but I’m still going off 2013 election preferences. I’ll sort that out in a minute.
6.53pm. Carcoola and Dandalup North booths added on primary vote — so still only booths from the smaller semi-rural centres.
6.35pm. Still a lot I’m trying to work out here, but we’ve got primary votes in from the Preston Beach booth, and from that very small data point I’m projecting a result in line with expectations.
6pm. Polls have closed, so welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Canning by-election count. The table below will be updated as the numbers are reported to track both the raw vote and projections based on booth-matching and preference trends. With 12 candidates in the count, progress might be a bit slow. There are some small semi-rural booths in the electorate, and we should be hearing from these first in about an hour.
Using my unscientific by-election calculation of halving the swing to get a true picture, the swing is just under 3%, if carried over to the real election would see a 50-50 TPP result.
[The ABC now said that in Boddington the swing was 3.3%]
Boddington has a strong mining presence. You’d expect them to vote Liberal.
Question: In other words, Lord T had better roll up his sleeve, stick it deep into a hat and pull out a very big wabbit.
The fact Hastie is a militaristic creationist is going to work against him at the general election.
Reachtel showed a 3% swing to the Coalition nationally as a result of the turnbull ascendancy. It had also predicted a 10% swing to Labor under Abbott. This means that a swing of around 6-7 per cent post-Turnbull would reflect the previous result. It is good for Labor, but not great. No problem for Shorten at this point in the electoral cycle, given that he is playing a full-cycle strategy on a national, not Canning, framework.
The next election will come down to Liberal policies, the economy and, above all, the extent to which each party can retain a united front. Turnbull’s own performance will be reflected in the extent of Coalition unity.
24 Keogh speech
[Question: In other words, Lord T had better roll up his sleeve, stick it deep into a hat and pull out a very big wabbit.]
Yes I do think that, but I’m actually just pointing out a nice symmetry. 50-50 seems about right to me 🙂
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@203
Without major changes to many policies – it better be huge wabbit.
Bring on newspoll next week as a starter.
Question@199
IIRC, when the popular Lib member for Aston died, there was a swing to the Libs (govt) at the by-election.
Turnbulled it around; Labor shortened victory; Lieshout lies out of contention; voters Palmering off Clive; Greens a bit wan; Christians not putting Family first.
That was the week that was.
I’m off to watch some shinty on BBC Alba. Much less predictable.
Bemused,
Well that’s obviously not typical.
Question@211
Randall was also a popular member.
So there is a similar situation locally, ignoring leadership factors etc.
[Randall was also a popular member.
So there is a similar situation locally, ignoring leadership factors etc.]
Yes.
I think the swing could go up a bit with a high %age of Abbott-era votes remaining. Solid result for Labor in the circumstances. Keogh is a good candidate if perhaps not suited to the whole electorate.
Right, everyone’s over here.
A swing of about 6% to the Opposition. Probably doesn’t indicate anything much, can be spun whatever way the Government and Opposition want.
There are some similarities between Aston and Canning but I would caution about drawing too much of a link, Howard was a more established leader with at least a sense of purpose and an improving economy.
This time around, the Liberals are pretty much still in disarray and the economy is not improving
A dead rubber is now a *boost* –
[ Easy win in Canning byelection gives Malcolm Turnbull a boost]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/easy-win-in-canning-byelection-gives-malcolm-turnbull-a-boost-20150919-gjqjl7.html#ixzz3mBgMQTX6
Question@213
I can’t recall any other by-election in recent years caused by the death of a local member other than Greg Wilton and that was vastly different circumstances and Labor was in opposition.
Kevin
Why do you say the ALP candidate might not have been suitable for the whole area, I’ve heard plenty about Hastie but next to nothing about the alternative.
KB
[Solid result for Labor in the circumstances.]
Yes, I would expect the sugar hit to be in full force in a real poll by now. (I would expect the sugar hit from dumping Abbott to be instant anyway).
Harald Sun reports that Tony Abbott danced topless at his farewell party
Okay, good, just what we need to know.
I think #Airlines assessment is correct RE: Greens vote. The Greens surge we see in the polls seems to be concentrated in Victoria, in inner capital cities and in some pockets around rural NSW. Greens are more likely to deploy their resources in strategic seats which they consider winnable, or where there are useful Senate votes to shore up at-risk seats. There’s really nothing at all in it for them in Canning today.
It’d be a bit of fun to see a good Greens swing, but ultimately pointless and a waste of limited resources. If the Greens were suffering a Palmeresque swing I’d be worried, but -1% is meh.
@bemused and others, if you measure ‘Peak Greens’ by the Canning results then I get to measure ‘Peak Labor’ by the Denison results, or ‘Peak Liberal’ in Melbourne.
‘Okay-to-good’ result for Labor today, decent given the circumstances.
A rough check of postals primaries at the 2013 election shows that the Libs did better than in all the other categories combined ie they got about 57% of postal vote primaries compared to about 50% of all other categories.
ALP did almost exactly the same in postals as it did the other categories.
So on the basis of last time, postal counting next week should extend the Liberal lead and whatever the change from last time, if significant, could give an indication of the impact of the loss of Abbott.
Evening Bludgeroonies.
I reckon thats a pretty ho hum result.
Better than it was going to be, but still an average by-election swing, so no massive Turnboost either.
I think Labor can do well in marginal electorates with good ground campaign backed up by unions members. I think this was bit of a trial for that as well. I also noticed they have rolled out “Community Action Network” used by Victorian Labor in Canning. Though there are too many variables to judge its effectiveness.
Bemused, I got the 2.5% from here
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1314/HoRByElections
About 2/3 down there is a table. Search for “Average Swings”.
It seems quite complete and you should be able to find the results you are thinking of…
The ALP candidate went on as thought he was the LOTO conceding defeat.
Now, Bishop is going on as though its about her.
Just say congratulations and move on!!!!!!!
Also the entry of Animal Justice and the Pirate Party may have nibbled the Green vote. I think on balance this is status-quo Green, the surge invisible from Canning.
I believe Turnbull’s plan will proceed thusly:
1. Express support for the previous government’s policies while the previous cabinet remains in place.
2. Install a new cabinet.
3. Have the cabinet rewrite policies, including ones that Turnbull himself has said he would not personally change (same sex marriage, global warming).
4. Express support for the cabinet’s new policies.
5. If the right-wing fringe throws a fit, call a snap election, bring the new policies to it, and see the right-wing fringe obliterated from the party.
6. Or, if the fringe elements grin and bear it, implement more moderate policies, get public support by doing so, and call the next election at the normal time. Labor will lose, and fringe policies will have been repudiated.
Either way, the right-wing fringe loses its hold on the party.
Nice touch
For an election that was “all about Canning” Julie Bishop certainly got to speak for a a while? 🙁
Well the Libs may have won Canning, but not so much where it really counts… Abbott crowns his failed leadership with this pissup
[A TOPLESS Tony Abbott celebrated his freedom on the night of the leadership coup by dancing with his shirt off at a wild party in the Prime Minister’s suite.
Party goers have confirmed that the former Prime Minister partied on until the small hours of Tuesday morning and was still firing off text messages at 4:30am.
But the 57-year-old fitness freak was not topless for long, with one witness revealing that “it came off, but it was back on pretty quickly’’.
The wild party in the Prime Minister’s suite included a marble coffee table getting smashed and staffers souveniring shards of marble for the history books.
Staffers used iPhones at the impromptu knees-up to provide the dance music.
Mr Abbott had declined to hold a press conference on the night he was rolled by Malcolm Turnbull, instead heading straight to the bar with his loyal staffers.
Treasurer Joe Hockey also hit the dance floor with assistant minister Jamie Briggs, who later surfaced in a wheelchair the next morning.
Abbott has enjoyed a drink now and again, including the time where he skolled a beer at the Royal Oak Hotel in Double Bay in April.
Mr Briggs denied media reports that the injury was the result of his own topless dancing session on a table.
Instead, he insisted he was “seriously injured’’ after heading out on an early morning jog after the PM’s big party when he pivoted quickly. He faces a three month recovery.
However, it was an explanation that was widely derided by Liberal MPs and partygoers who insisted Mr Briggs was also “gyrating’’ earlier and fell over.
Several senior Liberal MPs also claimed a minister The Sunday Telegraph has chosen not to name had “spewed” in the ministerial wing]
[Either way, the right-wing fringe loses its hold on the party.]
They have tonight added another to their number.
Now for the pre-polls. What’s the damage?
[A TOPLESS Tony Abbott celebrated his freedom on the night of the leadership coup by dancing with his shirt off at a wild party in the Prime Minister’s suite.]
So on that note, I wonder how long it will be before Margie files the divorce papers (if she hasn’t already)?”
mexicanbeemer@221
Well his own party who were soo loyal and to whom he was sooo loyal – they had already steipped him of so much of his dignity he just had to go a bit further.
fraser lost his pants in Memphis >> abbott lost his top in Kiribilli.
“Several senior Liberal MPs also claimed a minister The Sunday Telegraph has chosen not to name had “spewed” in the ministerial wing”
Now that’s a story Australia needs to hear.
@232,
At first, I thought I was reading deliberate satire.
[… so no massive Turnboost either.]
Thanks, Hapless 🙂
A 6% swing against a leader enjoying a honeymoon period after seeing off an extremely unpopular leader, in a safe liberal seat is okay by me.
Is this speech still going? Or am I watching a replay?
ar
[5. If the right-wing fringe throws a fit, call a snap election, bring the new policies to it, and see the right-wing fringe obliterated from the party.]
Unless they happen to hold more of the seats on big margin’s.
[A 6% swing against a leader enjoying a honeymoon period after seeing off an extremely unpopular leader, in a safe liberal seat is okay by me.]
William has it at 6.9% as I type 🙂
ar @ 229
Overall, a reasonable prognostication, except for this:
[5. If the right-wing fringe throws a fit, call a snap election, bring the new policies to it, and see the right-wing fringe obliterated from the party.]
A lot of the right wing hold pretty safe seats. If the WA redistribution goes through, that will include Hastie in Canning with safer boundaries. Unfortunately for Turnbull, the safer seats tend to have the more extreme candidates as the membership reflects the voting characteristics. Only a tendency, but any Liberal PM will always have to deal with RWNJs in their party.
9.8% swing on primaries. Hard for that not to be a good result for the ALP. Well done briefly & Co.
Is there any reason ABC9to5 is showing endless repeats of the two most boring long-winded post by-election speeches in history?
Another waste of a journalist’s salary at fairfax:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/canning-byelection-liberal-candidate-andrew-hastie-set-for-win-over-matt-keogh-20150919-gjqjv1.html
Contains the obligatory line at the end:
[The byelection result now could put pressure on opposition leader Bill Shorten’s career.]
FFS, Rex Dawson could provide more insight and originality!
Hapless @ 246
Budget cuts.
Question@226
That really doesn’t say a lot.
It doesn’t say if it was a sitting govt member who died or an opposition member.
Well, despite all the spin Bill Shorten should sleep well tonight. But he should not be organising curtains for the Lodge yet. Overall, I think this was a pretty good result for Labor.
And congratulations to Briefly and his colleagues. They should be pleased. Burt could well be in the bag next election if Keogh stands and based on the work done this time round.