Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition

The second poll of the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership is the first since April last year to have the Coalition in front – albeit just barely.

A Galaxy poll of federal voting intention for the News Corp tabloids – the first such poll since May – confirms the impress of ReachTEL in recording a relatively modest bounce to the Coalition, who nonetheless peak their noses in front by 51-49 on two-party preferred. That makes this the first poll since a Newspoll in early April 2014 to have the Coalition in front. The primary vote numbers are Coalition 44%, Labor 36%, Greens 11% and Palmer United 2%.

Again, this tepid result on voting intention is defied by an overwhelming lead for Malcolm Turnbull over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, in this case of 51-20. The poll also puts Joe Hockey and Scott Morrison head-to-head for preferred Treasurer, with Morrison prevailing by 41% to 16%, leaving 43% uncommitted. There is further salt for Hockey’s wounds in a finding that 48% believed Tony Abbott should have sacked him as Treasurer, with only 23% disagreeing.

The poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1224. As best as I’m aware, it will have encompassed live interview polling together with online and automated phone polling, and included a small sub-sample of mobile phones. The Newspoll series conducted by Galaxy for The Australian involves only online polling and automated phone polling to landlines.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,308 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Watching Shorten on QANDA at the moment. He’s actually doing very well and if his performance tonight and the specifics of what he’s said is any indication the davidwh WILL get his contest of ideas, which is certainly a good thing in terms of the governance we have had so little of over the last two years.

    One thing that Bill seems VERY good at is talking “across” to people rather than “down” to them.

    Interesting Shortens response to the wind farm question. He’ll be painted as cruel in some parts, but all night he was giving no ground he didn’t have too, being direct and specific in a lot of his answers, and actually connecting with people. Good to see.

  2. Polls definitely seem to be a matter of the people reserving judgement on the Liberal party that so abused their trust, while expressing a fulsome support for Turnbull personally. Should give more power to his arm when it comes to the battle for the soul of that party which he is waging

  3. I don’t agree with the reading that it’s s limp start for Turnbull that will ‘settle’ at 50-50. If he’s seen to be successful in setting the agenda of his party, then expect LNP to increase and firm to much more significant levels of support, if he is seen to fail to keep a lid on the internal tensions and lose control of the agenda then Labor could be back in the game

  4. Best wishes to BK.

    Big difference between Morgan and Newspoll.

    The crowd roared with approval this week at the political guillotining of Abbott and Hockey. MT is an instant hero for showing some spine and ‘ridding us of this turbulent priest’.

    However a light has been shone on some of the murky depths of the Libs which we really haven’t seen reported on by the MSM for a while.

    A narrative of failure has now emerged regarding the last two years. This combined with voyeuristic reporting of this week’s sackings, stabbings, double-crossings. Erratic behaviour and drunkenness.

    Compared with the two early PMMT polls we have had so far, it looks like the Newspoll is right on the new TPP.

    The Morgan looks like an outlier but we might need ten polls to be confident of the new trend. This will probably coincide with the next sitting week of parliament.

    If the Newspoll is correct and the PMMT bounce is at 49/51 for the ALP then we are currently close to hung parliament territory depending on where the votes might land.

    The Canning results suggest that Labor will improve its heartland votes now through house-to-house campaigning and policy advocacy.

    I think if Turnbull decided to go DD now he’d be an even chance to lose. Lib formguide currently has too many LLLLLLLL’s and only perhaps a couple WW’s for throwing out Abbott and Hockey. He’ll need a few more WWW’s to feel confident.

  5. [ 21st Century Cabinet ]

    …is getting a real workout – looks and sounds like another three word slogan to me.

    turnbull said those days were gone.

    And ‘nimble’ needs some examination – turnbull can change his mind and backflip anytime he wants – but others still get kicked if they change a policy or a position ?

  6. Anyone else got PB looking strange, very basic html look? Same on Chrome and Firefox for me. Time for a cup of coffee, it might have fixed itself by the time I get back.

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