Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition

The second poll of the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership is the first since April last year to have the Coalition in front – albeit just barely.

A Galaxy poll of federal voting intention for the News Corp tabloids – the first such poll since May – confirms the impress of ReachTEL in recording a relatively modest bounce to the Coalition, who nonetheless peak their noses in front by 51-49 on two-party preferred. That makes this the first poll since a Newspoll in early April 2014 to have the Coalition in front. The primary vote numbers are Coalition 44%, Labor 36%, Greens 11% and Palmer United 2%.

Again, this tepid result on voting intention is defied by an overwhelming lead for Malcolm Turnbull over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, in this case of 51-20. The poll also puts Joe Hockey and Scott Morrison head-to-head for preferred Treasurer, with Morrison prevailing by 41% to 16%, leaving 43% uncommitted. There is further salt for Hockey’s wounds in a finding that 48% believed Tony Abbott should have sacked him as Treasurer, with only 23% disagreeing.

The poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1224. As best as I’m aware, it will have encompassed live interview polling together with online and automated phone polling, and included a small sub-sample of mobile phones. The Newspoll series conducted by Galaxy for The Australian involves only online polling and automated phone polling to landlines.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,308 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition”

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    Posted Monday, September 21, 2015 at 10:54 pm | PERMALINK
    Geoffrey: As I understand it, the big diff in Finland is that there are NO private schools and a lot of teacher autonomy. That’s a long way from here, unfortunately. It certainly would mean that people like Happiness/ESJ weren’t left behind.

    ————yes we could learn and imitate … one universal system in education or health helps keep standards high overall … and yes NO private schools … and yes lots of teacher autonomy, you are right. but also, there is this huge respect and need for learning since WW2 that has transformed what was one of the poorest country in europe — i am not sure latter factor can be transferred or replicated easily

  2. Happiness@3159

    Shorten admits moving to Rudd “saved the furniture”

    Stale news.

    confessions still thinks Gillard would have won the 2013 election! It is interesting to hear an ALP leader admit the shellacking would have been even worse with her there.

    She would. Gillard was a disaster from beginning to end.

  3. Rossmore@3223

    When Rudd took over from Gillard in Sept 13 the incumbent ALP received an immediate and significant boost in the polls. It didn’t last long, as most predicted. Time will tell whether Turnbull can maintain the sugar hit.

    Shorten’s performance tonight showed he can and will step up to the plate.

    Howard, who isn’t exactly Mr Charisma, got begrudging respect for being a tough little fighter, and he is.

    Shorten clearly has that capacity too, with the added advantage of better policies.

  4. Turnbull’s poor LOTO figures were heavily affected by peak-Rudd and Shorten is no peak-Rudd.

    I have heard so much positive comments about the new ministry, we wven saw a lot here before the politics kicked back. I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t have a positive poll effect in the next month.

    fter that it will get back to politics and policy. The real test won’t come until late this year, early next year.

  5. That folks, was the Shorten I have been seeing in recent months. I have to have SKY channel for our work (otherwise I wouldn’t be feeding the Murdochracy) but on the multiview channels, I got to see speeches that weren’t seen on normal TV.

    That passion, off the cuff empathy, I had seen in spades. THAT is why I think he is the ALP’s best leader right now.

  6. Re ESJ @3248: Thank you. I beg to differ. Bill Shorten may not be one of the great orators of our time but passion, engagement and a bit of risk taking (e.g. on an ETS) were there.

  7. let happy be happy for a week or so — we all need a holiday — the new paradigm, a nice phrase, i’ve heard worse slogans in recent years — if only eastern suburbs private school manner could do the trick — it almost could, from what we know of turnbull’s left affinity – but he leads the party that led us into iraq, the party that sponsored and benefited from abbott, etc etc etc etc etc

  8. This journo didnt think much of Shorten’s performance

    [Ben Cubby
    Ben Cubby – Verified account ‏@bencubby

    Shorten comes across tonight as someone who doesn’t react well to being questioned. #qanda
    5:16 AM – 21 Sep 2015

  9. [I have heard so much positive comments about the new ministry, we wven saw a lot here before the politics kicked back. I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t have a positive poll effect in the next month.]

    Yes, it’s great that Brandis is staying on as AG, Cormann as Finance Minister, Dutton in immigration and Hunt in Environment. In fact, it’s fantastic, because when it does get back to politics and policy, I have no doubt they’ll step up to the plate and deliver.

  10. Yeah, I still strongly prefer Turnbull to Shorten, and my voting intention remains strongly with the Greens. But Shorten isn’t a ‘presidential’ style candidate, like Rudd or Abbott. He seems to be more about pushing and improving the Labor brand, and the brand of unions, and I think he might be successful enough at that to win. He had some good policies to mention. If he wins it will be fantastic to see him work with the Greens after the next election, he certainly won’t have the Senate trouble Abbott did. Like Gillard, if Labor plays its policy cards right and doesn’t piss off the Greens too much, their governments could have an effective double majority.

  11. [Show full conversation
    10m10 minutes ago
    Schtang ‏@Schtang
    @bencubby what qanda were you watching? – he was actually very good and not the cartoon character portrayed by MSM
    Ben Cubby
    Ben Cubby – Verified account ‏@bencubby

    @Schtang I thought he struggled TBH. Treading water
    5:55 AM – 21 Sep 2015

  12. Now it shocks me that I’m going to say this after all he’s done, but I think Mal Brough is pretty great. He’s a magnificent talker and seems intelligent. No doubt I am diametrically opposed to him politically, but it’s deeply satisfying to have an executive government who I don’t think are actual real-life idiots.

  13. Kiera ‏@KieraGorden 4m4 minutes ago

    Mal Brough just lied when he said he hadn’t procured Slipper’s diary. This guy’s now a minister in MT’s govt! #AusPol

  14. Shorten remains the best leader to take the ALP into the next election. IMHO, of course.

    The big hurdle Turnbull faces is getting his 2PP consistently at 52ish or better. If he can, he is safe from dissent within, and will have the political authority to stamp his policy wishes on the party. If he can’t, the hard right will be able to make merry hell.

  15. Libretarian I’ll still be around at the next NewsPoll and after that if the sugar hit doesn’t last so will take whatever people want to throw at me. I’m sure someone can repost my opinions to remind me 🙂

  16. [I have heard so much positive comments about the new ministry, we wven saw a lot here before the politics kicked back. I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t have a positive poll effect in the next month.]

    You may be right but it sounds a bit shallow, it’s not like he invented “new ministry”.

    I’m waiting for the policy debate.

  17. [Kiera
    4m4 minutes ago
    Kiera ‏@KieraGorden
    What a smarmy, lying shit Mal Brough is. A minister for only a few hours & already cocky & lying to Australians]

  18. It’s interesting that Brough has been out today talking about reforming the Senate voting system. It had seemed to have dropped off the radar of late, so it’s good to see it’s still on the agenda.

    From his phrasing he hasn’t made any mention of the joint committee’s recommendations … and that does make me worry a bit that they’ll come up with some half arsed alternative plan (eg arbitrary thresholds for groups to stay in the count), but cross fingers it’s just Brough not committing to anything in his first day on the job.

  19. Phoenix @ 3263
    As a Greens member I have decided not to forgive the liberal party for the damage they have done to our renewable energy industry. And they gave us Tony Abbott and only changed him because they were certain to lose the election.
    After watching mr charisma vs mr substance tonight it seemed very obvious that Morrison will be the new opposition leader in 2016 and Wyatt Roy probably the next liberal PM in a few decades.
    And Mal Brough … WTF is Malcolm thinking! Lots of free kicks for Bill there.

  20. Sorry Question but I have been waiting for this since 2010. A real political contest about policy and ideas rather than a never-ending political bumfight. So yes I am a bit happy.

  21. As I said earlier, the big question for the Australian public is whether they are going to reward the Liberal Party for saving them from … the Liberal Party.

  22. [Sorry Question but I have been waiting for this since 2010. A real political contest about policy and ideas rather than a never-ending political bumfight. So yes I am a bit happy.]

    I understand David, go right ahead.

  23. Agree with these sentiments

    MoreWordsThanLinks – ‏@MsRonnyB

    Mal Brough’s aggression towards Emma Alberici #lateline is indicative of the condescending & treacherous prick he really is. #auspol PIG.
    6:21 AM – 21 Sep 2015

  24. As someone with almost no prior knowledge of Mal Brough except that he had something to do with the Slipper stuff, he comes across *at face value* as a fantastic speaker and really quick on his feet. He’s enjoyable just to listen to, and I don’t think he’s an idiot.

    If I knew what he stood for, I might fiercely dislike him. But at this point all I have to go on is that Abbott didn’t want him, that Turnbull does, and that he’s quick and has his facts about him.

    Notice that none of this lot have spoken policy yet. People like me who are seeing a lot of these faces for the first time have no idea how much of a change they’ll be. Dutton, Abetz, Hockey, Abbott, Cormann and others were so heavily briefed with such pathetic lines that it was repulsive to me. Turnbull and Brough seem like they haven’t had talking points downloaded into their hard drives yet, and I really like that. Until the actual politics begins, my shockingly positive (And I expect quite naive) impression of Turnbull and his people will continue.

  25. I have felt it myself and others I have spoken to, mostly ALP members / supporters, have felt it too. A great sense of relief that Abbott is gone.

    It is little wonder that the Libs get a bounce out of that as they get the credit for moving him on.

    Abbott has poisoned Australian politics since he first became LOTO.

  26. It seems to me that the politics could break in any direction. I have no idea who will win the next election and anyone who thinks they do is wrong.

    We might know better in a few weeks, but people who are getting excited by the new numbers now for the Government should bear this in mind:

    When they do the polls, they ask the hypothetical question “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today…”.

    But if the Liberals had dumped their leader a week before the next election they would be crucified by the electorate.

    We have some time to go before things get clearer. So far, all we know is that the Government finally has an adult in child, not a psychopathic kid. And the Liberals should be ashamed and punished at the elections for wasting 2 years of our country’s future.

  27. [ contest about policy and ideas ]

    Dont get your hopes up davidwh. The Liberal RWNJobbies are still a force. Down but not out, they dont do actual workable policy, and Turnbull has not taken them on as yet.

  28. bemused @ 3286

    [Abbott has poisoned Australian politics since he first became LOTO.]

    I agree wholeheartedly with that.

    And while he remains in Parliament, his malign toxicity will continue to poison. Fortunately, only his own side of politics is susceptible.

  29. I want to apologise for not putting up BK’s message to me about being in hospital with his crook shoulder, and not being able to do this morning’s Dawn Patrol. My phone was offline until about 5pm so I did not read my messages till then. He asked me to explain why he couldn’t do his usual links.

    I am not sure when he will be back on song so we will have to pitch in with our own links until he is back.

  30. My 3288 should have read:

    [So far, all we know is that the Government finally has an adult in charge, not a psychopathic kid.]

    Not ‘child’

  31. Yeah, it could go anyway from here, TPOF.
    I think Shorten did all we could hope tonight, but he’s got to keep his media profile up from here.

    It will be up to others to take the personality fight directly to Turnbull. Shorten should stick to passionately arguing policy, he’s good when he’s fired up.

  32. I would replace Mel Brough with Bruce Billson

    As much as I might have a strong preference for Turnbull over Abbott but he has surrounded himself with two or three dud types.

    But that is the nature of politics and time will tell if this is a good or bad government.

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