Two-party: full preference estimate
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| ANDREW HASTIE (Liberal) | 36933 | 54.4% | 54.8% | -7.0% |
| MATT KEOGH (Labor) | 30989 | 45.6% | 45.2% | +7.0% |
Primary vote
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| Liberal | 34291 | 46.4% | 46.7% | -4.4% |
| Labor | 26544 | 35.9% | 36.2% | +9.5% |
| Greens | 4479 | 6.1% | 6.0% | -1.4% |
| Palmer United | 2264 | 3.1% | 2.3% | -4.6% |
| Family First | 531 | 0.7% | 0.8% | -0.5% |
| Australian Christians | 2280 | 3.1% | 2.8% | -0.3% |
| Others | 3519 | 4.8% | 5.1% | +1.5% |
| Formal | 73908 | |||
| % of enrolled voters | 65.5% | |||
| % of projected turnout | 89.2% | |||
| Booths counted (of 46) | 46 |
Two-party: raw count
| # | % | Prefs | Pref. Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 40600 | 54.9% | 48.3% | -0.6% |
| LABOR | 33307 | 45.1% | 51.7% | +0.6% |
| Formal | 73907 | |||
| % of enrolled voters | 65.5% | |||
| % of projected turnout | 89.2% | |||
| Booths counted (of 46) | 46 |
City of Armadale booths
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 15490 | 49.2% | 49.2% | -9.3% |
| LABOR | 16025 | 50.8% | 50.8% | +9.3% |
| Booths counted (of 18) | 18 |
City of Mandurah booths
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 10868 | 58.3% | 58.3% | -3.3% |
| LABOR | 7765 | 41.7% | 41.7% | +3.3% |
| Booths counted (of 10) | 10 |
Other booths
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 10575 | 59.5% | 59.5% | -6.7% |
| LABOR | 7199 | 40.5% | 40.5% | +6.7% |
| Booths counted (of 18) | 18 |
Concluding summary
In political terms, the result is anti-climactic, in that the swing is neither a triumph nor a disaster for either side. However, it’s interesting to note that the swing was concentrated in Armadale, given that a lot more suburban territory cut from the same socio-economic cloth sits beyond the electorate’s northern boundaries, in Hasluck and the newly drafted seat of Burt, both of which are marginal Liberal. Another standout factor from the results is that the non-major party vote was down on the last election, contrary to the usual by-election form. The drop in the Greens vote can only partly be explained by competition from Animal Justice and the Pirate Party, and the loss of two third of the Palmer United vote wasn’t entirely matched by an increase for other right-of-centre minor parties. Contrary to the indications of some polling, Labor’s share of preferences was essentially unchanged.
Live count commentary
10.15pm. Results above are final for the night, there evidently being no counting of postals this evening. The results include two pre-poll voting centres – Armadale, which is included in the booth-matching calculations as the centre was in use at the 2013 election, and Mandurah, which isn’t and wasn’t.
9.01pm. The Armadale pre-poll voting centre — which along of the PPVCs I’m including in my booth-matching results projections, since it’s the only one that was in use at the 2013 election — has pushed the Labor swing over 7%. It will be interesting to see if there’s a general pattern of Labor performing better on pre-polls, since part of the vote will have been cast before the leadership change. Conversely, this may just be the oft-cited Armadale swing in action.
8.44pm. Two more results added, typical of the whole in being a strong result for Labor from Armadale and a weak one from Mandurah.
8.41pm. Still to report: two large booths at Halls Head in Mandurah; two Armadale booths, plus two others are yet to report two-party preferred; and in the vicinity of Armadale, full results from Harrisdale, and two-party from Byford.
8.32pm. More Armadale-heavy data has added a further increment to the Labor swing, although outstanding booths from Halls Head in Mandurah may well rein it back.
8.27pm. The addition of some further results from Armadale, where the swing is approaching 10%, has added half a point to the projected Labor swing.
8.22pm. I’ve been progressively adding newly reporting booths without comment, there being no surprises.
8.02pm. A very soft result for the Greens, who have gone backwards, and the minor party vote in general. Modest though it may be, Labor has at least achieved its two-party swing off its own steam.
8.00pm. Contrary to my expectations, the results have come in at a bewilderingly fast clip. But the swing has stayed around 6%, and the impression of a swing strongest in Armadale and weakest in Mandurah has been consistent.
7.49pm. I strongly suspect the AEC has the Labor and Liberal vote in Boddington entered the wrong way round. Otherwise there’s been a 40% swing there.
7.42pm. Five booths in from Armadale and now and three for Mandurah, and so for the swing in the latter looks to be the smaller. Despite that, the swing projection has remained been pretty stable at around 6%.
7.32pm. Fair bit of surgery required there on my results display, but I think it’s in order now. The swing Labor looks to be headed for is about 6%. It doesn’t seem that their preference share has picked up at all.
7.18pm. A fairly solid 11 booths in now, and I’ve had the swing at around 8% for a little while now. Antony Green only says 6%, but he’s less aggressive than me in extracting projections from incomplete results.
7.10pm. Three booths have been added on the 2PP vote, and these results are now being used to project preference flows on to booths that have reported the primary vote only.
7.05pm. A bunch of booths in now, including a couple from the larger centres, and the swing is looking stable so far — but I’m still going off 2013 election preferences. I’ll sort that out in a minute.
6.53pm. Carcoola and Dandalup North booths added on primary vote — so still only booths from the smaller semi-rural centres.
6.35pm. Still a lot I’m trying to work out here, but we’ve got primary votes in from the Preston Beach booth, and from that very small data point I’m projecting a result in line with expectations.
6pm. Polls have closed, so welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Canning by-election count. The table below will be updated as the numbers are reported to track both the raw vote and projections based on booth-matching and preference trends. With 12 candidates in the count, progress might be a bit slow. There are some small semi-rural booths in the electorate, and we should be hearing from these first in about an hour.
With William’s latest update, the obvious 5-6% swing looks right on target.
Which is a bit disappointingly predictable.
Swing of less than 5% against the Liberal pirmary vote that’s more than acceptable.
Zoidy
Why?
Nearly a quarter of the booths are in and whilst Armadale and the other booths are showing strong swings and Mandulah is only showing moderate swings, I am yet to see any booths swing near the needed margin required for an ALP win (11.8%)
There must be a mistake on the ABC site got Boddington with 33.5% swing to ALP
Still four Armadale booths to come in yet.
Hastie back down to 46.33 primary. On these figures PUP and the dogbotherers get him over the line.
Swing to ALP on primaries of %9,66!
SHOWS ON – I think he’s holding that stuff back for his maiden speech.
beemer
I would say a win to the ALP for the size of the swing and LNP retain the seat by a smaller margin
From the national polls it looks as if the Turnbull bounce was 4%, the result in canning was an 8%, 4+8 = 12. Canning was held by 12%. You have to wonder what the Liberal internal polling was saying; who knew and why did Turnbull roll Abbott before instead of after this weekend.
I suppose thing thing for hastie is that as I understand it canning as we know it disappears at the next election. Presumably the new seat won’t expose him to the issues that Armadale people have in their daily lives which he would appear totally ill equipped to deal with.
It will be an interesting exercise for William to look at the swing in the pre-polls and postal votes compared with election night results to give us an idea of the impact of dumping Abbott.
Hastie’s first speech. Just imagine the many and various ways he can reference our defence forces.
The postals will be interesting…
frednk – you need to account for the long time local member effect in Canning. Take 5% off the Liberal vote just because it’s a new candidate, basically.
The “real” swing to Labor looks in the 0.5-1.5% mark at the moment.
Guytaur
Yeah, the ALP would be pretty happy with the result, offer the candidate the opportunity to campaign for the next year and the seat might be very close on election night.
The other thing we need to remember is the retribution will change the make up of seats like Canning so it nearly renders this result as meaningless for both sides.
[Hastie’s first speech. Just imagine the many and various ways he can reference our defence forces.]
Just imagine how many ways he can tell us about his role in our defence forces!
So bascially Labor got back the PUP voters who didnt vote for them in 2013 and took off 4% of the Liberal primary vote.
Each side can take comfort from this result IMHO.
@164,
We know you meant “redistribution”.. but 🙂
Mb
Anyone who has walked down Oxford St Paddington knows that guy. A serial pest cadging cigarettes and money from whoever passes.
I thought MT said wtte “you shouldn’t smoke it’s not good for you”. A subtle difference but very different meaning to “you shouldn’t smoke”
No bad considering Labor were ‘running dead’ ®
TPOF:
And how many ways he can restate how much the previous govt let down The Troops!
I hesitate to mention it but ……. very poor effort from the Greens.
td @ 163
Nobody allowed 5% for the local member effect – especially as the local member died, rather than quit mid-term under a cloud.
That said, the swing is such that it does not really matter now how it is spun by the parties and the press. It will be what the brains trusts of the two parties make of it. Both will be satisfied to some extent. The Liberals because it will confirm their good judgment in tossing Tony overboard. Labor, because it will confirm that the public are still pretty unhappy with what this government is doing, despite the installation of a new boss. Overall, Labor will tend to be happier the bigger the swing. I’d see 5% as neutral (in the sense that both would be equally as happy, rather than that being a non-swing).
Gary Sparrow@166
The brutal knifing of a first term PM who *apparently* was sooo loved and he in turn was sooo loyal, right up to the day when they didn’t – all meant this was – well – basically a dead rubber.
Except all those nasty nasty buggers still have blood on theirs hands.
OC
Okay, then that would explain why Turnbull said that, his only alternative was to try and ignore but in front of the cameras that wouldn’t have been a good look.
ajm @ 171
I don’t have any idea about effort, but I’m surprised by the result so far.
On the Greens
I wouldn’t have considered Canning, natural Green turf so it means little for the Greens.
Have we reached peak Green?
2 obs:
1. far from being decided on ‘local’ issues, this looks like a bi-polarised race. Not surprising given all the $$, leader visits and national attention. Mr Shorten can crow about the lift in ALP primary support. But…
2. Turnbull’s honeymoon may have won back a percent or two to the Lib primary vote over Abbott ‘era’ polling. Not such big bikkies. But more importantly, protest and minor party voters are returning preference support to the Libs.
I don’t know the electorate so can’t really comment other than to say that only 38% of the vote counted and usually the big booths come in last. Will they be in predominately Labor areas or Lib areas?
We may see the swing to Labor change significantly depending on the above and the pre-polls.
Green New seat of Burke tailor made to be a Labor seat according to this swing.
ajm, 171
[ I hesitate to mention it but ……. very poor effort from the Greens. ]
From what I’ve seen, outside of greens-friendly inner city areas (ie Higgins and Bradfield + whatever Mayo is) the Greens vote generally slides from the last election’s results
I don’t know a lot about WA geography, but it seems the biggest swing so far has been in Armadale. My understanding is that this area will be going to the new electorate of Burt, which is nominally Liberal by around 5% on 2013 results. Labor will be happy with the swing there then.
TPOF – you may be right in that 5% is an overestimation of the local member effect, but Randall was an extremely well liked and well known local member so I personally think he probably had a bit more than your typical local member effect going on.
In any case, the more broad point that the headline swing is overstated because there’s two new candidates is, I think, still valid.
(in by elections)
Looks like there is a bit there for both Shorten and Turnbull. Have to call it a draw after all the rhetoric in the past few weeks.
[Swing of less than 5% against the Liberal pirmary vote that’s more than acceptable.]
This is a terrible result for the Coalition. If this result is repeated nationally next year the Coalition will be a 1 term government and lose the election in a landslide.
mexicanbeemer@153
Try Boddington. Lib vote dropped 33.5% according to the ABC site.
dwh
The win for Labor is the China Free Trade agreement. We will be hearing a lot more about that
Bemused
I heard that about after commenting, if I recall William’s seat preview, Boddington was the LNP safest booth
Poor Lib Dems, they’re polling even worse than Teresa van Lieshout
@epiesse: Matt Keogh debriefs with supporters ahead of speech #Canning http://t.co/WdwVO2NunM
One would think William’s assessment that the data has been accidentally switched for Boddington is correct, no?
The ABC now said that in Boddington the swing was 3.3%
From what I have heard, Randall was the sort of MP who attended as many community events as possible. So I would assume his personal vote was higher than average
@AndrewTranAU: #canning ~10k pre-polls will be counted tonight, but not ~11.6k postals (likely cast before our new PM) #canningvotes
Guytaur the CFTA will go ahead but yes we will hear a lot about it before it passes both houses.
davidwh@185
abbott supporters could play merry hell with all of this.
The tories have made themselves assassins of a first term PM despite all their bleating never to do so.
What a bunch of backstabbers.
ajm@171
Does it portend ‘peak Greens’? 👿
The average swing against the government after the death of an MP is 2.5%
That makes this swing (currently projected ate 6.3) at 3.8% above average.
Subtract that from the LNP result at the last election and you get roughly 50-50.
It all fits very neatly…
[Subtract that from the LNP result at the last election and you get roughly 50-50.]
And at the current projected swing of 6% you get exactly 50-50.