Two-party: full preference estimate
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| ANDREW HASTIE (Liberal) | 36933 | 54.4% | 54.8% | -7.0% |
| MATT KEOGH (Labor) | 30989 | 45.6% | 45.2% | +7.0% |
Primary vote
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| Liberal | 34291 | 46.4% | 46.7% | -4.4% |
| Labor | 26544 | 35.9% | 36.2% | +9.5% |
| Greens | 4479 | 6.1% | 6.0% | -1.4% |
| Palmer United | 2264 | 3.1% | 2.3% | -4.6% |
| Family First | 531 | 0.7% | 0.8% | -0.5% |
| Australian Christians | 2280 | 3.1% | 2.8% | -0.3% |
| Others | 3519 | 4.8% | 5.1% | +1.5% |
| Formal | 73908 | |||
| % of enrolled voters | 65.5% | |||
| % of projected turnout | 89.2% | |||
| Booths counted (of 46) | 46 |
Two-party: raw count
| # | % | Prefs | Pref. Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 40600 | 54.9% | 48.3% | -0.6% |
| LABOR | 33307 | 45.1% | 51.7% | +0.6% |
| Formal | 73907 | |||
| % of enrolled voters | 65.5% | |||
| % of projected turnout | 89.2% | |||
| Booths counted (of 46) | 46 |
City of Armadale booths
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 15490 | 49.2% | 49.2% | -9.3% |
| LABOR | 16025 | 50.8% | 50.8% | +9.3% |
| Booths counted (of 18) | 18 |
City of Mandurah booths
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 10868 | 58.3% | 58.3% | -3.3% |
| LABOR | 7765 | 41.7% | 41.7% | +3.3% |
| Booths counted (of 10) | 10 |
Other booths
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 10575 | 59.5% | 59.5% | -6.7% |
| LABOR | 7199 | 40.5% | 40.5% | +6.7% |
| Booths counted (of 18) | 18 |
Concluding summary
In political terms, the result is anti-climactic, in that the swing is neither a triumph nor a disaster for either side. However, it’s interesting to note that the swing was concentrated in Armadale, given that a lot more suburban territory cut from the same socio-economic cloth sits beyond the electorate’s northern boundaries, in Hasluck and the newly drafted seat of Burt, both of which are marginal Liberal. Another standout factor from the results is that the non-major party vote was down on the last election, contrary to the usual by-election form. The drop in the Greens vote can only partly be explained by competition from Animal Justice and the Pirate Party, and the loss of two third of the Palmer United vote wasn’t entirely matched by an increase for other right-of-centre minor parties. Contrary to the indications of some polling, Labor’s share of preferences was essentially unchanged.
Live count commentary
10.15pm. Results above are final for the night, there evidently being no counting of postals this evening. The results include two pre-poll voting centres – Armadale, which is included in the booth-matching calculations as the centre was in use at the 2013 election, and Mandurah, which isn’t and wasn’t.
9.01pm. The Armadale pre-poll voting centre — which along of the PPVCs I’m including in my booth-matching results projections, since it’s the only one that was in use at the 2013 election — has pushed the Labor swing over 7%. It will be interesting to see if there’s a general pattern of Labor performing better on pre-polls, since part of the vote will have been cast before the leadership change. Conversely, this may just be the oft-cited Armadale swing in action.
8.44pm. Two more results added, typical of the whole in being a strong result for Labor from Armadale and a weak one from Mandurah.
8.41pm. Still to report: two large booths at Halls Head in Mandurah; two Armadale booths, plus two others are yet to report two-party preferred; and in the vicinity of Armadale, full results from Harrisdale, and two-party from Byford.
8.32pm. More Armadale-heavy data has added a further increment to the Labor swing, although outstanding booths from Halls Head in Mandurah may well rein it back.
8.27pm. The addition of some further results from Armadale, where the swing is approaching 10%, has added half a point to the projected Labor swing.
8.22pm. I’ve been progressively adding newly reporting booths without comment, there being no surprises.
8.02pm. A very soft result for the Greens, who have gone backwards, and the minor party vote in general. Modest though it may be, Labor has at least achieved its two-party swing off its own steam.
8.00pm. Contrary to my expectations, the results have come in at a bewilderingly fast clip. But the swing has stayed around 6%, and the impression of a swing strongest in Armadale and weakest in Mandurah has been consistent.
7.49pm. I strongly suspect the AEC has the Labor and Liberal vote in Boddington entered the wrong way round. Otherwise there’s been a 40% swing there.
7.42pm. Five booths in from Armadale and now and three for Mandurah, and so for the swing in the latter looks to be the smaller. Despite that, the swing projection has remained been pretty stable at around 6%.
7.32pm. Fair bit of surgery required there on my results display, but I think it’s in order now. The swing Labor looks to be headed for is about 6%. It doesn’t seem that their preference share has picked up at all.
7.18pm. A fairly solid 11 booths in now, and I’ve had the swing at around 8% for a little while now. Antony Green only says 6%, but he’s less aggressive than me in extracting projections from incomplete results.
7.10pm. Three booths have been added on the 2PP vote, and these results are now being used to project preference flows on to booths that have reported the primary vote only.
7.05pm. A bunch of booths in now, including a couple from the larger centres, and the swing is looking stable so far — but I’m still going off 2013 election preferences. I’ll sort that out in a minute.
6.53pm. Carcoola and Dandalup North booths added on primary vote — so still only booths from the smaller semi-rural centres.
6.35pm. Still a lot I’m trying to work out here, but we’ve got primary votes in from the Preston Beach booth, and from that very small data point I’m projecting a result in line with expectations.
6pm. Polls have closed, so welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Canning by-election count. The table below will be updated as the numbers are reported to track both the raw vote and projections based on booth-matching and preference trends. With 12 candidates in the count, progress might be a bit slow. There are some small semi-rural booths in the electorate, and we should be hearing from these first in about an hour.
[Shurely the Stable Population Party candidate lives in the area and would never leave. Anything else would be unstable.]
Very funny. 😀
I’ve seen enough to call it a LNP win, it appears that the Armadale and other booths are swinging strongly to the ALP by around 8-9% but Mandulah is only swinging about 5-6%
Maybe Shorten’s wife could rip off unemployed people and bill the taxpayer for millions like Kevin Rudd’s wife does?
Looks like its settling at around 56 – 44 lemmings.
Kevin
I didn’t see him say that, I heard him say that he didn’t have a smoke.
Quitting is good advice.
imacca@100
[
imacca
Posted Saturday, September 19, 2015 at 9:22 pm | Permalink
4.7% national swing would be a labor government in a land slide.
Careful…that will bump up the shrill levels from ESJ / CC / TBA.
Not losing canning is really their first good political news in how long?? 🙂
]
It looks like swing might be higher; something I suppose; holding a seat with a 12% margin.
Lorax – I share your concerns about Shorten but I’m not convinced that he should be replaced. It would be nice if you could stop calling people lemmings, just as it would be nice for others to stop calling you a troll.
mex @ 102
With the advent of a new and popular PM replacing one of the most detested it was always going to be a Liberal win. The question was how far the swing away from the government would be. Quite frankly, any swing more than 5% to Labor will be something to celebrate.
That is, something for Labor to celebrate.
That is, something for Labor to celebrate.
Called by Antony Green as a Hastie win
Shorten will have a good chance to strut his stuff on Q&A Monday night.
But of course there are so many precious petals here who just can’t bear to watch so will miss it.
I think the pre poll vote will be intyersting – to see if there is a discrepancy from the many who vote in advance, and would have had Abbott in mind. Maybe.
As for voting on policy. True conversation I had today:
Bloke: “So, this China export deal will be good.”
TB: “Why?”
Bloke: “Well, I think it will be good if we get cheaper Chinese take away, don’t you think?”
He wasn’t joking. He was serious. He operates safety equipment for a construction company. He appears sane and level headed. He is a moron. And he votes.
Swing to Labor on primaries now above 10%. Must be Armadale booths pushing the swing up.
TPOF
Its a good result for the ALP, I am guessing had Tony stayed PM we could have seen an extra two to three percent added to the swing
Airlines@112
No shit!
WOW… what a psephologist. 😆
MB – I heard him suggest to the guy he give up smoking. It’s not what I’d be saying to a homeless guy. It’s not what Shorten would say. Small point. But it annoyed me.
Liberal primary down to 45%, this result will confirm the reasons for the leadership challenge, that is about the only spin anyone can play.
Shorten should be safe as ALP leader.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@118
Being a militant anti-smoker, I may well have said something stronger.
mex @ 116
Personally, I think the Turnbull effect is higher. I think Labor could well have won – though by very little. In reality, the only really bad thing about the result is that they are going to send a narcissist like Hastie to bolster the rwnj presence on the Coalition back bench.
That’s it for the ABC coverage.
Seriously. I know it’s a lay down misere, but still.
I’ve just put this together. Abbott’s downfall.
(Someone had to.)
Kevin
Thanks, I only heard him get asked for a smoke, I would be more concerned if Turnbull called him a bum and to get a job but I say that as I don’t like smoking.
mexicanbeemer
[ Its a good result for the ALP, I am guessing had Tony stayed PM we could have seen an extra two to three percent added to the swing ]
I agree. On these numbers it might have gone very close with Abbott still at the helm. Still, even with a swing of 8-10%, it will no doubt be reported as a resounding endorsement of the Turnbott 🙁
@KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Er, some free advice, let’s not complain about the smoking thing. I don’t want to have to defend Turnbull, but if people attack his anti-smoking comment I won’t be able to stop myself.
[ imacca, I think the bigger question is – does a disengaged electorate even vote on policy anymore? ]
The Libs certainly hope not.
I suspect their primary tactic from now till the election will try to get people to seen Mal as the beautiful man they want in the lodge and dont you worry about grubby things like policy that’s all too hard we’ll look after you….oh isn’t the PM such a nice man and Julie has such nice shoes…
And of course the media will help out with a will. 🙁
Still..the Libs as a party have fwarked things up before. Lets see how Mal shapes up with ScoMo as his main man. 🙂
Bemused – I’m a militant anti-smoker too – seriously. But I’m not going to give that sort of patronising advice to a homeless guy who has enough problems and isn’t going to give up smoking anyway.
Am I missing something or is the AEC not showing results by booth?
can’t find it on the AEC site, but ABC is showing. But ABC results are lagging.
PG – Go for it.
8% would be a very comforting swing for Labor immediately after the Turnbull bounce.
Jimmy,
Shorten is a punchline. Australia is just writing the joke. As much as I loathe those who think they can replace society with a market, Shorten has all the appeal of rotting fish guts on a summers day at the beach. Very few Australians give a shit about politics. The media have outsourced it to a beauty pageant for ugly people. Try and have a sensible discussion with a member of the public about any area of policy you could care to mention and you will immediately encounter ignorance, prejudice, canards, urban myths and outright lies.
In this Australia Turnbull can do what he likes. No one cares what he’s done to the NBN. Shorten is a bore, which is a greater sin than wrecking IT infrastructure, destroying working conditions and dismantling education. We live in an age of celebrity where how rich you are and how good looking you are is the measure of your worth to society.
This society would never have created a Fred Hollows. It took Whitlam’s generation to do that. The current crop of personality disordered numpties will allow the corporate sector to fleece us of everything that is noble good and worthwhile. They’ve done it to sport in this country, and if they can do it to sport, they can do it to anything.
If moral midgets like Shorten can cast such a long shadow, it shows just how late in the day we are.
The AEC is reporting a 7.59% swing to Labor on TPP with 11.85% counted of the TPP. If this holds, Labor will be very happy, regardless of the spin from the media.
TPOF@121
It is not so much a ‘Turnbull effect’ as an ‘Abbot gone effect’.
We need some exposure to Turnbull to assess what effect he is having.
Depending on how often Turnbull visits the area, he might have known the guy, often regular homeless people can be known by sight even without ever meeting them.
Anyone want to hazard a guess as to whether Hastie enhanced or detracted from the Lib campaign?
IW:
Brilliant!
[Anyone want to hazard a guess as to whether Hastie enhanced or detracted from the Lib campaign?]
I think he should’ve referred more to his personal background more, such as his military experience and his hatred of certain scientific theories.
K17 – about even, I’d say. Some things about him would have appealed, some would have put people off. For all the guff from both he and Keogh, nobody believes local issues or the local candidates decided this poll. It was simply whether enough people could stomach supporting the LNP again, and clearly with Turnbull in charge they’re going to get over the line.
Travis – as it would be off-topic to respond to your post here, I’ll respond on the main thread.
If the threat of a 10% swing was enough to bring down one PM then a swing of 7-8% is not a ringing endorsement of the new one.
Why would you call it this early?
If the swing stays at around 8% my prediction was 2%too low
Nice work Inner Westie 🙂
Because if there was going to be a 12% electorate wide swing, it’d be on already.
It’s not, so there won’t be.
Not sure it can be called an endorsement of the new leader, I think Bemused is right to point out that its more a thank heavens Tony is gone factor than a pro Turnbull
Good to see the Pirate Party out polling the Liberal Democrats and Family First.
Also good to see that Rise Up Australia Party hasn’t received a single vote yet.
JD, fair ’nuff. Was just swinging with the zeitgeist.
B.C.
Very difficult for Rise Up Australia to get many votes as they are not running in this election.
“@sspencer_63: @rharris334 no. The swing to Randall in 13 was simply the unwinding of the huge swing to ALP in 10 when Mactiernan was the candidate”