Two-party: full preference estimate
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| ANDREW HASTIE (Liberal) | 36933 | 54.4% | 54.8% | -7.0% |
| MATT KEOGH (Labor) | 30989 | 45.6% | 45.2% | +7.0% |
Primary vote
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| Liberal | 34291 | 46.4% | 46.7% | -4.4% |
| Labor | 26544 | 35.9% | 36.2% | +9.5% |
| Greens | 4479 | 6.1% | 6.0% | -1.4% |
| Palmer United | 2264 | 3.1% | 2.3% | -4.6% |
| Family First | 531 | 0.7% | 0.8% | -0.5% |
| Australian Christians | 2280 | 3.1% | 2.8% | -0.3% |
| Others | 3519 | 4.8% | 5.1% | +1.5% |
| Formal | 73908 | |||
| % of enrolled voters | 65.5% | |||
| % of projected turnout | 89.2% | |||
| Booths counted (of 46) | 46 |
Two-party: raw count
| # | % | Prefs | Pref. Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 40600 | 54.9% | 48.3% | -0.6% |
| LABOR | 33307 | 45.1% | 51.7% | +0.6% |
| Formal | 73907 | |||
| % of enrolled voters | 65.5% | |||
| % of projected turnout | 89.2% | |||
| Booths counted (of 46) | 46 |
City of Armadale booths
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 15490 | 49.2% | 49.2% | -9.3% |
| LABOR | 16025 | 50.8% | 50.8% | +9.3% |
| Booths counted (of 18) | 18 |
City of Mandurah booths
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 10868 | 58.3% | 58.3% | -3.3% |
| LABOR | 7765 | 41.7% | 41.7% | +3.3% |
| Booths counted (of 10) | 10 |
Other booths
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 10575 | 59.5% | 59.5% | -6.7% |
| LABOR | 7199 | 40.5% | 40.5% | +6.7% |
| Booths counted (of 18) | 18 |
Concluding summary
In political terms, the result is anti-climactic, in that the swing is neither a triumph nor a disaster for either side. However, it’s interesting to note that the swing was concentrated in Armadale, given that a lot more suburban territory cut from the same socio-economic cloth sits beyond the electorate’s northern boundaries, in Hasluck and the newly drafted seat of Burt, both of which are marginal Liberal. Another standout factor from the results is that the non-major party vote was down on the last election, contrary to the usual by-election form. The drop in the Greens vote can only partly be explained by competition from Animal Justice and the Pirate Party, and the loss of two third of the Palmer United vote wasn’t entirely matched by an increase for other right-of-centre minor parties. Contrary to the indications of some polling, Labor’s share of preferences was essentially unchanged.
Live count commentary
10.15pm. Results above are final for the night, there evidently being no counting of postals this evening. The results include two pre-poll voting centres – Armadale, which is included in the booth-matching calculations as the centre was in use at the 2013 election, and Mandurah, which isn’t and wasn’t.
9.01pm. The Armadale pre-poll voting centre — which along of the PPVCs I’m including in my booth-matching results projections, since it’s the only one that was in use at the 2013 election — has pushed the Labor swing over 7%. It will be interesting to see if there’s a general pattern of Labor performing better on pre-polls, since part of the vote will have been cast before the leadership change. Conversely, this may just be the oft-cited Armadale swing in action.
8.44pm. Two more results added, typical of the whole in being a strong result for Labor from Armadale and a weak one from Mandurah.
8.41pm. Still to report: two large booths at Halls Head in Mandurah; two Armadale booths, plus two others are yet to report two-party preferred; and in the vicinity of Armadale, full results from Harrisdale, and two-party from Byford.
8.32pm. More Armadale-heavy data has added a further increment to the Labor swing, although outstanding booths from Halls Head in Mandurah may well rein it back.
8.27pm. The addition of some further results from Armadale, where the swing is approaching 10%, has added half a point to the projected Labor swing.
8.22pm. I’ve been progressively adding newly reporting booths without comment, there being no surprises.
8.02pm. A very soft result for the Greens, who have gone backwards, and the minor party vote in general. Modest though it may be, Labor has at least achieved its two-party swing off its own steam.
8.00pm. Contrary to my expectations, the results have come in at a bewilderingly fast clip. But the swing has stayed around 6%, and the impression of a swing strongest in Armadale and weakest in Mandurah has been consistent.
7.49pm. I strongly suspect the AEC has the Labor and Liberal vote in Boddington entered the wrong way round. Otherwise there’s been a 40% swing there.
7.42pm. Five booths in from Armadale and now and three for Mandurah, and so for the swing in the latter looks to be the smaller. Despite that, the swing projection has remained been pretty stable at around 6%.
7.32pm. Fair bit of surgery required there on my results display, but I think it’s in order now. The swing Labor looks to be headed for is about 6%. It doesn’t seem that their preference share has picked up at all.
7.18pm. A fairly solid 11 booths in now, and I’ve had the swing at around 8% for a little while now. Antony Green only says 6%, but he’s less aggressive than me in extracting projections from incomplete results.
7.10pm. Three booths have been added on the 2PP vote, and these results are now being used to project preference flows on to booths that have reported the primary vote only.
7.05pm. A bunch of booths in now, including a couple from the larger centres, and the swing is looking stable so far — but I’m still going off 2013 election preferences. I’ll sort that out in a minute.
6.53pm. Carcoola and Dandalup North booths added on primary vote — so still only booths from the smaller semi-rural centres.
6.35pm. Still a lot I’m trying to work out here, but we’ve got primary votes in from the Preston Beach booth, and from that very small data point I’m projecting a result in line with expectations.
6pm. Polls have closed, so welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Canning by-election count. The table below will be updated as the numbers are reported to track both the raw vote and projections based on booth-matching and preference trends. With 12 candidates in the count, progress might be a bit slow. There are some small semi-rural booths in the electorate, and we should be hearing from these first in about an hour.
Carcoola and North Dandalup in now – over %8 swing away from Liberals on primaries
Why is PUP still getting votes?
But the libertarians aren’t
On smartphone so there will be typos. I
Dwellingup in and Liberal primary percentage up, primary swing away from Liberals down to %6.7.
Now Bedfordale and Mandurah in – Liberal primary down 4.79 on 2013
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust 9m9 minutes ago
Julie Bishop, Mathias Cormann, Michaelia Cash, Michael Keenan have all arrived at Andrew Hastie’s election night party. #canningvotes
No sign of Turnbull, gives pretty much a kick to the voters.
ABC saying 57.5 – 42.5. Just a 4.3% swing lemmings.
Zoid
Shaping up as a fun gathering
Hastie getting a strong flow of preferences from the Christian Fascist party.
Let’s be fair to Turnbull. He’s a new PM with a huge job to get up and running with minimal cooperation with the outgoing PM and staff. He is also finalising his Cabinet. Hardly fair to expect him to be in Canning is it?
Lorax, that’s what the vote count is saying at the moment as well.
The Lorax
Its a bit early to be getting excited in a seat that the Liberals should win.
I am Calling it for the LIBS
[ABC saying 57.5 – 42.5. Just a 4.3% swing lemmings.]
53.6 – 44.4% – 8.2% swing to Labor.
Hastie could well win this on Christian Party votes – the old Call To Australia Party.
They just keep on keeping on – just ask anyone whose had to put up with Fred Nile!
Lorax – that’s with less than 5% of the vote counted. Way to early for pronouncements like that.
Zoidy
Its kind of a non issue, if Turnbull had been leader for a few weeks or months then it might be more of an issue.
SHows on – that was earlier numbers
alias@61
Rule 1 – turnbull comes first
rules 2 -20,000 – See Rule 1
alias:
The media incl ABC lets itself down by constantly referring to Canning as a “crucial” by-election, only to not dedicate its 24hr news channel to covering it.
57
Stupid
[I am Calling it for the LIBS]
No shit?! 😆
Dudley Park and Forrestdale in now – 4.8 swing away from Liberal on primaries.
Would like to see some Armadale booths!
I think it’s funny that neither Hastie nor Keogh can vote for themselves.
AEC TPP has no raw numbers to go on, so I am taking it with a grain of salt, currently bouncing around 4-5 percent swing on small booths.
Travis Bickle@74
Strong Lib areas last time.
ABC website has ONE booth result! Has Antony’s computer had a meltdown, again?
TB @ 78
I had that problem. I closed the screen down and went back in through the ABC site.
Swing to ALP of %8.2 on primaries, just under %5 of vote counted.
I wonder how Hastie will go at Karnet Prison Farm, there was a mobile booth based there according to the AEC.
Have tried to watch ABC it’s like having teeth pulled.
What is Hastie’s position on hand-outs?
Dio
Greens candidate Vanessa Rauland lives in Freo and can’t vote either. Who knows if any of the candidates live in the electorate.
Would it be timely for a bit of the usual triumphalism from the Greens?
Lorax
OK I have decided you are NOT a troll. I actually agree there is a problem, but I think changing leaders is not a sensible option. If the libs has hung on to Abbott and it was still touch anf go about Labor winning, then I would have agreed.
At the moment I say hold fire.
Armadale south in, along with Coolup, Jarrahdale and lake Clifton – primary swing away from Liberal is now %4.49, primary swing to ALP of %7.91.
Libs on 49.38 primary with over %5 counted now.
4.7% national swing would be a labor government in a land slide.
PUP votes returning to Libs – PUP primary down %3.5.
frednk – it’s a byelection
84
Shurely the Stable Population Party candidate lives in the area and would never leave. Anything else would be unstable.
[
Travis Bickle
Posted Saturday, September 19, 2015 at 9:17 pm | Permalink
frednk – it’s a byelection
]
Vert good full marks.
Waroona in – 3.93 swing away from Liberals, swing to ALP of 8.2, on primaries of course. Just under %8 counted now. Hastie on %49.53.
The Lorax posts elsewhere, it’s no troll.
Opinionated for sure, but who here isn’t!? 🙂
5-6% swing to the ALP. Ho Hum. Accounted for by Turnbullshit for the ALP, and validation Turnbull popularity in the beauty contest for the Libs.
Now the question becomes…Can Mal actually do policy, or is he as crippled as his predecessor in that dept??
Turnbull on Walkabout:
Homeless man: “Do you have a cigarette.”
Lord Turnbull: “I don’t smoke, and you should give up.”
There’s empathy for you.
.
There ws a %13 swing against the ALP at Waroona in 2013, so not their strongest booth!
daretotread@86
Rudd got the measure of Turnbull so perhaps some advice from KR would be in order.
imacca, I think the bigger question is – does a disengaged electorate even vote on policy anymore?
[ 4.7% national swing would be a labor government in a land slide. ]
Careful…that will bump up the shrill levels from ESJ / CC / TBA.
Not losing canning is really their first good political news in how long?? 🙂