Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The recovery in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings from the previous poll has proved to be short-lived, but there’s otherwise very little change to report from the latest Newspoll.

The Australian has served up a static result from Newspoll, with the two-party preferred unchanged on a fortnight ago at 54-46, from primary votes of 39% for the Coalition (up one), 39% for Labor (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down one). The one exception is that the recovery in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings recorded in the last poll has proved to be painfully short-lived, with his approval down four points to 30% and disapproval at 58%. Tony Abbott, on the other hand, is unchanged on both measures, with approval at 30% and disapproval at 63%. Preferred prime minister is at 41-37 in favour of Shorten, compared with 40-35 last time. The poll also finds 43% supporting the China free-trade agreement with 35% opposed. I understand there was also a question on the trade union royal commission, but they may be holding back on that one.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan, which combines two weekends of polling conducted by face-to-face and SMS, with a total sample of 2653, has the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 36.5%, but with Labor also down half a point to 35.5% – leaving room for the Greens to soar 2.5% to a record high of 16.5%. A weaker flow to Labor of respondent-allocated preferences means there is only a modest change on the headline two-party preferred figure, which goes from 54.5-45.5 to 55-45. On 2013 election preferences flows, the shift is from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): No change whatsoever in Essential Research this week, unless you count a shift in “others” from 10% and 9% that makes no difference to any other party due to rounding effects, or a one-point gain for the Nationals at the expense of the Liberals. This leaves Labor with a lead of 52-48, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 2% for Palmer United. We also get Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Tony Abbott slumping five points on approval to 33% with disapproval up four to 57%, Bill Shorten steady on 29% approval and down two on disapproval to 50% (his short-lived spike after the Dyson Heydon controversy presumably having passed Essential’s monthly series by), and Shorten taking a lead on preferred prime minister for the first time since March, at 35-32 compared with a 36-32 lead for Abbott last time.

The poll also gauged approval for Joe Hockey, who recorded an improvement when the question was last asked in the wake of the May budget, but is now back to his ear worst with approval down four to 30% and and disapproval up eight to 52%. Questions on the trade union royal commission found 42% saying Dyson Heydon should stand down as trade union royal commissioner, compared with 32% who thought he should continue, and 36% believing the royal commission to be biased against unions, the ALP or both, compared with only 29% who rated it as unbiased. Respondents were also asked if they would “support or oppose cutting income tax and raising the GST to 15%”, with 52% coming down as opposed compared with only 27% in favour.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,719 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  3. It just illustrates the authoriatarian and anti-democratic instincts of the Government, including the Postmaster General (Malcolm Turnbull), that they apparently think that the national broadcaster should provide them with a propaganda service. Especially, I might add, when they already have Newscrap.

  6. The ABC Christmas party will be fun as they watch the outtakes from that interview of Abbott.

    Mark Scott should think about selling tickets as a fundraiser

  8. Well that was 15 minutes I won’t get back.

    Sales was pretty respectful considering the arrant bullshit he was peddling.

    Abbott doesn’t look well.

  9. The consensus seems to be that Abbott 730 interview was a train-wreck. I dunno.

    He had a really nice blue tie.

    Now I’m really leaving. Anyone seen my car keys? I hope I didn’t give them to LGB.

  10. Victoria @1643:

    [Peter van Onselen
    Peter van Onselen – Verified account ‏@vanOnselenP

    @StupidLaborVote nah I’ll be advocating for the govt getting a second term. Bc I think govts need two terms. They have been disappointing
    1:55 AM – 9 Sep 2015
    1 RETWEET2 FAVORITES]

    Quelle surprise. Peter Van Onselen would endorse Jack the Ripper if he was the Liberal Party leader…and it’d even be a moral step upward!

  11. [“How did Tony Abbott handle the “Why are you now encouraging queue-jumpers?” question.”]

    The people we are taking are not Queue Jumpers… they are from the Queue… camps in Turkey, Jordan, etc/

    Queue Jumpers are the ones heading into Europe(mainly young men)

  12. Steve777 @1653:

    [It just illustrates the authoriatarian and anti-democratic instincts of the Government, including the Postmaster General (Malcolm Turnbull), that they apparently think that the national broadcaster should provide them with a propaganda service. Especially, I might add, when they already have Newscrap.]

    It’s not just more propaganda the Lieberal Party wants – it’s total information control. Removal of all critics, criticism and critical thinking from the airwaves.

  13. Oh, look – TBA’s around. Hey, TBA – I have a question for you.

    To paraphrase Leigh Sales tonight: What would your response have been if the ABC had spent the term of the Gillard Government trying to “boost Australia”, as Tony Abbott has just asked them to do?

  14. [“To paraphrase Leigh Sales tonight: What would your response have been if the ABC had spent the term of the Gillard Government trying to “boost Australia”, as Tony Abbott has just asked them to do?”]

    Not too sure what you are on about… BUT…

    Refugees have always been welcome in Australia, with the prerequisite that they are invited here and aren’t self selecting via people smuggler and jumping the back fence.

  15. It was a very weak interview by Abbott, but using his own awful standards it was not a trainwreck. That category is reserved for the likes of the interview when he started making distinctions about truths you write down and truths you say when you don’t really mean them. Or the “shit happens” interview with Mark Riley.

    Those were train wrecks. This one was very weak.

  20. TBA @1664:

    [Not too sure what you are on about… BUT…

    Refugees have always been welcome in Australia, with the prerequisite that they are invited here and aren’t self selecting via people smuggler and jumping the back fence.]

    About as on-topic as Cap’n Chaos was on the 7:30 Report, TBA.

    I’ll repeat – this is the question I’m asking of you, with your well-known dislike of the ABC:

    [To paraphrase Leigh Sales tonight: What would your response have been if the ABC had spent the term of the Gillard Government trying to “boost Australia”, as Tony Abbott has just asked them to do?]

    Let’s not fudge around, TBA. Tony Abbott just asked the ABC to talk Australia up on behalf of his Government – what would you have said if the ABC had done that in response to a request from the previous Government?

  22. @TBA/1661

    LOL They are not queue jumpers?

    You blamed Labor for boats for queue jumpers, but now a direct goverment sponsored (paid for – by tax payers) to Australia for 12,000 of them.

  23. Lefty e @1669:

    [The Newman government clearly didn’t deserve two terms. Nor the Napthine/ Bailieu one.

    What makes Tones so special, PvO?? :)]

    Well, he’s far more incompetent, dishonest and cowardly than either of them. But I doubt that’s the kind of “special” that PvO would appreciate.

  25. TBA:

    “To paraphrase Leigh Sales tonight: What would your response have been if the ABC had spent the term of the Gillard Government trying to “boost Australia”, as Tony Abbott has just asked them to do?”

    Not too sure what you are on about… BUT…

    Refugees have always been welcome in Australia, with the prerequisite that they are invited here and aren’t self selecting via people smuggler and jumping the back fence.

    That’s funny. TBA just might be Abbott himself.

  26. [adrian
    Posted Wednesday, September 9, 2015 at 10:05 pm | PERMALINK
    Utopia is brilliant, preceded by possibly the worst programme on TV, How Not To Behave. Best and worse of ABC on the same night.]

    Not tonight. It was preceded by Gruen, one of the best programmes. 🙂

  29. Just watched the Sales/Abbott interview.

    Christ almighty, that man is hopeless. He has the biggest capacity for self-delusion that I have ever seen in any human being.

    Boat, Carbon Tax, Safe Communities, CFMEU, Labor and Bill Shorten… doe this bloke realize it 2015, not 2010?

  31. [“How is crossing the ocean, going through processing and political crap, jumping the back fence ?”]

    It’s like if I came to your house.

    I could be invited to your place, knock on the front door and be asked in.

    Alternatively I could jump your back fence, smash in your back door and invite myself in.

    You’d be happy about the first but pissed about the second.

  32. @TBA, 1681

    The latter doesn’t take processing into account (which means we get to choose if we let them in or not, or put them on Manus/Nauru indefinitely etc) and is more like what would happen in a warlike situation, say, if, the asylum seekers declared war on us. I don’t think that’s a good analogy

  34. [“The latter doesn’t take processing into account “]

    Not quite correct.

    Iranians made up the largest group of illegal arrivals in 2013. Isn’t that interesting seeing as Iran is at war with no one?

    Anyways.. Iran has a policy of not allowing forced repartiations.. in other words, we can never, ever, ever return illegals no matter their refugee status outcome.

    This rule has only just changed thanks to the work of Julie Bishop and you will be happy to know we can now send these illegals deemed NOT to be refugees home

  35. Sorry, but I have to respond to TBMoron.

    International law. http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49da0e466.html

    We don’t “invite” refugees. When your neighbour’s house burns down and you’re not home, do you expect them to stand outside in the nudd, or can they come in to use the phone?

    Australia hasn’t been at home to refugees since Tampa. We’ve treated them like insurance agents. “Sorry, can’t hear you, there’s an awful lot of gunfire in the background, I’ll just put you on hold.”

  36. [ “The latter doesn’t take processing into account ”

    Not quite correct.

    Iranians made up the largest group of illegal arrivals in 2013. Isn’t that interesting seeing as Iran is at war with no one?

    Anyways.. Iran has a policy of not allowing forced repartiations.. in other words, we can never, ever, ever return illegals no matter their refugee status outcome.

    This rule has only just changed thanks to the work of Julie Bishop and you will be happy to know we can now send these illegals deemed NOT to be refugees home ]

    That’s not what I was saying and you took what I meant off on a completely different tangent. We don’t just let asylum seekers into the country, we put them into mandatory processing instead. In your analogy they just went straight through the window. You’re ignoring the fact that any asylum seeker who arrives in Australia via boat will have to go through mandatory processing and then we accept them on our own terms – ie through the front door.

  39. TBA:

    It’s like if I came to your house.

    I could be invited to your place, knock on the front door and be asked in.

    Alternatively I could jump your back fence, smash in your back door and invite myself in.

    You’d be happy about the first but pissed about the second.

    Actually, it’s more like you’re a member of the local Safety House Program.

    You have the Safety House plaque on your letterbox letting everyone know that your house is a safe place to go in times of danger (Refugee Convention). Then one day someone is being attacked at the end of your street. They manage to escape the attacker and looking around see that your house is the only one in the street marked as a Safety House. So this person running from danger gets to your house anyway they can, jumps your fence, runs around to the back door and begs you for help.

    You would have to be a pretty terrible person to voluntarily sign up for the Safety House program, promise to give sanctuary to anyone who really needs it, specifically agree to help someone even if they jump your fence and knock on your backdoor and having done everything they are supposed to do you turn them away, shutting the door in their face and leaving them in danger or even worse, you falsely accuse them of breaking a nonexistent law and lock them up in your back shed, threatening to leave them there forever unless they agree to be handed over to the person trying to attack them. Actually, you’d more than terrible, you’d be morally bankrupt or in other words an average supporter of the Liberal Party.

  40. KB @ 87 Take it a step further. Announce the poll ahead of time, release full results. Otherwise the dud ones get filtered out. Medical folks consider this best practice. Otherwise “51% say they feel better after being whacked by a mallet” discarding those who were too comatose to answer.

  41. TBA again:

    [Iranians made up the largest group of illegal arrivals in 2013. Isn’t that interesting seeing as Iran is at war with no one?]

    No, it’s not interesting at all because war is not included in the definition of a refugee as articulated in Article 1 of the Convention. People escaping war are displaced persons not refugees. To be a refugee you have to have a well founded fear of persecution, be outside the country in which you fear such persecution and get yourself anyway you can to a country that is a signatory to the Refugee Convention. What is interesting is Article 31 of the Convention specially prohibits discriminating against or punishing a refugee for entering a Convention State without authorisation. Yet that is precisely what we do with mandatory detention being a blatant contravention of the commitments we’ve made to the world. Thanks to Howard and now Abbott, Australia’s word is worth nothing.

  42. BB @ 1679
    Abbott has always had difficulty accepting responsibility. He bagged the gummint for months after he was elected. Peta’s trained him to say “Labor” now, but it took a while.

  43. Richard Koser@1690

    KB @ 87 Take it a step further. Announce the poll ahead of time, release full results. Otherwise the dud ones get filtered out. Medical folks consider this best practice. Otherwise “51% say they feel better after being whacked by a mallet” discarding those who were too comatose to answer.

    Announcing studies ahead of time is great scientific practice and in science I’d like to see much more of it. It helps fix problems like p-hacking for significance and non-publication of negative results.

    With polls there is a reason not to do it. If a pollster announces they are doing a poll on something, a bigger pollster might come along and steal their poll topic and outcompete them. But real-time disclosure (ie poll disclosed at the time of reporting and full report must be linked or referred to) sounds good to me.

  48. L G H has won a rare distinction.

    I will be reinstalling STFU and listing him in it.

    The last person to achieve this honour was the idiotic Finigans.

  49. KB @93 good point but there’s a work-around. “I’m doing a poll on these dates. Questions, client? In this sealed envelope. Open after polling.” No IP issues, full disclosure.

    Worked for that Hollywood movie about quiz shows.

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