Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The recovery in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings from the previous poll has proved to be short-lived, but there’s otherwise very little change to report from the latest Newspoll.

The Australian has served up a static result from Newspoll, with the two-party preferred unchanged on a fortnight ago at 54-46, from primary votes of 39% for the Coalition (up one), 39% for Labor (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down one). The one exception is that the recovery in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings recorded in the last poll has proved to be painfully short-lived, with his approval down four points to 30% and disapproval at 58%. Tony Abbott, on the other hand, is unchanged on both measures, with approval at 30% and disapproval at 63%. Preferred prime minister is at 41-37 in favour of Shorten, compared with 40-35 last time. The poll also finds 43% supporting the China free-trade agreement with 35% opposed. I understand there was also a question on the trade union royal commission, but they may be holding back on that one.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan, which combines two weekends of polling conducted by face-to-face and SMS, with a total sample of 2653, has the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 36.5%, but with Labor also down half a point to 35.5% – leaving room for the Greens to soar 2.5% to a record high of 16.5%. A weaker flow to Labor of respondent-allocated preferences means there is only a modest change on the headline two-party preferred figure, which goes from 54.5-45.5 to 55-45. On 2013 election preferences flows, the shift is from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): No change whatsoever in Essential Research this week, unless you count a shift in “others” from 10% and 9% that makes no difference to any other party due to rounding effects, or a one-point gain for the Nationals at the expense of the Liberals. This leaves Labor with a lead of 52-48, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 2% for Palmer United. We also get Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Tony Abbott slumping five points on approval to 33% with disapproval up four to 57%, Bill Shorten steady on 29% approval and down two on disapproval to 50% (his short-lived spike after the Dyson Heydon controversy presumably having passed Essential’s monthly series by), and Shorten taking a lead on preferred prime minister for the first time since March, at 35-32 compared with a 36-32 lead for Abbott last time.

The poll also gauged approval for Joe Hockey, who recorded an improvement when the question was last asked in the wake of the May budget, but is now back to his ear worst with approval down four to 30% and and disapproval up eight to 52%. Questions on the trade union royal commission found 42% saying Dyson Heydon should stand down as trade union royal commissioner, compared with 32% who thought he should continue, and 36% believing the royal commission to be biased against unions, the ALP or both, compared with only 29% who rated it as unbiased. Respondents were also asked if they would “support or oppose cutting income tax and raising the GST to 15%”, with 52% coming down as opposed compared with only 27% in favour.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,719 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. I inhabit both Pollbludger and The Pub. I enjoy both, for different reasons.

    I do not run either down on the other.

    I enjoy PB and the PUB, I like the serious and the lighter issues, the interesting people with different experiences and backgrounds, and the views in both places.

    PB is in the majority a pseph site, although it covers everything from test cricket to the elections in Madagascar (OK, probably not Madagascar.) I have always enjoyed the place, or why would I be visiting here several times, every day?

    The Pub is a blog for people of a progressive bent, narrower in focus than PB, with less discussion of polls, and of a more magazine style. Again the people are great, the topics interesting. I had a thread starter published if you will forgive a bit of self promotion. And I like to think it is not to bad for a bunch of amateurs. I really like the people.

    Now I have enough time for more than one blog and appreciate the comments and online, and now offline, friendships forged from both. I am not the only one who posts on both sites.

    So I wish them both much success.

    Oh, there is one thing. At The Pub, I can say something nice about FPM Julia Gillard without being mugged.

  2. P.S.
    William, thank you for all the work and effort you put into this blog. Pollbludger is a credit to you. I enjoy it an consider it a part of my life.

    Joe6pack, Fiona and Bushfire Bill, also deserve congratulations for turning a short term Xmas carry-over when PB was closed, into a long-term addition to the list of Progressive blogs. There can never be too many of them.

  3. [It’s like if I came to your house.

    I could be invited to your place, knock on the front door and be asked in.

    Alternatively I could jump your back fence, smash in your back door and invite myself in.

    You’d be happy about the first but pissed about the second.]

    The major problem with this analogy is they aren’t kicking the door in and wandering around my house they’re thousands of miles away on a boat hoping to land safely somewhere and be given some shelter.

    This is a pile of old bollox. I notice how you escalated the fear factor of your metaphor from jumping a fence into breaking in. WE all know don’t we really seeking asylum is alot like murder

    … and cannibalism.

    And thats what asylum seekers are really doing isn’t it. Breaking into our house eating our babies flesh and drinking their blood then having pillow fights with the skeletons. Death Cult Daesh aylum seekers deathculdeasrrrsshhhhhhhhhhhgarrrrghhhhhhgle.

  4. Just watched Sales/Abbott.

    Only a paid sycophant could spin that as any kind of positive performance by the PM. No doubt massive pressure is being applied to the RAAF to get him a big kill this week in time for his boy in Canning.

    He better hope they don’t accidentally take out a school. But I guess if that happened it would be censored until it broke overseas to try to buy a couple of days.

    Meanwhile his government is only delivering economic, environmental and social vandalism. Abbott barely answered a single question Sales put to him. Because he can’t.

    Abbott’s performance was both confronting and disturbing. We are in a whole lot of trouble while this bloke remains PM.

  5. Yep Jules,

    The relentlessness of the message; stopping the boats, death cult, carbon tax, mining tax, cfmeu, pink batts…

    But zero on what the economic statistics are actually telling us or what the plan is for this new war.

  6. Now we are going to bomb the death cult I think the nation should show support #putoutyourbudgies

    Need to get me a pair of red ones to nail to the tree in the front yard. Let everyone know I am a patriot and all. Might even garnish them with a yellow ribbon for our boys and gals in the RAAF. Poor bastards.

  7. Well I managed to watch that through a second time. Why did I do that to myself?

    I guess it is know thy enemy and you are stronger. Something like that.

    So many things come to mind the way Abbott ducks and dives and obfuscates in these rare and always pre-recorded interviews. True he has got pretty good basic debating skills (in terms of keeping going regardless of bits falling off his arguments). Not mention mastery of creating straw men and fashioning unicorns. And some weird kind of crusader shtick.

    But to people worried about their or their loved ones’ jobs that was a piss poor effort.

  8. Hmm can I bare to watch it a third time? …. Nup.

    This is a resilient opponent no matter how absurd. Underestimate it (with its support by Uncle Rupert) at your peril.

    Some great takes from that interview to belt my few still pro-liberal acquaintances with.

    People in Canning and everywhere else for that matter will be reassured about their future economic well-being – not.

  9. The campaign for Canning has been a contest between the dollars of the LNP and the human efforts of Labor and the unions.

    A significant factor in the result will be the increase in enrollment, which has added about 15,000 new voters in the last two years. Many of these will be concentrated in the Labor-favourable areas around Armadale. This will help off-set the Liberals’ dominance in the rural south of the seat and their strength in the more affluent areas on the coast.

    To win the seat, Labor also has to win well in the age cohorts up to 55 yo. We will soon see if the Labor-Union efforts to win support among these voters has worked sufficiently well.

    [Dear briefly,

    This Saturday, Bill Shorten and I are joining local workers in Canning to take a stand against Tony Abbott and the Liberals’ threats to cut ​weekend and ​penalty ​pay ​rates.

    Weekends still mean something in Australia. A night out with family, watching the footy or playing with your kids.

    But for the people who serve us in shops and restaurants, who care for our elderly and drive our ambulances, weekends are another workday.

    Weekend and penalty rates are compensation for working when everyone else is relaxing and enjoying time with family and friends.

    With these rates under threat, we need to come together to save our weekend.

    Join Bill and me this Saturday to stand up for weekend rates for Western Australian workers.

    Where: Memorial Park, Jull St, Armadale
    When: 11​am on Saturday 12 September

    Please spread the word – see you there!


    Matt Keogh
    Local Labor Candidate for Canning]

  10. I salute your efforts Briefly, and may I add everyone here working for an Abbott/ultra conservative free Australia

    maybe you could ask the Canning folks to watch Captain Phoney on Iview ignore and rebuke the facts on the Economy put to him by Sales on 7.30 last night.

    That would push me back to Labor, (or anyone but Hastie) if I’d voted Lib in 2013 first time.

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