The Australian has served up a static result from Newspoll, with the two-party preferred unchanged on a fortnight ago at 54-46, from primary votes of 39% for the Coalition (up one), 39% for Labor (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down one). The one exception is that the recovery in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings recorded in the last poll has proved to be painfully short-lived, with his approval down four points to 30% and disapproval at 58%. Tony Abbott, on the other hand, is unchanged on both measures, with approval at 30% and disapproval at 63%. Preferred prime minister is at 41-37 in favour of Shorten, compared with 40-35 last time. The poll also finds 43% supporting the China free-trade agreement with 35% opposed. I understand there was also a question on the trade union royal commission, but they may be holding back on that one.
UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan, which combines two weekends of polling conducted by face-to-face and SMS, with a total sample of 2653, has the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 36.5%, but with Labor also down half a point to 35.5% leaving room for the Greens to soar 2.5% to a record high of 16.5%. A weaker flow to Labor of respondent-allocated preferences means there is only a modest change on the headline two-party preferred figure, which goes from 54.5-45.5 to 55-45. On 2013 election preferences flows, the shift is from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5.
UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): No change whatsoever in Essential Research this week, unless you count a shift in others from 10% and 9% that makes no difference to any other party due to rounding effects, or a one-point gain for the Nationals at the expense of the Liberals. This leaves Labor with a lead of 52-48, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 2% for Palmer United. We also get Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Tony Abbott slumping five points on approval to 33% with disapproval up four to 57%, Bill Shorten steady on 29% approval and down two on disapproval to 50% (his short-lived spike after the Dyson Heydon controversy presumably having passed Essential’s monthly series by), and Shorten taking a lead on preferred prime minister for the first time since March, at 35-32 compared with a 36-32 lead for Abbott last time.
The poll also gauged approval for Joe Hockey, who recorded an improvement when the question was last asked in the wake of the May budget, but is now back to his ear worst with approval down four to 30% and and disapproval up eight to 52%. Questions on the trade union royal commission found 42% saying Dyson Heydon should stand down as trade union royal commissioner, compared with 32% who thought he should continue, and 36% believing the royal commission to be biased against unions, the ALP or both, compared with only 29% who rated it as unbiased. Respondents were also asked if they would support or oppose cutting income tax and raising the GST to 15%, with 52% coming down as opposed compared with only 27% in favour.