BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

No change whatsoever in this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, the most interesting feature of which for the moment is that the Palmer United vote is finally edging back upwards.

The two polls released this week, from ReachTEL and Essential Research, both landed bang on trend after bias adjustment, making for a dull old week in the world of BludgerTrack. All changes on the primary and two-party vote are minuscule, the seat projection is exactly as it was last week, and there are no new figures for the leadership ratings. The only thing that’s sort of worth mentioning is a vague stirring in the Palmer United vote, which the model records as peaking at 6.77% in July 2014, then suffering an uninterrupted decline to a low of 1.26% in July 2015, since which time it has recovered to its present level of 1.75%. Those craving a little more excitement from their polling are advised to look to the nearby posts on the Canning by-election and monthly Morgan state poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,715 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  5. Do you think Possum was being hyperbolic?

    Arguably a failing of his, but his critique of the automated phone polling procedure (which Galaxy outsources to ReachTEL) (EDIT: Sorry, I mean Telereach) is worth noting. After a “long and bloviating” introduction, respondents were hit with demographic questions, instead of being gently persuaded that the call wasn’t something they might want to hang up on. The voice spoke too fast and sounded like a robot, making it difficult for people with hearing problems or without English as their first language. The question on state voting intention appeared at the end of the questionnaire, after questions on the TURC and the China FTA, when it should have been near the start. His judgement was that response rates were only like to be about a third as high as the polling he oversees himself.

  6. Talk about an understatement …..

    Newspoll: Tony Abbott marks second anniversary with lower support than election day.

    Any lower & he would be dead buried & cremated

  11. @GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Free-trade agreement with China: Support 43 Oppose 35 #auspol

    Would like to see how they worded the question

  14. 1626
    bemused

    You set a cracking pace and obviously have a good technique.

    We have no time to waste. Committed voters are identified (good for the database). The unsure/receptive are the focus. This time around it’s proving quite easy elicit a response.

    1629
    Unitary State

    briefly

    Nobody in your team should be content with a narrow loss saying it was a double digit swing. You should all be in it to win it.

    I agree. We have to do our best. We are. There is great spirit. We may not win, but it not be for a lack of will…only a lack of time.

    1633
    confessions

    briefly:

    I am in mixed views about by-election night.

    It is going to be tough to win. But if we do, the LNP will break in half. We would be doing the voters of Canning a dis-service if we did not try our best to win. I’ve been looking these people in the face and listening to them, shaking hands with them. A lot of people are very hurt. They want to express that and I’m personally committed to helping them do it.

    1636
    pedant

    briefly: Do you know if the Liberals are doing robocalls?

    I don’t know.

    1647
    Nicholas

    Briefly, does Labor have data on which households in Canning are worth targeting with door knocking and phone calls?

    Yes, and it’s being updated as we go. It’s invaluable.

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