BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

No change whatsoever in this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, the most interesting feature of which for the moment is that the Palmer United vote is finally edging back upwards.

The two polls released this week, from ReachTEL and Essential Research, both landed bang on trend after bias adjustment, making for a dull old week in the world of BludgerTrack. All changes on the primary and two-party vote are minuscule, the seat projection is exactly as it was last week, and there are no new figures for the leadership ratings. The only thing that’s sort of worth mentioning is a vague stirring in the Palmer United vote, which the model records as peaking at 6.77% in July 2014, then suffering an uninterrupted decline to a low of 1.26% in July 2015, since which time it has recovered to its present level of 1.75%. Those craving a little more excitement from their polling are advised to look to the nearby posts on the Canning by-election and monthly Morgan state poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,715 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  2. Morning all. Joe Hockey confirms what we already know – now the ABS has joined the party and is waging a Jihad on the Liberal government.
    [At his press conference Mr Hockey appeared to take issue with the Bureau of Statistics, saying: “It is wrong to say it’s the weakest growth since 1961, it’ is just factually wrong.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/economic-growth-close-to-zero-as-living-standards-slip-20150902-gjdi0t.html#ixzz3kcLcxs4L

    Hockey is not shooting the messenger again – he is just putting the blame squarely where it belongs – at the statisticians that report our economic performance as bad. Those communists!

    Hockey is now rumored to be planning to hire the ex-chief of the Greek Statistics Office to improve the ABS’s performance at proving how great the Australian economy is going. He did fantastic work getting Greece into the EU. Joe believes that he could keep Australia’s AAA credit rating too.

  3. Based purely on performance the Abbott LNP government should be polling under 40. I just don’t get what the voters see in them other than they just can’t admit to voting the wrong lot in in 2013.

  5. NIkki Savva writes in the GG that Abbott is on the nose.

    [Anniversaries are usually a time to celebrate, to reflect on progress, toast any successes, keep mistakes in perspective, promise to do ­better, then lay out goals for the future. Yet here we are almost ­exactly two years into the life of the federal government and Tony Abbott, again, is standing on the cliff edge.

    Those gathered below are urging him to jump, while those behind stand ready to give him a push. Only the most devout are still willing him to succeed, ­desperately praying he will pull back from the brink.

    Most of us believed it when, as opposition leader, he said the soap opera would end and this would be a government of no surprises, no excuses. Most of us thought that as a capable, long-serving cabinet minister in the Howard years, he would at the very least lead a competent administration.

    Few dared to hope for major reform, but instead looked forward to incremental change from a steady, efficient, quiet period of governing. Few people would have thought two years ago that it would have come to this so quickly. But here we are — again — with speculation rampant that the Prime Minister may be forced to throw his Treasurer overboard to save himself, piled on top of speculation about whether he can be saved at all.

    Pretty much everywhere you look the mood is foul. Victorians as well as Tasmanians feel betrayed by the activities of former Liberal Party state director Damien Mantach and those who mentored him. Queenslanders remain stubbornly resistant. The stupidity of Liberal lawyers in NSW left Dyson Heydon and the royal commission into trade unions exposed to charges of bias, undermining its essential role in exposing corruption. Nick Xenophon’s submarine torpedoes threaten previously safe Liberal seats in South Australia.

    In the west, it gets crooker by the day. Not all that long ago Liberal politicians travelling west could count on hoovering up squillions in donations from devoted followers, so many that not all of them could fit into the grand ballrooms hired for the occasion.

    Yet in the lead-up to the Prime Minister’s visit to Perth a fortnight ago, efforts by the Liberal Party to organise a fundraiser began awkwardly and ended in acrimony. The party wanted 10 people to pay $20,000 a head for the privilege of privately meeting Abbott. According to well-placed members of the party, there were only four takers, two of whom were prepared to pay but not attend, so reluctant were they to be in the same room as Abbott — one because he was so disappointed in Abbott for not delivering the stability and confidence he had promised, and the other because despite promises of no new taxes, the government had imposed the high income levy.

    To fill the table, it was decided to halve the price. Those who had paid the full amount were furious when they found out. According to sources they have been demanding half their money back.

    How embarrassment, as Effie would say.

    ]

  7. And who should appear on Alan Jones this morning? The Lying Friar, who is outlining his thoughts in the coming election campaign.

    [@KJBar: PM Abbott: “We are desperate to get spending down. We are desperate to get taxes down.” @2GB873]

    [@KJBar: PM Abbott to Alan Jones: “The next election is going to be an extraordinary fight.” @2GB873]

  8. This is turning into another tour de force

    [@primroseriordan: PM Abbott says problem with some advocating rise in GST is “they want overall burden of tax to go up and that is just wrong” #auspol #2GB]

    [@primroseriordan: Alan Jones responds says PM’s comment is “ideologically brilliant” #auspol #2GB]

  9. sprocket

    Loved that. Paying not to be in the same room!! 😀
    [According to well-placed members of the party, there were only four takers, two of whom were prepared to pay but not attend, so reluctant were they to be in the same room as Abbott]

  10. Sprocket

    Maybe avoiding an Abbott table is a great fundraising opportunity for the Liberals? You can picture the letter now:
    [Dear sir,
    In recognition of your long term loyalty to the Liberal Party of Australia, the party would like to invite you to sit at the dinner table with the Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, when he is in the city next week.
    Alternatively, if you are unable to attend but still wish to show your support for the Party, please donate $20,000 in the enclosed envelope….]

    Seriously, Hockey’s lies aside ( it IS the worst nominal growth figure since 1962) the big end of town must be annoyed with the Abbott government’s economic performance. There is now less money in our economy for them to fleece, thanks to this bumbling duo.

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The government is unable to get its message across and its frustration is showing.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/smart-governments-realise-they-must-find-new-ways-of-communicating-20150902-gjddf8.html
    Peter Martin picks the bones out of the national accounts figures that Hockey cannot or will not see.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/economic-growth-close-to-zero-as-living-standards-slip-20150902-gjdi0t.html
    Another “enterprising” NSW deputy mayor making a name for himself. Seems like a nice sort of guy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/dentist-and-former-deputy-mayor-andrew-istephan-admits-assaulting-elderly-patients-20150902-gjdn40.html
    And another champion of free enterprise!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/failed-financial-guru-anthony-ghalloub-raided-by-police-20150902-gjdt3l.html
    And yet another example of money making rip offs!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/another-patient-rushed-from-the-cosmetic-institute-to-hospital-emergency-unit-20150902-gjde2t.html
    I’m inclined to support a nuclear waste dump for the north of South Australia. We certainly need a boost of some kind.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nuclear-waste-dumps-abbott-government-close-to-releasing-shortlist-of-possible-sites-20150902-gjdlo3.html
    This is NOT what Barnaby wanted to hear. Bring it on!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-windsor-poised-to-challenge-barnaby-joyce-for-new-england-20150902-gjde6t.html
    More death throe actions from 7-Eleven.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/7eleven-puts-more-than-100-stores-on-life-support-20150902-gjdjtf.html
    Geelong Grammar is being shown to be a shocker through the CA Royal Commission hearings.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/02/australian-school-geelong-grammar-prince-charles-dismissed-sexual-abuse-claims
    The Huffington Post says that the report from the Child Abuse Royal Commission handed to the government this week should be made public immediately.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2015/09/02/child-sex-abuse-redress_n_8074772.html?utm_hp_ref=australia

  13. Section 2 . . .

    Attacking Vietnam and Iraq didn’t work out too well for us but Syria will be different, right?
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/09/03/attacking-vietnam-and-iraq-didnt-work-out-so-well-us-syria-will-be-different-right
    Julia Baird has written a personal account with her sudden bout of cancer.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/was-it-cancer-julia-baird-on-getting-the-diagnosis-20150902-gjdusp.html
    John Warhurst on the captain’s picks that became casualties.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-captains-picks-whove-become-political-casualties-20150902-gjd5bk.html
    “View from the Street” brings us “Transfield vs God”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-transfield-versus-god-20150902-gjdp3z.html
    This cruise operator isn’t going to be bullied by Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cruise-operator-takes-aim-at-tony-abbott-over-shipping-and-border-policy-20150902-gjdo9s.html
    Big business wins ways to increase emissions under Abbott’s ridiculous Direct Action scheme.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/big-business-wins-ways-to-increase-emissions-under-abbott-government-climate-plan-20150902-gjdbtj.html
    Mark Kenny wonders whether Labor is running dead in Canning to save Abbott’s skin.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/is-labor-running-dead-in-canning-to-protect-tony-abbott-20150901-gjd1m5.html
    Stephen Koukoulas has a bit of a gloat over the latest tobacco consumption figures. He gets a bit personal with some of our favourites.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/tobacco-consumption-free-falls-after-plain-packaging-laws-introduced.html
    A new plan for the APS has been revealed. Stand by.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/new-plan-revealed-for-the-australian-public-service-20150901-gjd0ea.html
    This lawyer has accused the AFL of deceptive conduct during the Essendon saga. Could turn out to be quite interesting.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/2015/09/02/afl-accused-deceptive-conduct/

  14. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Tracking Abbott’s record – the August update.
    http://theaimn.com/tracking-abbotts-record-august-update/
    The silence of suicide.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/slapping-down-the-silence-of-suicide-20150902-gjdt9p.html
    In the budget flight with Alan Moir. One is filled with confidence!

    Ron Tandberg on Heydon’s decision.

    This effort of David Pope takes the cake! MUST SEE!

    Does this little cartoon from The Australian have a message for Abbott?

    David Rowe is suggesting Abbot and Hockey have lost the keys to the economy.

  15. If anything, I thought the media and opposition were far too soft on Hockey. These are bad economic figures. Is he seriously blaming the ABS for pointing out the facts?

    When you take into account population growth, these figures mean we are going backwards. The economy is growing more slowly than the workforce, and inflation. Real wages are shrinking, even though unemployment is still going up.

    Hockey’s claim about growth “within expectations” is also a lie. Quarterly growth of 0.2% would give an annual growth rate of 0.8%, less than half his own budget forecast.

  16. Morning all.

    Those revelations about the donations embarrassment in WA and people paying but not willing to be in the same room as Abbott are quite the thing.

    So on the nose, not even his own mob want to be seen with him!

  17. Apparently the Ecuadorians are getting a little desperate —

    [Leaked documents showed Ecuadorian diplomats were becoming increasingly concerned about the Australian’s behaviour and drew up a number of bizarre plans to allow him to leave the building without being arrested by waiting police officers.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/world/plan-to-eject-wikileaks-julian-assange-in-fancy-dress-rooftop-dash-revealed-20150901-gjczxa.html#ixzz3kcUOGRDp
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  19. BK

    Thanks. I agree with you on the nuclear waste dump in SA. We have some sparsely inhabited areas that are geologically ideal. If we are going to export uranium, we could take the waste back and ensure no plutonium goes into the weapons cycle either. The process is quite high tech these days, and could be done securely by transporting to the site by train. Somewhere north of Port Augusta would be ideal.

  23. [In the case of the Abbott government, frequent cock-ups, public disunity and scandals seem to drown out any hope of positive news coverage, or attempts to reset or steer the political debate.

    But more than this, voters seem to be increasingly unwilling to take at face value glib or wooden attempts to communicate.]

    In this (fairly typical) ‘we’re the media and we’ve done nothing wrong’ piece, this is the teller – it is the public who have rammed home their dissatisfaction with the present government, and the media are only just beginning to tune in to it.

    The media have not been calling Abbott out, or holding his government to account. They weren’t doing it when the Liberals were in opposition, and – as commentators here point out – anyone with half a brain (oh, I see the problem..) could see what kind of government Abbott would lead (OK, it’s worse than we expected, but that’s because we were trying to stay a little bit rational…)

    If it were up to the media, Bronnie would still be speaker, her behaviour dismissed as a forgiveable mistake. Heydon wouldn’t be under a cloud – because he’s a respected legal figure, he cancelled the speech as soon as he realised, and it’s some functionaries fault anyway (I do note the increasing tendency to blame Joe the Cameraman for these stuff ups, and the media’s acceptance that that’s OK, then).

    Social media is making traditional journalists look bad….but that isn’t the fault of social media.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/smart-governments-realise-they-must-find-new-ways-of-communicating-20150902-gjddf8.html#ixzz3kcY1Rsk9

  24. [20
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, September 3, 2015 at 7:57 am | PERMALINK
    BK

    Who do you think is stepping on Abbott in the Oz cartoon?
    ]

    That cartoon heads the Savva story. Murdoch is preparing the faithfull for the inevitable.

  25. Would like to see the full transcript, but this may be an early contender for gaffe-of-the-day by Abbott. The Death Cult IS certainly are a pack of shits, but comparing them with Nazis?

    [@pollietracker: Abbott on Jones: “The Nazis did terrible evil but they had sufficient sense of shame to try and hide it. These ppl boast about their evil.”]

  27. Re: worst government ever

    I’ve always cited the Cook government as a contender for this honour*. But I’m prepared to concede that Abbott has clearly surpassed this mark.

    * like many such historical comparisons in Aus politics I think you need to start post-Fusion. It’s a bit hard to say just how ‘good’ or ‘bad’ the short-lived Watson and Reid administrations, installed amidst parliamentary manoeuvring and removed before they could do much.

  31. [Hilarious stuff from Savva. Not even Liberal supporters can bring themselves to be in the same room as Abbott. Lol!]

    WA Liberal Party Fundraising Evening with Tony Abbott!

    – exclusive seat at Prime Minister’s table $10,000
    – seat at table near Prime Minister’s table $12,500
    – seat at table in dark corner away from Prime Minister $15,000
    – quiet night at home $20,000

  33. [Abbott government will be removed before it can do much.]

    But the Watson government was so short-lived that only six bills were passed on its watch.

    Oh, I see what you mean…

  34. I don’t like this. Why is the Opposition still backing the mine? Surely not for the myth of employment? And please can we have a plebiscite before any taxpayers’ money is spent?

    [The Queensland government, the federal government and the federal opposition are still backing the project but with the failure of the banks and now one of the major customers to back Adani, the future of the $16 billion coal mine is in further doubt.

    Also reported here last month, the federal government is believed to be considering funding the project with taxpayer money via a resource project fund.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/adani-loses-lg-as-big-customer-for-carmichael-mine-20150902-gjdu73.html#ixzz3kciOoTeG
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  38. Herald Sun front page today continues with its theme of ALP rorting for campaign in last year’s election. There is a call for an investigation. Sigh……

  39. victoria

    the Andrews government got itself elected despite sometimes quite active opposition from fairfax and NewsLtd. Its current lead in the polls has nothing to do with these papers. I doubt that their attacks on Andrews will have much effect, either.

  41. Hmm…a local action group has glowingly praised our local State MP for his ‘non partisan’ support for their cause. I had a look at the media release they were referring to and it’s a fairly straight out attack on the Andrews government.

    I wonder what their definition of partisan would be?

  44. zoomster/Gary

    I do understand that the influence of the papers is not instrumental in the popularity or otherwise
    I guess my anger is more likely directed to those within Labor who have sitrred up this issue

    jon Faine asked Vic. Transport minister about it about 15 minutes ago. She seemed quite uncomfortable at it

  45. victoria

    the problem is that there are many rules about electoral office expenditure which are honoured in the breach rather than in the observance (for example, the use of postal allowances).

    All sides do it, but all sides pretend not to. So if you’re an honest broker, and you’re questioned about it, yes, it gets embarrassing.

    (I’m not defending any of this behaviour, btw!)

  46. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/02/us-europe-migrants-idUSKCN0R21MK20150902

    [The migration crisis has confounded the EU, which is committed to the principle of accepting refugees fleeing real danger but has no mechanism to compel its 28 member states to share out the burden.

    EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker is expected to unveil proposals in an annual state-of-the-union address to the European parliament next week. Interior ministers hold an emergency meeting five days later.
    Germany has been the most welcoming, with plans to accept hundreds of thousands of refugees this year alone, adding 3.3 billion euros ($3.7 billion) to its welfare bill next year. A record 104,460 asylum seekers arrived in Germany last month, and more than 400,000 migrants have registered in a German computer system since the start of the year.

    But that has caused chaos for neighbours and threatened the Schengen system that abolished frontier checks among 26 European countries. Berlin says that despite its decision to accept asylum applications from Syrians who arrive elsewhere in the EU, other EU states must still demand migrants remain in the countries where they first register.

    At the opposite end of the spectrum of openness is Britain, which so far has accepted just 216 Syrian refugees under a scheme in partnership with the United Nations, as well as around 5,000 that managed to reach Britain and apply on their own.]

  48. Good Morning

    Briefly

    Its not a migration crisis in Europe despite what the media is saying. Its a refugee crisis.

    The media are avoiding saying that as that means the politics of lock them out is shown for the cruelty it is. Refugees means Europe would have to take responsibility for the fact it is Western nations bombing that is fuelling the flood.

    Glad Germany is doing the right thing. Right WIng Merkel seems to be on the same page Malcolm Fraser was about refugees.

  49. Abbott’s comment that Nazi’s had the sense to hide their atrocity shows where their own MO comes from. They are hiding Asylum Seeker atrocities, ‘on water’ stuff is censored and they are attempting, unsuccessfully, to censor any other mistake or nasty idea they have.

    This is classic Nazi stuff. The whole regime’s initial success involved censorship and controlling the ‘message’. It’s what despotic governments do.

    While I won’t say Abbott govt is despotic … I am sure some in their ranks would like it to be.

  50. I was reminded the other day that Dutton and Mirabella were the only two Coal MPs who refused to attend Rudd’s apology to the Indigenous people.

    Then Dutton is put in charge of Immigration. Does he want punish all brown people, or is he a natural sadist?

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