The two polls released this week, from ReachTEL and Essential Research, both landed bang on trend after bias adjustment, making for a dull old week in the world of BludgerTrack. All changes on the primary and two-party vote are minuscule, the seat projection is exactly as it was last week, and there are no new figures for the leadership ratings. The only thing that’s sort of worth mentioning is a vague stirring in the Palmer United vote, which the model records as peaking at 6.77% in July 2014, then suffering an uninterrupted decline to a low of 1.26% in July 2015, since which time it has recovered to its present level of 1.75%. Those craving a little more excitement from their polling are advised to look to the nearby posts on the Canning by-election and monthly Morgan state poll.
zoomster@23: the real problem with this article is that it talks about the symptoms but fails to diagnose the disease. This is a government totally devoid of policy substance. Abbott and co learnt completely the wrong lessons from Howard and concluded that they could get away with anything if they just spun a lot of nonsense about border security, death cults, etc.
But, unlike Abbott, Howard had some policy runs on the board. Despite gaffes on multiculturalism, he had contributed quite strongly to the economic policy debate from opposition (contrast that to Abbott’s three word slogans) and built up a lot of credibility early in his time as PM by taking tough stands on GST, the waterfront, the gun buy-back and saving private health insurance (whatever you might think of those policy positions, they were well-defined and a rational case could be made for them).
Howard’s period of peak spin re border security, etc came in the 2001-2005 period which, although he won two elections during it, was a weak period for him. He was extremely lucky in 2004 when, instead of returning the trusted Beazley, Labor turned to the green and politically inept Latham.
By 2006, Howard was in a similar position to that Abbott finds himself in now. Having won a convincing victory – including a rare and precious majority in both houses – Howard felt he could get away with anything. Work Choices was his version of the 2014 Budget: an ill considered, ideologically-driven reform with zero appeal to anyone outside the hard core supporter base. The dreadful public response was inevitable.
Howard, who is far smarter than his successors, quickly realised his error and flicked the switch back to proper policy development and (whatever you might think about the content) we got water reform, white papers on emissions trading, the Northern Territory intervention, etc.
And, the whole while, the economy was going gangbusters and Howard was able to hand out tax cuts and middle class welfare like it was going out of style.
And still he lost in 2007 and might well have lost to Beazley in 2004. Which I think indicates that the effectiveness of all of Howard’s spin, wedging etc has been vast overrated. It obviously helped him in 2001 but, on the whole, it was a defensive response coming from a position of weakness rather than an assertion of strength (which was sometimes the case with the political games played by Hawke and Keating in their prime).
Abbott never learnt this. He got lucky early on in his career with his ludicrous “don’t vote for the politician’s republic” nonsense and concluded that he could spin his way to success on anything. He’s now finding out that he was completely wrong about this: that policy substance really matters and that even the disengaged voters somehow pick this up. Indeed, they are arguably better at doing so than those who are obsessed with the minutiae of politics, who tend to be rusted-on to one side or the other and tend to be more concerned with the contest then the policy content.
I mix with a number of politically disengaged folk, and their main concerns at the moment seem to be about the state of the economy. They have noticed that the Government has completely abandoned its favourite cure-all of “reducing the deficit” and wonder what they’ve got to replace it.
The answer seems to be nothing much, apart from some focus group-driven palaver about “fighting for jobs and growth”. Plus a bit of greenie-bashing, which goes down ok with the swinging voters in Tassie where I live, but I doubt would be as effective on the mainland.
From my perspective, they are in terrible trouble: even worse than the polls are suggesting. They have two possible things that could help them: 1) replacing Abbott with Turnbull, whose popular appeal could just carry them over the line and 2) their ability (thanks in no small part to Rudd’s continuing undermining of his party on The Killing Season) to portray Bill Shorten as Macbeth. But they can’t do both: is, they can’t remove their own leader and then carry on about backstabbing on the Labor side.
So what to do? Switching to Morrison won’t help: he gives them neither 1) nor 2).
I think they’ll stick with Abbott and mount an all-out assault on Shorten. If you think about what their supporters in the media have got to throw at the man out of his past (knifing leaders, AWU stuff, and worse from further back), it’s going to be a profoundly ugly election. And yet, no matter how bad they can make Shorten look, the policy vacuum on the government side means that he might still win even by default.
Surely now that most reputable banks and today LG, have pulled away from Adani it is time for the Australian Govet and most certainly the QLD govt. to do so too. There is a huge and growing sovereign risk developing around this mine.
jenauthor
Very good point. I would say the AS would say its despotic. Rape as a punishment for daring to ask for help in securing safety. Done behind the cover of secrecy sounds pretty despotic to me.
Yes its not on the scale of North Korea or Nazi Germany. At least not yet. That does not change the fact it is despotic behaviour and they showed their true colours for any that doubted with the border force papers please attempt in Melbourne.
victoria
Robb is getting very frustrated that he is not being admired for his “great achievements”.
[48
guytaur
Good Morning
Briefly
Its not a migration crisis in Europe despite what the media is saying. Its a refugee crisis.
The media are avoiding saying that as that means the politics of lock them out is shown for the cruelty it is. Refugees means Europe would have to take responsibility for the fact it is Western nations bombing that is fuelling the flood.
Glad Germany is doing the right thing. Right WIng Merkel seems to be on the same page Malcolm Fraser was about refugees.]
There’s no need for semantics. We are witnessing the forced migration of displaced people, people fleeing for their lives.
We should take 100,000 a year…more is possible.
sprocket@25: that quote will give a lot of ammunition to the SH-Ys and Burnsides re Nauru.
victoria
Herald Sun front page today continues with its theme of ALP rorting for campaign in last year’s election. There is a call for an investigation. Sigh……
No pending elections in Victoria by any chance..
[49
jenauthor]
Despotic works for me. They traffic humans into captivity and lie about it. They take political hostages and keep them in a gulag. They market fear, shame and revenge. They are a truly decadent regime.
victoria@47
Robb was very shrill and deranged and appeared to be off his meds.
I was expecting the interview to be terminated by men in white coats dragging him off.
bemused
Another frustrated three-year-old? I’m looking forward to the next adult government.
meher
[I mix with a number of politically disengaged folk, and their main concerns at the moment seem to be about the state of the economy. ]
I was going to comment earlier that the reason that social media is driving opposition to the government is that the ordinarily disengaged voter is genuinely outraged by Abbott’s actions.
I maintain a number of facebook pages, and one reason for this is that I have a lot of people who I like to keep up with who aren’t at all interested in politics. Out of respect for them, I keep my political stuff on separate pages.
However, increasingly they’re the ones raising political issues, posting anti government memes (Bronnie and her helicopter got a very good run), ranting at government actions, etc.
When the normally disengaged ARE so engaged, in such a negative way, it’s hard to see anything that the government can do which will turn its fortunes around.
(Which on one level is fair enough, they don’t deserve to be saved….)
…Shorten has been accused of rape and corruption, without it apparently dinting Labor’s figures. It’s hard to see what more they can throw up against him, unless, of course, there’s an unexplained corpse lying around somewhere.
zoomster
Part of it is social media is telling people what is happening. Just look at the Gosford Anglican Church signs being shared around.
Before social mediat the only people that would know about it would be the people of Gosford. Now the whole country sees those messages.
That is just one example of how information is spreading. I think it shows Australians are not naturally right wing or left wing but have not been provided the information to make proper judgements. Social media is going some way to fixing that.
[59
bemused
victoria@47
Andrew Robb was just on ABC774. Boy did he to town on team Labor and the CFMEU re the Chfta.
Robb was very shrill and deranged and appeared to be off his meds.]
ChAFTA is being very adroitly handled by Shorten. He’s positioned Labor to be in favour of both protecting jobs and promoting trade. This certainly registers with working people. He has chosen to open ground between Labor and Abbott on a basic issue – protecting jobs. Labor have found a natural point of resistance. The more the LNP attack them over ChAFTA, the more they will focus voter attention on Labor’s totem – on jobs.
I’ve been trying to get the message across that there is a larger issue too – the issue of indentures. These are inseparable. I think a number of people in WA Labor are starting to agree with me.
Labor gets it
Commonsense can go a long way.
@AustralianLabor: Sharing private sexual images of women without their consent — revenge porn — should be against the law. http://t.co/kRkODpq2qs #auspol
“@ABCNews24: LIVE NOW: Immigration Minister Peter Dutton is speaking about a police operation in Brisbane http://t.co/FlRWJAqVJo
meher baba@51
Really?
Unfortunately for Shorten, there was some TV footage of him working the phones, 2 at once in fact, on the night of the coup.
That is far more effective than any comments by Rudd or anyone else and I have no doubt the Libs will use it.
67
bemused
Fortunately for the country Bill Shorten can count.
Watching that ABC TV feed: Dutton is mouth-breathing.
zoomster@62. They can certainly bring back the rape. They don’t need to say anything about it directly, just give media space to the alleged victim.
The Commander beside him (or whatever he is) keeps taking deep sighing breaths. 😆
k17 @ 43
[Fascinating article from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on carbon capture storage]
It is indeed.
Oh, lucky Canning. Dutton will be visiting you.
“@abcnews: #BREAKING: New Zealand suspends aid to #Nauru’s justice sector citing diminishing rule of law”
[Oh, lucky Canning. Dutton will be visiting you.]
Things just get better and better for Hastie, first Abbott, now Dutton. He must wish he was back in the relative safety of Afghanistan. At least the IEDs there are set by the other side.
bemused@67. It’s amusing how you can believe any crap Rudd says but you won’t believe Shorten when he says he was talking to his kid’s teacher. There is no other evidence that Shorten was a significant plotter against Rudd in 2010: the whole thing has always been based on TV footage of him talking on the phone outside a restaurant (an unlikely choice of location for plotting to overthrow a PM). He could have been taking to anybody about anything.
On the other hand, it was entirely Rudd’s choice to disclose the existence, and content, of his “secret” late-night meeting with Shorten on the evening of the mid-winter ball. Much though I dislike Rudd, I do acknowledge him as being highly intelligent and someone who never does anything without a strong reason.
Hockey has been talking down the economy using unnecessary hyperbole for years, its no wonder that over time his predictions would finally come true. Is it karma that it actually happened on his watch?
He & Abbott showed the ALP no mercy regarding the economy during the GFC, no excuses he said, I hope he realises that many of us will judge him according to his own articulated standards.
meher baba@76
I don’t have to believe anything Rudd says. That footage went to air at the time and will remain a powerful image in the minds of many. It will be used.
Footage of that idiot Howes may also be used, including him shooting his mouth off.
bemused
Not going to make a difference. Either Abbott will get dumped which means they will not be able to run the footage without people thinking of the LNP.
Or Abbott will stay and as he is so bad it will make no difference to the polls.
bemused: I completely agree re Howes I reckon his self-promoting behaviour around the events of 2010 (with which he had relatively little to do) did more long-term damage to Gillard than even the leaks to Laurie Oakes. The only good news for Labor there is that Howes has now largely distanced himself from the party.
Shorten’s one mistake was in 2013, when he held a totally unnecessary press conference to announce that he was switching his support to Rudd. A case of the “look at me” impulse (always very strong in Shorten) overcoming his judgement.
Would be REALLYYYYYYY interesting if Canning so close it takes weeks for the counting to confirm a winner. Abbott would be flapping in the wind like in 2010!
k17 @ 43
[Fascinating article from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on carbon capture storage]
The biggest problem with carbon capture and storage has been the energy requirement to make the carbon dioxide liquid and pumpable. When you add on the cost of the extraction infrastructure, it is hard to see it being competitive with renewables.
However this article raises a tantalising prospect – that of going carbon negative when biomass is used as a fuel.
Basically CO2 is extracted from the air by a crop which is then burned to create energy and the CO2 sequestered underground.
With appropriate subsidies, this could be a real winner.
I don’t think Abbotts fate depends on Canning. It will just be another bad sign with the Libs losing margin or an unlikely win for Labor.
The Libs have no replacement who is acceptable to the internal players and the general voters.
Liberal Party welcome to Tony’s RMS Titanic.
guytaur at 48
“Glad Germany is doing the right thing. Right WIng Merkel seems to be on the same page Malcolm Fraser was about refugees.”
Oh to have a leader like Merkel (standard human imperfections notwithstanding) Australia can only dream.
Lizzie at 50
“I was reminded the other day that Dutton and Mirabella were the only two Coal MPs who refused to attend Rudd’s apology to the Indigenous people.
Then Dutton is put in charge of Immigration. Does he want punish all brown people, or is he a natural sadist?”
A perfect example of a thug promoted multiple levels above his intellectual or emotional capacity.
Dutton getting seriously unhinged
[@BevanShields: IMO Peter Dutton was sailing very close to the wind in that interview in suggesting Fairfax journalists are ok with people drowning at sea]
Ms Savva’s story of the recent Abbott fundraiser in WA brought to my mind this exchange from many years ago:
Fritz Kreisler, violinist (to Mrs. Cornelius Vanderbilt, wealthy socialite): “My fee [to play at your party] is $18,000.
Mrs Cornelius Vanderbilt’s reply: “That’s agreeable, but I hope you understand that you should not mingle with my guests.”
Fritz Kreisler’s reply: “Oh! Well, in that case, my fee is only $500.”
sprocket
[ IMO Peter Dutton was sailing very close to the wind in that interview in suggesting Fairfax journalists are ok with people drowning at sea]
Dutton obviously feeling under threat.
jenauthor@81
A truly evil thought. I like it! 👿
sprocket at #86
I much prefer the honesty and directness of your observation rather than the coy and diplomatic ‘suggestion’ of Shields who is too…what… scared? .. to be honest and direct in his comment.
Ctar1 @ 83: The important dynamic to bear in mind is that the closer we get to the three year point and the election then due, the more likely it is that Mr Abbott’s replacement, if he’s replaced, will be Mr Turnbull: because at that time, the backbenchers will be in panic, and will want to go with the candidate who has the greatest popularity (even if some of them feel like holding their noses when voting for him). The won’t want to go for Mr Morrison that late, because he won’t have time to establish his credentials with the electorate. (See Dr Brent’s comments on Ms Gillard’s rush to the election in 2010.)
So if Mr Morrison wants to be PM in the short term, with a prospect of winning an election held on time, he really needs to move earlier rather than later.
Also, to expunge the memories of Mr Abbott would require, perhaps, not just a change at the top, but also a few months of the “good government” we’ve not seen so far.
To me, this suggests that the right wing of the party might well decide to throw its weight behind Mr Morrison if Canning is lost, as a way of blocking both Mr Shorten and Mr Turnbull.
bemused @ 89: Easily arranged. If the election is at all close, the ALP scrutineers could slow things right down, as Mr Palmer’s people did in his seat in 2013.
NZ suspends aid to Nauru:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-03/new-zealand-suspends-aid-to-nauru-citing-diminishing-rule-of-law/6746202
Meanwhile Australia is…
[ IMO Peter Dutton was sailing very close to the wind in that interview in suggesting Fairfax journalists are ok with people drowning at sea ]
Great way to get fairfax on side as well. Not.
Send potato head out more often.
mb @ 51
[I think they’ll stick with Abbott and mount an all-out assault on Shorten. If you think about what their supporters in the media have got to throw at the man out of his past (knifing leaders, AWU stuff, and worse from further back), it’s going to be a profoundly ugly election. And yet, no matter how bad they can make Shorten look, the policy vacuum on the government side means that he might still win even by default.]
The main reason they’ll stick with Abbott, if that happens, is because they cannot agree with the alternatives. I found the story about Labor’s alleged tanking in Canning utterly bizarre in that it was sourced from the Liberals. In essence, the Liberals (who were at no significant pains to deny the story) are saying that their own leader is so appalling Labor will pass up the opportunity to win a seat in order to keep the PM in place.
I agree that the Coalition have put all their political eggs in the one basket by aiming to win the next election by traducing Bill Shorten’s character. They clearly think that the electorate is so shallow they will treat the election as nothing more than a beauty contest. I think they are very wrong. Even though we talk about leaders as though this is a presidential race, we still look at the parties, their performance and their policies and use the leaders as a reflection.
And in this regard Abbott’s Coalition are blind to their own imperfections. They still think they are beautiful – hence the complaints about every news outlet but News Corpse in portraying them as otherwise. In an election campaign though, Labor will go all out to remind the public about how bad the Coalition has been and how utterly untrustworthy they have been and, worst of all, how flaky they have been on key economic policy.
Indeed, the very worst thing they could do is to start promising tax cuts again, while having blown out the debt and deficit from what they had declared was a budget emergency. Labor won’t go down the line of promising tax cuts. Rather it will question whether the Liberals could ever be trusted to deliver them, given how they have blown out the budget but are pretending they haven’t and pointing to all the other things they lied about – like submarines and Gonski and health. Indeed, Labor will not try to gild the lily, but rather present a reasonably dry approach to government with limited sweeteners and a big picture vision.
While I might be biased here, I still think that for those who are not obsessively fearful of unions and union power, the electorate (by which I mean the swinging voters) will be less concerned about a politically dodgy Bill Shorten than by a patently incompetent and utterly untrustworthy Tony Abbott, or whoever the Liberals will replace him with in extremis.
CTar1: I agree. As I said in my long post above, I think they have to stick with Abbott and try to run a very negative campaign. That’s going to be very difficult for them given that they have failed to gain the respect of the public. Come the election campaign, a reprise of the negatives of the R-G-R period will get some traction with voters. More, in my view, than a switch to a fresh start under Turnbull. Let alone Morrison, who would a fresh start without the fresh bit: more of the same, but with even less charisma.
Apropos of nothing, I think Morrison needs quite a few more years to build up his image and turn his total lack of charisma into a plus, in the way Howard did. Although Morrison also needs to soften his hard edge a great deal more than Howard needed to. I actually don’t believe Morrison is actually nasty; rather, he is a bit obsessive and tunnel-visioned. But appearance is everything in politics. (Eg, most of you would probably think that Pyne is a much nastier bloke than Hockey. But I know from personal contact that Pyne is a rather nice bloke who likes to bung on a different image for the cameras and in parliament. Hockey, on the other hand, is said by those who know him well to be a rather condescending sort of person who has the contempt that some self-made people have for those who they don’t see as having tried hard enough. Except of course that it wasn’t Joe, but his father and his missus who are genuinely self-made.)
TROG – Thanks. Very interesting.
briefly @ 64
I think the shriller that the Government gets over ChAFTA (and the more the media use selected sound bites of Labor leaders appearing to support it in its entirety) the more opposition will bite. A lot of people are sufficiently cynical about political leaders as to take the view that the more they want us to do something, the more there is to worry about. It only takes a relatively small voice of opposition to unsettle the punters in these situations. Which is why it is so difficult to get referendums up.
The CFMEU campaign is quite powerful. Playing the racist card, like the government has done, only makes the public more concerned as many people, rightly or wrongly, see playing the racist card as a way of avoiding dealing with the issues that concern the punters.
In this regard, Shorten and Federal Labor are handling this quite well by simply raising concerns, rather than doing a Tony Abbott Henny Penny performance. Indeed, it is the news media and the Government who are doing a Henny Penny performance – which is why the public are worried. And in particular, those sectors who were once Howard’s battlers and now Tony’s tradies.
Audio of the interview with Faine and Andrew Robb would better illustrate his shrillness, but here is twitterfeed of same
TPOF: if the forthcoming election is to be a “beauty contest” as you put it, then God help us! Tanya P and Larissa Waters are both rathet cute, I guess Turnbull is ok (although he has a rather odd, rectangular sort of head). Julie B is at least well turned-out. But as for most of the rest of the frontbenchers on either side… !!