The latest Newspoll in The Australian has is unchanged on last fortnight with Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (steady), 38% for the Coalition (down one) and 13% for the Greens (steady). The poll also reflects Ipsos in having Bill Shorten bouncing back, with his approval up five points to 34% and disapproval down five to 52%. Tony Abbott is down three to 30% and up two to 63%, and Shorten has also taken the lead on preferred prime minister, which goes from 38-38 a fortnight ago to 40-35 in Shorten’s favour.
Also out today is a Roy Morgan poll which has Labor coming off its six-month high a fortnight ago, their primary vote down one to 36% with the Coalition up two to 38.5%, the Greens down 1.5% to 14%, and Palmer United up half a point to 1.5%. Using previous election preferences, this translates as a modest shift in Labor’s lead from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5. However, the shift is bigger on respondent-allocated preferences after an aberrant result last week, with Labor’s lead coming in from 57-43 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a sample of 3174.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a contrary turn against Labor for the second week in a row, putting them down a point on both two-party preferred, which they now lead 51-49, and the primary vote, which is at 37%. This is due to a particularly bad result for Labor in last week’s sample, with the more recent week’s result having improved for them. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 41% and 10%, while Palmer United is down one to 1%. Further findings:
• Same-sex marriage is supported by 60% and opposed by 31%, with 22% wanting the matter decided by parliament and 66% favouring a national vote. In the latter case, 35% think it should happen before the next election, 11% after, and 43% on the day itself.
• Thirty-eight per cent of respondents nominate that Dyson Heydon has a conflict of interest as the trade union royal commissioner and should step down, against 25% who favour the contrary option and 37% who say they don’t know. Thirty-nine per cent consider the royal commission “a political attack on Labor and the unions”, with 39% opting for the alternative of “a legitimate investigation of union practices”.
• Fifty per cent express support for the Climate Change Authority’s recommendation of a reduction of carbon emissions of 40% to 60% by 2030, with 23% favouring the government’s proposed reduction of 26% to 28%, and 10% rejecting the need for any reduction.
@bemused/1100
Have I annoyed you more yet? 😀
zoidlord@1101
I don’t handle “zoid-speak” too well.
[My head is still spinning from the extreme contortions involved.]
I don’t know why. a) this was always going to happen, viz a viz R*dd’s own come to jesus moment, offered only once it was clear his whiteanting had thoroughly trashed the Labor leadership, but b) Gillard is no longer in parliament so who cares what she thinks.
There is also c) that she was the first Labor leader to back a conscience vote on the issue for MPs, and to support marriage equality being adopted into party policy, which are arguably more substantial than her own personal vote in the Caucus.
[I think Anna Palaszczuk did an unbelievably good job leading her team to victory and she has subsequently performed very well indeed as Premier.
None of which has anything to do with her being female and everything to do with being competent.]
I would say that Labor’s victory here was due to Annastacia Palaszczuk being competent compared to Campbell Newman (though literally anything is competent compared to Campbelll Newman) but otherwise I agree completely with what you say about Annastacia Palaszczuk.
(This whole Rudd/Gillard cult-accusation thing some people have going on here seems to make absolutely no sense… I don’t think I’ve seen one poster here praising the Sun for there immortal God, Ruddha/Gillah.)
zoid:
Surely you’ve worked out by now that there is nothing to be gained by encouraging the bully troll.
TAx reform Mk. 2
[Is this the New New Gillard or the fake as shit Gillard we’ve all come accustomed to? I’m thinking the latter.]
So the trolls turn up at last!
Sorry True Blue Idiot (and the rest of the idiots who are joining in, from both sides of politics), but Julia Gillard did the hard yards, and paid the price.
She’s history now.
Joining in kicking her head in won’t affect anything in the slightest.
It’s not going to turn her supporters into Rudd Fanatics, nor turn those who have deserted Abbott back into Liberal Luvvies again.
Just leave it. It’s done and dusted. Julia Gillard is no more, politically speaking. What she thinks, says or does has no bearing or impact on current events or trends.
It’s over.
Millennial@1104
@confessions/1105
I can’t help it! I like to tease trolls!
zoidlord@1109
You have a sense of humour too. That is good. 😆
What’s the betting Julia Gillard is lining herself up for some plum job in academia or at an NGO or the like – and needs to scrape away this inconvenient bit of baggage from the past in order to please her new masters.
Milennial @ 1088
Yep. In the 43rd Parliament. Where Labor had a free vote and the Liberals were required to toe the Abbott line.
TrueBlueAussie #1098
No, you’re confusing hypocrisy with repentance.
Gillard would be a hypocrite if she was currently criticizing the Abbott Government’s stance against Marriage Equality while being against Marriage Equality in the present or future.
However, she has since publicly announced that she is for Marriage Equality, and acknowledging that her past position and actions were wrong, thus what Gillard is doing is repentance.
(Albeit she acknowledged that her past position was wrong is the most patronizing way possible, but she acknowledged it nonetheless.)
Has Gillard ever taken the blame for any of her failings?
Is it so beyond her to say… I got it wrong, I’m responsible and I’m sorry?
Why is she such a pathetic human being? Why does she blame Abbott and the Coalition for herself voting against gay marriage?
It’s ALWAYS someone elses fault with her. ALWAYS. She has never, ever admitted she has got anything wrong.
Seriously… search high and low and try and find 1… just 1 time when she has admitted she got something wrong.
God she is pathetic. Absolutely pathetic.
[What’s the betting Julia Gillard is lining herself up for some plum job in academia or at an NGO or the like – and needs to scrape away this inconvenient bit of baggage from the past in order to please her new masters.]
Would anyone care?
This is a fantasy world.
[“However, she has since publicly announced that she is for Marriage Equality, and acknowledging that her past position and actions were wrong, thus what Gillard is doing is repentance.”]
Horse Radish!
She blames the Coalition cos “she thought they’d vote for it in the future” or some shit.
Give me the quote where she says she was WRONG! It doesn’t exist, she never admits to anything!
[Joining in kicking her head in won’t affect anything in the slightest.]
It does make a difference BB. It takes the pressure off Captain Chaos and his ludicrous proposal for an unnecessary referendum sometime in the next century. And there are people here who would rather bash Julia Gillard than press the crazy Captain. Just like there are plenty in the union movement who would rather undermine Bill Shorten for some trite payback, even if it means having a virulently anti-worker (and especially anti-union) Coalition back in power.
It’s no surprise that the only fish the Heydon Commission have landed so far have been apparent rogues from the CFMEU and the accidental harpooning of Kathy Jackson. They give Heydon, Stoljar and Abbott credit that none of them deserve.
bemused #1108
Yeah, but I’ve followed this blog like a box-set addict for the last 2 and a half years and I’ve never seen a poster display the type of cult-like behaviour that you are describing.
Hey what if Gillard’s article is actually part of a ritual to raise the dead.
Boo!
[What’s the betting Julia Gillard is lining herself up for some plum job in academia or at an NGO or the like – and needs to scrape away this inconvenient bit of baggage from the past in order to please her new masters.]
She already has such a job and has had for a while now.
The marriage equality reality is with the current parliament. Whatever the position of previous PMs matters not a jot.
TrueBlueAussie
I think she did it just before the last time you admitted you got something wRONg .
alias @ 1111
It has almost certainly escaped your attention, but Julia Gillard has a plum job at an international NGO. She does not need to reposition to get another.
Also, the key issue of her speech was not a change in her own views which, while welcome, mean absolutely nothing, but the cogent points she makes about why a plebiscite, let alone a referendum, is a ludicrously inappropriate way to deal with a matter far less significant than many that have been decided by Parliament. And also quite a few that have not even gone to Parliament, but have been decided by the Executive.
fess @ 1120
Clearly we were thinking along exactly the same lines. Which is not surprising because it is bloody obvious to those who are not blinkered by old prejudices.
fess @ 1120
Clearly we were thinking along exactly the same lines. Which is not surprising because it is bloody obvious to those who are not blinkered by old prejudices.
[It takes the pressure off Captain Chaos and his ludicrous proposal for an unnecessary referendum sometime in the next century.]
Except it doesn’t really, because Captain Chaos’ Cabinet is apparently divided on the issue of a free vote on SSM. While Turnbull is speaking out of both sides of his mouth, and JBishop tries her best to appear ‘mum’ on the subject, there are the Cabinet bovver boys like Abetz strong-arming his colleagues into letting the issue go, or Pyne dilly-dallying in the hope it all just goes away quick smart.
Sucks to be a Liberal MP at the moment, I’m sure. 🙂
TrueBlueAussie #1116
OK. This is the best I could find.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-26/gillard-says-she-supports-same-sex-marriage-condemns-referendum/6727638
“I am keenly aware my position was idiosyncratic…
…given the 1970s feminist in me saw much to be concerned with from a gender perspective with traditional marriage, I thought the better approach was not to change the old but to create something new…
…in my time post-politics, as key countries have moved to embrace same-sex marriage, I have identified that my preferred reform direction was most assuredly not winning hearts and minds.”
Yeah. Like I said, as patronizing as can be.
TPOF:
🙂
Millennial@1118
Then your powers of observation are not as good as you seem to think.
TrueBlueAussi #1114
Well, there was thing a few weeks ago…
[<b<Julia Gillard apologies to Xenophon
Former prime minister Julia Gillard has apologized to Senator Nick Xenophon for a claim she made about his university days in her political memoir, My Story.
“I am happy to apologise because I accept my recollection of the full details of this event was flawed,” Ms Gillard said in a statement on Thursday.]
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/08/06/julia-gillard-apologises-xenophon
[““I am keenly aware my position was idiosyncratic… “]
That’s not “i was wrong”
[“…given the 1970s feminist”]
Blame the feminists!
[“I have identified that my preferred reform direction was most assuredly not winning hearts and minds.””]
That’s not “i was wrong”
She is incapable of saying the words. She must and always will blame someone else. It’s just the way she is.
@TBA/1114
Has Tony been blamed for any of his failings?
OK yes it has escaped my attention that Julia Gillard has a plum job .. is this it? If so, I feel somewhat comforted in the fact that no one has ever heard of it, even though it sounds undoubtedly noble in its pursuits.
“Former Prime Minister Julia Gillard has been appointed Chair of The Global Partnership for Education (GPE), an international public/private partnership devoted to providing education to the world’s poorest children.”
Nevertheless, I’ll lay London to a brick that she has something more prestigious – something everyone has heard of – in her sights, and that this embarrassing backdown is part of the job application. Watch this space and tell me I’m wrong in six months.
[ Just like there are plenty in the union movement who would rather undermine Bill Shorten for some trite payback, even if it means having a virulently anti-worker (and especially anti-union) Coalition back in power.]
Indeed, we have a few of them here in fact.
Surely it’s about time for everyone who wants to see the end of this government to start focussing on the real battle ahead and forget the irrelevancies of the past.
@TBA/1130
Sounds more like Tony Abbott actually, which is why the constant death cults, union corruption rants.
Then your powers of observation are not as good as you seem to think.
I’m not sure about that. Two of the key traits of cult-like devotion is that the cultist talk with in a bizarre, narrowly-defined words and phrases within the English language, and that they always refer to the subject of their devotion as a parental, idolatrous or holistic figure.
I don’t think I’ve seen any poster display either of those traits.
Then your powers of observation are not as good as you seem to think.
I’m not sure about that. Two of the key traits of cult-like devotion is that the cultist talk with in a bizarre, narrowly-defined words and phrases within the English language, and that they always refer to the subject of their devotion as a parental, idolatrous or holistic figure.
I don’t think I’ve seen any poster display either of those traits.
[Is it so beyond her to say… I got it wrong, I’m responsible and I’m sorry?]
She has said this many, many times. Read her book. It’s a pretty frank self-assessment. Warts and all. Plenty of mea culpas and taking on of the blame. Enough for everyone, even The Idiot.
I really don’t know why The Idiot is so upset. Gillard is gone. She can’t possibly affect present politics. Abbott and Rudd defeated her – rightly or wrongly, I leave that for others to argue nowadays. Getting stuck into her character, or her views or her political shifts in position (call them “Backflips” if you like) is not going to change one vote, or even make anyone even *think* about changing their vote.
So why the angst?
Or is it just a hankering for the good old days of Abbott the preener, triumphant over a mere woman?
Sorry that should be:
bemused #1128
[Then your powers of observation are not as good as you seem to think.]
I’m not sure about that. Two of the key traits of cult-like devotion is that the cultist talk with in a bizarre, narrowly-defined words and phrases within the English language, and that they always refer to the subject of their devotion as a parental, idolatrous or holistic figure.
I don’t think I’ve seen any poster display either of those traits.
[“”I am happy to apologise because I accept my recollection of the full details of this event was flawed,” Ms Gillard said in a statement on Thursday.”]
That’d be the one where she blamed the university for not keeping 30 Year old records for her lies about Xenohpon just before she was about to have her arse sued for defamation would it not?
Millennial@1136
It has certainly been toned down from what it was a couple of years ago. I think calling it out for what it was has had an effect.
No, Bushfire Bill, the angst, if anything, is driven by the fact that Julia Gillard behaved like a complete &*(%@-wit in the leadup to the coup of June 2010, as the “Killing Season” amply documented, and that as a very direct consequence we have this total nutcase Abbott as PM now.
@TBA/1139
How many times Abbott has lied this week?
Time to call for Billy Goat Gruff.
lol. Sure, bemused, you’ve changed the world.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2015/08/poll-roundup-behind-longer-than-howard.html
Poll Roundup: Behind Longer Than Howard.
2PP 53.1 to ALP (-0.3)
I’m off to feel the pulse of the nation* in the critical marginal seat of Parkes tomorrow, so might not be on here much the next few days. 🙂
(* actually not real reason for going)
Happiness
[Turnbull is a narcissistic egomaniac genius…..thats the difference!]
As shown by his adroit handling of Godwin Gretch.
Jackol@1144
More correctly, a miniscule and insignificant corner of it. But I was not alone in calling out the cultist nonsense, alias is doing a good job tonight.
[Or is it just a hankering for the good old days of Abbott the preener, triumphant over a mere woman?]
Yeah, I think that’s it. That cartoon depicting Dutton laying out Triggs in the laneway then getting into a car laden with Abbott, Pyne, Abetz and co could’ve so easily depicted Gillard in the laneway and Bovver Boy Abbott stood over her with sleeves rolled up.
Some are clearly not feeling the new world where their bovver boy is being rejected by Australians.
Billy Goat Gruff.
You sure weren’t. You had a little cadre of fellow travelers. Almost like a cult really.